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Quick Hits: Sticky Stuff Crackdown, Cardinals, Verlander

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As we approach trade season, teams are burdened with the overwhelming task of re-evaluating the league in the wake of the crackdown on illegal substances. Broad strokes, evaluators will be more trusting of pitchers who rely on two-seamers and sinkers, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney. Unsurprisingly, those pitchers who have taken to the recent trend of high-velocity heaters up in the zone and wicked curveballs diving away will be watched more closely. The next month will obviously provide important data points for potential buyers, but looking at how players have struggled and/or succeeded in the first few months of the year will also be heavily scrutinized by teams looking to find players on the rebound. In other MLB news….

  • The Cardinals are doing their best to patch together a rotation in the wake of Jack Flaherty’s extended absence, but they’re also exploring their options outside the organization. They have reached out to the Twins about Jose Berrios and the Rangers for Kyle Gibson, but the price for Berrios was “high,” and presumably, the same will be true of Gibson, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. With very few difference-making arms likely to be available, Berrios and Gibson are sure to be in high demand. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak spoke of the Cardinals’ desire to win, but “not at the cost of our future.” While that’s a reasonable mode of thinking, such a mind-set isn’t likely to procure an arm like Berrios or Gibson.
  • Justin Verlander hasn’t rule out the possibility of returning to the Detroit Tigers before his career runs out, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Of course, Verlander needs to get healthy first. He will be a free agent at the end of the season, however, free to pursue a return to Detroit, should that be his desire. Verlander played in Detroit for 13 seasons. He ranks 2nd in Tigers’ history for rWAR among pitchers, 2.7 rWAR behind Hal Newhouser. He is fifth in Tigers’ history in games started with 380 and 2nd in total strikeouts with 2,373.

Rangers Designate Shaun Anderson For Assignment

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The Rangers announced they’ve designated right-hander Shaun Anderson for assignment. The move creates 40-man roster space for the previously-announced selection of catcher John Hicks.

Texas claimed Anderson off waivers from the Twins two weeks ago. They promptly optioned him to Triple-A Round Rock, so it’s possible Anderson’s Rangers tenure will end without a big league appearance. He tossed three scoreless innings for the Express.

Anderson made his MLB debut with the Giants in 2019 and was traded to Minnesota over the winter. The 26-year-old allowed twelve runs (nine earned) in 8 2/3 innings with the Twins this year, bringing his career ERA to 5.48 in 120 big league frames. Anderson has a much better 3.61 mark across parts of three Triple-A seasons

Texas will have a week to trade Anderson or place him on waivers. Between his minor league track record and pair of minor league option years remaining, Anderson could hold some appeal to other clubs. The Rangers had the league’s fourth-highest waiver priority when they claimed Anderson, so it’s possible a team with a better record is hoping to have an opportunity to add him this time around.

Rangers Select John Hicks

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The Rangers announced they’ve selected the contract of catcher John Hicks. Outfielder Jason Martin has been optioned to Triple-A Round Rock to clear active roster space. A 40-man roster transaction has yet to be announced.

Starting catcher Jose Trevino suffered a forearm contusion after he slipped and fell earlier today, notes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link). With Trevino unavailable, Texas needed another backstop to pair with Jonah Heim. That’ll open up an opportunity for Hicks’ first big league run in two years. The right-handed hitter saw MLB action every season from 2015-19, the bulk of which came with the Tigers.

Hicks flashed some power during his time in Detroit, but he never drew many walks and has struck out in 30.1% of his career plate appearances at the highest level. The 32-year-old signed a minor league deal with Texas over the winter and has hit .275/.352/.440 with three homers across 122 plate appearances with Round Rock. That’s league average production in a hitter-friendly Triple-A West environment.

