The Cardinals signed free-agent right-hander Miles Mikolas to a two-year, $15.5MM guarantee in what became one of the wisest moves of the 2017-18 offseason. Although hardly a bank-breaking commitment, it was somewhat of a gamble for St. Louis. After all, Mikolas was an unspectacular major leaguer with the Padres and Rangers from 2012-14 who then spent three years pitching in Japan. Mikolas was dominant overseas, though, and he carried that excellence into 2018 in St. Louis.
During his first year with the Cardinals, Mikolas pitched to an outstanding 2.83 ERA/3.28 FIP in 200 2/3 innings. While Mikolas only struck out 6.55 batters per nine, he walked a mere 1.3 and induced ground balls at a 49.3 percent clip. Mikolas’ stinginess in the walk and fly ball departments helped lead to a 4.3 fWAR, which ranked 12th among major league starters.
Sold on Mikolas’ output last season, the Cardinals signed him to an extension worth a guaranteed $68MM for four years back in February. That deal will keep Mikolas under wraps through 2023, but unfortunately for the Cardinals, it’s not looking like a great move so far. Facing the lowly Marlins on Wednesday, Mikolas allowed five earned runs on eight hits in five innings, thereby raising his ERA to 4.83 in 78 1/3 frames this season. His 4.74 FIP isn’t much better.
Mikolas’ 2019 woes haven’t come because of significant declines in the strikeout, walk, groundball or BABIP categories. Those numbers look almost the same compared to last season, though there has been a noticeable drop in his strike rate. Nobody posted a higher strike percentage than Mikolas’ 69.3 a year ago, but the figure has fallen to 65.8 in 2019. Meanwhile, Mikolas’ strand rate has decreased by a large margin (from 76.2 percent to 70.9), and he has been far more prone to surrendering long balls.
After yielding home runs on a meager 9.2 percent of fly balls in 2018, Mikolas is all the way up to 19.7 this season. It hasn’t helped that Mikolas’ infield fly rate has plummeted from 9.8 percent to 4.2. At the same time, his hard-hit rate has climbed by greater than 5 percent, according to FanGraphs, while Statcast indicates his average exit velocity against has hopped from 85.4 mph to 88.2. Consequently, Mikolas’ weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against has shot from .271/.286 to .339/.347.
So why the newfound contact management issues? For one, Mikolas isn’t fooling as many hitters this year, as they’ve chased 5 percent fewer pitches than they did last season. And left-handed hitters have been especially tough on Mikolas, who held them to a .309 wOBA last season but has seen the number jump to .396 this year. As seen in these FanGraphs heatmaps (2018, ’19), he’s not staying away against lefties as well he did last season.
Worsening matters, Mikolas’ once-elite slider has been ineffective, and he has leaned on it less as a result. While Mikolas’ slider was one of the most valuable pitches of its kind a year ago, per FanGraphs, it has taken colossal steps backward this season. Batters posted a measly .201/.231 wOBA/xwOBA versus the offering in his first year in St. Louis, but they’re up to .395/.329 in the current campaign. If we’re to take that 66-point gap in face value, there has been some poor fortune involved. However, it simply hasn’t been close to as lethal as it was in 2018, perhaps owing to a 1 mph drop in velocity and somewhat of a change in typical location (heatmaps via FanGraphs: ’18, ’19).
Contrary to last season, when Mikolas’ slider helped him perform like one of the majors’ top starters, troubling signs abound for the 2019 version of the righty. His struggles are a key reason why the Cardinals have gotten off to a mediocre start and are on track to miss the playoffs for a fourth straight season. That’s not what the Redbirds had in mind when they bought high on Mikolas over the winter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Flashes of Phil Hughes.
Giving an extension to a guy who could’ve easily been identified as a potential one year wonder never seems to be a very wise move.
Risk vs reward. It’s easy to say that in hindsight but if he had a similar season this year, he’s likely looking at doubling that contract
Im not sure if he’d double $68MM without drastically improving from last year.. If he had another low walk, low HR, and sub 3 ERA I still think he’ll have trouble topping $100MM
Seems like a bit of an exaggeration those numbers aren’t appalling.
Called it.
That extension was extremely unnecessary. How do you not wait and see if he can repeat in his 2nd year back from Japan?
My exact thought.
A completely unnecessary gamble for sure. If Mikolas was even 75% the pitcher he was last year, he would have taken the same extension later this season. But he has been flat all year, and while it’s his turn to adjust to the league, he may not adjust, and that extension hasn’t even started yet. I honestly don’t think he’s gonna be a bust, but he’s paid no dividends so far this year.
Like I said about Archer, a guy has a nice year and people expected him to produce. Bad timing for an extension for an average pitcher
That’s not very fair to say about Archer. The man has produced in his big league career more than one season.
He has not fallen off. Last year was an anomaly because hitters hadn’t seen him in 4 years. His “stuff” is average, and Mozeliak is a FU..ING IDIOT for giving him a huge contract after 1 year. How that bow tied dolt still has a job is a mystery.
His stuff isn’t average, that is laughable. His location just hasn’t been the same. Hitters are attacking his first pitch fastball, which he got away with much of the time in 2018. He is adjusting, but he hasn’t been able to dominate counts as a result. At times his slider has left him, but recently it has been better. Mostly his outings have been marred by a bad location on a couple of pitches, and he has been hurt by them. He just has to pitch better. It isn’t a lack of stuff. Some regression was expected. Time will tell on the contract. He is better than his record shows. He will likely be better in the last 2/3 of the season.
Themed, paging themed
Honestly those numbers don’t seem that different to me… nor would I be too upset with the era/fip, if not for the fresh contract and expectations I suppose… but that’s my opinion as an outsider.
Chris Correa could’ve warned them about the extension, oh wait, nevermind
mikolas isn’t hungry anymore after getting his big payday
you know what else has fallen off? this site. where is the rumor here.
You are the worst
This sight hadn’t stopped posting rumors at all. They’ve added lots of original content AND IT’S STILL FREE.
Mo extended 2 guys with a year to go at FA prices.. And as a cards fan, im scared to say im not exactly sure which ll turn our worse
I predicted this during the off season and people called me crazy. There was waaaay too much contact made off Him him last season and he got lucky. No way he would replicate that or come close to it
You did it again!!! Great call. Still batting 1.000 on predictions.
But, but, but, the algebra said he was going to be Tom Seaver reincarnated!! Lolol
“An overreach of a signing. For 1 season of work. They should have waited. Signing wasn’t urgent or necessary. Another questionable long term deal by the Cardinals. Add Fowler and Cecil, whom I was shocked to see what he received from St Louis.”
– Me after the extension.
Cardinals develop well and find diamonds in the rough. When it comes to free agency and extensions, well, I’d say they are better at player development.
Here is the thing.. his K/BB ratio is still excellent. He is giving up way too many runs because he has lost some confidence because his command has failed him. He isnt hitting the four corners with conviction like last year so he appears to be avg at best. He does not display the same poise as before and is visibly unsure of himself.
Yeah things came easy for him last year. Mostly he just has to pitch better. A couple of dominate outings and the confidence should return. It isn’t like he hasn’t had a few in 2019, just not often enough.