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White Sox Won’t Trade For Prospects

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White Sox GM Kenny Williams spoke to reporters yesterday, indicating that his phone lines are buzzing but he won’t be trading his future free agents for prospects.  Talent for talent is the name of the game, though the Jermaine Dye/Bobby Abreu talks have apparently died.

The Sox are given a meager 1.7% chance to make the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA.  And I rounded up.  They’re in fourth place, seven games back in the AL Central.  They’re in fifth for the wild card, 4.5 games out.  If we try this exercise without PECOTA projections, the chances still seem bleak at 4.1%.  Using a third method, Elo, the Sox have an 11.2% chance.  I’d lean toward the latter; while the competition is fierce, 4.5 games doesn’t seem insurmountable.

Williams is an optimist, which fans have to appreciate.  He even mentioned that he’s up for the "rent-a-player scenario."  That could mean acquiring even more impending free agents, like perhaps Adam Dunn.

Like all other teams, Williams has almost two months to decide if his team is truly a contender.  The worst outcome would be treading water for that time period.

Goldman On A-Rod

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Steven Goldman has a well-reasoned column in the New York Sun today discussing why it’s important for the Yankees to trade Alex Rodriguez.  Here’s a hint: they need to restock on position players.  It’s not about the tabloid stuff or the infamous "hah!"  Personally I like the tactic but wouldn’t use "hah."  When I played sandlot ball we used to shout "Confusion!  Confusion!" over and over when a couple of guys would get under a pop-up.  It worked once in a while. 

Basically A-Rod is still a marketable superstar, and the Yankees are going to have plenty of holes in the near future.  It’d be best not to patch them up with more $15MM guys.  James Loney plus Matt Kemp from the Dodgers would be perfect, if Ned Colletti would do it.  Rodriguez would have to waive his no-trade and provide a window for an extension, I imagine.

Such a strategy, however, runs counter to the Roger Clemens signing.  Once Clemens hits the Majors the team will be in full win-now mode, so it’s important to decide whether to trade Rodriguez very soon.

Yanks Could Ditch Clemens

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You have probably read by now that Roger Clemens’s massive 2007 salary is not guaranteed, and the Yankees still have the option of walking away.  Brian Cashman says he’s not thinking about it right now, but surely the idea has crossed his mind.

The Rocket hopes to overcome his "fatigued groin" and make his season debut on Saturday against the Bucs.  That injury offers all kinds of dirty jokes but I’ll resist for now.  Back to the situation at hand – should the Yanks be backing out of this while they still can? 

The value of a player certainly hinges on his ability to push a team into a playoff berth.  The $4.6MM a month for Clemens can almost be justified if it’s getting the Yanks over the hump.  At fourth place and 12.5 games behind the Yankees, a division title is out.  They’re seven games out of the wild card, but need to leapfrog seven teams.  Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA think the Yankees still have a 22% chance of making the playoffs. 

Pitching, particularly starting pitching, remains a clear need.  If Clemens gives them a 3.80 ERA and Mussina rights the ship, they’ll have four solid starters.  Phil Hughes can give a boost in August.  On the offensive side, Cano, Damon, and Abreu have all been underachieving.  If a few of those guys can pick it up, the offense could rival the Red Sox for the balance of the season. 

There is definitely enough promise with this club to stick with the Clemens plan.

Abreu For Dye Swap Still Alive

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Ken Rosenthal’s recent report indicated that the Jermaine Dye for Bobby Abreu talks had cooled over the last week or so.  However, Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times indicated today that this deal "has started to take some life."

Read the article, and you’ll find some quotes from Dye that apparently have annoyed the White Sox.  Personally I think his comments are just fine.  Basically he says that he will play hard for any team, and that swapping him for another veteran won’t ignite the Sox.  Who can disagree with that?  Would Abreu really spark the Sox?

The last time the Sox made a challenge trade like this, if I recall correctly, was the Esteban Loaiza for Jose Contreras swap, also with the Yankees.  That occurred at the 2004 trading deadline, and worked out quite well for the Sox.

