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Jose Leclerc

José Leclerc Shut Down With Lat Strain

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6:18pm: Leclerc will be shut down from throwing for an undermined amount of time, reports Martín Gallegos of MLB.com. He’ll go for a second opinion next week and seems to be in for an extended absence.

5:00pm: The Athletics announced a series of roster moves today, including the previously-reported promotion of prospect Nick Kurtz, which is now official. They also recalled pitchers Grant Holman and Hogan Harris. In corresponding moves, they optioned infielder Max Muncy and left-hander Jacob Lopez, as well as placing righty José Leclerc on the 15-day injured list with a right lat strain.

Leclerc was put into last night’s contest but departed after just seven pitches due to shoulder soreness. Manager Mark Kotsay told reporters, including Jessica Kleinschmidt of Baseball America, that it was more of a strain than soreness.

That makes today’s IL stint fairly unsurprising but it’s still unwelcome for the A’s. Leclerc was the club’s big offseason bullpen investment, as they gave him $10MM on a one-year deal this winter. Throughout his career, he has generally been able to rack up punchouts, even if he gives out a high number of free passes. At this point, he has 369 1/3 major league innings with a 3.34 earned run average, 30.8% strikeout rate and 13.1% walk rate.

He’s off to a rough start so far this year but it’s only nine innings and it’s possible that the shoulder has been bothering him even before this IL placement. His fastball is averaging 94.2 miles per hour this year, a drop from last year’s 95.3 mph. All his other pitches are down by similar amounts.

The A’s surely hoped that he would be a key setup guy for closer Mason Miller but the early results have been shaky and he’s now going to be out of action for at least a couple of weeks. Guys like Tyler Ferguson and Justin Sterner have been given some leverage work early on and will try to hold onto those roles while Leclerc is out.

Photo courtesy of Joe Nicholson, Imagn Images

Athletics Sign José Leclerc

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The Athletics announced that they have signed right-hander José Leclerc to a one-year deal. It’s reportedly a $10MM guarantee for the former Ranger. Fellow righty Will Klein has been designated for assignment to open a roster spot.

Leclerc, 31, jumps across the American League West. He had spent his entire career with the Rangers up until now. During his time in Texas, he has shown flashes of excellence as a reliever. In general, his career has been defined by a strong ability to get strikeouts but also some poor control.

Overall, he has 360 1/3 innings under his belt to this point, having allowed 3.27 earned runs per nine. His 31.2% strikeout rate is a very strong number but his 13.2% walk rate is much higher than average.

That lack of control has made his performance somewhat inconsistent. He was once the primary closer for the Rangers, having earned 12 saves in 2018 and 14 more the year after. But he missed essentially all of the next two seasons. A right teres muscle tear limited him to just two appearances during the shortened 2020 season. He then required Tommy John surgery in March of 2021, which wiped out that whole year.

Since coming back, he hasn’t been able to retake the closer’s role, with just 12 saves over the past three years combined. However, his control has actually been better lately, at least relative to his own previous performance. He had a 14.9% walk rate as of his Tommy John surgery. Since coming back, he has only walked 11.3% of batters faced. That’s still a high number, as league average is usually in the 8-9% range, but it was a noticeable improvement.

From the start of the 2022 season to the present, he has a 3.36 ERA, 29.2% strikeout rate and, as mentioned, an 11.3% walk rate. His 3.60 FIP and 3.58 SIERA are marginally higher than his ERA, likely because his .271 batting average on balls in play and 76.5% strand rate are a bit on the fortunate side. He also formed a notable portion of the Texas relief corps during their World Series run, tossing 13 2/3 innings with a 3.29 ERA during the 2023 postseason.

His ERA did jump to 4.32 in 2024, but that doesn’t seem to have been his fault. His .314 BABIP was actually on the high side last year. His 30.9% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate were pretty close to what he has done before. His 3.48 FIP and 3.26 SIERA both suggest he was pretty similar to the guy he was going into the year.

