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Non-Tender Candidates

Non-Tender Candidate: Conor Jackson

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When Billy Beane traded for Conor Jackson this June, he was presumably hoping to see the left fielder return to his 2006-08 form. For three years, Jackson combined patience and doubles power to be a productive piece of the Diamondbacks offense, so the former top prospect clearly has the ability to handle major league pitching.

But the player Beane acquired for reliever Sam Demel did not produce. Jackson, who missed all but 30 games in 2009 with Valley Fever, posted a .228/.362/.316 line in Oakland with one homer. He's now out for the season with a sports hernia, and he only batted 69 times, but his numbers weren't noticeably different in Arizona. Jackson doesn't have much to show for 2009 or 2010, consecutive injury-plagued seasons that have turned him into a non-tender candidate.

The D'Backs raised Jackson's salary from $3.05MM to $3.1MM last offseason, but the A's may not feel comfortable paying him over $3MM in 2011, Jackson's final season as an arbitration eligible player. In fact, Jackson's injuries and poor performance suggest the A's are likely to non-tender him. Click here to vote on Oakland's choice and here to view the results.

Non-Tender Candidate: Brian Tallet

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Heading into this season, Brian Tallet's second year of arbitration eligibility, the Blue Jays nearly doubled the left-hander's 2009 salary, signing him for $2MM. Tallet hadn't enjoyed an overly successful 2009, recording a 5.32 ERA and 1.67 K/BB, but he was a useful innings eater for the Jays, starting 25 games and pitching 160.2 IP.

In 2010, Tallet hasn't even provided value as an innings eater, earning less than half the playing time he did a year ago. In 30 appearances (five starts), the southpaw, who turns 33 tomorrow, has seen his ERA (6.28) and BB/9 (4.5) rise, while his strikeout rate (5.9 K/9) has declined. Even if Tallet didn't receive a raise through arbitration this winter, it seems unlikely that the Jays would want to pay $2MM to a player coming off such an underwhelming season.

Tallet does have two factors working in his favor, however: three of Toronto's late-inning relievers (Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, and Jason Frasor) are facing possible free agency, meaning there could be plenty of holes to fill in the club's bullpen. Plus, the silver lining in Tallet's 2010 season has been his ability to shut down left-handed hitters. In 106 plate appearances against Tallet, lefties have hit just .181/.236/.362, striking out 26 times. The Jays have plenty of other options to fill out their 2011 rotation, so they could decide to retain Tallet not in a starting or mop-up role, but as a left-handed specialist out of the 'pen. At $2MM, there are worse investments.

Still, the 32-year-old's numbers against lefties this year may not translate to future success – for his career, left-handers have a .740 OPS against Tallet. And even if he continued to shut down lefties, the market price for LOOGYs isn't high. It took Joe Beimel, who has filled a similar role in Colorado this season, nearly the entire offseason to land a one-year, $850K minor league deal with the Rockies.

Will Tallet be non-tendered by the Blue Jays? Click here to weigh in with your vote, and click here to view the results of the poll.

Non-Tender Candidate: Ryan Church

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For the second consecutive season, Ryan Church has played well enough to appear in 100 games, but poorly enough to become a non-tender candidate. Last year, the Braves non-tendered Church instead of offering him anything close to his 2009 salary of $2.8MM and he faces similar uncertainty heading into the 2010-11 offseason.

The Pirates signed Church for $1.5MM and saw him hit just .182/.240/.312 before they traded him to Arizona in July. The 31-year-old has hit well for the D'Backs, as his .279/.354/.535 line shows, but his 48 plate appearances in the desert haven't earned him any guarantees for 2011. 

Church has played all three outfield positions this year, and though he hasn't logged a significant number of innings in 2010, we can say that he is versatile and has posted slightly above average UZRs for seven consecutive seasons. His batting average on balls in play is 60 points below his career mark, but he is hitting fewer liners and more fly balls than usual, so this isn't purely a case of bad luck.

Despite his good at bats in Arizona and his versatility in the outfield, Church won't necessarily see a contract offer from the D'Backs. It won't be hard to find fourth outfielders for $1-2MM through free agency, so it seems unlikely that the D'Backs will offer Church a contract for a comparable amount of money after a mostly disappointing season. Let's see what you think. Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

Non-Tender Candidate: Kevin Kouzmanoff

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At first glance, Kevin Kouzmanoff's 2010 numbers look like exactly what the Athletics must have expected when they acquired him from the Padres in January. His .256/.291/.404 slash line is nearly identical to 2009's .255/.302/.420, and his power numbers have remained fairly consistent for his entire career; in his three years in San Diego, Kouzmanoff hit 18, 23, and 18 homers, along with 30, 31, and 31 doubles. His totals in Oakland so far this year? 14 and 31. Throw in his best defensive season, according to UZR, and it would seem that the 29-year-old should have no worries about being tendered a contract this winter.

