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Blue Jays Set Opening Day Roster

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The Blue Jays announced their Opening Day, 30-man roster this morning. Left-hander Brian Moran and right-hander A.J. Cole were both selected to the 40-man roster and will make the club. Toronto also placed righty Chase Anderson on the 10-day IL (retroactive to July 20) with an oblique strain and opted to carry infielder Santiago Espinal, lefty Anthony Kay and right-handers Thomas Hatch and Jacob Waguespack.

Notably absent is right-hander Nate Pearson, one of the game’s elite pitching prospects. He’s on the team’s three-man taxi squad (along with southpaw Ryan Borucki and catcher Caleb Joseph) but won’t accrue service time in that role. He’ll reportedly be called up next week, when the Jays will be able to promote him while extending their club control of him for an additional season (as has long been expected).

Moran, 31, is the older brother of Pirates third baseman Colin Moran. He made his big league debut at 30 years of age with the Marlins last season, pitching 6 1/3 innings while yielding three runs with a 10-to-2 K/BB ratio. A seventh-round pick in 2009, Moran has had quite the odyssey to the Majors, twice taking to the independent circuit as a showcase to get back into affiliated ball. But he carries a career 3.67 ERA with 11.5 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 176 1/3 Triple-A frames and will now get his second opportunity in the Majors.

Cole, 28, is a former top prospect who’s yet to find his footing despite multiple MLB chances. He’s seen action with three teams in parts of five seasons but posted a pedestrian 4.86 ERA and 5.03 FIP in 174 innings. Cole had some success both with the Nats in 2017 and the Indians last year, logging identical 3.81 ERAs in both years. He’s averaged better than a strikeout per frame in the big leagues but has also surrendered an average of 1.8 homers per nine innings pitched.

The Jays don’t need to make any corresponding transactions to add Moran and Cole to the 40-man. The team recently placed Breyvic Valera on the restricted list after he was unable to leave his native Venezuela and report to Jays Summer Camp in Toronto. The club also has Brandon Drury, Jonathan Davis, Wilmer Font and Elvis Luciano on the Covid-19 IL, and none of the four will count against the team’s 40-man roster while on that list.

The Jays Turned A Free Agent Whiff Into An Elite Pitching Prospect

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The 2016 season was a pivotal year for the Blue Jays. Fresh off an ALCS loss to the Royals in 2015, the Jays entered the year with reigning MVP Josh Donaldson set to play out his age-30 campaign and a series of notable free agents, headlined by Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. They’d surrendered two MLB-ready arms — Daniel Norris and Matthew Boyd — for a David Price rental the prior summer and parted with another top pitching prospect (Jeff Hoffman) to escape their commitment to the declining Jose Reyes and swap him out for Troy Tulowitzki. Some of the dreaded “closing window” narratives were surrounding the club, and the Jays were clearly in win-now mode.

Toronto again made the playoffs, again won a Division Series matchup over the Rangers … and again fell to an AL Central club in the League Championship Series — this time the Indians. The offseason came around, and Toronto made issued a pair of no-brainer qualifying offers to Bautista and Encarnacion, who were two of the top bats on that winter’s market.

From the begining, Encarnacion seemed to be the bigger target. Bautista had dropped some jaws in Spring 2016 when talking about his asking price on a long-term deal, but Encarnacion was younger and seemingly more affordable. Toronto was aggressive early in the winter, reportedly putting forth a four-year offer that carried in the vicinity of $80MM of guaranteed money. There were some expectations that winter that Encarnacion could best that mark — we at MLBTR pegged him for four years at a slightly higher annual rate — and his camp seemed to prefer to explore the market before taking that offer. That decision blew up in Encarnacion’s face, though, as Toronto pivoted almost instantly and signed Kendrys Morales to a three-year, $33MM deal. By Nov. 18, it appeared Encarnacion had been replaced.

There were still some rumors about a potential reunion even after Morales was signed, but it never seemed likely that the Jays would commit to Morales at DH and Encarnacion at first base — tying up long-term dollars in a pair of sluggers best suited for DH work. Encarnacion drew varying levels of interest from the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers, but in the end, his market bizarrely came down to a bidding war between two of the game’s smaller-payroll clubs: the Athletics and the Indians.

Oakland likely saw a chance to add a premium bat at an affordable rate. Encarnacion’s market had collapsed to the point where he was reportedly mulling a shorter offer with a roughly $25MM annual value (presumably a two-year deal) with the A’s. The Indians, fresh off a World Series loss, were in go-for-it mode with extra cash thanks to that deep postseason run. Encarnacion signed a three-year, $60MM deal with Cleveland that contained a fourth-year option which would get him to the $80MM mark he’d previously passed up.

