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Yankees Have Interest In Mike Minor

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WEDNESDAY: New York’s “not very involved” in the Minor derby, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

MONDAY: As they continue to weigh a variety of possible pitching additions, the Yankees are taking a look at Rangers lefty Mike Minor, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). But that interest comes with a few complications.

The Yanks are one of ten teams to which Minor can block a swap pursuant to his contract, per Rosenthal. Minor’s willingness to waive his rights isn’t known, but he certainly doesn’t sound particularly anxious to leave town.

Minor’s continued strong work makes his contract rights quite appealing. He’s earning just $9.5MM this year and next, making the 31-year-old a cost-efficient target. Pinching pennies isn’t strictly necessary for the Yankees, but the organization is as aware of value concepts as any and has an obvious desire to avoid unnecessary luxury tax complications (now and in the future).

It’s not surprising, then, that the Bronx Bombers have sent notable front-office member Tim Naehring out to see Minor’s past two outings. That could be interpreted as a tell, though Rosenthal rightly points out that Naehring and the team’s other trusted evaluators have also put in plenty of time watching other arms as well.

It is still tough to guess just what direction the Yankees will take. If Luis Severino is able to make it back, even if not in a full-blown starter’s capacity, the club will have enviable depth with James Paxton and Domingo German featuring as capable postseason starters and a variety of other multi-inning hurlers on hand. It could certainly stand to add a marquee arm to front the staff, but it’s fair to wonder if that’s really what Minor is. There’s unquestionably a rotation need in 2020 as well, but perhaps that shouldn’t be the priority right now. The price for Minor will be steep — in addition to other demand, the Rangers will value his rights for next season — and there is an argument to be made that the Yanks ought instead to utilize their resources on other targets, either posting less in prospect value for a rental hurler or somehow concocting a bigger move for a truly top-shelf starter.

Interest In Nomar Mazara Reportedly “Picking Up”

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There was considerable hype surrounding outfielder Nomar Mazara when the Rangers promoted him to the majors in 2016. Mazara was one of baseball’s elite prospects at the time, but three-plus years later, he hasn’t lived up to the billing. While Mazara is now seemingly falling out of favor with the Texas organization, he remains intriguing to other franchises. With the July 31 trade deadline just a week away, interest in Mazara “is picking up,” specifically from teams that could be contenders in 2020, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes.

Although Mazara’s well into his major league career, he’s still just 24 years old. He’s also making a fair $3.3MM salary now and under control through 2021 via arbitration. That’s the good. The bad: Mazara’s more a big name than a big producer at this point.

Mazara smacked 20 home runs in each of the previous three seasons and has totaled 12 this year, but his overall numbers are lackluster. Mazara entered the year a .258/.320/.425 hitter with a subpar 92 wRC+ and just 1.5 fWAR across 1,720 plate appearances. His output this season has been even worse. Through 381 trips to the plate, Mazara has slashed .255/.307/.438 (86 wRC+) and accounted for a replacement-level fWAR (0.0). Southpaws flummoxed the left-handed Mazara during the prior three seasons, which has again been the case in 2019. They’ve held him to a horrific .200/.231/.345 line with 30 strikeouts against four walks thus far.

Not only has Mazara come up short in the batter’s box, but he has left something to be desired as a defender. In almost 4,000 innings of work as an outfielder, Mazara has totaled minus-20 Defensive Runs Saved, though his minus-2.3 Ultimate Zone Rating hasn’t been nearly as woeful. He’s at minus-5 and minus-1.9 in those categories this season, adding a more respectable minus-1 in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric.

Statcast is also more bullish on Mazara as a hitter. For one, Mazara’s .340 expected weighted on-base average far outpaces his .314 real wOBA. He also ranks either a bit or well above average in hard-hit percentage, expected batting average and expected slugging percentage. But that may not be of much consolation to the Rangers, who have time and again seen Mazara fail to meet expectations over the years. And now that the slumping Rangers are falling out of playoff contention, they could deem Mazara expendable in the coming days.

Rangers Likely To Place Joey Gallo On IL

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Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo’s right wrist injury is “likely” to lead to a stint on the IL, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. The extent of the injury isn’t yet clear, but there’s concern within the team that Gallo fractured the hamate bone in his hand, per Grant. If so, he’ll need surgery.

Already amid a tailspin, a significant injury to their best player is the last thing the Rangers need. The club has surprisingly been in the playoff hunt for most of the season, but after losing nine of 10, it’s at .500 (51-51) and 6 1/2 games out of a playoff spot.