There are a few areas of concern though, that the Athletics will undoubtedly take into account. For one, Kouzmanoff has seen his OPS gradually decline since his rookie year, down to .696 this year from .786 in 2007. And while Oakland's Coliseum is hardly a hitter's park, presumably the team was hoping that getting away from Petco would help Kouzmanoff's offense a little. During his Padres years, Kouzmanoff's OPS was typically about 100 points higher on the road – this year, his home and road marks are both below .700.

The Athletics were willing to trade for Kouzmanoff and pay him $3.1MM for his first arbitration-eligible season. Given his impressive defensive performance and only a slight dip in offensive production, perhaps the A's will be happy to tender the third baseman a contract, even taking into account an arbitration raise. But as a starting corner infielder with a sub-.700 OPS, Kouzmanoff has to be considered a non-tender candidate heading into the offseason.

Do you expect Kouzmanoff to be non-tendered after the season? Click here to weigh in, and click here to view the results.

Non-Tender Candidate: Bobby Jenks

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It's not often that a team cuts ties with an established closer before he accrues enough service time to qualify for free agency, but that's exactly what could happen with the White Sox and Bobby Jenks this winter. With a $7.5MM salary in 2010 and another year of arbitration eligibility left, Jenks' salary is only going to go up next season, possibility into the eight-figures.

Of course, the White Sox probably wouldn't entertain the idea of non-tendering their World Championship closer if his performance was in line with his compensation. His 4.44 ERA, .267 batting average against, and 3.08 BB/9 this season are career worsts, and it doesn't appear to be a one-year fluke either. Those three stats have gotten worse and worse every year since 2007, and Jenks will begin next season at 30-years-old. It's entirely possible that he's already reached his prime and is now on the way down.

Despite that, Jenks is still one of the better relief pitchers in the game. His 10.42 K/9 ranks right up there with other elite bullpeners, and after a gradual decline his average fastball velocity jumped back up to 95.0 mph this season. Jenks has also been victimized by some poor luck, with a .368 batting average on balls in play (league average is .302) and a 65.4 left-on-base percentage (72.0% league average). If those regress back to his career marks (.306 and 73.5% respectively), his ERA will almost certainly drop back down into the 3.00's.

The White Sox have absorbed a ton of salary obligation in the last two seasons, most notably in the form of Jake Peavy's and Alex Rios' long-terms deals, so they may decide that the money that would be spent on Jenks could be better used elsewhere. For what it's worth, the ChiSox already have a replacement closer in-house with Matt Thornton, and young (and cheap) hard-throwing setup men Sergio Santos and Chris Sale give the club some more options if nothing else. 

Do you think Chicago will part ways with its closer after the season? Click here to vote in the poll, and here to see the results.

Non-Tender Candidate: Cody Ross

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When the Giants were awarded Cody Ross on waivers last month, it likely increased Ross' chances of being tendered a contract for 2011. If the Marlins were willing to give Ross up for nothing but salary relief, they may have decided to part ways with Ross this winter rather than going to arbitration with him once more. The Giants, on the other hand, have a crowded outfield now, but Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, and Jose Guillen will be free agents after the season, meaning there should be room for Ross if the Giants choose to retain him.

Ross, who will turn 30 this winter, is earning $4.45MM this season and will be entering his final year of arbitration eligibility. He'll receive a raise, but not one as significant as last year's $2.225MM bump. After hitting .266/.319/.477 and averaging 23 homers per season in 2008 and 2009, he has seen his power numbers drop this year (.261/.315/.393, 11 homers). Still, UZR ranks Ross as an above-average defender, and paying him $5-6MM would hardly cripple the Giants' payroll.

Ross' future in San Francisco could be dictated by how the team decides to replace (or retain) its free agent outfielders. The Giants were occasionally linked to free agents like Jason Bay and Matt Holliday last winter, but they elected to eschew the big names in favor of more affordable players. Given the success they've had with that approach, they could easily try it again, perhaps non-tendering Ross in the hopes of striking gold with an even cheaper option, as they did with Huff ($3MM).

Do you expect the Giants to non-tender Ross this winter? Click here to weigh in, and click here to view the results.

Non-Tender Candidate: Zach Duke

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Last year, Zach Duke represented the Pirates at the All-Star Game, but after another poor outing, he has become a non-tender candidate. The 27-year-old leads the league in losses for the second consecutive season and while won-loss records don't mean much, Duke has also posted a career-high 5.78 ERA in 141.2 innings.

Duke makes $4.3MM this year, which means he won't be cheap if the Pirates offer arbitration. Even a modest raise would give the lefty a $5MM salary in 2011, which is roughly what Vicente Padilla, Brett Myers and Doug Davis signed for last winter. The Pirates will have to be prepared to pay Duke as well as established starters coming off better seasons if they offer arbitration.

But in spite of the ugly ERA and loss total, there's some hope for Duke. His 5.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 are respectable and he appears to be the victim of bad luck. No MLB pitcher who has as many innings as Duke has seen a higher percentage of batted balls fall in behind him for hits. Opponents have a .351 average on balls in play against Duke, which is well above his career mark. With better luck and potentially better defense, he could have a lower ERA.

