Carlos Lee Trade Possibilities
There are all sorts of reasons to expect Carlos Lee to get traded sometime between now and the July deadline.
1. He’s an impending free agent making $8.5MM.
2. Doug Melvin is a savvy GM, and knows when to sell high (see Dan Kolb).
3. The Brewers have an able replacement left fielder in Corey Hart, who is projected by PECOTA to hit .272/.337/.475 in 2006. Lee is projected by the same system to hit .282/.347/.506. Accepting that difference in production would allow Melvin to net a top prospect or two.
4. Lee may be overrated in some circles because of his 114 RBIs. According to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Lee was worse offensively in 2005 than guys like Emil Brown and Raul Ibanez.
The Brewers will have plenty of trade partners for Lee. Phil Rogers mentions both the White Sox and Cubs by name. Here’s my own analysis of the possibilities.
Red Sox – If the Sox end up trading Manny for young players, Lee could fill the power void with 35 HR.
Blue Jays – Ricciardi dealt amicably with Melvin for Lyle Overbay, and the Jays don’t have much going on in LF. If they’re hovering near contention in July it makes a ton of sense.
White Sox – I don’t see it. They didn’t part on the best of terms, and the Sox have good outfield depth. I’m for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench, but I don’t think reacquiring Lee would be the first choice.
Angels – It would involve shuffling outfielders around, but Lee would be a more reasonable addition than Manny. Maybe the Halos would consider dealing Dallas McPherson for him.
Braves – The Braves have definitely dealt for big-name sluggers in the past as opposed to acquiring them via free agency. J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Fred McGriff come to mind. They have the stacked minor league system to get it done.
Cubs – Both clubs might be contending in the Central division, so it makes a trade less likely. Back in January, though, Sun-Times writer Greg Couch proposed the Cubs try to entice the Brewers with both Felix Pie and Rich Hill.
Cardinals – They have the need, but the same division thing would have to prevent a trade.
My ranking of the most likely suitors: Blue Jays, Braves, Angels, Cubs. I’d like to see your thoughts in the comments.
Angels Sign Weaver?
I’m not entirely familiar with the Halos Heaven blog quite yet, but the author is saying Jeff Weaver signing with the Angels is a done deal. In their words: "the ink is dry."
Also, check out the latest Manny rumor in the same post. While not quite the polar opposite of supposed offer that heavily favored the Red Sox, this one would definitely be a win for Los Angeles. But if the Angels were willing to take on Manny’s entire contract, an offer of Escobar, Shell, and Rivera plus one top Angels prospect seems equitable.
Odds And Ends: Abreu, Manny
In very minor news, ESPN is reporting that the Cubs have signed righthanded pitcher Jason Simontacchi to a minor league deal. He was slightly less than terrible for Triple A Memphis last year and saw 15 ugly innings in the Majors. He’s not young, but did win 11 games for the Cards back in ’02.
Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News acknowledged the Abreu to the White Sox trade rumor, branding it an "Internet rumor." Fair enough; I could’ve sworn Howard Eskin started this one though. Regardless, I think we should start referring to rumors from the Philadelphia Daily News as simply "newspaper rumors." Why try to identify the source? Too much work.
According to Conlin, "officials from both teams deny any such talks." OK. But I promise that the White Sox have interest in Abreu. Whether they have the goods for it, I’m not sure. While Conlin indicates the White Sox would be settling by adding Gavin Floyd to the deal, my sources and most Phillies fans feel that Floyd as a throw-in is overpayment by the Phils.
If this newspaper rumor about Manny Ramirez is to be believed, the Red Sox have no concept of trading players for equal value. They might as well have asked for John Lackey and Vlad while they were at it.
Choices Narrowing For Weaver
Back on January 12th, we were able to reason our way towards determining six possible suitors for Jeff Weaver. Here was the list:
"In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels."
Since then, the Orioles traded for Kris Benson and the Cubs signed a much cheaper option in Wade Miller. The remaining four can be re-ranked as Angels, Cardinals, Mets, Astros. You can almost cross Houston off the list; there hasn’t been talk of them pursuing Weaver as Jose Contreras remains high on their wish list.