The fact that Texas has been in the hunt for most of the year is a tribute to Gallo, who has been one of the majors’ top players in 2019. Gallo missed time earlier in the season because of an oblique injury, but he has still slashed .253/.389/.598 (146 wRC+) with 22 home runs in 297 plate appearances. Factoring in his work in the field (4 Defensive Runs Saves, 5.5 Ultimate Zone Rating), Gallo has posted a career-high 3.3 fWAR.

If Gallo heads to the IL for the second time this year, the Rangers will recall Willie Calhoun from Triple-A Nashville to replace him, according to Grant. The Rangers demoted Calhoun a week ago, to his chagrin.

Injury Notes: G. Sanchez, Domingo, Gallo

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A few late-breaking injury notes from Tuesday night’s action…

  • The Yankees won an instant classic over the Twins, but New York received unwelcome news immediately after the game. Catcher Gary Sanchez, who left early, could be on his way to the IL with a groin injury, manager Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch of MLB.com and other reporters. Sanchez has been in a brutal slump of late, but his .229/.299/.508 line (105 wRC+) with 24 home runs in 328 plate appearances is still clearly above average for his position. Backup Austin Romine hasn’t been close to that effective, while third-string catcher Kyle Higashioka hasn’t hit at all in the majors dating back to 2017. The Yankees also have veteran Erik Kratz at the Triple-A level, but he’s not on their 40-man roster.
  • Mariners outfielder Domingo Santana will undergo an MRI on his right elbow, Corey Brock of The Athletic tweets. The 26-year-old’s elbow has troubled him since the All-Star break, Brock notes. Santana has drawn trade interest with the July 31 deadline coming up, but the Mariners’ chances of dealing him could evaporate with an IL placement. Regardless, he has been one of the non-contending M’s top hitters in 2019, having slashed .273/.342/.472 (119 wRC+) with 19 HRs across 437 PA. Santana’s also cheap ($1.95MM salary) and eligible for arbitration for another two years. However, Santana’s atrocious work in the outfield (minus-15 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-14.4 Ultimate Zone Rating) would surely tamp down his trade value.
  • Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo is battling right wrist soreness and is likely to undergo an MRI on Wednesday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. An X-ray didn’t reveal a break, though Gallo’s wrist “has been bothering him for a while,” Grant writes. That would help explain Gallo’s significant decline in production in July. Gallo owned an incredible 1.109 OPS at the end of June, but he’s down to a still-great .987 in that category.

Rangers Option Ronald Guzman

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First baseman Ronald Guzman has been optioned to Triple-A Nashville, the Rangers announced Tuesday. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by right-hander Pedro Payano, who’ll start tonight’s game for Texas. Logan Forsythe is getting the nod at first base for Texas tonight.

It’s undoubtedly a dejecting outcome not only for Guzman himself but also for the organization, as the team had hoped that Guzman would blossom into an everyday player after getting an extended MLB audition as a 23-year-old in 2018. Last season, Guzman’s bat was below average, but he held his own with a .235/.306/.416 batting line and 16 round-trippers in 428 plate appearances.

This year, however, Guzman’s production has gone backward, as he’s batted just .193/.282/.396 in 227 plate appearances. That said, there’s also some reason to be optimistic about a rebound. Guzman isn’t striking out at a higher clip than he did in ’18 — though his 28 percent clip is still a bit high — and his walk rate has actually improved from 7.7 percent to 11.0 percent.

Statcast indicates that his hard-hit rate has improved a bit, and Guzman has already nearly matched his 2018 total of “barreled” balls in just over half as many plate appearances as he received last year. He’s lugging around an ugly .285 weighted on-base average, but based on the quality of the contact he’s made, Statcast feels he’s been decidedly unlucky (.324 xwOBA). That, to be clear, doesn’t indicate that Guzman should be a force at the plate, but perhaps his struggles aren’t likely to continue at this great a rate.

The Rangers and Guzman will hope that a reset in a lower-pressure setting will restore his confidence and give him a needed mental break. He’s currently mired in an awful 2-for-30 slide in the month of July and hasn’t had a multi-hit game since June 25. Guzman still has a long way to go before he comes close to living up to the potential that prompted Baseball Prospectus to rank him as the game’s No 94 prospect prior to the 2018 season, but he’s yet to celebrate his 25th birthday, so there’s still plenty of time for him to turn things around.

