Non-Tender Candidate: Ryan Theriot
Dodgers second baseman Ryan Theriot will be eligible for arbitration for the second time this winter. He will earn $2.6MM this season after losing his arbitration case with the Cubs last offseason, when he filed for $3.4MM.
Theriot, 30, hit .284/.320/.327 in 412 plate appearances while playing both second base and shortstop for Chicago before being sent to the Dodgers in the Ted Lilly trade at the deadline. In 132 plate appearances as Los Angeles' everyday second baseman, The Riot has hit .307/.380/.377, drawing nearly as many unintentional walks (13) as he did with the Cubs (16) in 280 fewer plate appearances. UZR pegs him as an average defender at second, but well below that level at short.
It's tough to imagine GM Ned Colletti acquiring a player only to non-tender him a few months later, but he has to at least entertain the option with Theriot. A career .288/.352/.363 hitter, Theriot received a $2.1MM raise last offseason, and a strong finish with the Dodgers could bump his salary up another $2MM this offseason. The free agent market looks to be flooded with light hitting middle infielders that could approximate Theriot's production for a fraction of the cost.
Remember, Colletti doesn't have to non-tender Theriot only to let him walk. He could attempt to re-sign him at a lesser salary, perhaps exchanging a second guaranteed year for a salary discount.
With that in mind, it's time for you to weigh in. Click here to vote whether or not you think Theriot will be non-tendered, and here to see the results.
Non-Tender Candidate: Melky Cabrera
Braves outfielder Melky Cabrera will be eligible for arbitration for the third time as a Super Two this winter. He's earning $3.1MM this year; will the Braves tender him a contract and potentially give him a raise for 2011?
Cabrera, 26, started off very slowly this year but has come around of late, and is hitting .260/.319/.370 in 422 plate appearances. Capable of playing all three outfield spots, UZR grades him out as below average in center and basically average in the corners.
Part of the deal that sent Javier Vazquez to the Yankees, Cabrera essentially fits the profile of the fourth outfielder yet has been thrust into full-time duty over the last several seasons. He won a World Series ring with New York last season, but I suspect the Braves won't care too much when making a decision on whether or not to tender Cabrera a contract for 2011 in December. This is Melky's third time through the arbitration process as a Super Two, so whatever salary he receives this season will impact his 2012 compensation as well.
Melky received a rather generous $1.7MM raise last winter, more than doubling his 2010 salary. That, however, was coming off the best season of his career, in which he hit .274/.336/.416 with a career best 13 homers. He and his agent shouldn't expect a similar raise this time around with a sub-.700 OPS and a career low four long balls. Even if he were to take a modest $400K raise to $3.5MM, it's not terribly difficult to find outfielders more productive than him at that cost, especially in today's market. We also have to consider Nate McLouth's $6.5MM salary for next season, since the Braves might not want to spend upwards of $10MM on a pair of below average outfielders.
With all that in mind, it's time for you to weigh in. Click here to vote on whether or not Cabrera will be non-tendered, and here to see the results.
Non-Tender Candidate: Clint Barmes
Rockies second baseman Clint Barmes will be eligible for arbitration one last time this winter. He's already earning $3.325MM this year; will the team tender a contract and potentially give him a raise for 2011?
Barmes, 31, lost most of his power this year en route to a .241/.307/.360 line through 400 plate appearances. By measure of UZR Barmes has played average defense at second base the last few years and as a bonus he has significant experience at shortstop.
The Rockies flirted with the idea of acquiring Dan Uggla as far back as the offseason, reportedly discussing offering Barmes and a prospect with the Marlins. Nonetheless, the Rockies made a multiyear offer to Barmes that would've guaranteed his 2010-11 salaries and included a club option for 2012. Instead, the Rockies now have the flexibility to cut him. Sometimes the looming possibility of a non-tender can kill offseason trade value, as in the case of Matt Capps last winter. If the Rockies don't intend to retain Barmes, it may make sense to move him now. Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post wrote on Thursday that a handful of teams are waiting for the Rockies to put Barmes on waivers.
If Uggla can't be had in the offseason, the Rockies could consider free agents such as Orlando Hudson or Juan Uribe to play second base. Internal options may include Jonathan Herrera, Eric Young Jr., and Chris Nelson.
Less than a year ago Barmes was coming off a 23 home run season and the Rockies wanted to lock him up. Assuming Barmes does not change teams this month, they must decide whether to even tender a contract for 2011. Click here to predict the Rockies' decision, and here to see the results.
Non-Tender Candidate: J.J. Hardy
My listing of Twins shortstop J.J. Hardy yesterday as a non-tender candidate inspired much debate in our comments section. Let's dig deeper into the situation.
