After another tough loss in San Francisco last night, the Blue Jays enter play this evening at 41-50. They’ve dropped nine games behind the Red Sox for the American League’s final postseason spot. Only the Angels, A’s and White Sox have a worse record in the AL.
With less than three weeks until the deadline, time is running out for the Jays to avoid selling. On June 27, GM Ross Atkins called the next few weeks “exceptionally important” in determining the team’s direction. The Jays have gone 5-7 since then.
Unsurprisingly, that looks like it’ll leave the front office to contemplate dealing short-term pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote last night that the Jays have indicated to other teams that they’re willing to move impending free agents. Feinsand suggested that Toronto is still disinterested in dealing players who are under team control beyond this season. Feinsand left open the possibility of Toronto holding onto players if they author a dramatic turnaround in the next couple weeks, but he noted that the Jays “are prepared to sell” if they don’t reverse course quickly. Including tonight, they have 16 games until the deadline.
A reluctance to trade controllable players aligns with Atkins’ prior public comments. The GM said in early June that moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette — each of whom are slated for free agency at the end of next season — “just doesn’t make any sense for us.” While Atkins didn’t categorically shoot down the idea of moving any other players, a reluctance to deal Guerrero and Bichette indicates the team expects to rebound in 2025.
Even if the Jays focus trade discussions on rentals, the roster could look very different in a few weeks. Toronto has six impending free agents, each of whom has a realistic chance to go. That group is headlined by Yusei Kikuchi, who slots alongside Jack Flaherty as the top rental starting pitchers who should be available.
Kikuchi is coming off one of the best outings of his career. The lefty set a personal high with 13 strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball in San Francisco yesterday. He has allowed an even four earned runs per nine through 101 1/3 innings. Kikuchi has fanned an above-average 26.1% of opponents while cutting his walks to a career-low 5.4% clip. Home runs have always been an issue for the veteran southpaw, particularly against right-handed hitters. Yet Kikuchi is working on a second straight season with an ERA around 4.00 with plus strikeout and walk numbers.
This is the final season of his three-year, $36MM free agent deal. The contract was frontloaded, so Kikuchi is making just $10MM this year. Around $3.28MM would remain at the deadline. That should be affordable for most contenders. Kikuchi would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Jays don’t trade him. If Toronto exceeds the luxury tax threshold, they’d only receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in the 2025 draft if a qualified free agent signs elsewhere.
That’s also a potential factor for Danny Jansen, who is the top impending free agent catcher. Jansen’s free agent and trade appeal looked a lot stronger as recently as a month ago. The righty-hitting backstop carried a .287/.371/.535 batting line into June. He has hit an ill-timed power outage in the past six weeks. Jansen has gone without a homer while running a .122/.241/.162 slash since the end of May. His season line (.217/.315/.377 over 203 plate appearances) is exactly league average, as measured by wRC+.
Despite the slump, the Jays should still get calls on Jansen. There aren’t likely to be many starting caliber catchers available this summer. Jansen has shown that kind of talent throughout his career, though his value has generally been undercut by a lengthy injury history. Even if he’s not currently in top form, Jansen has excellent strike zone discipline with double-digit home run power. He’s a quality receiving catcher but doesn’t have a great arm. The 29-year-old is making $5.2MM in his final arbitration season.
Kevin Kiermaier and Justin Turner are both playing on one-year free agent deals, respectively valued at $10.5MM and $13MM. They’re established veterans who could generate some interest for a bench role on a contender. The Jays would likely need to pay down most of the money to facilitate a trade of either player, though. Kiermaier remains an excellent defensive center fielder but has a career-worst .187/.232/.295 batting line over 181 plate appearances. The 39-year-old Turner is hitting .240/.347/.360 with five homers over 294 trips to the plate. He is working mostly as a designated hitter with sporadic reps at the corner infield spots.
Relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards are the final two impending free agents. García, who is playing on a $6MM salary, got out to an excellent start to the year. He fired 28 innings of 2.57 ERA ball with a huge 34.6% strikeout rate over 27 appearances. An elbow issue sent him to the injured list in mid-June. García is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com tweets that neck stiffness has delayed him but the Jays are hopeful that García will be ready for reinstatement this weekend.
