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Jose Berrios

Blue Jays Sign Jose Berrios To Seven-Year Extension

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12:45pm: Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reports that Berrios received a $5MM signing bonus and will be paid $10MM next season (Twitter link). He’ll then earn salaries of $15MM, in 2023, $17MM in 2024, $18MM in 2025-26, and $24MM in 2027-28.

That breakdown indicates Berrios’ opt-out decision will come with a total of $48MM remaining on the contract. However, Davidi adds that escalators based on Berrios’ 2025-26 stats could boost his 2027-28 salaries by $5MM apiece. If he triggers all the escalators, Berrios would decide between the remaining two years and $58MM or reentering the market in advance of his age-33 season.

7:30am: The Blue Jays’ first big move of the offseason is to lock up one of their own, as they announced Thursday that they’ve signed right-hander Jose Berrios to a seven-year extension that will reportedly guarantee him $131MM. Berrios is represented by Wasserman.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Berrios would earn just shy of $11MM for 2022 in his final trip through arbitration, meaning this extension effectively buys out six free agent years at $120MM, although the actual breakdown of the contract is not known at this point. Berrios will be able to opt out after the fifth year of the deal and has limited no-trade protection. There are also escalators in the deal that could increase the value of the contract by $10MM.

The 27-year-old Berrios was acquired from the Twins at July’s trade deadline and had been set to reach free agency after the 2022 season. Instead, the Blue Jays will keep him around for an extended stay, hoping that he anchors their rotation well into the future. This extension runs through 2028, which will be his age-34 season.

Prior to that trade, Berrios had spent his entire career in the Twins organization since they selected him in the supplemental first round of the draft in 2012, 32nd overall, out of Papa Juan High School in Bayamon, Puerto Rico. He had just turned 18 years old at the time. He quickly rose through the ranks of the minors, making his debut in April of 2016, a month before his 22nd birthday. Although he struggled in that first taste of MLB action, he broke out in a big way the following season. In 2017, he logged 145 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.89 and has been remarkably reliable and consistent since then. He made 32 starts in each of 2018, 2019 and 2021, throwing at least 192 innings each year along with an ERA between 3.52 and 3.84. He also made 12 starts in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, with his ERA at an even 4.00. In the five-year stretch from 2017 to 2021, he threw a total of 793 1/3 innings with an ERA of 3.74, strikeout rate of 24.4%, walk rate of 7% and groundball rate of 41.4%. His 15.4 fWAR in that time ranks 14th among all pitchers in baseball.

The Blue Jays clearly valued Berrios very highly based on the package they sent to the Twins, with both Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson being highly-touted prospects. At the time of the trade, Martin was only one year removed from being the 5th overall selection in the 2020 draft and was considered to be one of the top-25 prospects in the game by each of FanGraphs, Baseball America and MLB.com. Woods Richardson was not on Baseball America’s list but was 49th at FanGraphs and 68th at MLB.com. It was believed by many that this was a steep price to pay for a year and a half of Berrios’s services, but the Blue Jays have doubled down on their belief in him by locking him up for at least four more years on top of that.

This now ranks as one of the largest extensions ever for a starting pitcher between five and six years’ service time, trailing only the $215MM garnered by Clayton Kershaw, the $175MM by Stephen Strasburg and $144MM for Cole Hamels. If Berrios pitches well over the next five years, he can opt out after the 2026 campaign, which will be his age-32 season. That could give him the opportunity to hit free agency and land another solid payday, after having already banked over $100MM in career earnings.

The Blue Jays had some long-term uncertainty in their rotation, with Berrios and Ross Stripling set to reach free agency after 2022 and Hyun-Jin Ryu after 2023, leaving youngsters like Alek Manoah and Nate Pearson as the only future options. Locking Berrios down through 2028 provides some much-needed stability as they look to complement that group this offseason.

The club’s 2022 payroll is currently sitting around $115MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Their opening day number in 2021 was $135MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, giving them about $20MM of space to work with before they reach last year’s number. However, the club may also increase spending this year, which would give them even more ability to supplement the roster. It’s unknown exactly how high they anticipate the budget to go between now and the spring, but they have run payrolls over $160MM in years past.