In addition to the strikeouts, Leclerc has often been good at avoiding damage. Statcast had his hard hit rate at 30.7% last year, which placed him in the 96th percentile of qualified pitchers. That was actually above his career rate of 29.3%. His 87.4 mile per hour average exit velocity was in the 84th percentile last year. Again, his career average of 86.4 mph is even better. The pitch velocity on his four-seam fastball and sinker both averaged around 95 miles per hour, while he also mixed in a slider, cutter and changeup.

It’s an interesting buy-low move for the A’s, since they are grabbing Leclerc after a rough year in the ERA department, but with encouraging numbers under the hood. They already have one of the best closers in the league in Mason Miller, so they can use Leclerc in a setup capacity.

The club has been surprisingly aggressive this winter in bolstering the roster. They gave a big deal to sign free agent right-hander Luis Severino, acquired lefty Jeffrey Springs from the Rays and signed outfielder/designated hitter Brent Rooker to a five-year extension.

Cynically, this likely has a lot to do with the club having to spend its revenue-sharing money in order to avoid a grievance from the MLBPA, but they are making some notable improvements nonetheless. The team went 32-32 in the second half of 2024 after graduating a lot of young talent to the majors, so it’s not impossible for them to be a surprise contender in 2025, especially with their new additions. Though if that doesn’t come to pass and they are still shy of contention, Leclerc could then be traded prior to the summer deadline as long as he’s having a strong year, since he’s only on a one-year deal.

Leclerc’s pact takes the club’s payroll to $74MM and their competitive balance tax number to $106MM, per the calculations of RosterResource. Reporting has indicated the club needs a CBT number of $105MM to avoid that grievance, but a final CBT calculation doesn’t come until the end of the year. The A’s might want to push it a bit further, just in case they end up trading players like Leclerc at the deadline and knocking that number down. Otherwise, their deadline dealings would have to be fairly revenue neutral.

Klein, 25, was one of three players that the A’s just acquired from the Royals in the Lucas Erceg trade at last year’s deadline. He didn’t have much big league experience prior to the deal and the A’s mostly kept him on optional assignment. He currently has 7 2/3 innings of MLB experience with nine earned runs allowed.

That’s obviously not a huge sample size and the A’s surely acquired Klein based on his larger sample of work in the minors. His numbers on the farm are vaguely Leclerc-esque, since he has been able to get strikeouts but has also given out plenty of walks. He has 221 1/3 minor league frames under his belt with a 5.16 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate and 16.2% walk rate.

The punchouts are attractive but even those faded in 2024. He tossed 43 Triple-A innings on the year between the two organizations, with a 22.4% strikeout rate and the walk rate still up at 16.7%. The 3.77 ERA wasn’t bad but a .234 BABIP and 75.4% strand rate surely helped him there, which is why he had a 5.42 FIP.

The Erceg deal was considered light by many observers at the time. It can often be difficult to grade a trade so soon after it’s consummated but it doesn’t bode well for the A’s that they are now potentially moving on from one of the three players they got in return.

They will now have a week to figure out Klein’s fate, whether that’s a trade or something on the waiver wire. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so that leaves five days for trade talks. He still has a couple of option years left, meaning any acquiring club could potentially keep him in the minors until he shows improved control.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the $10MM guarantee.

What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?

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The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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Andrew Heaney Exercises Player Option, Rangers Exercise Club Option On Jose Leclerc

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When the Rangers attempt to repeat their 2023 World Series championship next season, they’ll have two more familiar names on the roster. The club announced today that left-handed veteran Andrew Heaney exercised his $13MM player option for the 2024 campaign, while the club picked up a $6.25MM team option on the services of righty reliever Jose Leclerc for next season.

Heaney, 32, was regarded as a borderline candidate to opt out of his final year in Texas and return to the open market this offseason. MLBTR readers were polled on Heaney’s upcoming decision last month, with 62% of respondents suggesting that Heaney ought to exercise his player option for the 2024 campaign and return to the Rangers against 38% suggesting he return to the open market this offseason in search of a more lucrative deal.