Taking a step back, the Guzman dilemma isn’t an entirely unfamiliar problem for the Rangers. They’ve seen several young hitters — e.g. Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Willie Calhoun — all struggle to varying extents, either immediately upon debuting or sputtering out after some early promise. It’s a particularly glaring issue, as one can’t help but wonder where the Rangers would be in the standings if that group of players had played up to their abilities thus far. Instead, the quartet of Guzman, Odor, Mazara and Calhoun have performed at sub-replacement level in 2019. And the Rangers, who’ve now dropped eight games in a row, look more like potential sellers than the likely buyers they appeared to be coming out of the All-Star break.

Rangers’ Jose Leclerc, Chris Martin Drawing Interest

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It wasn’t long ago that the Rangers looked as if they were likely to buy at the July 31 trade deadline, but the club’s now plummeting down the standings. Losers of seven straight, the Rangers sit 50-49 and six games back of a wild-card spot. The club could sell before the deadline as a result, with Mike Minor, Hunter Pence and Danny Santana representing a few of its players who have drawn reported interest of late. Add right-handed relievers Jose Leclerc and Chris Martin to the group, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

Between Leclerc and Martin, the former clearly boasts more trade value. Leclerc’s a season removed from performing like one of the game’s very best relievers, and he’s controllable for the foreseeable future at team-friendly prices. After Leclerc’s dominant 2018, the Rangers locked him up to a four-year, $14.75MM guarantee with club options for $6MM (2023) and $6.25MM (’24).

Although the 25-year-old Leclerc hasn’t been the force he was last season, he has largely moved past a dismal opening to 2019. Leclerc owned an ERA upward of 7.00 through April, causing the Rangers to remove him as their closer, but that number is now a more palatable 4.20. The hard-throwing Leclerc’s 3.44 FIP is far better, while his 13.6 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 comprise an above-average K/BB ratio (3.09).

Martin – another high-velocity option – has been effective this season, but the 33-year-old is down to his last couple months of team control. He’s making $2.25MM to close out the two-year, $4MM contract he signed with the Rangers in 2018 after pitching in Japan over the previous two seasons.

Martin walked just over a batter per nine innings last year in his stateside return, but the figure has shrunk to a tiny .73 this season. He’s also striking out 9.97, helping Martin to the majors’ leading K/BB ratio (13.67) among qualified relievers. Martin has also posted an attractive ERA (3.16), though FIP (4.06) isn’t nearly as bullish. It’s also worth noting home runs have become an extreme problem for Martin, who has yielded 1.95 per nine after averaging a bit more than one over the same span in 2018. Oddly enough, Martin’s newfound HR troubles have come despite a massive groundball increase. He has induced them 49 percent of the time in 2019 after doing so at a 40.5 percent clip last season.

Rangers Place Shawn Kelley On IL, Select Rafael Montero, Designate Carlos Tocci

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The Rangers announced an interesting trio of roster moves today. Veteran hurler Shawn Kelley has been moved to the 10-day injured list with what is described as biceps soreness.

The organization has selected the contract of righty Rafael Montero to fill the open active roster spot. To clear 40-man space, outfielder and former Rule 5 pick Carlos Tocci was designated for assignment.

Kelley, who has served as the Rangers’ closer, had increasingly seemed to be a trade candidate. The club adds that an “MRI showed no acute injury,” which seemingly suggests that Kelley isn’t facing a significant malady. But he’ll be sidelined through to the trade deadline, which will make it quite a bit more difficult for the Texas org to obtain a return sufficient to prompt a deal.

While he has had his ups and downs in recent years, Kelley has mostly been effective since the start of the 2018 campaign. He’s through 33 innings of 3.00 ERA ball this year, with 8.7 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9. With a $2.5MM salary this year and $2.5MM club option for 2020, Kelley’s contract is a fairly appealing one. The option also gives the Rangers an alternative to a trade.

The other moves are intriguing as well. Montero, 28, was once a prized hurler in the Mets organization but his fortunes were sinking even before he missed the ’18 season for Tommy John surgery. It remains to be seen whether he can resurrect his career, but the Rangers will be glad to have a look after watching Montero rack up a shiny 31:2 K/BB ratio in 18 1/3 minor-league innings.

As for Tocci, the 23-year-old was bumped from the 40-man after the organization put in a big effort to acquire him. The club carried him for all of the 2018 season to secure his rights through the Rule 5 draft, with Tocci struggling badly in limited playing time. Long considered a project with the bat, he’s slashing .246/.317/.312 in 360 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

Rays Have Looked Into Availability Of Hunter Pence

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The Rays have checked in with the Rangers about the availability of outfielder/DH Hunter Pence, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The possibility of a match was first noted by MLB Network Radio’s Jim Duquette.