Rangers’ Willie Calhoun, Hunter Wood Require Surgery

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Rangers outfielder/designated hitter Willie Calhoun will require surgery to repair a fracture in his left ulna, the team announced to reporters Monday (Twitter thread via Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). Calhoun sustained the injury when he was hit by a pitch on the forearm over the weekend. A clear timetable hasn’t yet been revealed — that’ll presumably come after the operation — but an absence of some note now looks all the more inevitable.

Meanwhile, right-hander Hunter Wood, who has been out since late May after hitting the IL with an elbow surgery that was eventually termed a “mild” sprain of his right ulnar collateral ligament. He’s now undergone elbow surgery and will miss a minimum of eight months, which suggests that Wood did not require a full Tommy John surgery (which comes with a 12- to 16-month recovery period). Indeed, the procedure in question installed an internal brace in Wood’s elbow, tweets The Athletic’s Levi Weaver.

It was already apparent that Calhoun would be out awhile following the announcement of a fracture, but it’s a tough blow all the same. The 26-year-old wasn’t hitting for the type of power he displayed in 2019, but Calhoun’s 8.4 percent walk rate and 11.6 percent strikeout rate are both career-best marks. He’s long been a touted hitting prospect, and had he been able to maintain that improved approach while reclaiming some of his 2019 pop as the summer wore on, there was some breakout potential.

It remains to be seen when or whether Calhoun will return to the big league club in 2021, but the injury will deprive him of a chance to bolster his case in his first offseason of arbitration eligibility. He’s under club control through the 2024 season.

As for Wood, the surgery will cut his season short at just five big league innings. The right-hander joined the organization on a minor league pact over the winter and showed well in a brief Triple-A look before allowing a pair of runs in his MLB frames. Wood didn’t pitch in the Majors last season, but he’s seen MLB time with both the Rays and the Indians in the past, throwing quite well along the way. He’s tallied 91 2/3 innings at the MLB level and put together a 3.34 ERA with a below-average 21.9 percent strikeout rate against an very solid 8.1 percent walk rate.

While Wood’s 2021 season is over, he can remain under team control with the Rangers organization — they’re comfortable committing a 40-man roster spot over the winter. There’s no guarantee that’ll be the case, but Wood has been outrighted in the past, so even if the Rangers remove him from the 40-man this winter and he goes unclaimed on waivers, he’d have the option of electing free agency to determine the best fit.

Willie Calhoun Suffers Forearm Fracture

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12:47 pm: Texas placed Calhoun on the 10-day injured list prior to today’s game. Outfielder Jason Martin has been recalled from Triple-A Round Rock in a corresponding move.

9:14 am: Rangers left fielder/DH Willie Calhoun fractured his forearm after being hit by a Kris Bubic pitch during yesterday’s game against the Royals, manager Chris Woodward told reporters (including Jeff Wilson). A more definitive timetable for his recovery won’t become clear until he undergoes further testing, but he’s obviously looking at a rather significant absence.

It’s unfortunately the latest in a series of injuries that have befallen Calhoun in recent years. The 26-year-old has spent time on the injured list due to leg issues in each of the last three seasons, and he was struck in the face by a Julio Urías pitch during Spring Training in 2020. Those persistent health problems have kept the promising hitter from picking up more than 337 plate appearances in any single major league season.

Calhoun has made 226 trips to the dish this year, hitting at a league average level (.254/.323/.385). That’s not the high-end offensive output the Rangers are hoping for from a player with limited defensive utility, but Calhoun still seems to have the potential to make more of an impact. He was a highly-regarded offensive player during his time as a prospect, and he looked to be on the verge of a breakout after putting up a .269/.323/.524 line in 2019.

Calhoun hasn’t hit for anywhere near that level of power this year, but he’s been one the game’s toughest players to punch out (11.9% strikeout rate). His batted ball metrics also indicate he’s made more quality contact to this point than his bottom line numbers would suggest. The left-handed hitter is scheduled to reach arbitration eligibility for the first time after the season.