The Jays took some heat from the deal both among media pundits and their fans. Encarnacion was the clear better player and ultimately cost less than twice what Toronto gave Morales. And from an on-field perspective, those criticisms were 100 percent valid. Over the first two years of each player’s three-year pact, here’s how they performed:

  • Morales: .249/.318/.442, 49 home runs, 40 doubles in 1079 plate appearances (103 OPS+, 102 wRC+; 0.8 bWAR, -0.4 fWAR)
  • Encarnacion: .252/.358/.490, 70 home runs, 36 doubles, two triples in 1248 PAs (123 OPS+, 123 wRC+; 4.7 bWAR, 3.3 fWAR)

Neither one played out the third year of his contract with the team that signed him. Morales was traded to the Athletics on the eve of Opening Day 2019, and Encarnacion had been moved to the Mariners in a complex three-team deal that sent Carlos Santana back to Cleveland with Yandy Diaz and others landing in Tampa Bay.

Many onlookers will say that the Encarnacion camp misread the market after their initial talks with teams. Some would argue that it was the Jays who misread things when they pivoted to Morales so quickly. You can argue that both parties failed to properly evaluate the free-agent landscape.

Encarnacion got his $60MM and then signed for another $12MM with the White Sox this winter, so he ultimately didn’t fall much shy of that reported four-year, $80MM sum. With the benefit of hindsight, it looks like the Jays came away with the short end of the stick — at least until you consider the compensatory draft pick they netted when Cleveland inked Encarnacion. Because the guarantee was greater than $50MM, the Jays’ comp pick landed between Round 1 and Competitive Balance Round A. That pick proved to be No. 28 overall, which Toronto used to select right-hander Nate Pearson.

Not only is Pearson now the runaway top Blue Jays’ prospect — he’s one of the best pitching prospects on the planet. The 23-year-old ranks among the 10 best prospects in baseball at Baseball America, MLB.com and FanGraphs, drawing considerable praise for his blistering triple-digit heater and a deep arsenal of secondary pitches. When ranking Pearson as baseball’s No. 8 overall prospect this winter, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote that he’s personally seen Pearson’s slider climb as high as 95 mph, adding that the pitch generally sits in the low 90s. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com write that Pearson has “as high a ceiling as any pitching prospect in the game.”

It’s true that Pearson has yet to demonstrate the ability to make 30 starts in a season, although that’s due largely to a fractured forearm sustained when he was hit by a comeback line drive. Pitchers who throw this hard will always give some onlookers a red flag, and Pearson did have a screw put into his right elbow during high school. He was healthy in junior college, though, and the Jays diligently kept his innings count down in 2019 after he threw just 22 innings in 2018. Pearson reached 101 2/3 frames last year, spinning a dominant 2.30 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9 and a ground-ball rate near 40 percent. He also topped out at Triple-A in his first full, healthy pro season and is widely expected to make his MLB debut in 2020.

Not every draft pick is guaranteed to be a hit, as evidenced by the Jays’ actual, organic first-round pick in the same 2017 draft that produced Pearson. Shortstop Logan Warmoth, selected out of UNC six picks prior to Pearson, has managed a .255/.332/.346 batting line in 947 pro plate appearances. He was a high-end draft prospect but doesn’t currently rank inside Toronto’s top 30 farmhands at MLB.com or their Top 38 at FanGraphs. Not exactly ideal for a recent first-rounder.

Luckily for the Jays, Encarnacion’s decision not to take their four-year offer — which would’ve run through the 2020 season — both saved them some cash and gave them a second bite at the first-round apple in 2017. And thanks to their scouting department’s decision to take a chance on a towering, flamethrowing righty in spite of a high school elbow scare, the Jays have a potential ace in the making who is on the cusp of reaching the big leagues.

Blue Jays Notes: 2015 ALDS, Borucki, Pearson, Ryu

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In a piece that any Blue Jays fan will want to read, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi chatted with right-hander Anthony Bass about what it was like to be on the other side of Toronto’s stunning ALDS comeback against the Rangers in 2015. Bass wasn’t on Texas’ ALDS roster, Davidi notes, but he was on hand as a member of the taxi squad and experienced the stunning defeat first-hand. Bass chronicles the manner in which tensions began to boil from Game 1 of the series all the way through the baffling (but within the rules) play that allowed Rougned Odor to score on a throw back to the pitcher and the three errors that set up Jose Bautista’s iconic bat flip a half inning later. Bass called Bautista’s bomb “a dagger” and likened the Rangers’ clubhouse in the wake of that defeat to a morgue. Joining the Jays on a waiver claim nearly a half decade later didn’t conjure up any bad memories for Bass, who explained that he was simply “excited about how much the organization was happy to have me.” It’s an excellent first-hand look back at one of the most epic games in recent memory and a welcome diversion from our current baseball-free landscape.