I don’t like this trade for Chicago though.  Despite his struggles, Dye is on a 30 homer pace.  And the $16MM option on Abreu next year – that’s only appealing if he’s an All-Star for the White Sox.  That’s hard to picture given what we’ve seen, but maybe Greg Walker has ideas on how to fix him.

It should also be noted that the Giants have been scouting the White Sox recently, and could look to acquire Dye or others.

Rosenthal’s Latest Video

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Ken Rosenthal reeled off a slew of sweet trade rumors in a couple of videos today, which you can watch at FOXSports.  Let’s discuss.

  • Rosenthal says the Cubs won’t trade Carlos Zambrano unless they fall out of contention or the big righty requests a trade.  Rosenthal finds neither scenario likely.  He says Zambrano still has a good relationship with Jim Hendry, and the Cubs still intend to sign him.  The contract remains on hold.  Interesting, but not surprising to see that the Cubs are still veering towards this mistake after what we’ve seen this year.
  • Lots of good Jermaine Dye stuff from Rosenthal.  About ten days ago, the White Sox kicked around the idea of sending Dye to the Yankees for Bobby Abreu.  The Yanks covet Dye’s right-handed power, and Ozzie loves Abreu, his countryman.  Rosenthal says the White Sox like the option of keeping Abreu for $16MM in ’08 if they so choose.  That option comes with a $2MM buyout attached.  The Dye/Abreu swap may be on hold because Dye is finally showing some signs of life.  I have to be honest – I don’t understand the timeline here.  If the Sox were considering this ten days ago, nothing Dye has done since should have changed their thinking.
  • Other suitors for Dye: the Padres or Dodgers.  The two NL West competitors rank 10th and 12th in the league in slugging, respectively.  No doubt the Dodgers have the goods, but what reasonable trade could the Padres work out?  Kenny Williams and Kevin Towers have matched up twice before, but on minor trades involving guys like D’Angelo Jimenez and Geoff Blum.
  • Rosenthal says the Padres are also eyeing Adam Dunn, for whom their pitchers’ ballpark would present less of an obstacle.  Two hitches: Dunn can become a free agent after this season if he’s traded, and the Reds will ask for a lot.  The Padres’ best pitching prospect, Cesar Carrillo, recently had Tommy John surgery.  Their best hitting prospect, Cedric Hunter, is trying to figure out Low A ball.  Third baseman Chase Headley is hitting well in Double A, and I’m sure plenty of teams would like to have him.  Headley is somewhat blocked by Kevin Kouzmanoff.  Honestly, though, the Padres don’t have much in the minors to trade.  At the Major League level, they might be able to part with Cla Meredith and get a decent hitter in return. 

Time To Trade Johnny Damon?

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Bob Klapisch raises a possibility I haven’t seen yet: should the Yankees start shopping center fielder Johnny Damon?

Damon is earning $13MM annually through 2009, and has a partial no-trade clause.  His age 33 season has been a disappointment so far; he’s hitting .259/.363/.364.  His flyball rate is down from 40% to 32%; that might have something to do with it. 

Damon was supposed to enter the 2007 season in good health, with a broken foot bone healed and his shoulder 100%.  However, he began the regular season with cramps in his calves.  That developed into a strain, and then hamstring and back problems surfaced in late April.  Jason Giambi’s injury will give the Yankees a chance to DH Damon, but it really seems like he needs to rest for two weeks on the DL.

Trading Damon would not be easy right now, and would qualify as selling low.  The Yankees would probably have to eat some of his salary.  I really can’t think of a club that would make sense though.  I’d suggest the White Sox, but they seem too thrilled with Darin Erstad.

 

The A-Rod Story

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The tabloid stuff involving Alex Rodriguez really doesn’t deserve any more press than it’s already gotten, so I’ll keep it brief.  I should point out that Stray-Rod has already been suggested in the comments of this post.

It’s tough to call Rodriguez’s next team, as I imagine he wants to get out of the limelight but play for a contender.  The thing is, small market teams don’t typically shell out $200MM contracts.  The Indians or White Sox seem like decent fits.  Chicago media probably wouldn’t put that kind of pressure on Rodriguez’s personal life, though I wouldn’t put it past the Sun-Times.