Richards, who is making just $2.15MM in his last arbitration season, owns a 3.40 earned run average in 47 2/3 frames. The changeup specialist has fanned a quarter of opponents against a 9% walk rate. Richards doesn’t have eye-popping velocity and this year’s 10% swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career. He’s best suited for a middle relief role but should have some appeal on the trade market as an affordable multi-inning arm.
Moving the bulk or all of those players could have significant financial ramifications for the organization. RosterResource estimates the organization’s luxury tax commitments just north of $247MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculates the team’s CBT mark closer to $250MM. Those outside projections put the team $10-13MM above this year’s $237MM base tax threshold. An organization’s competitive balance tax number is calculated at the end of the season.
If the Jays commit to selling, they could get close to or below the tax line. They should be able to offload the prorated portions of Kikuchi’s $12MM and Jansen’s $5.2MM respective CBT numbers. If García is healthy, they could probably find a taker for what remains of his contract. Depending on what portion of the Kiermaier and Turner money another team might be willing to eat, there may be a path to getting their CBT number under $237MM. That would reset the team’s tax bracket and free them from the escalating penalties as a repeat payor if they decided to spend back above the tax line in 2025.
Getting under the CBT marker would be much easier if the Jays were willing to go beyond the rentals. Guerrero, Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chad Green are all on notable arbitration or multi-year salaries. Moving anyone from that group would make a return to competitiveness in 2025 more of an uphill battle, of course. It doesn’t seem that’s an avenue the front office is eager to take. It remains to be seen if they’ll more seriously consider that kind of roster overhaul over the coming weeks.
To all the Shapiro and Atkins haters, we know, they suck.
However, can any of you provide some realistic moves the FO can make. However bad they may be.
I think that one move where you hold your ankle and jump over your shin is probably the move they could make. Not too tough but it’s very impressive since a lot of people can’t do it.
I super duper liked that realistic move when Dick the Bruiser took Alex Karras apart at Lindell’s AC. Or was it the other way around.
Greatest bar fight in recorded history. That’s a move only 2 people ever pulled off.
My other two favorite moves are stealing the nose off of a baby, and pretending to lose a thumb or half of a finger. While both are considered “easy moves”, they are not all that “realistic”.
The same person bamboozled at 11 months ain’t buying it by their teen years. Thus, a realistic move today might prove mighty unrealistic a bit down that ol’ dusty trail. So beware.
Okay. Everyone shut up and listen to this guy. I didn’t even think of the nose move. Looks like Canada has their new GM
Why do you assume Bauer supporters have hard drives. Most people use the cloud these days. And I have a very secure password. It’s definitely not kinkybauer69…
@bball_is_b. If you’re a Bauer supporter than that was the worst attempt to hide the fact you have HDs you don’t want people to see.
Ladies and gentlemen… we got him.
I think he needs to change the combination to his luggage again after that attempt
It is past time for a rebuild. Get new management, scouting and player development, tear it down and draft well.
I am aware Rogers will not allow an Orioles style tank but one can hope.
Yes it is time for a rebuild.
Can as in able to? Or likely to? Or should?
It’s obvious they’ll try to move all the rentals. And even though they say they won’t trade anyone controlled beyond this season, the point about the CBT that the article brings up is a good one. They’ll be a second time payor this year if they don’t get under and it’s hard to envision a scenario where they return to contention next year without going over the CBT again so resetting the penalties in a year they aren’t in contention makes some sense. Two players they could make available that would help them do that would be Chris Bassitt and Chad Green. Both are pitching well now so should have a market. They’re also making considerable salaries. So even if it feels like subtracting important players from next year’s team, they’ll have that money freed up to put back into the team.
Personally, I feel like they need to make a bigger trade for young players who might be good in ‘26. But that’s hard when the players who should have that value haven’t exactly kept their stock up.
I think you hold Bassitt and Green until the offseason if the deals aren’t to our liking.
Trade Jansen, KK, Kikuchi, Garcia for prospects. Cut bait with former prospects to clear room for the 40 (Rule 5 should be interesting) Holding pattern for Bo and Vladdy, there’s an offseason for that. Try your best to move Springer while his value is high without taking back a bad contract. Fire Schneider, Shapiro, and Atkins.
(Edit) While Springers playing well, instead of value being high.
What do you think they can realistically get for Jansen? Cubs are supposedly interested. What would the Cubs realistically give up?