Some more notes on the Jays…

  • Although the Blue Jays shut down left-hander Ryan Borucki in Spring Training due to tightness in his left elbow, but manager Charlie Montoyo revealed today that Borucki is feeling “great” and hasn’t had any setbacks in working his way back from that hiccup (Twitter link via Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith). The 26-year-old Borucki should be a candidate for the fifth spot in the rotation behind Hyun-Jin Ryu, Chase Anderson, Tanner Roark and Matt Shoemaker in a dramatically overhauled Jays rotation. Borucki broke into the Majors with 97 2/3 innings of 3.87 ERA/3.80 FIP ball in 2018, but elbow troubles limited him to just 6 2/3 innings last year.
  • Of course, many Blue Jays fans are more curious about exactly when uber-prospect Nate Pearson will arrive in the Majors. General manager Ross Atkins touched on that subject a bit when stepping in as the host for Gregor Chisholm’s reader mailbag at the Toronto Star this week. Asked how the delayed season will impact Pearson, who was expected to be on an innings limit in 2020, Atkins explained that rather than stick to a rudimentary and “rigid” innings limit, the organization is more focused on “monitoring fatigue, workload, and effort” with all of their pitchers but perhaps particularly with Borucki and Shoemaker (who is returning from a torn ACL that cost him most of the 2019 season). Asked whether with hypothetical advance knowledge that the season would be up in the air, the Jays still would have still signed Ryu to a four-year pact, Atkins indicated that the signing was as much about 2021 and beyond as 2020 and doubted the Jays’ offseason plans would’ve radically altered. Other topics include the upcoming draft, Atkins’ own day-to-day routine during the shutdown and the ways in which his own approach to player development has evolved over the years.

Prospect Faceoff: Pearson v. Mize

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There might not be two finer right-handed pitching prospects in baseball than the Blue Jays’ Nate Pearson and the Tigers’ Casey Mize. At least a few notable prospect outlets essentially have the pair neck and neck. Baseball America ranks Pearson as the game’s seventh-best farmhand and has Mize at No. 13. FanGraphs puts Pearson at No. 8, Mize 16th. And MLB.com slightly favors Mize, rating him seventh and Pearson eighth.

Between the two, Pearson seems to be closer to making his major league debut. The 23-year-old, whom the Blue Jays chose 28th in the 2017 draft, dazzled in spring training before the game shut down as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Pearson fired seven innings of one-run, two-hit ball with 11 strikeouts and three walks, flashing triple-digit heat along the way. Carving up the competition isn’t anything new for the 6-foot-6, 245-pound Pearson, who just last season combined for a 2.30 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 and averaged 97 mph on his fastball in 101 2/3 innings divided among the High-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels. It was the first extensive pro year for Pearson, who tossed a meager 1 2/3 frames in 2018 as he dealt with a back injury and a fractured ulna.

Whether Pearson will be handle a starter’s workload over the long haul is one of the few questions surrounding him. He only averaged a little over four innings per appearance in 2019, and Baseball America writes, “The fact that Pearson throws with so much velocity on every fastball also gives some scouts concerns about whether that’s a durability risk.” If Pearson can hold up, though, he clearly has the potential to evolve into a front-line starter at the MLB level.

Mize, 22, has ace upside in his own right. He was the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft and has lived up to the billing in the minors thus far. Mize doesn’t throw as hard as Pearson (his typical fastball clocked in at 93 mph in ’19), but he was just about untouchable last year in High-A (0.88 ERA over 30 2/3 innings) before earning a promotion to Double-A. Mize continued to wow at the second-highest level of the minors, where he recorded a 3.20 ERA and 8.69 K/9 against 2.06 BB/9 in 15 starts and 78 2/3 frames; however, Mize did miss a few weeks with shoulder inflammation, and the Tigers put an early end to his season to preserve him for future years. He returned during the spring with four innings of three-hit, two-run pitching, notching six strikeouts and a pair of walks.

If health doesn’t fail either of these hurlers in the coming seasons, baseball fans could be treated to another couple of electrifying arms. Which of the two would you take as a building block? (Poll link for app users)

Blue Jays Focused On “Development” Of Nate Pearson

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It’s never wise to get too excited over a few spring outings. But already hyped Blue Jays prospect Nate Pearson has been awfully impressive, racking up six strikeouts in three hitless innings while pumping triple-digit heat. Suppose he keeps this up?