The club has already been connected in rumors to Justin Verlander, Andrew Heaney and Eduardo Rodriguez, the latter having signed with the Tigers yesterday. Despite winning 91 games in 2021, the Jays somehow finished fourth place in the AL East, one game away from a Wild Card berth. With Robbie Ray, Steven Matz and Marcus Semien all now free agents, the club still has work to do in order to stay afloat in that cutthroat environment. Extending Berrios doesn’t necessarily improve the 2022 club on paper, but it should serve as a signal to other free agents that the team is committed to do what it takes to be competitive for the foreseeable future.

Hector Jose Torres Donato (Twitter link) was the first to report the news of the seven-year extension. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet first had the $131 guarantee (Twitter link). Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the opt-out and no-trade protection (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first mentioned escalators (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of MLB Network first reported the $10MM value of the escalators (Twitter link).

Image Courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Extension Candidate: Jose Berrios

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“However, it still wasn’t enough to get the Blue Jays into the playoffs” is the inevitable add-on to any description of the Jays’ many positives in 2021, as despite winning 91 games, Toronto fell a game short of a wild card berth.  For instance, Jose Berrios came as advertised for the Jays, posting a 3.58 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate, and 4.5% walk rate over 70 1/3 innings after Toronto acquired the righty from the Twins in a blockbuster of a trade deadline swap.

The Jays had the third-highest fWAR (7.1) of any group of starting pitchers in baseball from August 1 onward, as Berrios joined with Robbie Ray, Hyun Jin Ryu, Alek Manoah, and Steven Matz to quietly turn Toronto’s rotation into one of the best in the league.  Berrios threw the second-most innings of any in that group, as his durable right arm proved especially valuable when Ryu battled some injury problems down the stretch.

And yet, it was still wasn’t….you know the rest.  While the Jays’ window of contention still looks to be wide open going forward, their near-miss in 2021 was costly since free agents Ray, Matz, and Marcus Semien could all be playing in other uniforms next year.  The clock is also now ticking a little louder on Berrios, who is under control for one more season before hitting free agency himself after the 2022 campaign.

That extra year of team control only added to Berrios’ value as a Twins trade chip, and in landing Berrios, the Blue Jays gained some insurance if Ray and/or Matz do leave this winter.  But, that insurance came with a steep premium, as the Jays had to surrender two consensus top-100 prospects to Minnesota — Austin Martin (the fifth overall pick of the 2020 draft), and Simeon Woods Richardson, one of the young arms the Jays acquired as part of the Marcus Stroman trade in 2019.

Toronto was willing to meet the Twins’ asking price in ordre to have Berrios on hand for two postseason pushes, and now that first push has come up empty-handed.  Signing Berrios to a contract extension would certainly alleviate a lot of the extra pressure inevitably associated with that trade, not to mention the more important big-picture aspect of locking up a front-of-the-rotation arm for years to come.

Looking at recent extensions for starting pitchers, Lance McCullers Jr. signed a five-year, $85MM deal with the Astros last March that might serve as a floor for a new Berrios contract.  McCullers was entering his age-27 season at the time of the signing, and Berrios just turned 27 last May.  The McCullers extension also only covered his 2022-26 free agent years, as the righty and the Astros had already agreed to a $6.5MM salary for 2021, McCullers’ last arbitration-eligible year (though the deal did provide McCullers with a $3.5MM signing bonus).

As per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, Berrios is projected to earn $10.9MM in his final arbitration-eligible season of 2022, a hefty bump from his $6.1MM salary from 2020.  So while something in the range of that salary could be baked into a potential extension, Berrios has the extra security of knowing he has a nice payday already coming his way this winter.

I cited McCullers as a floor rather than a true comp for a Berrios extension because Berrios has simply been the more valuable pitcher.  McCullers had posted some very solid career numbers at the time of his extension, though only over 508 2/3 innings, as a Tommy John surgery and some other injuries limited his usage.  If anything, the Astros were rolling the dice in committing $85MM to a pitcher with McCullers’ injury history, though his strong performance in 2021 should help quiet some doubts.

