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Cubs Option Matt Shaw

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The Cubs have optioned third baseman Matt Shaw to Triple-A Iowa, reports Keith Law of The Athletic. That’s part of a larger slate of moves, relayed by Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Infielder Vidal Bruján has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list. On the pitching side, the club recalled left-hander Luke Little and right-hander Daniel Palencia. To make room for those two, righty Nate Pearson has been optioned to Iowa as well, while righty Eli Morgan has been placed on the 15-day IL due to an elbow impingement.

Shaw, 23, came into the season as one of the top prospects in the league. The club clearly believed he was worthy of a shot at the majors, as they traded Isaac Paredes to the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker deal in the offseason. That didn’t guarantee Shaw a spot on the Opening Day roster but it opened a door for him, which he walked through. He cracked the club’s roster ahead of the Tokyo Series and has been serving as their regular third baseman up until this point.

The results have been mixed. Across his 68 plate appearances thus far, he has drawn a walk in 14.7% of them, but he’s also been struck out at a 26.5% clip. He has a tepid .172/.294/.241 batting line, though with a .231 batting average on balls in play. That number is on the unlucky side but Shaw hasn’t been doing himself many favors in terms of putting good wood on the ball. His 82.7 mile per hour average exit velocity in the second percentile of qualified MLB hitters, per Statcast. His hard-hit rate is in the fifth percentile, his bat speed in the tenth and his barrel rate 15th. His defense has also been a bit of a question mark. In 141 innings at third base thus far, he already has four errors.

All of that is surely less than the Cubs were hoping for, as he destroyed minor league pitching. After getting selected with the 13th overall pick in the 2023 draft, Shaw got into 159 minor league games between that draft selection and the end of the 2024 season. He had solid walk and strikeout rates of 10.2% and 17.3% respectively while slashing .303/.384/.522 for a 157 wRC+. 35 of those games were at the Triple-A level last year and he hit .298/.395/.534 in those, building the case that he was ready for a major league debut.

Shaw is yet another example of a top prospect who didn’t immediately click at the major league level. While some may jump to declare Shaw a “bust”, this sort of thing is actually quite common. A classic example is Mike Trout, who hit .220/.281/.390 in his first 135 plate appearances back in 2011. It can’t be assumed that a prospect will immediately succeed when reaching the majors for the first time, nor does it mean that they won’t ever find success down the line.

Sending Shaw down is defensible in a vacuum, given his struggles. But outside the vacuum, it’s unclear who the Cubs can turn to as a better option for the hot corner. Bruján has a .189/.261/.270 batting line in his career. Justin Turner has lots of third base experience but is now 40 years old. He’s been more of a first base/designated hitter type in recent years, with just 90 innings at the hot corner since the end of the 2022 season. He’s also having his own struggles at the plate this year, with a .172/.286/.172 line thus far. Jon Berti is a 35-year-old veteran utility guy. Gage Workman is a Rule 5 guy who has received just ten plate appearances thus far this year and has been punched out in five of them.

It’s possible this is just a short-term situation and Shaw will be back up with the big league club soon. How long it takes for his return will be significant for him and the club. By cracking the Opening Day roster, he was on pace to get a full year of service time in 2025. That would have meant qualifying for arbitration after 2027 and free agency after 2030. A quick return to the majors could still make those targets viable. A major league season is 187 days long but a player needs just 172 days in the big leagues or on the injured list to get credited with a full year. It’s also possible for Shaw to qualify for arbitration after 2027 even with less than three years of service time, as he could reach Super Two status.

If Shaw doesn’t return fairly quickly, those timelines will be pushed one year into the future. It will also take off the possibility of the Cubs earning an extra draft pick via the prospect promotion incentive. Under the PPI rules, teams can earn an extra pick by carrying a top prospect on the roster long enough to earn a full service year. The Cubs put that on the table initially by giving Shaw an Opening Day job but it will no longer apply if he’s down for a few weeks.

Photo courtesy of Sergio Estrada, Imagn Images

The Cubs’ Bullpen Outlook

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The Cubs entered spring training this year with their bullpen largely set. Offseason trade acquisitions of Ryan Pressly and Ryan Brasier added a pair of veteran righties — including a closer, Pressly — to the late-inning mix. Chicago signed lefty Caleb Thielbar to a one-year, $2.75MM deal. That trio joined Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller and Keegan Thompson as virtual locks. All three holdovers pitched very well in 2024, and the latter two are out of minor league options.

There are plenty of candidates for the remaining spots, the bulk of whom are on the 40-man roster already. Righty Julian Merryweather is coming off a poor showing in an injury-marred season that included an April rib fracture and season-ending knee surgery in September. He yielded 11 runs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA), but Merryweather was excellent in 2023, logging a 3.38 ERA and 32.3% strikeout rate in 72 innings for the Cubs. He’s also out of minor league options, which surely gives him a leg up on others. (Four scoreless spring innings with a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio so far isn’t hurting his cause, either.)

Others on the 40-man roster include righties Nate Pearson, Eli Morgan, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts and Gavin Hollowell. All have at least one minor league option remaining. However, the Cubs have at least one non-roster invitee who’s making a push for a spot: veteran righty Brad Keller.

Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote yesterday that Keller’s average fastball is up more than three miles per hour this spring, sitting 96.3 mph and topping out at 98 mph. Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy and manager Craig Counsell both spoke highly of Keller’s stuff this spring, with the skipper noting to Lee that Keller has been “more than we expected” so far in camp. Keller’s four runs in seven innings of work don’t stand out, but teams are far more focused on raw stuff, velocity and command when looking at such a small sample. Keller has allowed only seven hits and a walk while punching out six hitters and inducing grounders at a 48% clip so far.

Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports that Keller’s velocity jump and smoother mechanics have not only made him a legitimate consideration to break camp but made it “likely” that the team will add Keller to the roster. The veteran righty has a looming opt-out opportunity in his deal, so the Cubs will either have to select his contract to the big league roster or risk him landing with another team. His minor league pact comes with a $1.5MM base salary, per Mooney, making Keller an affordable addition to the relief corps if the team sees fit.

Adding Keller to the mix, however, comes with complications. Right now, the Cubs have six relievers who cannot be optioned to the minors in the running for bullpen spots: Pressly, Brasier, Thielbar, Miller, Thompson and Merryweather. Hodge has a full slate of minor league options remaining, but coming off a 1.88 ERA and 31.7% strikeout rate in 43 rookie innings, he’s not going anywhere. He’s locked into a seventh spot in the ’pen.

Effectively, unless the Cubs are willing to move on from Merryweather, they only have one bullpen spot available. Plugging Keller into that spot would render their bullpen largely static, barring injury. Keller has more than five years of MLB service (6.062, to be more specific). He can’t be optioned without his consent.

That level of bullpen inflexibility is tough for any team to manage. Early off-days in the season would help, but if the Cubs needed to call up a fresh arm at any point, they’d be left choosing between optioning Hodge or designating someone for assignment. It’s not an ideal setup.  (The Mets faced a similar situation with their bench when weighing whether to re-sign Jose Iglesias, which is largely why he ended up with the Padres.)

The situation would only grow murkier when righty Javier Assad is healed up from an oblique injury. Assad has been ruled out for Opening Day and is presumably IL-bound to begin the year. If he returns in April, however, he’d likely push righty Colin Rea from the fifth starter’s spot to a long relief role. Rea, like many of his teammates on the staff, can’t be optioned. The Cubs could technically option Assad, but he pitched 147 innings of 3.73 ERA ball out of the rotation last year; his strikeout, walk an home run rates all point to some regression, but Assad has still pitched well enough to this point in his career (3.40 ERA in 294 innings) that he can be considered a lock when healthy.

It’s always possible that further injuries sort the situation out organically. Injuries, particularly on the pitching side of things, are an inevitability for any team over the course of a six-week spring training and 162-game season. But with the bulk of the pitching staff healthy right now and minimal flexibility due to their lack of optionable arms, the Cubs seem like they’ll be forced into some decisions on those out-of-options arms sooner than later.

Jed Hoyer Discusses Kyle Tucker, Corner Infield Plans

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The Cubs pulled off a huge deal last week, acquiring outfielder Kyle Tucker from the Cubs in exchange for third baseman Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer spoke to members of the media today (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score and Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times), addressing Tucker and the club’s corner infield options.

While Tucker is a big upgrade for the 2025 team, he is set to be a free agent after that. That means he doesn’t currently provide the Cubs any value beyond the upcoming season, apart from the extra draft pick they would receive if he rejects a qualifying offer at season’s end and then signs elsewhere.

The Cubs could always change that future by signing Tucker to an extension, something that Hoyer touched upon a bit. “I don’t know what the future holds,” he said. “But obviously Chicago sells itself really well. And so, I’m excited to bring him in for this year, and we’ll see where it goes beyond that. But clearly this was the kind of player that we lacked.”

It’s fair to assume that the Cubs would love to have Tucker beyond just the one year. They clearly value the player highly, based on the strong package of talent they gave up just for that one season, plus the aforementioned QO compensation. Tucker himself also spoke today (per Levine) and said he’s open to having talks before he hits the open market.

While it’s nice that Tucker is open to having talks, agreeing on a price point might be a challenge. Tucker has been one of the better players in baseball in recent years and is slated to hit free agency ahead of his age-29 season. To get a really good player to sign an extension just before hitting free agency ahead of his 30th birthday isn’t cheap, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Some recent examples include $365MM for Mookie Betts, $341MM for Francisco Lindor and $313.5MM for Rafael Devers.

It’s a somewhat similar situation to the one that just played out between Juan Soto and the Yankees. He was acquired from the Padres with one year remaining before hitting free agency, said he was open to contract talks at any time, but ultimately became a free agent and signed a mega deal with the Mets.

With the Cubs, it’s arguably even less likely to get done. Tucker’s earning power isn’t as high as Soto’s but the Cubs have never given out deals even to that Betts/Lindor/Devers level. Jason Heyward’s $184MM deal is still the largest in franchise history, even though it’s almost a decade old at this point. Since Hoyer took over, the club’s largest deal has been $177MM for Dansby Swanson, the only time he’s gone higher than $85MM. Perhaps they are willing to break that pattern for Tucker, who they clearly like, but it would likely require them to effectively double the Heyward/Swanson deals.