In a vacuum? I believe baseball circles understand Jansen’s value WHEN he is on the field. His injuries lean towards bad luck more than chronic injuries. He can be extremely clutch (last year he was like top 5 in RBIs after the 6th inning half way through the season, I’ll try to find the exact stat) However the deadline can be dictated by the amount of sellers/buyers, to which there is a lot of gray area.
He won’t fetch a top prospect unless a team is fully pressed to win and there are few to no other options. The Cubs are not the only team interested. Just like the Jays aren’t the only ones selling a catcher.
I think the better question is what are the Blue Jays realistically willing to take. Shipping a catcher half way through the season isn’t always a good thing for the team acquiring them. Some teams will be hesitant. Catchers probably have the longest time to acclimate to their new team. The other side of it is, are we ready for Kirk to handle more of the load… And there isn’t a ton of optimism there. We love him, but we don’t see him as an everyday player.
A lot went wrong this year. Run suppression with no added firepower was a recipe for disaster. The team lacks mental fortitude. Expecting your young players to develop without brining in the appropriate culture has lead to wasted years. Brining in Belt and Turner for one offs were never going to fix the clubhouse leadership. Seeing Teoscar win the HR derby almost brought a tear to my eye.
Not a lot to be happy about, and based on previous ineptitude, the expectations are glaringly low for the trade assets coming back.
Ideally, I would like a pitcher, who can is cost controlled, but less than 2 yrs away from the Show. Too much of our money tied up in our top 3 pitchers, and the results haven’t been up to par. We need to better allocate that money towards our offense.
I wish Dano the best, regardless of where he plays in the future. You can tell he’s a good dude. Any team would/should be happy to have him.
Yes, fire themselves and Schneider.
The team needs to move on from Bo and Vlad and start rebuilding. Get rid of some other assets that are performing well this year like Jansen and Kikuchi.
Jansen has been horrible and is hurt all the time
@Tankathon
Okay, replace him with IKF. But, even so, he’s essentially creating runs at about league average, at 97. Given he’s apparently horrible and hurt all the time, it’s pretty decent numbers.
Jansen has been hurt but not horrible compared to the rest of the league. Also doesn’t mean the Jays hold onto him.
I think this is where it gets tricky for teams. The front office who botched the current roster is the same front office they have to trust to kick off the rebuild for the next window of contention.
I think the Jays are in a similar situation to what the Cardinals were in last year. They don’t want to blow it up and don’t really have to they have plenty of guys who are soon to be free agents to trade. As for if the guys in charge can get them back into contention who knows.
Bo Bichette to the Mariners for Emerson Hancock, Ryan Bliss, and Tai Peete. To play second base.
That deal doesn’t make sense with the way he’s playing. Vlad? Yeah. Bo? No.
Yeah I am assuming he is still the player everyone knows and loves from 2021-2023. Bo has either mentally checked out in Toronto or it’s a persistent injury that isn’t healing. Could be the ideal change of scenery acquisition.
Yeah in general I see where you’re coming from. But Seattle is a particularly risky change in scenery for an underperforming bat. Seems like a lot to give up for a leap of faith on bo turning things around.
Kikuchi to the brewers for Bradley Blaylock and Oliver Dunn
Cardinals could use Kikuchi although a lot of teams could use him too. Perhaos he ends up with the Orioles. Who would want Jansen?
Kikuchi to the Padres. AJ Preller is very aggressive and will overwhelm other offers.
I admittedly don’t see much of Toronto, but I thought they were on the verge of being perennial contenders with a young corps of great hitters.
I did notice that they gave some big contracts out to mediocre pitchers, but why and how have all of their great hitters fallen off one by one ?
Biggio never reached his potential and now both Vlad and Bo have nosedive ? Seems like an organizational misstep , was there a change in hitting coach or approach ? Some heads probably need to roll from the staff, before selling low on what should be all star players.
Not sure what you mean by saying mediocre pitchers. Chris Bassitt has been basically lived up to his contract so far. Kevin Gausman has pitched like an ace every year until 2024. And José Berríos has bounced back nicely after an off year last year. I guess you could argue Ryu but he isn’t on the books anymore.
They subtracted too much offense and replaced those guys with run-preventing defensive experts to pair with their strong pitching. Plus regression in their core offensive guys. Plus they have no farm. And their normally strong bullpen regressed badly. So confluence of factors.
Vlad has hardly nosedived this season. He’s hitting pretty well rn.