By contrast, Berrios has been the picture of durability throughout his big league career, never once making a trip to the injured list with either the Twins or Blue Jays.  Berrios has tossed at least 192 innings in each of the last three 162-game seasons, and his 647 2/3 IP since the start of the 2018 season ranks fifth among all pitchers in baseball.  Beyond just the durability, Berrios also has a 3.71 ERA/3.96 SIERA over the last four seasons, with an above-average 24.9% strikeout rate.  Berrios’ hard-hit ball numbers are a little inconsistent, but 2021 saw him post the best grounder rate (42.8%) and walk rate (5.8%) of his career.

With this track record, Berrios’ representatives at Wasserman can surely argue that if McCullers is getting $85MM over five years, their client’s extension should be worth well over $100MM, and likely closer to $120MM in order to keep him away from free agency.  Should Berrios post his typical numbers in 2022, he’ll certainly land a nine-figure deal next offseason, and his camp will undoubtedly keep a close eye on how the free agent deals signed by Ray, Stroman, and Kevin Gausman this offseason will raise the bar for the pitching market.

It should be noted that Berrios has already been vocal about his desire to test free agency.  “[I will have been] waiting six years, almost seven, to get where every player wants to be — a free agent, able to maximize our value….We are in a good position, and we’ll see what the best deal is going to be,” Berrios told The Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Phil Miller back in July.  Berrios turned down extension offers from the Twins in the past and also went to an arbitration hearing with the team to determine his 2020 salary.

In short, it might be that nothing short of an overpay on the Blue Jays’ part would convince Berrios to forego his shot at the open market.  Since George Springer is the only Jay guaranteed money beyond the 2023 season, Toronto has plenty of open payroll space to work with, but with some caveats.  The Blue Jays will have to do some spending to replace or re-sign their impending free agents, and the team’s list of future commitments will grow exponentially if Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, etc. are inked to extensions of their own.

Extending Berrios could be a tall order for the Toronto front office, though the team undoubtedly factored this into their plans when they traded for him in the first place.  If a long-term deal can’t be reached, the Jays’ backup plan is surely to recoup draft pick compensation for Berrios via the qualifying offer (assuming the QO rules aren’t changed in collective bargaining negotiations) to help fill the dent left in the farm system by the departures of Martin and Woods Richardson.  While the sting of that trade will be erased if Berrios does help the Jays to some October success in 2022, the club will certainly explore ways to keep Berrios in the fold for more than just one more run at a championship.

Blue Jays Acquire Jose Berrios

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12:02pm: The Blue Jays have announced the trade.

11:31am: The Blue Jays and Twins have a deal in place sending right-hander Jose Berrios to Toronto, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that top pitching prospect Simeon Woods Richardson is part of the return. Infielder Austin Martin, the No. 5 overall pick from last summer’s draft, is also going to Minnesota, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic.

Jose Berrios | Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Berrios, 27, gives the Blue  Jays perhaps the second-best pitcher on this summer’s trade market, trailing only Max Scherzer, who is expected to join the Dodgers later today. Unlike Scherzer, he’s controllable beyond the 2021 season, as he’s only in his second arbitration season. Berrios is earning $6.1MM in 2021 and will be due one more arbitration raise this winter before reaching free agency upon conclusion of the 2022 campaign.

Berrios will join Hyun Jin Ryu and the resurgent Robbie Ray atop the Toronto rotation, comprising what now looks to be a formidable trio. He’s in the midst of one of his finest seasons, pitching to a 3.48 ERA with a career-best 25.7 percent strikeout rate, an excellent 6.5 percent walk rate and a career-high 43.6 percent ground-ball rate. He’s posted those numbers through 20 starts and a total of 121 1/3 frames, standing out as one of the dwindling number of pitchers in today’s game who averages six-plus frames per outing.