Hoyer also addressed the third base situation at Wrigley, as trading Paredes created an opening there. It has been expected that the club would be willing to give prospect Matt Shaw to take that spot. Hoyer seems to be open to that coming to pass, saying that Shaw would get a “long look”, though he wouldn’t just call it a done deal. “He has to earn that job,” Hoyer said. “I’m not going to gift him that on a conference call in the middle of December.”

That’s a fair position to take. Though Shaw has performed very well in the minors, even the best prospects can struggle when first called up to the majors, so nothing can be taken for granted. Selected 13th overall last summer, Shaw has slashed .303/.384/.522 so far in 159 minor league games across different levels. That includes a line of .298/.395/.534 in 35 Triple-A games to finish his 2024 season, so there’s definitely an argument for him cracking the majors to start 2025.

But since there’s no guarantee he will hit the ground running, the Cubs will need to have backup plans. The Cubs had six players spend at least 85 innings at third this year, but Miles Mastrobuoni is the only one of the six left on the roster. As mentioned, Paredes was in the Tucker deal. The Cubs traded Christopher Morel to the Rays in order to acquire Paredes in the first place. Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom were non-tendered at season’s end. David Bote was outrighted off the roster in August.

Infielder Gage Workman was just grabbed from the Tigers in the Rule 5 draft, so he has a roster spot for now, but he doesn’t have any major league nor any Triple-A experience. Ben Cowles and Luis Vázquez are other multi-positional infielders currently on the 40-man. Perhaps the Cubs will look at adding to that group by signing a veteran utility man, whether that’s to a modest major league deal or a minor league pact.

One thing that is apparently not under consideration is moving Michael Busch across the diamond. The club had an outfield logjam but Cody Bellinger can play first, so it was theoretically possible for them to open that spot for Bellinger by moving Busch to the hot corner, a position where he has 99 1/3 innings of major league experience. But Busch got strong grades for his first base defense this year and Hoyer suggested their focus would be keeping him there. Bellinger was traded to the Yankees after Hoyer’s comments this afternoon.

Unrelated to Hoyer’s comments, there was another Cubs tidbit of note this week. Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic report that the club has considered the possibility of stretching out right-hander Nate Pearson as a starter.

There’s some merit to the plan but it may be difficult to pull off. Pearson was a starting pitching prospect of note with the Blue Jays before injuries pushed him into a relief role. As recently as July, he expressed an interest in returning to a rotation role, shortly before he was traded to the Cubs.

Bullpen-to-rotation conversions have been all the rage lately. Some recent success stories have included Michael King, Seth Lugo, Reynaldo López, Garrett Crochet and others. It doesn’t always work, with the A.J. Puk experiment one attempt that didn’t pan out, but clubs seem to be warm to the idea. The Mets have signed Clay Holmes with a plan of stretching him out next year and there have been some reports suggesting Jeff Hoffman might get a rotation gig next year as well.

With Pearson, it’s tough to see a path next year. The Cubs already have Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad in the rotation, with reported interest in Jesús Luzardo of the Marlins as well. They also have Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Cade Horton and other potential starters around, so all those guys might not leave a lot of room for Pearson to get big league starts. As such, Mooney and Sharma admit that Pearson is most likely to stick in a relief role next year.

Latest On Cubs’ Deadline Plans

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The Cubs swung perhaps the most shocking trade of the summer so far today when they acquired third baseman Isaac Paredes from the Rays in exchange for young slugger Christopher Morel, relief prospect Hunter Bigge, and pitching prospect Ty Johnson. Paredes, as one of the best hitters available this summer, was rumored to be of interest to a number of win-now clubs such as the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mariners, but instead ended up in Chicago with a club that’s just 51-56 last year and recently saw its president of baseball operations admit the club was prioritizing the future with its approach to this year’s deadline.

The addition of Paredes, who is controllable through the end of the 2027 season, doesn’t necessarily go against that stated ethos. The same can be said for the club’s acquisition of Blue Jays reliever Nate Pearson, who is controlled through the end of the 2026 campaign. It appears the Cubs may be interested in adding pieces that aren’t set to remain with the club long-term, however, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested this afternoon that the Cubs are among the teams showing interest in Giants lefty Blake Snell. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner got off to a rough start this year but has begun to right the ship in recent weeks, leading The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal to suggest yesterday that teams view Snell as likely to opt out of the remainder of his contract at season’s end.

That reported interest in Snell is somewhat surprising, particularly given the fact that the Cubs have seemingly been fielding interest on veteran right-hander Jameson Taillon in recent weeks. The starting rotation has been an undeniable strength for the Cubs this year, as their 3.72 rotation ERA ranks 6th in the majors thanks primarily to elite performances from Taillon, Justin Steele, and Shota Imanaga. While adding a pitcher of Snell’s caliber would surely bolster the club’s rotation and could even allow the club to deal Taillon without suffering a short-term dip in production, the fact that clubs seemingly view Snell as more likely than not to head back to free agency this fall seems to directly contradict the club’s stated plan to focus on the future this summer.