An offer they can’t refuse for a Bichette/VLad/Bassit/Gausman along with a need to get under the tax could set off a full rebuild. All the rentals plus Vlad/Gaus/Bassit, Bichette not playing well enough, could make for some crazy deals and a burnt stove
I’m a broken record….It starts with FIRING shapiro first and his lacky GM useless atkins…..!!
The Cleveland Clowns cannot build a baseball team…..
It’s a shame they are still here ….
CLE is 1st in their division and just won division 2 years ago. But ok….
that’s without Shipro and Atkins, but okay
@Tankathon With baseball executives you can’t just say they were gone and cut off all credit. They build the roster and if the roster is still intact after they are gone, the performance is still a result of their work that is still intact after they are gone. In Shapiro’s case the entire starting lineup aside from an aging 1B was constructed while he was with the team.
Now coaches the credit for managing a team during a game credit stops immediately. You don’t have any influence on setting the lineup for each game, when to pull pitchers, how aggressive they are on base paths, defensive replacements, etc. Front office positions though the ramifications of their decisions are still influencing results after they are gone.
College football coaches leave teams and although they don’t influence the game decisions and don’t deserve credit in that regard once gone. Their prior recruiting and assembling of available talent to be coached influences games even in their absence.
Some of us here like the Clowns. Show some respect
@ JRam shapiro and his useless GM atkins, deserve Zero respect, look what they’ve done in nine years in Toronto. Cleveland is a Much better ball team after the 2 Cleveland Clowns left , add in 14 years of mediocrity in Cleveland and You go Nowhere with these two CLOWNS !!
Baltimore started their rebuild when shapiro landed unfortunately in Toronto , O’s are a great team now, like The Guardians…
ClE won division 7 times while he was there, went to playoffs 8 times and World Series once. The 2016 team was primarily constructed under Shapiro so he should get some credit for that World Series trip as well.
A bit better than mediocrity you CLOWN….
@Tigers3232 I appreciate the respect from a Tigers fan! You know ball
@CTS4 You must understand that I was trolling
Yeah my comment was completely directed at him. Shapiro’s CLE team was great in the 90s til the Yankee dynasty began. They re almost always a tough team to contend with for the division.
Love your username. I’ve always been a JoRam fan. Became an even bigger fan after the amount of $ he sacrificed to stay with his team. Don’t think a player has gave up that big of a % of potential earning since Gwynn.
When Cleveland went to the W.S. in ’16 . Shapiro was gone and the new GM and Terry Francona got them there…..In ’15 shapiro was sent to his office and his door was locked by the owners …Terry Francona would not come to Cleveland unless shapiro had nothing to do with baseball ops.
Cleveland fans were extremely happy to see the 2 Cleveland Clowns go …
Hargrove was still the Manager in 96. And every starting position player on 96 team except an aging Julio Franco was acquired under Shapiro.
@CTS4, the broken reocrd is correct. I have been calling in these pages for Shapiro and Atkins replacement since 2016. Just saying.
@ jimmer…You certainly have been !!
Jays should sign Mitch Marner.
The sooner they unload the rentals the more salary they save to get under the luxury tax line.
Not a Jays fan (M’s), but what a disaster. Guerrero won’t re-sign, nor will Bichette, and the latter is untradeable at SS due to his deficincies there.
Sell! Sell! Sell!
“Trading Vlad and Bichette doesn’t make sense for us”. Really? It doesn’t? What doesn’t make sense is hanging on to players that 1. Are hitting FA soon and likely will leave and 2. are not single handedly helping your team to catch the better teams in the AL. Anaheim made the same idiotic decision to not trade Ohtani while he was worth a boat load and missed out massively. Toronto is gonna do the same if they balk on this opportunity. Don’t be idiotic, be realistic.
If the jays decided to fully sell they could build a pretty strong farm system in just 3 weeks. I get they could sell rentals, get under the tax perhaps and be buyers again next offseason with some good players. The problem is they would be risking it all on next season being a dream season. If that dream doesn’t come to fruition then they could be in pretty bad shape come 2026.
They should be able to get something decent for Kikuchi and perhaps garcia if he is healthy. With all the potential buyers they could get a good number of top prospects if they traded Bo, Vlad, Bassitt, Guasman and Berrios.
The hardest choice a team has to make is when is it time to admit the plan didn’t work and start again. Especially if the front office feels like their job is in the line.