2021 Amateur Draft Rumors: Pirates, Mayer, Orioles, Mock Drafts

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The 2021 amateur draft begins on July 11, and with the later date comes more time for analysis, predictions, smokescreens, rumors, and possible major changes up and down teams’ draft boards.  With this in mind, there is naturally quite a bit of uncertainty over which prospects will land with which teams, as a real consensus has yet to develop in almost every single spot in the first round.

Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, The Athletic’s Keith Law, MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, and ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel have all published new mock drafts within the last week, and one constant emerged between the four pundits — the Pirates taking California high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer with the first overall (1-1) pick.  It isn’t a sure thing by any means, however, as the Pirates are said to be focused “only on position players at this point,” according to Law, so such candidates as Louisville catcher Henry Davis (Callis cites Davis as Pittsburgh’s apparent “Plan B”) or high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Khalil Watson could still be in the mix.  Collazo also believes the Pirates are considering Vanderbilt right-hander Jack Leiter.

The Pirates’ $14,394,000 draft bonus pool is the highest of any team, and they plan to maximize value by drafting a player at 1-1 who is thought to be less willing to insist on the full slot price $8,415,300 slot price for the first overall pick.  “I think that’s what Pittsburgh’s pick will come down to: taking the one that is clearly cheaper to sign,” McDaniel writes, which certainly isn’t welcome news to Pirates fans long frustrated by the team’s unwillingness to spend.

That being said, many teams have deployed the strategy of spreading around their draft bonus money in the past.  The most famous example was the Astros’ pick of Carlos Correa (seen as a slight reach at the time) first overall in 2012, and Houston signed Correa to a below-slot bonus and then using that saved money to sign 41st-overall pick Lance McCullers Jr. to an above-slot deal.  It also isn’t like Mayer would be a controversial choice at 1-1, considering that MLB Pipeline ranks him first on their top 250 draft prospects list, and McDaniel’s most recent prospect ranking has Mayer second overall.

While Mayer looks like the favorite at the moment, it is quite possible the perceived price tags could still fluctuate in the next three weeks.  For instance, the three pundits all note that the Tigers love Mayer, so he isn’t likely to fall beyond Detroit at the third overall pick if the Pirates and Rangers (who pick second) both pass.  As McDaniel observes, this impacts Mayer’s leverage in potential negotiations with the Pirates, since the young shortstop can be reasonably certain of at least landing a bonus in range of the $7,221,200 slot price attached to the third overall pick.

There is no consensus whatsoever in the mock drafts after a hypothetical Pirates/Mayer 1-1 pick, so if Pittsburgh went in another direction, the draft boards would be entirely blown up.  To give you an idea of the wide range of scenarios, here is the list of players cited by Callis, Collazo, Law and McDaniel as possibilities for each team drafting in the top eight, along with which pundit selected which prospect for each top-eight team in their mock draft.

  • 1. Pirates: Mayer (Callis/Collazo/Law/McDaniel), Henry Davis, Jordan Lawlar, Khalil Watson, Jack Leiter
  • 2. Rangers: Leiter (Callis), Lawlar (Collazo/Law), Davis (McDaniel), Kumar Rocker, Mayer, Watson….in a contrast to the other three pundits, Callis writes that Texas has Lawlar and Davis “on the back burner” behind Watson, Mayer, and Leiter.  “Watson has real heat at this spot,” Collazo writes.
  • 3. Tigers: Mayer, Jackson Jobe (Callis/Collazo), Leiter (Law), Brady House (McDaniel), Lawlar, Watson, possibly Rocker “as a big maybe” in Collazo’s words
  • 4. Red Sox: Lawlar (Callis), Davis (Law), Leiter (Collazo/McDaniel)….Collazo doesn’t believe Leiter would fall beyond Boston at fourth overall,
  • 5. Orioles: Davis (Callis), Colton Cowser (Law), Watson (Collazo/McDaniel), House, Harry Ford, either of Mayer/Lawler if they happened to fall….Baltimore is widely expected to take a college position player at an under-slot price, as a way of keeping money in reserve to go over-slot on other picks.
  • 6. Diamondbacks: Rocker (Callis), Davis (Collazo), Watson (Law), Lawlor (McDaniel), Jobe
  • 7. Royals: Watson (Callis), Rocker (Collazo/Law/McDaniel)….this is another minor consensus area, as Law and McDaniel believe that Rocker isn’t likely to fall beyond Kansas City.  “The market for Rocker is weirdly specific,” Law writes, citing the Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Nationals, and Mets as perhaps the only true interested parties.  Of course, Callis projected the D’Backs to take Rocker at sixth overall, so Arizona could also be a candidate for the Vanderbilt righty.
  • 8. Rockies: House (Callis/Collazo/Law), Benny Montgomery (McDaniel), Jobe