Regardless of what the Cubs’ plans are regarding Taillon or a possible pursuit of Snell, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reported prior to today’s trade for Paredes that the Cubs are “listening” to offers regarding almost anyone on the roster but are focusing on trying to trade from their bullpen mix. Per Sharma, four relief arms in particularly are most frequently brought up by contenders interested in dealing with the Cubs over the coming days: right-handers Hector Neris, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. as well as southpaw Drew Smyly. Of the quartet, Sharma suggests that veterans Smyly and Neris are the most likely to move, as each could become a free agent at season’s end.

Neris, who has posted an uneven season with a 3.68 ERA and 4.54 FIP this year, has a $9MM team option in his contract that will convert into a $9MM player option in the event that he reaches either 60 appearances or 45 games finished this year. With 39 appearances and 27 games finished so far this year, both benchmarks are within the realm of possibility, and Sharma suggests that this aspect of his contract “complicates” the possibility of a trade. Smyly, who sports a 2.79 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 38 2/3 innings of work this year, has a much less complicated contractual situation; his contract comes with a $10MM mutual option that is certain to be declined by one side or the other in favor of a $2.5MM buyout.

While Neris and Smyly seem unlikely to command massive returns, The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, and Katie Woo recently discussed the hefty price tags that have come with controllable relievers this season. Mooney, Sammon, Woo, and Sharma all believe that the Cubs intend to deal Leiter and Merryweather only if they can leverage that sellers’ market for cost-controlled relief arms, with Sharma noting that the asking price is “high” for Leiter in particular. The 33-year-old’s 4.37 ERA this year is unspectacular, but his massive 34.5% strikeout rate, a sparkling 2.18 FIP, and the fact that he can be controlled through the end of the 2026 season all could make him a very appealing addition for contenders in search of relief help. As for Merryweather, the 32-year-old has been injured much of this year but is now healthy, sports a 3.33 ERA and 3.44 FIP since joining the Cubs prior to the 2023 campaign, and comes with the same two additional season of club control that Leiter does.

Another consideration for the Cubs, whether they’re adding or subtracting from the current roster, figures to be the luxury tax. Chicago currently sports a luxury tax payroll of just under $234MM according to RosterResource, a figure that puts them a little more than $3MM under the first threshold of the luxury tax. The addition of a player with a hefty salary like Snell would surely put them well beyond that threshold, while dealing a player like Taillon or even a less expensive relief arm like Neris or Smyly would likely offer the Cubs additional breathing room below the tax threshold. Given the fact that Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts suggested back in February that the “natural” place for the club’s payroll to land was right up against the tax threshold, it would be something of a shock for ownership to greenlight spending beyond the luxury tax in a year where the club evidently is not expecting to make the postseason.

Cubs Acquire Nate Pearson

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The Cubs have acquired right-hander Nate Pearson in a trade with the Blue Jays, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers and Jeff Passan (X link).  Toronto will receive minor league outfielder Yohendrick Pinango and minor league infielder Josh Rivera in return. The Jays also placed closer Jordan Romano on the 60-day injured list.

Pearson was selected 28th overall in the 2017 draft, just one pick after the Cubs took left-hander Brendon Little (who currently pitches for the Jays).  A broken arm and an oblique injury limited him to just 1 2/3 innings in 2018, but he re-emerged with a vengeance in 2019, rocketing up the minor league ladder to Triple-A Buffalo by season’s end and establishing himself as one of baseball’s top pitching prospects.  MLB Pipeline and Baseball America both ranked him within the overall top 10 of their preseason prospect rankings in advance of the 2020 season, and that year saw Pearson make his MLB debut in the form of five appearances for the Jays during the pandemic-shortened campaign.

Since pitching 101 2/3 innings in the minors in 2019, Pearson has barely topped that total in terms of big league experience, with 115 2/3 frames on his resume in the Show.  Pearson has posted a 5.21 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, and 11.6% walk rate in the majors, with a 15.1% homer rate contributing to that unimpressive ERA.

All but five of Pearson’s 93 big league appearances have come as a reliever, as Toronto shifted Pearson to the bullpen in an effort to keep him healthy after a number of injury setbacks.  From 2020-22, Pearson had to deal with such varied issues as a flexor strain, a lat strain, mono, groin problems, and a hernia surgery, which limited his time on the mound and prevented him from any MLB action whatsoever in 2022.

Pearson has been healthy over the last two years, but his performance has been inconsistent as best, dashing the Blue Jays’ hopes that Pearson could at least become a high-leverage relief weapon.  He is one of the league’s harder throwers with a fastball that averages 97.6mph, but batters have teed off that heater to the tune of a .342 average this season.  Pearson’s slider has been a much more effective offering, but opposing hitters have learned to lay off the slider and chase the fastball, to great success.

Pearson recently expressed an interest in returning to a starting role, which would’ve seemingly been something the Jays would’ve been open to given their rotation and the organization’s overall uncertain future direction in the midst of an underwhelming season.  Today’s trade, however, closes the door on Pearson’s Blue Jays tenure entirely, and it perhaps hints at a change in Toronto’s plans for the trade deadline.  The Jays had reportedly been only planning to move rental or shorter-term players, while keeping a lot of their core in place for another run at contention in 2025.