Of course, Berrios isn’t simply durable on a per-game basis. He’s been one of the game’s most durable starting pitchers overall, throughout the entirety of his career. He’s never been on the Major League injured list and is currently on pace for what would be his fourth straight season of a full slate of starts. He made 26 appearances back in 2017 — the final season he was optioned to the minors — and has since made 32 starts, 32 starts, 12 starts (a full workload in last year’s 60-game season) and 20 starts so far in 2020.

During that time, he’s never posted an ERA above 4.00 and has pitched to an overall 3.76 mark with a 24.2 percent strikeout rate and a 7.2 percent walk rate. Berrios may not quite be a Cy Young-caliber, top-of-the-rotation ace, but he’s as consistent and durable as it comes for a second/third starter.

The Blue Jays paid a steep price to acquire a year and a half of that consistency. Martin, last year’s No. 5 overall pick, was viewed by many in the industry as the best all-around player in the draft class. It was a legitimate surprise when he slipped beyond the No. 2 overall pick and fell to the Jays with the fifth selection. He’s currently ranked as the No. 16 prospect in the game at MLB.com, No. 21 at Baseball America and No. 23 at FanGraphs.

Martin starred at Vanderbilt in college, hitting .368/.474/.532 in his college career. The Jays dropped him right into Double-A to begin 2021, his first professional season, and it hasn’t looked like he’s missed a beat. In 250 plate appearances, Martin has posted a .281/.424/.383 with a pair of homers, ten doubles, two triples and nine stolen bases. He’s walked at a hearty 14.8 percent clip against a 21.2 percent strikeout rate. That batting line is 32 percent better than league average in an immensely pitcher-friendly Double-A environment, by measure of wRC+.

The main question on Martin is simply one of where he’ll play. He’s split his time evenly between shortstop and center field in Double-A this season. At the time of the draft, some scouts questioned whether he could stick at shortstop in pro ball, but the Jays have been giving him that chance. Even if shortstop isn’t his ultimate home on the diamond, however, most scouting reports on the 22-year-old Martin agree that his athleticism will translate to third base, center field or second base. The general expectation surrounding Martin is that he’ll be an above-average regular regardless of where he settles in on the diamond.

Woods Richardson has had a rougher season as Martin’s teammate in Double-A, but he’s only 20 years old — nearly five years younger than the average age of his competitors at that level. He entered the season widely regarded as a top 100 prospect, and while he’s since dropped off Baseball America’s list following the draft, he still ranks 49th at FanGraphs and 68th at MLB.com.

The Jays initially acquired Woods Richardson from the Mets in the trade that send Marcus Stroman to Queens. He’s made 11 starts in New Hampshire this season and posted a grisly 5.76 ERA, although that number is inflated by a .359 average on balls in play and an abnormally low 58 percent strand rate. Woods-Richardson has walked too many hitters (12.8 percent) but also fanned a third of his opponents so far on the year. Woods Richardson is away from the club right now, pitching for Team USA in the Olympics (as is fellow newly acquired Twins pitching prospect Joe Ryan).

FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen writes that Woods Richardson works with both a four-seamer and a two-seamer, also praising the righty’s changeup and the shape of his curveball. MLB.com’s report praised Woods Richardson’s changeup as the best in Toronto’s system, and the general consensus on the right-hander is that if he can add a little velocity as he continues to fill out, he has the makings of a No. 2 or No. 3 starter.

It’s an impressive haul for the Twins, though the organization has to be disappointed that the season came to this. Minnesota entered the year as defending AL Central champs and hopeful contenders, but their season spiraled out of control early and has yet to recover. That’s prompted the front office to pivot to what certainly looks like it’ll be an accelerated retooling of the roster.

The Twins still have an impressive crop of controllable hitters, and the additions of Martin, Woods Richardson, Ryan and Drew Strotman in their first two trades of deadline season give them four upper-minors talents who could impact the club by 2022 (perhaps 2023, in Woods Richardson’s case). Parting with Berrios means bidding adieu to the best pitcher the organization has developed in more than a decade, but they’ll hope that the recent influx of talent quickly supplements their foundation of young hitters and produces another arm or two of Berrios’ caliber before long.