Toronto GM Ross Atkins faced the question today: is there any chance that Pearson shows so much that he cracks the Opening Day roster? As Arden Zwelling of the Sportsnet.ca tweets, Atkins didn’t exactly offer a direct answer to that question … though his words certainly suggested that the club is not likely to deviate from its pre-spring plan.

Per Atkins, the Jays “are entirely focused on [Pearson’s] development. And a big part of his development is ensuring he has ever chance to increase that workload in a logical and smart way.”

That’s a nod to the fact that Pearson, one of the game’s very best pitching prospects, has still not thrown more than 101 2/3 innings in a professional campaign owing to an injury-busted 2018 season. And he only made it to Triple-A for three starts.

The Atkins comment may be oblique, but it seems there’s only one reasonable interpretation. If Pearson still requires “development” and a planned-out workload expansion, he’s not going to be considered for an Opening Day gig. As Zwelling wrote recently, the original plan was for Pearson to open at Triple-A. Nothing about what Atkins said today suggests any other outcome.

We have seen teams take differing approaches to situations such as this. Quite a few organizations have declined to change their plans even after watching a breakout Spring Training from a top prospect, resisting the allure in favor of service-time and other considerations. See, e.g., the Cubs and Kris Bryant. But that’s not an inevitable outcome. Last season, the Padres decided to carry Fernando Tatis Jr. north out of camp. Seven years ago, the dearly departed Jose Fernandez forced the Marlins’ hands.

In this case, fans that pine for a bold decision from the Blue Jays front office are almost certain to be disappointed — at least in the short run. The Jays did make some long-awaited rotation additions over the winter, so it’s not as if there’s a glaring hole in the staff at the moment. If circumstances warrant, it stands to reason that Pearson could push into the MLB picture later this year. In the meantime, Toronto fans will have to hope that the patience pays off — all while enjoying some of the other intriguing young players on the roster.

AL East Notes: Pearson, Orioles, Rays, Chavis

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Blue Jays’ top prospect Nate Pearson and his triple-digit fastball blitzed through three minor league levels in 2019, but Pearson is likely to begin the season in Triple-A, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The 23-year-old only briefly reached Triple-A Buffalo at season’s end in ’19, and while his overall 2.30 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 0.7 HR/9 marks are impressive, Pearson acknowledges that he may have to wait a bit for his MLB debut. “Obviously, I want to break with the team out of spring training,” he tells Davidi. “The odds are that may not happen. I’m expecting to go out to triple-A and put up some good numbers and hopefully get a call-up sometime next year.” As Davidi explores, Pearson was on an interestingly structured workload limit in 2019 and will likely have his innings monitored again in 2020 after logging 101 frames a year ago.

More from the division…

  • The Orioles, as currently constructed, will head into the season with plenty of questions around the infield, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Rio Ruiz didn’t seize the opportunity in 2019, and while prospect Ryan Mountcastle should debut at some point next summer, there’ve been plenty of questions regarding his ultimate position on the diamond. Hanser Alberto has experience there but figures to factor in more prominently at second base. Non-roster invitee Dilson Herrera will get a look at the hot corner, but he’s not even a lock to make the club — let alone to log regular innings anywhere. There’s ample room to add a veteran option if they see fit — Matt Duffy, Logan Forsythe, Brock Holt and others remain available — and the O’s did pick up a veteran option at shortstop in Jose Iglesias. But free-agent spending has been negligible during the early stages of Baltimore’s rebuild, so it shouldn’t be assumed that any sort of move is on the horizon.
  • The Rays could use openers much less frequently than in recent seasons, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio. With Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough fronting a deep group of pitchers, there’s less urgency for manager Kevin Cash to get creative at the beginning of games. Beyond that quintet, two-way player Brendan McKay could be in line for some starts as well, although Toribio notes it’s possible he returns to Triple-A Durham to start the season.
  • Michael Chavis logged starts at first, second, and third base as a rookie for the Red Sox in 2019. He’s preparing for more of the same in 2020, with some outfield time also potentially on the table, he tells Chris Cotillo of MassLive. That versatility should come in handy for the Sox, who face particularly uncertain mixes at first and second base. There are myriad low-cost options available in free agency who could be brought in as insurance, but no slam dunk everyday players remain on the open market at those positions. Chavis hit .254/.322/.444 (96 wRC+) with 18 home runs in a decent debut season.