Since Pearson is only in his first year of arbitration eligibility and is controlled through the 2026 campaign, the deal could signal the Jays’ willingness to expand their list of trade candidates, perhaps if the club is considering that some level of a rebuild is in order.  Then again, it could be that the Blue Jays were open to moving Pearson simply because they no longer consider him any kind of core piece — a letdown for the franchise, given that Pearson seemed like a future cornerstone not long ago.

The Cubs are struggling through a disappointing year of their own, with a 49-56 record in comparison to Toronto’s 47-56 mark.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said earlier this week that the club is already looking ahead to 2025 in terms of potential deadline pickups, and to that end Pearson represents an interesting change-of-scenery candidate.  The righty turns 28 next month, so there’s still lots of time for a second act to his career as either a reliever or starter.  Between Pearson’s prospect pedigree and two years of remaining arb control, there’s some major buy-low upside for the Cubs if the right-hander is able to find his form in Wrigleyville.  Peter Gammons (via X) reports that the Red Sox were also interested in Pearson, though it stands to reason that the Jays might’ve preferred to move the righty outside the AL East.

Baseball America ranks Pinango 17th among Cubs prospects, while MLB Pipeline has him 29th.  The outfielder was an international signing in 2018 and he has spent the majority of his career in high-A ball, only reaching Double-A for the first time this season and hitting .223/.316/.345 with four homers in 225 PA for Double-A Tennessee.  BA’s scouting report notes that the 22-year-old’s attempts to focus on adding power in 2022-23 led to diminished numbers overall, but he has shown a better approach in 2024 and posted improved hard-contact numbers and a better chase rate.  Defensively, Pinango is an average defender probably best suited to left field or even first base over the long term, and the latter position would naturally put more pressure on him to deliver more at the plate.

Rivera is 23rd on Pipeline’s list but wasn’t included in Baseball America’s Cubs top 30, perhaps owing to his .169/.277/.260 slash line over 253 PA at Double-A Tennessee this season.  Like Pinango, Rivera is also playing Double-A ball for the first time, and it has been a pretty quick progression since Rivera was only drafted last year, in the third round.  The University of Florida product has played mostly shortstop as a pro with some second base and third base time, and Pipeline projects him as “an offensive-minded utilityman” given his raw skills at the plate and his ability to competently play multiple positions, even if he isn’t a standout in the field.

Rogers and Passan (X link) were the first to report that Pearson was heading to Chicago.  ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported (via X) Pinango’s inclusion in the deal, while Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and Arden Zwelling (X link) reported Rivera’s inclusion.

Nate Pearson Interested In Future Starting Role

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Right-hander Nate Pearson has been working out of the Blue Jays’ bullpen in recent years but he tells Shi Davidi of Sportsnet that he would like another opportunity to prove himself in a starting role.

“I’ve definitely considered it, I’ve always wanted to be a starter,” the righty said. “Obviously the past couple of years before this haven’t really gone my way in terms of health, the guys we’ve signed, the roster spots and everything. So right now I’m coming out of the ’pen, trying to help our team win, whether it’s one inning, two innings. Looking into next year, if that’s an option, then I definitely want to explore it. That’s something I’ll have to sit down and talk with them about, see what the need is. But I’m definitely open to it, definitely would love to get another shot at it.”

Now 27, Pearson once seemed ticketed to be a mainstay of the Toronto rotation. He was the club’s first-round pick in 2017, getting selected 28th overall, and then became one of the top prospects in the league. As he impressed with his work in the minors, Baseball America had him on their top 100 list for five straight years starting in 2018, with Pearson getting as high as seventh overall in 2020.

But as Pearson himself referenced in the quote above, his health got in the way. He got up to the majors in the shortened 2020 season but missed time due to a flexor strain and only made five appearances, plus one more in the playoffs. In 2021, he battled a right groin strain on and off throughout the year and struggled when on the mound. He spent most of his time either on the IL or on optional assignment. He only tossed 15 big leagues innings and had a 16.9% walk rate in that time, then underwent hernia surgery in November of that year. In 2022, mononucleosis and a lat strain limited him to 15 1/3 minor league innings and none in the majors.

Since then, he’s been able to avoid the health woes while staying in a relief role. Last year, he tossed 42 2/3 innings in the bigs and another 20 2/3 at Triple-A. The major league work wasn’t especially impressive, as he had a 4.85 earned run average in that time, but a healthy season was a victory in itself after all that missed time.

He’s been healthy again in 2024 with his ERA not changing much, though his underlying numbers have shown significant improvement. In 36 1/3 innings on the season, he has a 4.71 ERA, only slightly better than last year’s. But his strikeout rate has jumped to 29% from last year’s 23.6% rate, while his walk rate has dropped from 9.9% to 8.6%. That hasn’t led to much improvement in run prevention, but luck could be a factor there. His home run to flyball rate has jumped from 11.7% to 15% and his batting average on balls in play from .261 to .344. ERA estimators like his 4.05 FIP and his 3.09 SIERA suggest he may be having a better season than a quick glance at the ERA would indicate.

Now that he’s stayed healthy for close to two years and is having some decent results, perhaps a move back to a starting role is on the table. It’s a transition that has some precedent this year, with Davidi and Pearson bringing up guys like Garrett Crochet of the White Sox, Reynaldo López of Atlanta and former Blue Jay Jordan Hicks with the Giants.