Blue Jays Are Leading Suitor For Jose Berrios

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With Max Scherzer now likely headed to the Dodgers, Twins right-hander Jose Berrios becomes the clear top starter left on the trade market. The 27-year-old righty is earning $6.1MM in 2021, is controlled through 2022 via arbitration, and is in the midst of arguably his best season yet. Through 121 2/3 innings, Berrios has pitched to a 3.48 ERA with a strong 25.7 percent strikeout rate and an excellent 6.5 percent walk rate. Berrios has been as durable as they come, and while he might not be the bona fide, Cy Young-caliber ace that Scherzer is, he’s a clear option to start in a playoff game for most contenders.

It originally looked as though Berrios was a long shot to move, but the interest in him has been intense. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported yesterday that market for Berrios had exceeded the Twins’ expectations, making a deal increasingly likely. Virtually every contender or fringe contender has inquired, as you’d expect. Not all of them will remain in the mix as talks continue into the eleventh hour of deadline season, so with that in mind, we’ll run down today’s latest Berrios rumblings in this post…

  • The Blue Jays “appear” to be the leading suitor for Berrios at the moment, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets.

Earlier Updates

  • Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North in the Twin Cities tweets that the Twins have at least four offers in hand, coming from teams on both coasts. The Padres, Wolfson adds, “will be in it until the end.” That meshes with last night’s report from AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, wherein he indicated that Berrios is now the Padres’ “primary target.”
  • The Padres, Rays and Mets are among the teams still talking to Berrios this morning, per The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter link). The Twins’ asking price has been too steep for the Mets for weeks, and that appeared to still be the case last night as well. The Rays haven’t been extensively tied to Berrios for long, but MLB Network’s Jon Heyman listed them as one of the most aggressive clubs on Berrios last night. It’s been a whirlwind deadline for the Rays, who’ve added Nelson Cruz but also subtracted some notable pieces in Diego Castillo and Rich Hill. Berrios would immediately become Tampa Bay’s top starter, at least as long as Tyler Glasnow is out. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that both the Rays and Blue Jays are still very much in the running.
  • The Yankees and Mariners also remain in the mix for Berrios, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, who also notes that interest in Berrios has picked up even since last night (Twitter links). It’s been an active deadline in both the Bronx and Seattle, although the Yankees have yet to address their starting pitching. Seattle has added Tyler Anderson, but he’s a rental and more of a back-of-the-rotation arm. Beyond that, with myriad injuries throughout their expected starting staff, the Mariners could certainly use multiple starters.

Jose Berrios Reportedly “Primary Target” For Padres

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With the Padres having narrowly missed out in their efforts to land Max Scherzer, San Diego is turning their attention to the next-best starting pitcher believed to be on the trade market. Twins righty José Berríos is a “primary target” for the Friars in the coming hours, writes AJ Cassavell of MLB.com.

It’s not especially surprising to hear the Padres’ front office is pivoting back to Berríos. San Diego was reportedly focused on Berríos throughout much of the week. That looked to be off the table when the Padres were seemingly on the verge of landing Scherzer. With the latter now likely headed to the division-rival Dodgers, a push for Berríos is apparently back on the docket.

Berríos isn’t the Padres’ only target, though, as Cassavell adds that San Diego could make multiple additions to the starting staff (with or without Berríos included). San Diego did already bolster the bullpen by acquiring Daniel Hudson in a late night deal with the Nationals. It seems the rotation is now the priority, with Cassavell noting that Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are the only locks to pitch in a playoff rotation — should the Padres advance to an NLDS. Berríos, who has a 3.48 ERA/3.74 SIERA over 121 2/3 innings this season, would be an impactful enough arm to join Darvish and Musgrove in that group.

