Rays Never Serious About Bonds
The whole Barry Bonds to Tampa Bay storyline has been well overblown, as Cork Gaines has written numerous times. Jon Heyman recently talked to a "Rays person" who put the odds at 100 to 1.
Bonds’ agent, Jeff Borris, says "People are being cheated" by not being able to see Bonds play. Interesting choice of words. Beyond the mild Tony La Russa flirtation, Heyman notes one anonymous AL GM who wanted Bonds but had his owner veto the idea.
Let’s see what MLBTR readers think about this situation. Will Barry Bonds play for a Major League team in 2008? Take the survey here and look at the results here.
Rays Considering Bonds, Piazza, Lofton
12:28pm: Andrew Friedman denies it, calling the Bonds rumor a "non-story." They never even had a harmless internal conversation about Bonds, then?
11:27am: Japan is a legitimate possibility for Barry Bonds, but he may not have exhausted his MLB options just yet. Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times says the Rays have had internal discussions about signing Bonds (hat tip DRays Bay). At some point, one of the 30 teams is going to acknowledge that Bonds adds wins. Most fans have proven that they care more about wins than steroid use.
Other considerations for the Rays include Mike Piazza and Kenny Lofton. In the case of all three players, the Rays would have a logjam on their hands. But the chance to do some bargain shopping could prove irresistible.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Barry Bonds
He has 762 home runs and 7 MVPs. In 2007, he hit 28 home runs in only 126 games and posted a 170 OPS+, which would have led the NL if he had not come up 27 plate appearances short of qualifying. Still, Barry Bonds is without a job for 2008. Some would argue it is because he is 43 years and has bad knees that limit him to DH duty. Others would say it is because he is an unwanted distraction. Some are even beginning to whisper that Bonds is being blackballed by baseball…The Cardinals and the A’s have been linked to Bonds. The Padres were rumored to be in the mix, but publicly have said they are not interested. Marc Topkin wondered if the Rays would be interested, which seems unlikely as the Rays just traded Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young in part because they were headaches. The latest rumor has Bonds possibly playing in Japan in 2008. Could the enticement of setting another home run record convince Bonds to head to the land of the rising sun? With camps in full-swing and Bonds recliner still without a home, let’s take a look at what is being said about Bonds in the Blogosphere…If you think there is a team that is the perfect fit for Bonds in 2008 let us know in the comments.
If there is a topic you would like to see covered in "Baseball Blogs Weigh In" please let me know HERE.
- Giants Cove is willing to admit that the Giants chemistry will be better in 2008, but there is one glaring problem with the new found chemistry. The Giants cleanup hitter will be Benjie Molina.
- Athletics Nation notes that signing Bonds would be a smart business decision for the A’s.
- Catfish Stew wonders if A’s fans will be just as hard on Jack Cust, who was named in the Mitchell Report as they say they will be on Bonds if he signs with Oakland.
- Yankees Chick finds it curious that so many Yankees fans are clamoring for the Bombers to sign Bonds.
- Rays of Light notes that baggage aside, DH is already crowded for the Rays with Cliff Floyd, Jonny Gomes and Rocco Baldelli sharing at bats.
- Metstradamus feels that the chances of the Mets signing Bonds to play the outfield are about 2,000,000 to 1.
- Gaslamp Ball
is not surprised the Padres passed on Bonds, noting that San Diego is
where the giant syringe was thrown at Bonds during a game. - Babes Love Baseball can’t understand why Bonds is without a job, but they understand he comes with a bit of a circus and the occasional ‘booing’.
Odds and Ends: El Duque, Rays, Botts, Cruz
Today’s linkage…
- RotoAuthority tries to decide what to do with the fourth pick in a fantasy draft.
- The rumor about the Royals moving to the NL seems unfounded.
- Sean McAdam says the Red Sox will keep an eye on the free agent pitching market, but don’t intend to spend much.
- El Duque has all sorts of problems, which I won’t go into. Maybe he’s just down on his luck, but he indicated a 50/50 chance of this being his last season. He’ll earn $6.5MM, and PECOTA calls for a 4.08 ERA in 98 innings.
- DRays Bay talked to team owner Stu Sternberg. Sternberg mentioned that he reads Rays Index, the blog of MLBTR contributor Cork Gaines.