“It’s definitely encouraging to see Hicks being a reliever for years over in St. Louis and then transitioning, making the jump and being pretty successful so far this year,” said Pearson. “And then Crochet, watching him throw earlier this year, he wasn’t even a (full-time) starter in college, now he’s in the rotation, throwing pretty well. So definitely, I feel, (it) helps me out for other people to see that is possible to make that transition. I guess only time will tell. Finish out this year, hopefully put up some good numbers and then look forward to next year.”

The bullpen-to-rotation path has other success stories, such as Seth Lugo, Jeffrey Springs and more, but it doesn’t always work. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at this year’s crop in May and again in July, with Crochet and López two of the best examples but with A.J. Puk on the other end of the spectrum. Puk was roughed up in four starts at the beginning of the year before landing on the injured list and the Marlins decided to move him back to the bullpen after the IL stint.

Time will tell whether Pearson can pull it off or not, but it’s understandable that he wants to try. A lot of pitchers are moved from starting roles to the bullpen not by choice but simply due to circumstances, either being squeezed out by other pitchers or their health situations, but they may still have a desire to go back. On top of the straightforward desire to succeed in a rotation role, there’s also a financial motivation as starters are generally paid more than relievers.

On top of Pearson’s aforementioned health issues, the Jays have generally had a solid rotation in recent years consisting of guys like José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, Yariel Rodríguez, Alek Manoah, Ross Stripling and Hyun Jin Ryu.

The current rotation is composed of the first five names on that list, but change is likely coming. Kikuchi is an impending free agent and likely to be traded prior to the July 30 with the Jays sliding to the back of the American League Wild Card race and reportedly making rental players available. Bassitt and Gausman have been speculated as trade candidates as well, though Bassitt has another year on his contract and Gausman has two, so they’re less likely than Kikuchi to be moved.

Deadline trades could bring in other pitchers that change the equation but it’s possible there’s a rotation opening that Pearson could seize. As mentioned by Davidi, the club’s best pitching prospects Ricky Tiedemann and Adam Macko are currently dealing with injuries and uncertain futures. Manoah had Tommy John surgery in June and will be out until late 2025 at the earliest. That could increase the club’s willingness to giving Pearson a shot but it sounds like they’re already open to it. Davidi reports that the Jays have “bounced around” the idea of stretching out Pearson this year as those injuries have thinned out their depth.

“We’ve always considered Nate to be a potential starter in the major leagues, I don’t think that will change,” pitching coach Pete Walker says. “Will he get the opportunity again? I’m not sure, but I wouldn’t be surprised. Right now, he’s still finding his niche and learning how to pitch out of the bullpen, which a lot of guys do. You learn a lot about yourself, how to compete in tough situations, how to make adjustments, realizing where your pitches have to be and that location is really important, even if you throw hard. He’s learning a lot right now and I could see him being a starting pitcher again, for sure.” Walker also added that the “door is always open.”

It’s not too surprising that the Jays would be open to Pearson making the move. The bullpen has also been hit by injuries this year and would lose one more member if Pearson becomes a starter, but decent relievers are generally easier to find than reliable starters, so it’s a tradeoff most clubs would be happy with. That’s especially true given Pearson’s financial situation.

He came into this year with his service time count at three years and five days. He was briefly optioned in April, getting recalled four days later when Chad Green landed on the injured list. A baseball season is 187 days long but a player needs 172 days on the active roster or IL to get a full service year, meaning Pearson is on pace to get a full year and finish this season at 4.005 in spite of that brief option period.

He’s making just $800K this year, barely over the $740K league minimum, thanks to those injuries limiting his on-field contributions in recent seasons. He’s slated for two more arbitration raises before a trip to free agency in advance of his age-30 season, unless he’s optioned to the minors again for a notable period of time.

His role, health and level of success will impact how much he earns in arbitration and free agency. If he’s able to follow the Crochet path, the best-case scenario could see him in a rotation role for the next two years, increasing his earning power and his value to the Jays. If the club is able to return to contention in future seasons, he could be a key part of that. If not, he could become a sought-after trade chip like Crochet is now. That’s a lot of ifs, but it will be an interesting situation to monitor as the Jays play out this season and figure out their plans for 2025 and beyond.

Blue Jays Place Chad Green On 15-Day Injured List

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The Blue Jays are placing right-hander Chad Green on the injured list due to a right teres major strain, manager John Schneider told reporters (including Shi Davidi of Sportsnet) this evening. Right-hander Nate Pearson is set to be recalled to the roster in the corresponding move. Kyle Glaser relays that, per Schneider, Green has already undergone an MRI and will be shut down for a few days before the club re-assess him to determine a timeline for his return.

Green, 33 next month, signed with Toronto back in January of 2023 on a complex deal that guaranteed him $8.5MM over two years. Since then, however, the Blue Jays have exercised a two-year, $21MM club option on Green’s services that will now leave him with a total guarantee of $23.25MM over three years, including the $2.25MM he earned last season.

While Green had pitched just 12 innings for Toronto at that point, that expenditure was clearly justified by Green’s run as one of the most dominant set-up men in the game with the Yankees over the prior six seasons, which saw him post a 2.96 ERA and 3.01 FIP while striking out 33.4% of batters faced. The early returns on Toronto’s decision to commit to the veteran righty have been solid, as Green has picked up two saves in seven appearances while pitching to a 2.35 ERA to this point in the young 2024 campaign. Unfortunately, he’ll now take a seat for what could be a significant absence.