Of course, there’s no shortage of interest in Berríos. The right-hander’s controllable via arbitration through 2022 and making an affordable $6.1MM this season (about $2.1MM of which is still owed). Jon Heyman of MLB Network reiterates that the Blue Jays have “big interest” in Berríos and adds that the Rays and Red Sox are still in the mix. Dan Hayes of the Athletic suggests the Twins have interest in some of the Jays top position player prospects (Austin Martin, Orelvis Martinez and Jordan Groshans among them). The Mariners have also been linked to Berríos, as have the Mets. Recent indications are that New York isn’t likely to land him, though, with the Mets deterred by the Twins’ lofty asking price.

Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox Reportedly Most Active Teams In Jose Berrios Market

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5:44 pm: The Rays, Blue Jays and Red Sox are the most active teams in the Berrios market, reports Heyman, who adds that the division’s other contender, the Yankees, have also checked in. It doesn’t seem likely that the Mets — who have long been interested in Berrios but deterred by the Twins’ asking price — will wind up landing him. The Mets continue to be put off by Minnesota’s demand, hears Andy Martino of SNY, and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com suggests that’s also the case in discussions between the two clubs regarding Pineda.

2:39pm: The Twins have numerous offers in hand for Berrios, per Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic, who add that the market has exceeded the Twins’ initial expectations (Twitter link). A trade is seen as increasingly likely. TSN’s Scott Mitchell tweets that the Blue Jays are “definitely” in the mix for Berrios.

2:34pm: The Twins are getting “bombarded” with offers for Berrios, Nightengale tweets, adding that the Padres in particular are being aggressive in their efforts.

1:58pm: Some teams who’ve spoken to the Twins about Berrios get the sense that they’re more willing to move him now than they were earlier in the summer, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman lists the Dodgers as a team with interest, and, like myriad other recent reports, also indicates the Padres have interest. Dan Hayes of The Athletic recently wrote that the Padres had interest in Berrios, Michael Pineda and Kenta Maeda. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this morning that San Diego is more focused on Berrios than on Max Scherzer.

8:11am: The Twins have already traded away Nelson Cruz, and with an off-day Thursday, today’s focus figures to be entirely on their deadline efforts to reload the club for 2022 and beyond. Jose Berrios is Minnesota’s most coveted trade candidate, and Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that offers for Berrios “have spiked” with the trade deadline now less than 48 hours away.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Mariners have been pursuing a Berrios acquisition this week, with the Twins focusing on one of Seattle’s top pitching prospects (Emerson Hancock or George Kirby) as part of a multi-player return. The two sides aren’t close to a deal, Morosi adds. Both Hancock (2020) and Kirby (2019) were first-round picks in recent Mariners drafts and have pitched at Class-A Advanced this year. Both players have missed time with shoulder fatigue this year, but Hancock returned this week and Kirby is expected back within the next couple of weeks, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweeted a couple days ago.

The Mets, too, have been linked to Berrios throughout the month of July, but all indications to this point have been that they consider the asking price too steep. Indeed, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Mets are “very” interested but also had “sticker shock” when the Twins initially asked for a combination of two top-100 prospects and a young big leaguer. Beyond that, the Mets’ lack of premium pitching prospects may be a problem. Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Mets would perhaps need to involve a third team if they hoped to actually land Berrios. They’ve recently been more connected to rental pitchers.

Of course, virtually every contender or pseudo-contender has checked in with the Twins on Berrios’ asking price, given his affordable $6.1MM salary for the 2021 season as well as his remaining year of arbitration eligibility before free agency. The 27-year-old Berrios is enjoying the best season of an already impressive career, having pitched to a 3.48 ERA with career-best marks in strikeout percentage (25.7) and ground-ball percentage (43.6). His 6.5 percent walk rate is the second-lowest of his career, and the durable right-hander’s current pace would put him in line to land somewhere in the 195 to 200 range in terms of total innings pitched.

Red Sox Among Teams In Mix For Max Scherzer

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3:10 pm: While reports this morning suggested the Padres were more focused on Berrios, the Friars have “intensified” their efforts to land the Nationals ace this afternoon, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link).

11:44am: The Red Sox are indeed in the mix for Scherzer, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that Scherzer is open to a trade to Boston. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, meanwhile, hears that Scherzer would not approve a trade to the Astros or Phillies.