The Los Angeles Times reports that the Angels may offer Weaver a one year contract with an option for 2007. It’d be wise for the Angels to lock in the innings eater after losing Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd, who combined for 381 innings in 2005.
I’d put the Angels chances of signing Weaver at 75%. The Mets really aren’t looking to take on Weaver; he may not perform under the spotlight again and isn’t significantly better than Benson (he’s maybe about one win better). The Cards would be mad to add Weaver to a rotation of Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan, and Sidney Ponson/Anthony Reyes. The club is wavering on starting Reyes, and he’s already better than Weaver. Weaver is barely an improvement over Marquis, so dealing him and signing Weaver would be a curious decision. I suppose it could happen if the right outfield bat came along in return for Marquis though.
Angels Should Pursue Javy Lopez
Javy Lopez and his agent have been making a stir lately, pushing for a contract extension or a trade. Lopez is in the last year of a three-year deal, and will make $8.5MM in 2006.
A recent Baltimore Sun article mentioned:
"The Orioles have had some discussions with teams about Lopez, including a potential trade for Angels first baseman/outfielder Darin Erstad during the winter meetings, but the Angels weren’t interested in making the deal."
In between the flurry of rumors back in December, this is one I missed. The Angels should not have dismissed this trade so quickly.
Erstad makes the same salary as Lopez in 2006, so that’s a wash. The team plans on employing him in center field in 2006, and another season of .273/.325/.371 wouldn’t look quite so bad with the position change. Still, the average American League center fielder hit .268/.322/.407 in 2005, so his bat’s not exactly an asset. His defenders will point to his glovework; Erstad won a much-deserved Gold Glove playing center field in 2002.
But will Erstad be the same center fielder he was four years ago? Highly unlikely. My guess is that he’ll play average defense at this point at best. Chone Figgins would be a better overall solution in center field. That would allow Dallas McPherson to get another crack at third base, where he’s still primed to hit 30 HR in a full season. The Angels would upgrade significantly behind the plate by bringing in Lopez, as Jeff Mathis could learn on the job as a backup. Acquiring Lopez for Erstad would be an excellent move for the Angels.
The Bengie Molina Sweepstakes
Bengie Molina has strangely emerged as neglected free agent, facing very little interest from teams and a possible one year deal. Coming off a career best .295/.336/.446 line, this is a curious situation.
Molina will be entering his age 32 season in 2006, and I’ve projected him at .289 with 17 HR next season. While his defense is no great shakes, one would think a few clubs would come out ahead in offering him a reasonable two-year pact. However, once you factor in defense, Molina ranked 15th among catchers in 2005 despite his solid showing at the plate. He presents very little improvement for most ballclubs, and that seems to explain the lack of interest.
Should the Blue Jays pursue Molina? Probably not. He was only marginally better than Gregg Zaun in 2005, and he’ll definitely cost more. I understand the idea is to platoon the players and have a sweet tandem like the Reds, but is Molina really going to want to do that?
Honestly, these are the teams that I think stand to gain at least one win by adding Molina:
Royals
Angels
Rockies
Padres
The Royals already tossed their free cash at other marginal free agents, although Molina would’ve made some sense if the club is ready to give up on John Buck. Most likely, they’ll keep Buck around longer than they should in order to pretend they didn’t get hosed in the Beltran trade.
The Angels really should’ve tried harder to bring Molina back. Jeff Mathis is a huge question mark on a team for which a win or two could determine whether they make the playoffs.
The Rockies don’t really have a good reason to go out and sign a free agent. But if I were Molina’s agent, I’d campaign hard to get him to Coors for a season. He could play there for $4MM, hit 20 HR, and get that big deal he was looking for. It’s been done before.
The Padres seem content with Doug Mirabelli and Dave Ross, who are both backups. Given their lousy division and legitimate shot at the playoffs, I’m surprised they haven’t chased Molina a bit more.