While Toronto doesn’t intend to determine a timetable for the right-hander’s return for several days, other hurlers suffering from teres major strains in recent years have typically been away from the big league club for a month or longer. Rangers right-hander Max Scherzer suffered a teres major strain in mid September last year and managed to return to appear in the ALCS against the Astros just over a month later, but struggled in his return before being removed from the club’s World Series roster after three postseason appearances.

Other players to suffer a teres major strain in recent years include Guardians righty Triston McKenzie, who missed the first two months of the 2023 campaign due to the issue, and Cubs youngster Caleb Kilian, who suffered the injury in early March and isn’t expected to return until sometime around the All Star break. Should Green require a lengthy trip to the IL, the Jays figure to lean heavily on right-handers Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson in his absence.

Both Romano and Swanson were just activated following trips to the IL of their own earlier this week. While they’ve combined to allow four runs in three appearances since being activated, the pair were among the most reliable back-end duos in the sport last year. Swanson pitched to a 2.97 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate in 69 appearances last year while setting up for Romano, who racked up 36 saves while posting a 2.90 ERA in 59 appearances of his own. With Green on the shelf, the likes of Yimi Garcia and Genesis Cabrera could receive additional late-inning opportunities alongside the duo.

Replacing Green on the active roster is Pearson, who had been optioned earlier this week to clear space for Romano and Swanson’s returns to the roster. The 27-year-old righty was the club’s first-round pick in the 2017 draft and was once widely considered a top-15 prospect in the sport but struggled to a 5.00 ERA and 5.36 FIP in 52 appearances from 2020 to 2023. The early returns on Pearson’s work in 2024 have been positive, however, as he’s struck out 34.6% of batters faced across 6 1/3 scoreless frames in the majors so far this year.

Blue Jays Designate Mitch White For Assignment

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The Blue Jays announced today that right-handers Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson have been activated off the injured list. In corresponding moves, they optioned righty Nate Pearson to Triple-A and designated righty Mitch White for assignment.

Romano and Swanson were key pieces of the Toronto bullpen last year but they haven’t been able to contribute to the club thus far in 2024. During the spring, Romano had some inflammation in his elbow while Swanson had some tightness in his forearm, leading both to start the season on the injured list.

With those two unavailable, the club has turned to Yimi García and Chad Green for most of the high-leverage work, with those two filling in admirably. García has a 1.17 earned run average through seven appearances, with 11 strikeouts to go with just one walk. Green, meanwhile, has a 2.35 ERA in his seven appearances, with seven punchies and two walks.

Despite that strong work from those two, the Jays are surely glad to get Romano and Swanson back. Romano has emerged as the club’s closer over the past three years, which included saving 36 games in each of the past two campaigns while keeping his ERA under 3.00 in each. Swanson had 29 holds and four saves last year while posting a 2.97 ERA on the season. Those two, along with García and Green, give the Jays a strong four-headed bullpen mix to finish out games.

The health of that group has nudged White off the roster. Now 29, White was a second-round pick of the Dodgers back in 2016 and was considered by Baseball America to be the #69 prospect in the league in 2018. The Jays acquired him in a 2022 deadline deal alongside Alex De Jesus, with prospects Nick Frasso and Moises Brito going the other way.

At the time of that deal, White had thrown 105 2/3 big league innings with a 3.58 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, the jersey swap corresponded with an immediate downturn in his results. White tossed 43 innings for the Jays in 2022 with a 7.74 ERA and 15.3% strikeout rate. There was a bit of bad luck in there, as his .368 batting average on balls in play and 54.3% strand rate were both on the unfortunate side, which is why his FIP was 3.76 in that time and his SIERA 4.70.

Luck or not, the poor results meant the Jays couldn’t guarantee a rotation spot to White going into 2023. At that time, four rotation spots were taken by Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt. White went into Spring Training battling Yusei Kikuchi for the final spot but dealt with some shoulder and elbow injuries and had to start the season on the IL. By the time he got back, there was no rotation spot for him and he worked a long relief role in the bullpen.

He didn’t take to that move, posting a 7.11 ERA in 10 outings before being designated for assignment. The 29 other clubs passed on the chance to grab him off waivers and he was sent outright to Triple-A. He got stretched out in Buffalo and finished the season in good form, with a 1.89 ERA over his last 33 1/3 innings, pairing a 31.4% strikeout rate in that time with a 10.2% walk rate.

The Jays added him back to the 40-man in November to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency, which put him in a similar spot to where he was a year prior, coming into spring out of options and battling for a spot. The Jays had to put Manoah on the IL this spring, which opened a rotation spot, but Bowden Francis beat White for that gig. Now that Yariel Rodríguez has also been stretched out and has seemingly bumped Francis from the rotation, White has been moved even further back. He has only made four long relief appearances this year but his uninspiring 5.40 ERA in those surely didn’t help him.

White has now been bumped off the roster yet again and the Jays will have one week to work out a trade or pass him through waivers. Since he cleared waivers last year, doing so again would give him the right to elect free agency. It’s possible he may garner interest based on his past results and strong finish at Triple-A last year. The fact that he’s out of options means that he needs an active roster spot somewhere, but he has less than three years of service time, meaning he can be controlled for three more seasons beyond this one.