It’s certainly an understandable decision. After signing in Texas on the heels of a strong albeit injury-shortened campaign with the Dodgers last year, Heaney managed to stay healthy in 2023 but saw his results take a turn for the worse: while his 147 1/3 innings of work in 2023 more than doubled the 72 2/3 innings of work he posted in LA, his ERA ballooned from 3.10 last year up to 4.15 in 2023 while he struck out just 23.6% of batters faced after striking out a whopping 35.5% with the Dodgers. Given the downturn in results and his lengthy injury history, it was reasonable to wonder if Heaney would simply be better off hoping for a stronger platform season in 2024 rather than wading into a deep class of free agent starting options.

With Heaney locked in as a member of the Rangers pitching staff for 2024, it leaves Texas with a quality, mid-rotation veteran option available to them as a potential Opening Day rotation option next season. With Jordan Montgomery and Martin Perez both heading to the open market and ace righty Jacob deGrom rehabbing Tommy John surgery to open next year, Heaney’s return could theoretically round out a Rangers starting five that already contained Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, and Dane Dunning. With that being said, both Heaney and Dunning have seen plenty of time in relief roles in the past, leaving the door open for potential additions to the club’s starting group if they look to re-sign Montgomery or add another front-end starter to pair with Scherzer and Eovaldi atop the club’s rotation.

As for Leclerc, the Rangers’ decision to retain the 29-year-old righty is hardly a surprising one. After struggling in 2019 and missing time in 2020 and 2021 due to a shoulder strain and Tommy John surgery, Leclerc has been nothing short of excellent for the Rangers the past two seasons, with a 2.75 ERA (155 ERA+) and 3.67 FIP in 104 2/3 innings of work the past two seasons. 2023 in particular was a strong season for the righty, as he posted a 2.68 ERA and 3.62 FIP while striking out 28.8% of batters faced. Given those numbers, retaining Leclerc to help anchor the club’s bullpen next season was something of a no-brainer, particularly given the club option Texas holds for his services in 2025.

The bullpen figures to be a major area of focus for the Rangers this offseason. The club’s 4.77 ERA out of the bullpen in 2023 was the seventh-worst figure among all big league clubs, and the Rangers stand to lose flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman and veteran set-up options Will Smith and Chris Stratton to the open market this offseason. While the club has some interesting young arms like left-handers Brock Burke and Cody Bradford who could be relied on to help cover innings, the club will need to restock its relief corps with late-inning options who can surround Leclerc. Of course, a hypothetical addition to the starting rotation could help improve the club’s bullpen as well by kicking either Heaney or Dunning into a multi-inning relief role.

Rangers Place Jose Leclerc On 15-Day Injured List

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The Rangers have placed right-hander Jose Leclerc on the 15-day injured list due to a sprained right ankle, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link).  The IL placement is retroactive to June 21.  Right-hander Yerry Rodriguez is getting the call from Triple-A to take Leclerc’s spot on the active roster.

Leclerc has a 3.42 ERA over 23 2/3 innings this season, on the strength of some very strong soft-contact numbers, an above-average 25.3% strikeout rate, and an elite 34.3% whiff rate.  However, Leclerc’s work has been undermined by his 15.2% walk rate, which ranks among the worst in the league.  The metrics more or less match up with Leclerc’s numbers over his past full Major League seasons, with the lack of control limiting his ability to be a truly reliable high-leverage arm in the Texas bullpen.  As such, Will Smith took over closing duties from Leclerc earlier this season.

The Rangers signed Leclerc to a four-year, $14.75MM extension in March 2019 in the hopes that he would develop into a top-tier bullpen arm, and that extension got off to a bad start given that Leclerc missed almost all of the 2020 and 2021 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Texas has two club option years attached to the deal, beginning with a $6MM option ($750K buyout) on Leclerc’s services for the 2024 season.  For now, the team’s only concern is on getting the righty back on the mound, as there isn’t yet any indication if Leclerc could be facing a minimal absence or if his sprain is a longer-term concern.

After struggling earlier in the season, the Rangers’ bullpen has stabilized to some extent, even though the relief corps is still a relative weak link on a team that has been otherwise firing on all cylinders.  With Texas leading the AL West and looking like strong contenders to return to the postseason, relief pitching figured to be at the top of the Rangers’ wishlist heading into the trade deadline even prior to Leclerc’s injury.