9:54am: Max Scherzer remains the most intriguing trade candidate on the market, and interested parties will get one more look at him before deciding on an asking price. Nats skipper Dave Martinez announced to reporters Thursday morning that Scherzer will start Game 1 of today’s doubleheader against the Phillies (Twitter link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). It seems likely this will be Scherzer’s final start with the Nationals, and it’ll serve as an audition of sorts to prove that his triceps is at full strength; Scherzer was scratched from his Saturday start due to minor triceps discomfort, but an MRI has since come back clean.

With a reported preference to land with one of the three NL West contenders and full no-trade rights to help guide him to a destination he likes, it feels like a matter of when he’s traded rather than one of if. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets that there’s a feeling throughout the organization that a trade will come together today.

That’s sensible, as the Nats want to leave as much time as possible post-agreement to sort out the finer details of Scherzer waiving his no-trade rights. Adjustments to his contract’s salary deferrals or smaller details along those lines could be arranged as compensation for Scherzer waiving his 10-and-5 no-trade protection. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that the Covid outbreak with which the Nationals are currently dealing may have preoccupied some key Nats personnel and slowed the pace of talks, as some expected them to have a deal in place by last night.

The acquisition price for premium rentals (e.g. Nelson Cruz, Starling Marte) has been viewed as steep thus far, and Rosenthal unsurprisingly suggests that Washington has a high price on Scherzer. We’ve yet to see one of the premium rental pitchers change hands, however — perhaps because other clubs want to wait until Scherzer is off the board before pushing their own rental starters.

While the prevailing wisdom at the moment is that one of the Giants, Padres or Dodgers are the favorites to land Scherzer, there are at least a couple other possibilities of note. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden writes that Red Sox ownership has pushed the front office to pursue a deal, for instance. The Sox have already been linked to Scherzer, but they’d be something of a surprise fit, given ownership’s longstanding reluctance to cross the luxury tax threshold. Scherzer would have to be viewed as a player worth making that exception, or the Red Sox would likely have to bolster their prospect package in order to convince the Nationals to pay down the remaining salary on Scherzer’s contract. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, meanwhile, suggests that the Padres are more focused on Minnesota’s Jose Berrios than they are on Scherzer at the moment.

Twins’ Owner: Team “Absolutely Not” Going Into Rebuild

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Anyone who’s even loosely followed the 2021 MLB season knows it’s been a disaster year for the Twins. The American League Central’s last-place club, Minnesota has already traded Nelson Cruz, will likely trade Michael Pineda in the coming days and will surely have interest in several other key pieces. That said, given the team’s payroll space, cost-controlled group of young hitters, solid farm system and other factors, it’s long seemed likely they’ll aim to reload and be competitive again in 2022. Owner Jim Pohlad effectively confirmed that this week in an interview with Dan Hayes of The Athletic.

Asked by Hayes whether this nightmarish season could “change your direction to rebuilding,” Pohlad replied emphatically: “Absolutely not. We want to be in the win window all the time. We expected that to be the case this year.”

Obviously, that didn’t happen for the Twins, who have weathered absences for Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver, Luis Arraez, Max Kepler, Kenta Maeda, Pineda and others. More problematic has been that nearly all of Minnesota’s offseason free-agent expenditures (the since-traded Cruz being a notable exception) have failed to live up to expectations.

The subsequent 43-58 record has positioned the Twins as a clear deadline seller, but Pohlad’s comments today reinforce what was already widely expected: this isn’t likely to be an “everything must go” fire sale. The team is receiving interest in players controlled beyond 2021, most notably top starter Jose Berrios, but the asking price on him has reportedly been high and focused on near-MLB assets. Given Pohlad’s comments and the fact that the Twins zeroed in on Triple-A pitchers in last week’s Cruz trade — both Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman could be options in Minnesota this year — that focus on big-league-ready talent is to be expected.