It’s not known how serious the talks are, but it does seem reasonable at this point to presume that Pence can be had. The Rangers had dabbled with pursuit of a postseason spot, but a slide has left the club staring up at an all-but-insurmountable 6.5-game gap from the second Wild Card spot. Given the circumstances, the Texas club is likely to dangle its pending free agents — if not a few other assets.

On the Rays’ side, the organization has seen its own postseason position erode steadily over the course of the season. It’s hard to imagine them catching the division-leading Yankees. It’ll take a big effort even to win a Wild Card spot. The two positions are held presently by the Indians and Athletics, with the Rays one game back and the Red Sox also posing a serious threat.

While the Tampa Bay team is obviously going to attempt to improve, it doesn’t have sufficient incentive to truly go for broke. That makes it hard to imagine the Rays giving up too much future value for rental assets. In the case of Pence, however, the acquisition cost will likely be rather manageable.

Pence has had a heck of a bounceback season at 36 years of age. He’s through 232 plate appearances of .290/.349/.581 hitting with 15 home runs. Statcast credits the veteran with a strong 43.1% hard-hit rate and 91.4 mph average exit velo, along with a 10.5 degree launch angle that’s about double his numbers in recent seasons. Pence has outperformed his contact quality, but not by a huge amount (.387 wOBA vs. .365 xwOBA).

That said, it’s still worth wondering whether Pence will be able to sustain this kind of outburst. And he hasn’t been trusted with many innings in the outfield after several seasons of somewhat poorly reviewed glovework. His contract is quite affordable — $2MM with $1.25MM in incentives — but there probably isn’t an abundance of demand. Unless National League teams see Pence as an option to slide back out to the field rather than functioning mostly as a DH, as he has in Texas, the primary pursuers would seem to come from the American League ranks. Yet most of the AL contenders have accounted for their bat-only plate appearances.

The fit with the Rays isn’t flawless, either, but it’s possible to imagine how Pence would fit on the roster. In terms of existing DH possibilities, the club has a rotating cast of possibilities on the right side but no clear bat-only piece. In terms of left-handed hitters, Ji-Man Choi has been increasingly crowded out by Nate Lowe at first base. Choi is a strong option when facing right-handed pitching but has struggled mightily in limited opportunities against southpaws. Pence, who has long maintained limited platoon splits and thrived both with and without the platoon advantage this year, could share time with Choi or replace him entirely as a primary DH.

AL West Notes: Kelley, Peacock, Puk

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Shawn Kelley will undergo an MRI after feeling what the Rangers described as right biceps tendon soreness during today’s game, manager Chris Woodward told MLB.com’s Alyson Footer and other reporters.  Kelley left today’s game without throwing a pitch, as the veteran righty’s injury developed during his warmup pitches after being called out of the bullpen during the eighth inning.  Over 33 innings this season, Kelley has posted a 3.00 ERA, 8.73 K/9, and a 6.4 K/BB rate, so he’ll be sorely missed in the Texas bullpen if an injured list placement is required.

Kelley’s loss could be doubly problematic for the Rangers since the 35-year-old profiled as a potential trade chip for a Texas club that seems to be falling out of contention.  After surprising many by staying within striking distance of the wild card hunt, a seven-game losing streak has dropped Texas to a 50-49 record and a deficit of 6.5 games between the Rangers and the A’s for the last AL wild card berth.  With such players as Mike Minor and Danny Santana already drawing trade interest from rival teams, Texas is running short on time to prove to the front office that it can contend.

Some more from around the AL West…

  • In an interview on the Astros’ pregame show today (hat tip to the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome), general manager Jeff Luhnow projected that Brad Peacock will likely be out of action until roughly the “middle of next month, realistically.”  Peacock’s recovery from shoulder inflammation hit a setback last week, and the right-hander is now looking at an injured list stint of at least six weeks (he hit the IL on June 28) if Luhnow’s mid-August timeline ends up being accurate.  Peacock’s extended absence has only further deepened the Astros’ need for pitching reinforcements, as he was expected to return from the IL last week.
  • Top Athletics pitching prospect A.J. Puk will be promoted to the organization’s Triple-A affiliate, according to Melissa Lockard of The Athletic (Twitter link).  After Tommy John surgery forced Puk to miss all of 2018, the 6’7″ left-hander got back into action in June, posting a 5.02 ERA, 13.8 K/9, and 3.14 K/BB rate over 14 1/3 combined innings at Double-A and high-A ball.  They aren’t exactly dominant numbers for Puk, though between his long layoff and perhaps some bad luck (four homers in those 14 1/3 IP), the A’s are clearly encouraged enough to give Puk his first taste of Triple-A competition.  The hard-throwing Puk would very likely have been in the big leagues last season had he avoided injury, and is still on track to make his MLB debut this season if he stays healthy.  While the A’s will surely be as cautious as possible with one of their top young hurlers, Puk has the potential to be a very intriguing addition to Oakland’s bullpen or perhaps even the rotation as the A’s continue to chase another postseason berth.
  • In AL West news from earlier today, the Angels officially released Matt Harvey, and the Mariners acquired righty Matt Magill in a trade with the Twins.