All four mock drafts are well worth reading in full, to get a sense of what the 29 teams with first-round picks are generally targeting this year or have historically looked for in past drafts.  (The Astros aren’t included, as they lost their first-rounder as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.)

For more on the prospects themselves, you can check out the aforementioned lists from McDaniel and MLB Pipeline, Baseball America’s top 500 list, or some of the individual writeups from the Sports Info Solutions blog on such top college players as Florida outfielder Jud Fabian, Wake Forest right-hander Ryan Cusick, UCLA shortstop Matt McClain, and Mississippi right-hander Gunnar Hoglund.

Rangers Select Joe Barlow, Designate Brett de Geus

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The Rangers announced they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Joe Barlow. Fellow righty Brett de Geus has been designated for assignment to create 40-man roster space. Texas also recalled Wes Benjamin and optioned Demarcus Evans.

It’s a bullpen shuffle that’ll result in Barlow getting his first major league opportunity. An 11th-round pick out of Salt Lake Community College in 2016, Barlow has worked exclusively in relief throughout his pro career. Across parts of five minor league seasons, he’s pitched to a 2.64 ERA. Barlow’s missed bats in droves, striking out 34.2% of batters faced in the minors, but he’s also shown significant control issues. The 25-year-old has dished out free passes to 15.4% of opponents in his career.

To his credit, Barlow has walked a career-low 10.1% of hitters in 21 frames at Triple-A Round Rock this year. That’s right in line with the MLB average for relievers (exactly 10%), so the Rangers will give him an opportunity to try to carry over that passable strike-throwing against big league hitters. Barlow has continued to keep batters off balance as he’s climbed to the minors’ highest level, striking out 36.7% of opponents this season while managing a 2.57 ERA.

The Rangers selected de Geus from the Dodgers organization in last winter’s Rule 5 draft, meaning he needed to stick in the majors all season if the Rangers wanted to retain his contractual rights long-term. He made the Opening Day roster and has gotten a pretty long leash this year, tossing 26 2/3 innings across 19 appearances. de Geus has given up an 8.44 ERA with mediocre strikeout and walk numbers (20.5% and 10.2%, respectively), although he’s kept the ball on the ground at a fantastic 55.6% clip and managed a decent 4.00 SIERA. Nevertheless, the Rangers decided to remove him from the roster. He’ll be placed on waivers; if he clears, he’ll need to be offered back to the Dodgers, who won’t need to keep him on the 40-man roster.

Rangers Release Nick Vincent

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The Rangers announced they’ve released veteran reliever Nick Vincent from his minor league contract. He’s now a free agent.

Vincent signed with Texas in March. He has gone on to make fifteen appearances at Triple-A Round Rock, tossing 15 1/3 innings of 4.11 ERA ball with a strong 29.7% strikeout rate and a slightly elevated 9.5% walk rate. Despite that decent performance, Texas has elected to cut Vincent loose rather than give him a major league look.

The 34-year-old righty shouldn’t have a hard time finding another opportunity elsewhere. He saw big league action in each season from 2012-20 and has typically been a steady, reliable option in the middle innings. Vincent has a career 3.38 ERA at the big league level, but he’s pitched to a 4.43 mark in each of the past two seasons.