The Dodgers would probably be the best fit, and they have inquired about Molina. It would be a logical solution to bring Molina in for a year before the team evaluates the readiness of Dioner Navarro and Russell Martin.
Jeff Weaver: Last Man Standing
I ranked Jeff Weaver 18th overall on my Top 50 Free Agents for 2006, and he’s easily the best remaining starting pitcher (Roger Clemens aside). After Weaver the dropoff is huge – it’s Kevin Brown or Lima Time. Kind of remains me of this, a memory I’ve been trying to repress for ten years.
For a while it seemed like Weaver was being strangely undervalued in the market. He’s a very dependable starter and he’s still 29. He’s thrown 444 innings over the past two seasons with the Dodgers, compiling a 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.3 K/9 during that span.
Ken Rosenthal cleared this muddy picture for us yesterday after speaking with Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras. We now know that Weaver hadn’t actually hit the market until now. Boras delayed Weaver’s release date to give the Dodgers first crack at him. It seems that a three-year contract with an option would’ve gotten the job done, but it might take four years at this point.
Last week, Weaver was looking like a potential free agent bargain in the vein of Kevin Millwood last year for the Indians. If nobody wanted to give him three years and $30MM (or whatever), he’d just take a one-year, $8MM deal or something. However, what this potential bargain has taken a 180. It’s fairly obvious that once a ton of people want something, it becomes overvalued. Such will be the case with Weaver, who has eight teams after him.
Rosenthal’s speculation on that front: the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Orioles. Let’s expand on that and try to nail the possibilities.
Orioles – Given Weaver’s recent durability, we know Peter Angelos’s injury hangups probably won’t come into play here. And let’s not rule out the ballclub just because Angelos and Boras aren’t best buddies. The club talks to all agents and is a good fit for Weaver.
Red Sox – I can’t help but doubt the Sox want to bring Weaver back into the AL East. His 5.99 ERA with the Yankees in ’03 looms large.
Tigers – No one seems to think the Tigers would bring Weaver back. Their rotation is pretty much set anyway.
Angels – Maybe he’d love to play with his brother Jered one day, et cetera et cetera. This is cited as a pretty big reason for the Angels to be in play, but a lot of us thought the Braves would end up with Brian Giles for the same reason. According to Bill Stoneman, signing Weaver is "not a likely thing."
Mets – Sure, why not? Pedro, Glavine, Weaver, Benson, Trachsel. You could do worse.
Phillies – Let’s see how this rotation looks so far: Lieber, Lidle, Madson, Myers, Ryan Franklin. I think they’re set, especially with a few options in-house for replacements.
Nationals – It’s looking like they’re going with John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence, and Tony Armas. Ryan Drese is floating around as well. I know they’re mentioned as a main suitor, but I don’t see it.
Cubs – Certainly seems like a legit possibility. No Boras reservations. Possible rotation: Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Wood, Jerome Williams. Not counting on Wood probably means Glendon Rusch or Rich Hill though. Despite the surplus, the Cubs have been making noise about adding another starter. Perhaps Williams would be dealt (although this seems like an unwise course of action to me).
Astros – Weaver would definitely solidify things and relieve their dependency on Roger Clemens.
Cardinals – They will be going with Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, and Reyes in the rotation. If Marquis is traded and Ponson does not take his spot, it would make sense to add Weaver to the mix. After all, Jocketty has pursued Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris, and A.J. Burnett this winter. Perhaps the Cardinal faithful can tell us whether he’d fit into the payroll.
Diamondbacks – No plans to pursue Weaver, according to Josh Byrnes.
I think that pretty much sums it up. In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels. Just my best guess. I’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments.
Angels Pursuing Joey Gathright, Toby Hall
According to Ken Rosenthal, "The Angels are believed to be talking to the Devil Rays about a deal for center fielder Joey Gathright and/or catcher Toby Hall."
We reported yesterday that the Angels were hot on the trail of Tampa Bay outfielders. While our source named Ervin Santana as likely trade bait, Rosenthal thinks young infielders and/or catchers would be sent over. It does make sense that Jeff Mathis would go to the Rays if Hall is dealt. Mathis had a great age 22 season for a catcher at Triple A Salt Lake. It is expected that Steve Finley will be benched or traded to clear a spot for an imported outfielder like Gathright.