Danny Santana Drawing Trade Interest

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At the All-Star break, the Rangers sat on the brink of playoff contention, looking like a team that could be a surprise bet to conservatively buy at the trade deadline. However, any hopes of contention look to be quickly vanishing, and the front office may not have to debate whether to buy or sell. Sunday’s loss makes it seven straight games that the Rangers have dropped, leaving the club just a game over .500 and now in fourth place in the division.

Should the Rangers elect to trade off veteran pieces and regroup in hopes of building a future contender, utilityman Danny Santana may be among the most coveted Rangers on the market. Per J.P. Morosi of MLB Network, the 28-year-old has garnered interest from several teams around baseball and could fetch a nice return for Texas. Though no specific teams are named, it seems reasonable to assume that most every team in playoff position would welcome a versatile offensive weapon. As Morosi notes, that interest may be heightened in light of the Royals’ steep asking price for Whit Merrifield, who would be the most attractive utility player on the market if the Kansas City weren’t so reluctant to let him go.

Santana, for his part, emerged as one of a number of minor-league signings fueling the Rangers’ surprise first-half performance. Formerly of the Twins and Braves, Santana appeared to have peaked as a rookie, when he posted a .824 OPS as a 23-year-old. After that, Santana’s OPS never climbed above .606 in a single season—until now, with an evolving approach leading to an offensive breakout. After posting below-average exit velocity numbers in his first years in the Majors, balls have left Santana’s bat at an average of 91.1 mph this season, a mark that ranks in the 83rd percentile, per Baseball Savant. Not only is he hitting the ball harder, but he is elevating it, leading to a career-high 13 home runs and a .250 ISO. With average launch angles of 3.4˚ in 2017 and 9.1˚ last season, that number has jumped to 12.3˚ this season. He likewise ranks favorably in hard-hit rate and expected batting metrics, indicating that his current performance cannot be easily dismissed as a fluke.

To be sure, though, Santana has outperformed those expected batting marks to some degree: his actual wOBA (.381) is nearly 40 points higher than expected (.342) and the same can be said for his batting average (.320 actual versus .282 expected), perhaps in large part thanks to an astronomical .399 BABIP. In that respect, then, teams may be hesitant to pencil Santana in to match his first half production. Those who inquire on Santana are essentially looking at a half-season’s worth of production, making Santana a more risky investment than players with long track records of success. That may depress his value somewhat, but Rangers general manager Jon Daniels should still be able to get a solid return, especially considering that Santana received virtually no attention when he signed in Texas.

However, those expected marks are still more than enough to attract some interest from contending clubs. Santana’s ability to play across the diamond might lower the offensive bar somewhat; teams in the hunt for a World Series won’t acquire Santana with the expectation that he plays every day at one position—rather, he might be deployed a la Chris Taylor or Marwin Gonzalez, hunting favorable matchups and spelling injured or resting regulars.

Santana has appeared at six different positions for the Rangers this season, providing passable (if unspectacular) defense. If defensive metrics like DRS and UZR are to be believed, Santana fits best as a middle infielder, largely grading out below average in the outfield. However, that doesn’t mean that he can’t provide value as an outfielder—giving his manager another option is valuable in and of itself, and Santana doesn’t have to play any one position exceptionally as long as he can play several capably. He’s also stolen 12 bases at a roughly 70% clip, which is an added bonus for Santana’s skillset.

Of course, money is always of interest in trade discussions, and Santana’s value only grows from a financial perspective. Agreeing to a minor-league deal with the Rangers prior to the season, his salary comes in at the league minimum, meaning that interested teams will owe essentially negligible money to Santana, who is controllable through 2021. His combination of affordability and the potential for long-term value—in addition to on-field performance—should make him an attractive candidate for plenty of teams between now and July 31. As Rangers position-players go, Santana may be the most valuable one who is likely to be dealt.

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