In terms of Wins Above Replacement, Hardy's 1.8 this year ranks fifth in the American League on the FanGraphs leaderboard. Hardy's done this in only 70 games, as he's missed time due to a bruised wrist. His bat his been about league average for AL shortstops, while much of his value is derived from what UZR/150 suggests is well above-average defense. Hardy has been strong in UZR every year of his career, not just the 580 innings in 2010.
However, I am guessing the Twins will not look closely at WAR when making the decision on whether to tender Hardy a 2011 contract in December. They'll first need to determine how much Hardy will seek or earn for next year, his final season before free agency. It's promising that Twins only needed to give Hardy a $450K raise coming off a disappointing 2009 season. They might be able to sign him for less than $6MM one last time. Hardy can't be too aggressive in his salary demands, as his agent Mike Seal surely knows that UZR numbers probably won't help his client in front of an arbitration panel and weak offensive counting stats would hurt him.
The Twins probably haven't decided yet whether Hardy is worth $6MM or so to them in 2011. They'll be considering alternatives. Trevor Plouffe is an internal option, though his work in a second Triple A stint doesn't stand out. Alexi Casilla will be around next year as well. The free agent market is weak, with Juan Uribe one of the better options the Twins can consider. The trade market could offer Stephen Drew, Jamey Carroll, Jack Wilson, or even a second round with Jason Bartlett.
With those thoughts, it's time for you to weigh in. Click here to vote on whether Hardy will be non-tendered, and here to see the results of the poll.
Odds & Ends: McCourts, Strasburg, Cotts
Some tidbits from around baseball as we enjoy Game One of the ALCS…
- Bill Shaikin and Harriet Ryan of the L.A. Times have some ominous news for Dodgers fans surrounding the separation of Frank and Jamie McCourt: his attorneys claim he is the sole owner of the Dodgers, while her lawyers say the team's ownership is split 50-50 between the soon-to-be ex-couple.
- On the night of Stephen Strasburg's professional debut in the Arizona Fall League, Jack Magruder of the Washington Times notes that Strasburg won't pitch much in the AFL.
- Reliever Neal Cotts doesn't know if the Cubs will non-tender him, but he is just focused on pitching somewhere in 2010 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July, reports MLB.com's Carrie Muskat.
- Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel relates a nice anecdote about Craig Counsell to illustrate why he thinks the Brewers should bring back the veteran infielder in 2010.
- MLB.com's Mychael Urban praised the young, talented and affordable Oakland bullpen in his ongoing team report card series.
- Manny Acta and Bob Melvin "have to be 1-2" for the Houston manager's job thus far, says MLB.com's Brian McTaggart (via Twitter)
Non-Tender Candidates
December 12th marks baseball's non-tender deadline. That's when teams decide whether to offer a contract to the unsigned players on their 40-man roster. Players not tendered a contract become free agents, so we'll add a good 30 players to the list. It is a chance for certain players to reach free agency without putting in the typical six years of service time. Past non-tenders include David Ortiz, Jayson Werth, Rick Ankiel, Ryan Franklin, David Eckstein, and Chad Durbin. Last year Ty Wigginton, Jonny Gomes, Willy Taveras, and Takashi Saito were among those cut loose. Usually at least a few useful guys are unearthed and a handful sign for more than a million bucks.
Below I've listed non-tender candidates for each team; it's mostly speculative. Feel free to debate or add names in the comments; I may add to the list based on that. A few of these players – Jeff Francoeur, John Maine, Mark Teahen, and Delmon Young – are unlikely, but were included anyway.
Jeremy Accardo
Garrett Atkins
John Bale
Denny Bautista
Jose Bautista
Matt Belisle
Boof Bonser
Bill Bray
Brian Bruney
Taylor Buchholz
John Buck
Dave Bush
Daniel Cabrera
Ryan Church
Neal Cotts
Jack Cust
Randy Flores
Mike Fontenot
Jeff Francoeur
Ryan Garko
Joey Gathright
Chad Gaudin
Jody Gerut
Gabe Gross
Craig Hansen
Aaron Heilman
Jeremy Hermida
Shawn Hill
Conor Jackson
Mike Jacobs
Bobby Jenks
Kelly Johnson
Logan Kensing
Noah Lowry
John Maine
Andy Marte
Seth McClung
Brandon Medders
Corky Miller
Justin Miller
Sergio Mitre
Dioner Navarro
Scott Olsen
Joel Peralta
Scott Proctor
Robb Quinlan
Kelly Shoppach
Tim Redding
Jeremy Reed
Jason Repko
Cory Sullivan
Jack Taschner
Mark Teahen
Marcus Thames
Josh Towers
Matt Treanor
Doug Waechter
Chien-Ming Wang
Tyler Yates
Delmon Young