Barry Rozner likes the fit with the Angels over the Chicago clubs.

 

More Teixeira Talk

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It seems that the hot topic this summer will be Mark Teixeira and a possible trade.  This could end up another Alfonso Soriano/A.J. Burnett situation, where there’s tons of words wasted but no deal.

Buster Olney believes the Rangers will get some "tepid offers," with no team willing to pony up top prospects.  He also mentions that the Yankees have little to no interest in getting involved.  Though I think that could change if Brian Cashman is pushed out of power.

Teixeira makes $9MM this year, and could make $14MM or so in arbitration for 2008.  As a Boras client, you know he’ll hit the open market after that.  So if you trade for him, you’re basically getting 1.7 seasons of Teixeira for $20MM or so.

He’s an above average hitter, no one can argue that.  An average first baseman will post an .800 OPS, while Teixeira should be around .900.  The Tigers, Braves, Dodgers, and Orioles are all contenders with a weakness at first base.  Maybe no one is shelling out two top shelf prospects/young players, but some team should at least come up with one.  I still like a Daniel Cabrera for Teixeira swap.  Cabrera, while young and inconsistent, keeps the ball on the ground and at least has the potential of bringing fair value.  His 2007 walk rate, while still a problem, is easily the best of his career.   

Not sure if the Braves would give up Salty for Tex, but I imagine Jon Daniels would be receptive.  The Dodgers could give up one solid guy, maybe a James Loney.  The Tigers might be able to solve their problem simply by playing Marcus Thames at first every day.  Who says he can’t post an .850 OPS?

Heyman On Teixeira

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With the trading deadline a mere two months away, we have to drum up some big names on which to speculate.  The advent of no-trade clauses and the valuation of young pitching seems to have resulted in fewer blockbusters.  Mark Teixeira seems to be this summer’s big name. 

We last speculated about Teixeira two weeks ago.  The Orioles and Nick Markakis were discussed, as well as the fit for the Angels.  The Nationals were seen as a long shot.  Jon Heyman has talked to some baseball execs on this topic, and he’s got more ideas.  Heyman adds the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers to the mix as well.

The Yanks seemingly wouldn’t mind adding a major slugger at first base, and Heyman’s source doesn’t think they want Todd Helton.  But unless the Yanks revert to their old ways and trade The Franchise – Phil Hughes – a Teixeira acquisition seems unlikely.  The Yankees don’t have other elite pitching prospects.  They would have to go to more established players.  The Rangers don’t have a fit for Robinson Cano, though Chien-Ming Wang and his groundballing nature could work.

There’s no real reason for the Red Sox to give up the farm for Teixeira, unless they just want to keep him from the Yankees.  I don’t see it. 

The Dodgers I see as a strong player.  James Loney plus one of their top-rated starting pitching prospects and it’s a done deal.  I’m not sure Nomar can handle third base these days, but I don’t see that problem preventing a trade.   

Back to the Orioles – as much as Teixeira is dying to play for them, he’s not going to take a big discount and the price in young players will be high.  Then again, if the O’s could work something out involving Daniel Cabrera but not Markakis, that gamble could work for both clubs. 

The Angels are a fantastic fit, but when has Bill Stoneman ever made a trade like this?  I guess there’s a first time for everything.

Let’s not count out the Mets, Braves, or Tigers, either.

Yankees Looking At Helton, Fuentes

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Plenty of Todd Helton to the Yankees rumors surfacing lately, the first of which came via Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball.  Healey also mentioned the Yanks’ interest in Brian Fuentes last Friday. 

Today, Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post confirms those rumors on the Rockies side of things.  While the interest in confirmed, Renck says "nothing is brewing."  Guess we’ll have to wait a month or so, to see if desperation sets in. 

There had been a lot of talk of the "New Yankees," who are building from within and not taking on ridiculous contracts.  But with players like Bobby Abreu, Roger Clemens, and Helton, the Yankees are simply using financial clout like the old days.  I suppose holding onto Phil Hughes is a step in the right direction though.

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