Upcoming Club Option Decisions: AL West

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Last week, MLBTR took an early look at offseason option decisions facing teams in the National League. We’re continuing our division by division series moving through the Junior Circuit. To round out the series, we move to the AL West. There are only five players in the division whose contracts contain options but they’re spread among every team aside from the Mariners.

Previous posts: NL East, NL Central, NL West, AL East, AL Central

Houston Astros

  • Hector Neris: $8.5MM club option ($1MM buyout); converts to player option with 40 appearances in 2023

Neris’ option is presently a club provision, but it’s not likely to be for much longer. His free agent deal with the Astros allowed him to convert the third-year option into a player provision in a few ways — one of which was by making a combined 110 appearances between 2022-23. The bullpen workhorse pitched 70 times last year, leaving him just 40 shy of the mark entering 2023. (As is common for provisions like these, he’ll also have to pass a physical at season’s end.)

Manager Dusty Baker has already called upon Neris 25 times this season. He needs just 15 more outings to turn this into a player provision. That’s a lock barring a major injury, with Neris potentially triggering the mark by the All-Star Break.

That could prove lucrative, as he’s building a strong case for another multi-year free agent deal. Neris carries a 1.13 ERA over 24 frames. While he’s obviously not going to keep preventing runs at quite that pace, he’s fanning over 31% of opponents and picking up swinging strikes on a huge 15.4% of his offerings. Even nearing age 34, Neris could push for a two-year deal in the $15-20MM range, where the likes of Joe Kelly and Chris Martin have landed in recent seasons.

Los Angeles Angels

The Halos signed Loup to a two-year, $17MM free agent deal over the 2021-22 offseason. He was effective enough in year one, though the Angels probably expected better than a 3.84 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate over 58 2/3 innings. That’d be a marked improvement over Loup’s early results this year, however. The 35-year-old has allowed 12 runs (10 earned) with 11 strikeouts and six walks over 13 1/3 frames. Los Angeles looks likely to take the buyout.

Oakland A’s

Oakland took a low-cost flier on Rucinski last winter. They signed him to a $3MM guarantee with a promised rotation spot after he’d been an effective starter in South Korea for four seasons. The 34-year-old righty hasn’t had a chance to get on track. He began the year on the injured list with a hamstring strain. He returned to make four starts and was tagged for 22 runs with a ghastly 6:14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18 innings. Rucinski went back on the IL a few weeks ago with an illness. It’s been a disastrous first couple months and the option is trending towards a declination.

The A’s acquired Piña as a veteran complement to Shea Langeliers in the Sean Murphy trade. He’d been limited to five games last year thanks to a left wrist injury that required surgery. Complications with the wrist flared up in Spring Training and he’s spent this season on the IL as well. The A’s are likely to cut him loose at year’s end.

Texas Rangers

At his best, Leclerc looks like a quality high-leverage reliever. He misses tons of bats and routinely pushes or exceeds a 30% strikeout rate. Yet he’s paired those whiffs with plenty of free passes. Control has become especially problematic this year, as he’s dished out walks to almost 16% of opponents. Leclerc is carrying a sub-3.00 ERA but benefitting from a .256 average on balls in play.

Leclerc started slowly last season after working back from Tommy John surgery. He caught fire down the stretch, leading Texas to exercise a $6MM option for 2023. There’s still time for him to repeat that pattern but he’ll have to dial in the strike-throwing to do so.

Quick Hits: Rangers, Slater, Groshans, Cabrera

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The start of spring training always brings plenty of reports of players experiencing ’tightness’ or ’discomfort’, and while many of those wind up being rather minor, the Rangers in particular are dealing with plenty of seemingly minor ailments this spring, as Levi Weaver of The Athletic reports.

Star winter signing Jacob deGrom was experiencing left-side tightness early in camp, but is scheduled to now throw his first live bullpen session on Wednesday, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Fellow off-season recruit Nathan Eovaldi is also experiencing some left-side tightness, and is taking a few days off. Jon Gray was a late scratch from Friday’s spring game with back tightness, while Jake Odorizzi is dealing with arm fatigue and is a bit behind in his schedule. It doesn’t stop there, as Jose LeClerc and Owen White are both feeling neck tightness.