It's also worth noting that only one MLB pitcher with as many innings as Duke has seen a higher percentage of fly balls leave the yard. Home runs haven't been a massive problem for Duke before, and if his homer levels return to normal, the rest of his numbers would look better, too. At this point, his stats don't look good, and we can't simply write this season off in the name of bad luck. Duke has not pitched well and his manager appears to be losing confidence in him.

The Brewers had interest in Duke last winter, according to FOX Sports. They're one of many teams likely to add starters this winter, so Duke would draw some interest if the Pirates non-tender him. Uncertainty surrounds Pittsburgh's 2011 rotation, partly because of Duke. The Pirates must decide whether to non-tender Duke and risk losing him to a rival team or offer him $5MM or so after a disappointing performance. I'm guessing the Pirates non-tender the left-hander and see if they can bring him back at a discount, but let's see what you think: Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

Non-Tender Candidate: Matt Diaz

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Nearly two weeks ago, when MLBTR's Mike Axisa examined Melky Cabrera's future, about two-thirds of you predicted the Braves would not tender the ex-Yankee a contract this winter. Cabrera isn't the only non-tender candidate in Atlanta's outfield, however; the Braves will also have to decide whether or not they want to retain Matt Diaz.

Like Cabrera, Diaz has suffered a decline in production in 2010 (.237/.284/.433) following a solid 2009 campaign (.313/.390/.488). After recording a career-high 371 plate appearances in 2009, Diaz has seen less action this year, due to a thumb injury, his decline in performance, and the arrivals of Cabrera, Jason Heyward, and Eric Hinske. Even Diaz's ability to mash left-handed pitching has wavered a little, as his .814 OPS vs. southpaws is a sizable step down from his .906 career mark.

Entering his final year of arbitration, Diaz shouldn't be expensive, since he'd earn no more than a modest raise on this year's $2.55MM salary. Still, he'll turn 33 before the 2011 season begins, and he doesn't have the same defensive flexibility that Cabrera does – UZR has ranked him as a below-average defender for the past three seasons. While Diaz could rebound and prove to be an affordable fourth outfielder with some pop for the '11 Braves, the club may decide to look in a different direction. If the Braves were to non-tender Diaz, they'd have the option of putting that $3MM or so in savings toward an impact free agent bat.

Do you expect the Braves to tender Diaz a contract this offseason? Click here to weigh in and click here to view the results.

Non-Tender Candidate: Willy Aybar

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The Rays are a team built around versatility, and one of their most flexible pieces in recent years has been infielder Willy Aybar. The 27-year-old has spent the majority of his big league time at third base, but can also handle spot duty at first and second. 

Aybar isn't a traditional non-tender candidate in that the decision is simply whether or not to offer him a contract for next season. The Rays signed him to a two-year deal worth $2.6MM guaranteed before 2009, and that deal includes $2.2MM club option for 2011 that can instead be bought out for $275K. Aybar still has two more years of arbitration eligibility left ahead of him, so Tampa could decline the option and then non-tender him for a total savings of $1.925M. 

A bargain in 2008 and 2009, Aybar hit .253/.329/.413 with double digit homers in each of those two seasons while playing no fewer than three positions. This year's been a different story, however, as he's fallen off to .235/.309/.348 with just five homers while spending the most of his time as a designated hitter against lefthanded pitching despite hitting just .252/.299/.390 off southpaws. Aybar's strikeout rate has risen for the third straight year as well.

Tampa is facing a payroll reduction next season, so parting ways with the increasingly unproductive Aybar could be one way to cut costs. That said, it's time to vote. Click here to tell us if you think the Rays will non-tender Aybar after the season, and here to see the results. 

Non-Tender Candidate: Jose Lopez

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Heading into this season, the 2011 option that the Mariners held for Jose Lopez seemed likely to be exercised. A $5MM price tag for a 26-year-old second baseman coming off a 25-homer season looked like a bargain.

With the season now winding down, however, the Mariners' decision doesn't look quite so obvious. Although he has provided the team better defense at third base than he did last year at second (according to UZR), Lopez's offensive production has fallen off a cliff. After hitting .272/.303/.463 in 2009, the infielder has seen his 2010 slash line slip to .240/.270/.331.

Lopez's down year means that the Mariners must now make a series of decisions this winter regarding his future. First, they'll have to decide if this season was an aberration for Lopez or whether they may have reason to expect more of the same next year. The 26-year-old was never adept at getting on base, but generally made up for it with his power stroke. With only seven home runs in 529 plate appearances this year, he's no longer doing that. Will he be able to get his slugging percentage back up to .450+ in 2011?

If the offensively challenged M's decide they'd like to have Lopez around next spring, they still have to determine whether to pick up or decline his option. Considering Lopez is making $2.75MM this year and his option is worth $5MM ($250K buyout), Seattle could elect to turn down the option and instead tender him a contract in his final arbitration-eligible season. Due to Lopez's struggles, whatever raise he would earn in arbitration should still see him earning less than the $4.75MM it would cost the team to exercise the option.

On the other hand, the Mariners could decide they don't have interest in retaining Lopez and his .298 career OBP at all, declining his option and then non-tendering him. What do you expect the Mariners to do? Click here to vote on their decision and click here to view the results.

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