Blue Jays Notes: Ryu, Boras, Shapiro

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The Blue Jays have remade their pitching staff this winter with the additions of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson and Shun Yamaguchi. Along with the return on Matt Shoemaker and the development of Anthony Kay, Trent Thornton, Ryan Borucki and Nate Pearson, the Blue Jays have plenty of options for their 2020 rotation. It doesn’t come together, however, without Ryu at the top. With that in mind, let’s check in on some of the factors that brought the Korean southpaw to Toronto…

  • To remember the last time one of Scott Boras’ clients signed with the Blue Jays, he had to go all the way back to the mid-eighties. Bill Caudill signed a two-year, $2.37MM deal to play the 1985 and 1986 seasons in Toronto. Caudill is now one of a couple ex-clients to work for Boras. But until Hyun-Jin Ryu’s four-year, $80MM deal, the Blue Jays were one of Boras’ favorite teams to pick on, per the Athletic’s John Lott. It wasn’t personal, of course, Boras simply believes Toronto’s market should make them a top-10 team capable of signing top free agents while retaining their own homegrown stars – a trend he’s starting to see with the current Toronto regime. And of course, it behooves Boras to push potential large market teams to open their wallets.
  • As for Ryu’s choice to join the Blue Jays, the decision largely came down to where he wanted to raise his young family. That said, Toronto’s early and persistent interest also helped bring Ryu north of the border, per the Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath. Long-term security wasn’t necessarily a driving factor for Ryu, though securing a four-year deal for the 32-year-old certainly counts as a win for Boras. Team President Mark Shapiro spoke on Ryu’s importance to the community, saying: “It was more recognizing what an incredibly international city Toronto is, very aware of the Korean population here, both in students and business and what a tightknit community it is. And so feeling like it would be a great place for Ryu and his family to be and feeling like it would be a great synergy with Toronto and Canada, in general. That was a consideration — not a driving factor, but certainly something that we thought would make for a great alignment in the relationship moving forward.”

AL East Notes: Kiermaier, Holt, Pearson

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Some items from around the AL East…

  • The Rays would “really would like to avoid” an injured list placement for Kevin Kiermaier, manager Kevin Cash told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times and other reporters, though Kiermaier is still “in a significant amount of pain” following a collision with the outfield wall on Sunday.  Kiermaier hasn’t taken the field since suffering the left rib cage contusion, though Cash was hopeful that the center fielder would be able to return on Friday.  Kiermaier already spent ten days on the IL earlier this season due to a sprained left thumb, though 2019 has thus far been a relatively healthy season for the injury-plagued outfielder.  His 109 games played is already the second-highest total of his seven-year career.
  • Super-utilityman Brock Holt is enjoying the best season of his eight-year career, leaving MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo to wonder if the Red Sox will be able to affordably re-sign Holt in free agency this offseason.  Despite missing over seven weeks due to shoulder and eye injuries, Holt has hit .320/.393/.455 over 206 plate appearances, playing mostly as a second baseman to help the Sox fill the void left by the injured Dustin Pedroia.  Cotillo thinks the 31-year-old could find a three-year deal worth $27MM-$30MM on the open market, though “that might take a market rebound and some teams rewarding Holt for trending upward this season.”  While Boston has a lot of money coming off the books this winter, the club still has roughly $159.35MM in projected salary commitments (as per Roster Resource) and that’s not counting big raises due to arbitration-eligible players like Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. Andrew Benintendi, or Eduardo Rodriguez.  The Red Sox have Marco Hernandez on hand as a possible heir apparent utility infielder, should they choose to let Holt go and spend elsewhere.  For his part, Holt stated last spring that he “would love to stay here for the rest of my career.”
  • In a radio interview on the Fan 590’s Good Show today, Blue Jays pitching prospect Nate Pearson said that he doesn’t think he’ll be making this MLB debut this season.  “[The Blue Jays] haven’t really talked to me about anything,” Pearson said. “I’m just assuming I’m going home if we don’t make the [Triple-A] playoffs and just taking some time off. That’s all I really have planned right now.”  Pearson has been dominant in working his way up the Jays’ minor league ladder this season, with an overall 2.05 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and 4.75 K/BB rate in 96 2/3 combined innings at the high-A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels.  This performance has elevated Pearson’s already-high prospect stock, as he placed 14th and 15th on midseason top-100 prospect lists from MLB.com and Baseball America, respectively.  Since Pearson has made only two Triple-A starts and missed almost all of 2018 due to injuries, the Jays are being cautious in bringing along the prized right-hander (plus, service time considerations are likely in mind).  Given Pearson’s ability, however, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Pearson in the big leagues before the halfway point of the 2020 season.

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