All of this is particularly worth considering as the clock ticks toward Friday’s 4pm ET trade deadline. For instance, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted this morning that the Twins have had some early talks on Kepler. That was already known after multiple reports linked Kepler to the Yankees last week, but the broader question of Kepler’s general “availability” (or lack thereof) should be considered in conjunction with ownership’s comments. Were the Twins looking to completely start over, players like Kepler, Berrios, Taylor Rogers (prior to his finger injury) and others would be strong trade candidates. As it stands, they’re more long shots with weighty asking prices.

It’s also possible that some of the impending free agents who do seem like locks to move could be flipped and then again pursued in free agency. Pineda, who pitched well tonight in what could be his final start with the Twins, told reporters after the game that Minnesota has come to feel like home and he hopes to remain (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park). A trade still seems overwhelmingly likely, but Hayes tweets that Pineda would have interest in returning for 2022 and beyond even if (or when) he is ultimately traded this week.

Latest On Jose Berrios

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The Twins are discussing Jose Berrios with multiple teams including the Padres and Dodgers, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.  According to SNY’s Andy Martino, the Mets are not one of those other clubs at this time.

Berrios, 27, figures to be wildly popular on the trade market since he’s under team control for 2022 as an arbitration eligible player.  He ranks ninth in MLB with 121 2/3 innings, sporting a 3.48 ERA, 25.7 K%, and 6.5 BB%.  Berrios appears to have little interest in giving the Twins a discount on an extension, so naturally the team is listening to potential trade offers.  Dan Hayes of The Athletic wrote this month, “Early indications are the Twins asked another team that inquired about Berríos for a pre-arb player and two top-100 prospects.”  Speaking of top 100 prospects, Baseball America just updated their list.

In an earlier tweet, Morosi suggested the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Astros, and Phillies “are active in the starting pitching market now.”  But it’s difficult to name any contender that couldn’t push aside their worst starting pitcher for Berrios.

Mets More Focused On Rental Pitchers

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The Mets are in the market for pitching, reports SNY’s Andy Martino, who notes that they’re more focused on rentals than players controlled beyond 2021.  The Mets recently added ageless southpaw Rich Hill, who made his club debut yesterday with a five-inning start, but they remain in the market for pitching of all kinds.  The Mets’ injured list for pitchers is extensive, with Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson, Robert Stock, Noah Syndergaard, Jordan Yamamoto, Robert Gsellman, Stephen Nogosek, Corey Oswalt, and Sean Reid-Foley.  Dellin Betances and Joey Lucchesi are out for the season due to Tommy John surgery, but Carrasco is close to making his Mets debut.

According to Martino, the Mets “intend to check in” with the Nationals about ace Max Scherzer, though such a trade would be a tough pill to swallow for the Nats.  Twins righty Jose Berrios is not a Mets target at this time, says Martino, in fitting with his point that New York prefers rentals so as not to deplete their farm system.

So what might the market for rental starting pitchers look like?  Narrowing to teams with less than a 10% shot at the playoffs according to FanGraphs, Scherzer, Jon Gray, Zach Davies, Charlie Morton, Drew Smyly, Mike Minor, Matt Harvey, Adam Wainwright, Jordan Lyles, Tyler Anderson, J.A. Happ, Andrew Heaney, Jose Urena, Jake Arrieta, Carlos Martinez, Jon Lester, Alex Cobb, Dylan Bundy, Michael Pineda, Danny Duffy, Jose Quintana, Kwang Hyun Kim, and Trevor Cahill fit the bill.  Not all of those pitchers are necessarily healthy or effective, but we’re casting a wide net.

Potential rental relievers include Raisel Iglesias, Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy, Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, Dan Winkler, Steve Cishek, Hansel Robles, Brad Hand, Josh Tomlin, Bryan Shaw, Greg Holland, Yimi Garcia, Alex Colome, Daniel Norris, Tony Watson, Jhoulys Chacin, Mychal Givens, Ross Detwiler, Joakim Soria, Chasen Shreve, Wade Davis, Andrew Miller, Derek Holland, Blake Parker, Shane Greene, and Erasmo Ramirez.

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