There doesn’t appear to be a great deal of concern within the Rangers, and instead it seems the team is just being extra cautious so early in the spring. “When we started spring, in addressing the pitchers especially, we said, ‘Hey, in the early part here, let us know. Anything going on, we don’t want any major setbacks. We can back off at this time.’ Spring training can be pretty long, so in the early part, you’re going to be a little bit more cautious,” manager Bruce Bochy said Friday.

Here’s some more bits and pieces from around baseball:

  • Austin Slater had an MRI on his elbow but it came back clear, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The Giants announced during the week that Slater would rest for a week with elbow neuritis. The news that the MRI is clear is certainly a positive one for Slater, and it seems it won’t be long before he’s able to make his spring debut for the team. Slater hit .242/.337/.392 with seven home runs across 259 plate appearances for San Francisco last season, and looks set to serve as a bench bat for the Giants with Joc Pederson, Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski to get the bulk of the outfield reps.
  • The Marlins are giving youngster Jordan Groshans time at first base this spring, as Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports. Groshans typically handled the other infield spots coming up through the minors, and spent just 40 previous innings at first. Groshans is on the fringes of cracking Miami’s opening day roster, but if he can show he can handle first adequately it would certainly provide a boost to his chances. A first round pick by the Blue Jays in 2018, Groshans came over to the Marlins in the Anthony Bass deal last year. He got a brief cup of coffee in the big leagues, hitting .262/.308/.311 across 65 plate appearances. With Garrett Cooper, Joey Wendle, Luis Arraez and Jean Segura fairly well locked in as Miami’s infield starters, there’s no obvious path to a starting job there but the Marlins bench is a lot less certain, providing Groshans with a solid chance to stick on the active roster to begin the season.
  • Speaking of positional changes, the Yankees are planning to give Oswaldo Cabrera some time in center field this spring, Aaron Boone told the YES Network’s broadcast during today’s game against the Rays. Cabrera impressed during his rookie year, posting a respectable .247/.312/.429 line with six home runs across 171 plate appearances. Yet it was his defense that really stood out, as Cabrera, an infielder for almost all of his career, took to the outfield extremely well, earning nine Defensive Runs Saved for his work on the grass. That’s put him firmly in the race with Aaron Hicks, Estevan Florial and Rafael Ortega to be the Yankees’ opening day left fielder. It does seem more likely he winds up in a utility role though, covering the infield, corner outfield spots, and now, perhaps, center field.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Rangers GM Chris Young Discusses Closer Options

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The Rangers were active this offseason in overhauling their rotation for 2023. Martín Pérez was set to hit free agency but was given a $19.65MM qualifying offer that he accepted to return. The club also signed free agents Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi, in addition to acquiring Jake Odorizzi from Atlanta. Those five and incumbent Jon Gray give the club six solid options for five spots. However, the bullpen hasn’t gotten nearly as much attention. Aside from that rotation surplus perhaps pushing Odorizzi into a long relief role, the club’s current relief options are holdovers and veterans on minor league deals.

The bullpen wasn’t an especially glaring weak point for the Rangers last year. Their collective 3.72 ERA was ranked 12th out of the 30 clubs in the majors. However, they lost Matt Moore and his 1.95 ERA last year when the lefty became a free agent at season’s end. They also don’t have an established closer, with various players having been given the job in recent years only to be felled by injuries and/or underperformance. The club’s saves leader in 2022 was Joe Barlow with 13, though the last one came in June as he spent much of the second half of the year on the injured list. As the club was holding Rangers Fan Fest this weekend, Levi Weaver of The Athletic discussed the situation with general manager Chris Young, who listed José Leclerc, Jonathan Hernández, Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy and Brett Martin as some of the candidates to take over the closing duties, though Martin won’t be a short-term option since he recently underwent shoulder surgery that’s could wipe out his entire 2023 campaign.