The Plan for the BlueJays will never work for Shapiro and Atkins. We know that now. We have seen it. It is time to try to sell everyone except Berrios, Vladdy, Martinez and Horowitz. Sell now.
Just dealing rentals isn’t good enough. Another half effort like 2017 will set the Jays back once again. Before you come in to argue, remember the Jays had zero division titles during the 2020-2023 run. We also don’t know how much money could have been saved early on had they done a proper teardown.
Only way Atkins can save face is to revamp the scouting department with more baseball people, clear out all the Assistant GMs and tweak the minor league coaching staff. More baseball people, less analytical guys aka “khakis”. They have enough of them.
Right on. We are in full agreement. as above: The Plan for the BlueJays will never work for Shapiro and Atkins. We know that now. We have seen it. They are not the leadership to turn this thing around. It is time to try to sell everyone except Berrios, Vladdy, Martinez and Horowitz. Sell now.
No. The plan will not work with Rogers. They are the problem. 24 years of data.
Honestly can’t say what’s best for the Jays regarding the multi-year guys, but definitely seems best to punt on your rentals and expiring contracts.
I’ve watched Kikuchi’s last few starts, and his overall performance has been worlds better than his final stat line. Trouble getting through the lineup on the 3rd rotation.
Turner and Kikuchi should be looked at by the Astros
Better make it 15, just to really make sure he signs. His salary will also be deferred until 2075.
1) Replace the two dudes at the top with respected baseball people.
Reason: people (any people) always want to work for a good boss. I suspect players from last year didn’t re-sign and ran from this cluster. Current players need the support from respected management. Future free agents would sign to be with good management.
2) watching games in San Fran…they have a smaller park that’s only half full…and half of that group was wearing Jay’s blue. Mr. Rogers has to wake up to realize that the Jay’s have a dedicated fan base that will crumble if something isn’t done soon. Time to send the two at the top back to Cleveland.
The thing is Cleveland doesn’t want them back lol…..
Well….you never know unless you ask…..
I can’t see a AL East trade with Baltimore but if Kikuchi struggles with right homers, Wall-timore is the natural fit for him to limit the long ball. packaged with Bassitt — they could fill #3 and #4 ahead of Kremer at #5. Albert Suarez could fill as long man in the pen and dial up the velo. Orioles would still need another high leverage reliever but those 3 arms would fill a growing need for the post season.
Baltimore has plenty of farm assets and vets (Montcastle and Urias?) to ship to Toronto. Monty loves to hit in the SkyDome (sorry, it’ll always be that to me).
TOR needs to shake things up.
It would be stupid for them to move Bo as they’d be selling very low. Now, Vlad, on the other hand , they should at least be open to listening to offers for him, especially if they don’t plan on signing him to an extension.
I could see Vlad being traded to Houston
Are those commenting here even aware that Vlad is 25 years old and Bo is 26. They are the age where teams trade their farm to acquire and they are team assets for ten years or more. They are also the players the Jays would trade the farm to acquire, much like Soto in Washington. Do fans actually believe they will get a Soto return on either – not likely. Then, the Jays need a rebuild and if they discard the players that they built around, what good was trading them for prospects that are then discarded and traded away yet again to replace them. That is stupidity, but that is the fans mindset in 2024. If players aren’t hitting .400, with a 2000 Ops, 100 homers and 400 RBI’s, they are useless and should be thrown away on a name that stumbles to a .200 average, 15 homers, and 60 RBI’s with a .659 OPS. Oh and they are a big name so fans want to throw 40 MIllion a year at them for ten years, sabotaging and decimating the team for decades into the future.
Tbh I think Bo will never be what he was before… so I don’t really care if they move him. Let’s say he had an .800 OPS right now, what are you gonna get ? A decent bullpen arm with 2 years of control? Or a AA prospect you never heard of batting .250 with no power? That’s what these trades are looking like these days. So if you can get anything close to that just do it.. I do NOT want Bo Bichette getting a 10 year $350 mill extension so he can play bad defense and hit .250 with a .730 career OPS… no thanks
Oh man… getting super excited for those headlines : Jays trade x for “player to be named later” , cash considerations or the other teams 35th ranked prospect… it’s gonna be edge of your seat stuff
Every pending free agent plays out of his mind because he wants to get paid.
Bo&Vladdy will both be top 5 mvp next year.Then sign huge contracts with somebody.
I seriously doubt both will be in the top 5 for MVP.