Rosenthal also mentions, "acquisition of Hall almost certainly would end the chances of free-agent catcher Bengie Molina remaining with the Angels." An interesting scenario could develop if Molina decides to play it safe and accept arbitration, which is still a possibility. Last year, Placido Polanco unexpectedly accepted arbitration with the Phillies, creating an awkward situation with Chase Utley ready to play every day. Polanco was quickly dealt for just Ugueth Urbina.
Carl Crawford On The Block?
A source close to the Devil Rays’ scouting department filled me in recently on their outfielder extravaganza.
It’s well known Joey Gathright is on the block. If you’re looking for a scrappy player with no power who runs real fast, Gathright is your man. It’s unknown whether Gathright can make his on-base skills shown at Triple A Durham translate to the big leagues, but some team besides the Rays will find out soon enough. I’m not yet able to narrow down the list of his suitors to a single digit number.
Infinitely more interesting than Gathright is the possibility (albeit slim) that Carl Crawford could be dealt. Crawford was "a little shocked" by Rocco Baldelli‘s deal, and rightfully so. After all, where was Baldelli while Crawford was busy being the 10th best LF in the game in ’05? 2006 could be the year Crawford busts out and hits 20 HR.
According to my source, the Angels are hot on the trail of Baldelli, Gathright, and Crawford. The Rays are quite enamored with 22 year-old righthander Ervin Santana. Santana had a solid rookie season in ’05, winning 12 games for the Angels.
Another team in the running for Crawford is the White Sox. They’re not entirely sold on Brian Anderson in center field for a defending World Champion, and the Devil Rays are asking for Brandon McCarthy and/or Josh Fields.
McCarthy pitched with a vengeance in September and October of 2005, tossing 43 innings of 1.69 ERA ball. He led the Minor Leagues in strikeouts in 2004.
Third baseman Josh Fields is in the Sox’s top ten prospect list for sure. However, he was just OK at Double A Birmingham in ’05, hitting .252/.341/.409 in 477 at-bats. Fields is a hard worker, but still needs plenty of seasoning in the minors.
Thanks to Matt
Notes On Byrd, Burnett, Sosa
Today’s hot stove happenings:
Ken Rosenthal reports on the Cubs’ interest in A.J. Burnett. This confirms our assertion from November 18th:
"It’s sounding more and more like the Cubs will come up with another starter to add to the stable. Then they’ll deal from that depth to acquire an outfielder. GM Jim Hendry may be more inclined to make a big splash with A.J. Burnett than give a lot of money to Washburn. Unlike last season when he had to get Sammy Sosa off the books, Hendry will act early and often. The Cardinals’ interest in Burnett may motivate Hendry to make a better offer to the starter."
Speaking of Sosa, the Mets are mentioned as a suitor for the outfielder. The opinion here is that Sosa has nothing left, and is three years older than his listed age of 37. Only a foolish team desperate to allocate its free agent budget somewhere, anywhere, would take a chance on Sosa. I’m predicting the Kansas City Royals sign him as a PR move.
In yet another Rosenthal scoop, the Indians nabbed Paul Byrd for two years and $14.25MM. There’s a club option for the third year. We first reported the Tribe’s interest on November 29th. Byrd should provide decent value at what’s become the going rate for a middle-of-the-rotation starter. The fallout: the Angels will have to bring in a name pitcher if Jarrod Washburn also leaves town. I think he will, and the Angels kicking the tires on Erik Bedard, Livan Hernandez, and Jason Marquis.
The Mets moved quickly on Paul LoDuca, giving up one of their best remaining pitching prospects. Juan Pierre remains the last man standing, and the Marlins haven’t been waiting around to ditch their expensive players. Pierre should be gone as soon as the Fish find a team desperate enough to part with a top-notch prospect. The feeling here is that that team will not be the Yankees.
Thanks to Jerry and Alex