Leclerc, 29, already had the closer’s role once upon a time. He racked up 12 saves in 2018 and 14 in 2019. However, his ERA jumped from 1.56 in that former season to 4.33 in the latter. He then missed most of the next two seasons due to injuries, including Tommy John surgery in March of 2021. He returned to the Rangers in June of last year and allowed five earned runs in his first three outings but posted a 2.01 ERA the rest of the way. He seemed to retake the closer’s job over the final months of the season, earning seven saves between August and September. He’s arguably the frontrunner and Young said Leclerc “could easily be the closer.”

Hernández, 26, is on a similar trajectory to Leclerc, in the sense that he underwent Tommy John in April of 2021. Prior to going under the knife, he had a nice breakout in 2020. He tossed 31 frames that year with a 2.90 ERA, 24.8% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 45.7% ground ball rate. After missing 2021, he returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA in 30 1/3 innings. His control didn’t fully come back to him, as he walked 13% of batters faced, but he kept the ball on the ground at a 62.4% clip. His closing experience is quite limited, with his four career saves all coming in a two-week stretch from late July to mid-August of last year. Teams generally prefer their closers to be reliable strikeout guys, which might work against Hernández since he only punched out 20.6% of opponents last year. Perhaps he can get some punchouts back now that he’s further removed from the surgery, and Young expressed his belief that Hernández could take on the role.

Kennedy, 38, would provide a more experienced option, though that won’t necessarily make him more reliable. A long-time starter, he moved to the bullpen in recent years but has seen wild fluctuations in his performance. He racked up 30 saves for the Royals in 2019 with a 3.41 ERA, but then had an ERA of 9.00 in the shortened 2020 campaign while being limited by injury to just 15 appearances. He joined the Rangers in 2021 and got back on track, registering a 3.20 ERA and saving 26 games between them and the Phillies after a midseason trade. But with the Diamondbacks last year, his ERA shot up to 5.36 while his strikeout rate plummeted to 19% after being at 27.2% in the prior season.

Duffy, 34, is another veteran option, though in a much different way. He has just one save, which came back in 2015. Most of his career has been spent as a starter, with just 30 relief appearances scattered over his time in the big leagues. He’s also coming off a lengthy absence, having last appeared in the majors in July of 2021. A flexor strain put him on the shelf at that time and he wasn’t able to rehab in time to pitch at all in 2022. The error bars on his 2023 are quite wide, since he posted a 2.51 ERA when last healthy in 2021, but he might need time to get back on track after being down for so long.

One big wild card in the club’s bullpen is left-hander Brock Burke. Young was asked about the southpaw and said he could “potentially” take the closer job and that it’s something he’s discussed with pitching coach Mike Maddux. Burke somewhat quietly had a tremendous breakout campaign in 2022. He made his MLB debut with six starts in 2019 but then missed all of 2020 due to shoulder surgery. He returned to the mound in 2021 but was kept in the Triple-A rotation, where he registered a 5.68 ERA. Last year, however, he took on a multi-inning relief role in the big leagues and dominated, posting a 1.97 ERA in 82 1/3 innings over 52 appearances. He struck out 27.4% of batters faced while walking just 7.3%. It might be tantalizing to see what he could do in a typical single-inning relief role but it sounds like the club doesn’t want to push him in that direction, with Young suggesting Burke could eclipse 100 innings this season. “I’m not sure he gets that in a closer’s role. Or maybe it’s a different type of closer’s role; maybe it’s not as conventional. I don’t want to get too far ahead because we’re not committing to that. It could be a traditional type of closer, but certainly we view Brock as a valuable member of our bullpen and he can pitch a number of different roles that could help us win games.”

Burke himself admits that he held out hope of returning to the rotation until the club revamped it this offseason. “I feel like my role in the bullpen, with the starters we have this year, is going to be very helpful,” he said. “I’m good with whatever they’ve got. If it’s one inning, two innings, break-up innings. Last year, I definitely would have said more innings the better, at one (point) but after getting used to going out there for one inning, I was more comfortable, so I hope that this year, whatever role the team needs me for.”

It seems the Rangers are keeping an open mind for the time being and will let the chips fall where they may over the next few months. Health and effectiveness in spring and the early parts of the season will surely help the club’s decision-makers navigate the upcoming campaign.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

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