A number of teams around the league are dealing with significant pitching injuries and it was less than a week ago that the Jays managed to flip Wes Parsons to the Guardians for international bonus pool space. Parsons is optionable but is more than two years older than White and doesn’t have the same past prospect pedigree.

Blue Jays Expect To Place Manoah, Swanson, Romano On Injured List

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The Blue Jays will place closer Jordan Romano and setup man Erik Swanson on the injured list to begin the season, manager John Schneider announced to reporters Wednesday (X thread via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet). Right-hander Alek Manoah is also likely headed to the 15-day IL, the manager added, though it seems that’ll just be to allow him some extra time to continue building up after he was slowed by shoulder trouble earlier in camp. Manoah tossed 34 pitches in a simulated game today and will continue to build from there. Righties Nate Pearson and Wes Parsons will open the season on the big league roster in place of Romano and Swanson.

Both Romano and Swanson recently underwent MRIs after experiencing some discomfort, neither of which revealed structural damage. Romano has some inflammation in his elbow, while Swanson is dealing with some tightness in his forearm. Neither is expected to miss significant time, but it’s nonetheless a blow to the Jays’ bullpen in the early stages of the season.

Romano, 31 next month, has become a powerhouse at the back of the Toronto ’pen. Over the past four seasons, he’s pitched to a 2.29 ERA (3.13 FIP, 3.14 SIERA) with a gaudy 30.8% strikeout rate against a 9.2% walk rate. Last year’s K-BB% wasn’t quite as dominant as in the prior three seasons, but Romano’s 17.1% swinging-strike rate was a flat-out elite mark that hints at a potential “rebound” in strikeout rate (as much as anyone needs to “rebound” from a generally excellent 29% mark in that regard). The right-hander also tied a career-high with 36 saves.

The 30-year-old Swanson, acquired from the Mariners in last offseason’s Teoscar Hernandez trade, would’ve been the favorite to step into closing duties for Romano were he healthy. He posted a 2.97 ERA in his first season with the Jays and carries a terrific 2.60 earned run average (3.04 FIP, 3.07 SIERA) over the past three seasons. During that time, Swanson has punched out 29.4% of his opponents against a very strong 6.7% walk rate.

With Romano and Swanson shelved to begin the year, closing duties will presumably fall to veteran Yimi Garcia. Setup options include Chad Green, the aforementioned Pearson, lefty Tim Mayza and fellow southpaw Genesis Cabrera. The Jays still have a decent group of relievers, but any team’s bullpen is going to look a little dicey when subtracting its two clear best relievers, as is the case in Toronto.

As for the rotation, Manoah is slotted into the No. 5 spot as he looks to rebound from last year’s nightmarish season. The Jays were concerned for a bit that staff ace Kevin Gausman would also require an IL stint, but it seems he’s progressed enough to avoid that fate. They’ll still open the season with Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi starting the first three games, but Gausman will be in line for the fourth or fifth game. He just pitched in a final spring tune-up outing Monday and thus won’t be sufficiently rested for an Opening Day nod.

With Manoah out, righty Bowden Francis will get the rotation nod to begin the season. He’s already been confirmed for the roster — his first career Opening Day roster spot — and will look to build on last year’s impressive rookie showing. The 27-year-old tossed 36 1/3 frames of 1.73 ERA ball with plus strikeout and walk rates (25.7% and 5.9%, respectively) over the life of 20 relief appearances. Francis has typically been a starter in the minors, so an early rotation role will be plenty familiar for him. He could be the first man up in the rotation throughout the early portion of the season if the Jays incur injuries on the staff, though top prospect Ricky Tiedemann will also likely make his big league debut at some point this season.

Blue Jays Activate Brandon Belt From 10-Day IL

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The Blue Jays activated first baseman/DH Brandon Belt from the 10-day injured list today, returning the veteran slugger to action after a 15-day absence due to lower back spasms.  Toronto also called up right-hander Jay Jackson from Triple-A, while optioning right-hander Nate Pearson and first baseman Spencer Horwitz to the Florida Complex League (since the Triple-A season is over).

Apart from this two-week stint and an earlier 10-day absence due to a hamstring injury, it has been a pretty healthy season for Belt, which is a nice outcome given his long injury history.  Recurring knee problems have plagued Belt in recent years, and surgery on his right knee prematurely ended Belt’s 2022 season and even had him wondering if retirement was in the cards.  However, Belt decided to continue playing on his surgically-repaired knee, a decision that has paid off well for both the 35-year-old and the Jays.

Signed to a one-year, $9.3MM free agent deal last winter, Belt has hit .251/.369/.470 with 16 home runs over 382 plate appearances.  The Blue Jays have used Belt mostly as a DH and rarely sent him to the plate against left-handed pitchers, but this platoon usage has perhaps contributed to Belt’s ability to stay healthy for the majority of the 2023 campaign.  Belt has been one of the steadier contributors to a Toronto lineup that has struggled to consistently generate offense, so getting Belt back for the regular season’s final six games is a big help as the Jays try to lock up a wild card slot.

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