Minor MLB Transactions: 6/20/21

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The latest minor moves from around baseball:

  • The Rangers announced that right-hander Tyson Miller has cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Round Rock. Texas claimed the 25-year-old from the Cubs earlier this month but designated him for assignment themselves after he made just one Triple-A appearance. Miller, who has five MLB innings under his belt (all with Chicago in 2020), has pitched well up through Double-A but struggled to a 7.26 ERA at the minors’ highest level. He doesn’t have the requisite service time to refuse an outright assignment, so he’ll remain in the Rangers organization without taking a spot on the 40-man roster.

John Mozeliak Discusses Cardinals’ Slump, Trade Possibilities

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The Cardinals didn’t play on Saturday due to a rainout, and team president of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that the unscheduled off-day had the benefit of providing “a timeout or break because right now we’re not playing great baseball.”  A 5-13 slide over their last 18 games has dropped St. Louis to an even 35-35 record for the season, and the Cards sit in fourth place in the NL Central (3.5 games out of first) and 4.5 game in the NL wild card race.

With a minus-39 run differential, an argument could be made that the Cardinals are fortunate to even be a .500 team.  The Cards haven’t really excelled in many areas this season, as the lineup, rotation, and bullpen have all had their share of struggles.  These issues and several injuries have all caught up to the team during this 18-game stretch, with Mozeliak noting that “it’s multi-dimensional, right?  The days you hit, you don’t pitch.  The days you pitch, you don’t hit.  Then some flawed defense.  Where we are — the health question isn’t going away any time soon, unfortunately.”

In response to these problems, the St. Louis front office has been exploring trade possibilities, with starting pitching being a specific priority.  Goold reports that the Rangers and Twins have been among the teams the Cardinals have been in contact with, though at this point in the season, it’s probably safe to assume that most contenders and would-be contenders have checked in with the teams (like Texas and Minnesota) who already look like clear deadline sellers.

Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson are the most intriguing rotation possibilities that could be available for the Twins and Rangers, while impending free agents like Jordan Lyles and J.A. Happ are more readily available but not necessarily representing big upgrades on what St. Louis already has on hand.  Twins righty Michael Pineda is having a good season and is another impending free agent, though he was placed on the injured list this week due to elbow inflammation.

Whatever trade the Cardinals may or may not make, “it’s not all in or we’re going to break up the organization.  That’s not the pressure I feel,” Mozeliak stated.  With well over a month remaining until the July 30 trade deadline, Mozeliak said that it is still a “little premature” that the Cardinals complete a major trade any time soon, and that the team isn’t planning to “take a real chunk out of our farm system” in order to swing a deal.

“If, at some point, we look for something outside the organization, we certainly will, but we’re not at a point where we’re only going to define ourselves by 2021,” Mozeliak said. “We’re not feeling that pressure if we don’t win this year that we’re all in trouble.  We must understand that we can all do things better.  We also understand what we thought we’re going to have — because of injuries — hasn’t yet worked out.”

While no executive would publicly admit to a win-or-bust mentality, there is some natural pressure on the Cardinals this season.  Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright both returned to the team last winter on one-year free agent deals, and both longtime St. Louis cornerstones are still playing at a high level.  Beyond that, Nolan Arenado can also opt out of his contract after the season, and as unlikely as it may be that the third baseman could walk away from six years and $179MM, Arenado is certainly eager to win now.

Speculatively, if the Cards can’t start winning over the next few weeks, there would also be a case for the team to look ahead to 2022.  St. Louis will have a lot of payroll space to work with, as Molina, Wainwright, Matt Carpenter, Andrew Miller, Kwang Hyun Kim, and the remainder of Dexter Fowler’s contract are all off the books, and Carlos Martinez’s $17MM club option isn’t likely to be exercised.  It’s also possible that the Cardinals could both sell and buy at the same time, perhaps taking on a higher-salaried player controlled beyond 2021 with an eye towards fitting that player more comfortably into their lightened payroll come next season.

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