- Evan Grant compares Rangers Jason Botts and Nelson Cruz, one of whom will not be with the team by Opening Day. They are among many on our Out of Options – 2008 list, which is growing by the hour.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Johan Santana’s Contract
The biggest move of this year’s Hot Stove League was clearly the trade of Johan Santana. The subsequent contract given to Santana by the Mets set a new benchmark for pitchers and could have a lasting trickle-down effect on other pitchers in baseball. The players most likely to cash in on the Santana deal are other young lefties with strong track records. The first fallout appears to be in Cleveland, with the recent news that C.C. Sabathia has broken off contract talks. With pitchers and catchers conducting their first workouts in many camps today, let’s take a look at how Santana’s deal is affecting other pitchers in the blogosphere.
- Let’s Go Tribe feels that Sabathia could command $150MM on the open market and breaking off contract talks means Sabathia will not be a member of the Indians in 2009.
- Indians Confidential agrees that Sabathia is "as good as gone."
- Tribe Report does not think the Indians should give Sabathia a seven-year deal as it is a stretch to think he will be worth $20MM at age 35.
- MLB Fleece Factor calls it "The Santana Effect" and believes that Santana’s new deal means that A.J. Burnett will likely opt out of his contract in Toronto following the 2008 season. In addition, they believe that there is a possibility that the Jays will look to trade Roy Halladay prior to his 2010 free agency.
- Rays Index believes there is a good chance the Rays will look to trade Scott Kazmir following the 2008 season. They feel that Santana’s deal will make it nearly impossible for the Rays to sign Kazmir to an extension prior to his 2010 free agency. In addition, the recent bounty obtained by the Orioles for Erik Bedard and the pipeline of top pitching prospects in the Rays’ system, suggest that it is in the best interest of the franchise to move their young ace.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Joe Blanton
After letting Barry Zito walk last year and trading Danny Haren in December, the A’s appear to be entertaining offers for Joe Blanton. While the Reds and the Dodgers appear to be the most aggressive suitors, Ken Rosenthal speculated that Blanton would be a good fit for the Twins or the Rays and Buster Olney named several other clubs that could be interested in acquiring the right-hander. Blanton, 27, is still three years from free agency, and will make $3.7MM this season. With pitchers and catchers due to report this week, let’s take a look at reactions to the Blanton rumors from the blogosphere.
- Athletics Nation is surprised that Blanton has not been moved yet. They expect that a deal is more likely now that Johan Santana has been traded, and the free agent market is drying up.
- Redleg Nation thinks the Reds should be willing to part with Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto in addition to Joey Votto for a proven pitcher.
- On the other hand, Red Reporter believes the Reds should only take Blanton if they do not have to surrender one of their top prospects.
- Pinstripe Alley wouldn’t mind the Yankees acquiring Blanton as long as the trade does not require Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes. The would be willing to part with Alan Horne or Austin Jackson from the lower levels.
- Rays Anatomy believes that Blanton is an asset that the Rays could use (an innings eater), but ultimately does not think the trade makes sense for the Rays. They are hesitant With so many pitching prospects knocking on the Rays’ door and do not want to part with prospects such as Wade Davis, Jake McGee or Desmond Jennings.
- Over the Monster does not see the Red Sox giving up Coco Crisp for Blanton as that would be a deviation from their plan to develop pitchers in their system. Rather, they think it is more likely that the Sox sign a free agent or move Julian Tavarez to the rotation.
Blanton May Be Traded
9:14pm: Fay suggests the A’s would want Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto, and a third player for Blanton.
1:32pm: Paul Daugherty and John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer report that the Reds and Dodgers are talking to the A’s about Blanton. Seems to be a disagreement about whether the Dodgers are in on this.
10:31am: Check out this new Ken Rosenthal video (hat tip to MetsBlog). The video is all about Joe Blanton.
- One Rosenthal source suggests a 50/50 chance Blanton is traded (presumably before the season starts).
- Two teams are showing significant interest. Rosenthal believes the Reds are one, and the Twins or Rays could be another. He rules out the Dodgers, Yankees, Rockies, and Indians. The Reds have had preliminary discussions for Blanton already. How about the Phillies? They came calling in July.
- Rosenthal notes that the bounty for Blanton will be less than that of Dan Haren, because Blanton is slightly more expensive and an inferior pitcher.
- On January 14th, an A’s source suggested to MLB.com’s Jim Molony who expected Blanton to be the A’s Opening Day starter.
Morgan Ensberg Signs With Yankees
According to a source, the Yankees have signed Morgan Ensberg. They’ll use him at first base (and maybe off the bench). It’s a minor league deal. Jerry Crasnick confirms it, noting that the Rays and Giants expressed interest.
Ensberg, 32, hit .231/.320/.404 for the Astros and Padres in ’07. He earned $4.35MM, and the Padres non-tendered him in December. The Astros had designated him for assignment in July after acquiring Ty Wigginton. Ensberg has not been the same since seriously bruising his shoulder in June of ’06.
James Shields Close To Multiyear Deal
UPDATE, 1-23-08 at 4:49pm: If all of the Rays’ three one-year options on Shields are exercised, the deal could reach seven years and $44MM. Certainly a unique deal.
UPDATE, 1-23-08 at 9:15am: Topkin says the deal could be worth more than $40MM over seven years with incentives. $12MM and the first four seasons are guaranteed.
FROM 1-22-08 at 3:32pm:
According to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times, a six or seven-year extension for starter James Shields should be done tonight. Topkin notes that it’s odd for a young pitcher with two years of service time to get such a long deal. The Rays must really love him.
His ’07 season was very impressive. At age 25 he threw 215 innings in the toughest division in baseball and posted a 3.85 ERA with a 5.1 K/BB ratio. That’s not something you see every day.
Needs and Luxuries: Tampa Bay Rays
Up next in our Needs and Luxuries series, the Rays. Here’s how they’re set up.
C – Dioner Navarro
1B – Carlos Pena
2B – Akinori Iwamura
SS – Jason Bartlett
3B – Evan Longoria
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – B.J. Upton
RF – Cliff Floyd/Rocco Baldelli/Jonny Gomes
DH – Cliff Floyd/Rocco Baldelli/Jonny Gomes
SP – Scott Kazmir
SP – Jamie Shields
SP – Matt Garza
SP – Andy Sonnanstine/Edwin Jackson/Jeff Niemann/Jason Hammel/J.P. Howell
SP – Andy Sonnanstine/Edwin Jackson/Jeff Niemann/Jason Hammel/J.P. Howell
Setup: Al Reyes
Closer: Troy Percival
Needs:
The ’07 Rays ranked 8th in the league in OBP and 4th in SLG. How can they find the needed OBP improvement? Delmon Young‘s sub-par OBP is gone, replaced with the Gomes/Floyd/Baldelli rotation. Let’s consider any Baldelli contribution as gravy and just look at what Gomes and Floyd will provide. Gomes had a .322 OBP last year and owns a career mark of .335. He draws plenty of walks, between 9-13% of his plate appearances. To become an above average Major Leaguer he is going to have to make better contact and get his batting average up. Floyd had a fine .373 OBP in ’07 and has a .359 career mark. I think the planned three-man RF/DH rotation is a fine idea for a team not quite ready to contend. It would be very interesting to see the Rays bring Bobby Abreu back next winter though.
Navarro was insanely bad before the break in ’07 but had a solid .815 OPS after. He’s just 24 in February. Another improvement should come with Iwamura spending all year at second base. More of him plus Longoria’s projected .350 OBP instead of Ty Wigginton push this team’s OBP even higher. No more Josh Wilson, more games for Upton, and the addition of Willy Aybar are other sources of OBP. The ’08 Rays are primed to reach base more often.
While the metric isn’t perfect, the Rays’ 5.20 starter ERA tells you something. However, hope is on the way. The rotation is already fronted by sub-4 ERA beasts Kazmir and Shields. New addition Garza should remain above average. Then the goal is to find the best of Hammel, Jackson, Sonnanstine, Howell, and Niemann. While these aren’t household names there’s a lot of talent in that group. The pitching pipeline is stacked with five-star prospects David Price and Wade Davis plus a four-star Jacob McGee. The "need" for ’08 is to let young pitchers get their big league reps in. The Rays don’t need a veteran free agent stealing valuable innings – instead save the money and bring in a difference-maker for ’09.
The Rays’ bullpen was league-worst in ’07, but they’ve already taken steps to address it. The last piece of the puzzle may be to find a lefty like Trever Miller. But this ‘pen will be much improved with Percival, Eduardo Morlan (acquired in the Delmon Young trade), a full year of Dan Wheeler, and the starting pitching runoff (Niemann could be interesting). Maybe the big move for a Lidge/Nathan/K-Rod makes sense next winter.
Luxuries:
Let’s see here. The best farm system in baseball (aided by all the losing) has the Rays overflowing with young talent. Pitching, hitting, you name it. Oh, and they have the #1 pick again this summer (read about some options for that here). You can never have enough pitching, so the Rays should probably just keep all the arms. A healthy Baldelli would be an interesting trade chip. Bartlett or Iwamura could become expendable if Reid Brignac makes strides.
The other luxury for Tampa Bay is payroll flexibility. They have no bad contracts. They could make a couple of big-time signings in the winter of 2008-09 and still have one of the lowest payrolls in the game. ’08 is where the Rays finally crack .500. ’09 is where they start showing the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays that they’re not messing around, and reach the playoffs for the first time. This bandwagon is picking up steam.