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Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

By Tim Dierkes | March 4, 2009 at 2:57pm CDT

The Orioles are next in our Offseason In Review series.  Click here to see what we wrote about the team on September 4th.

Additions: Koji Uehara, Ty Wigginton, Rich Hill, Felix Pie, Cesar Izturis, Gregg Zaun, Ryan Freel, Adam Eaton, John Parrish, Mark Hendrickson, David Pauley, Brad Hennessey, Robby Hammock, Chad Moeller, Chris Gomez, Donnie Murphy, Jolbert Cabrera, Lou Palmisano

Subtractions: Kevin Millar, Ramon Hernandez, Daniel Cabrera, Adam Loewen, Jay Payton, Juan Castro, Alex Cintron, Freddie Bynum, Brandon Fahey, Garrett Olson, Brian Burres, Lance Cormier, Chad Bradford (midseason), Steve Trachsel (midseason), Randor Bierd

In September, I said that I didn’t see the need for the Orioles to throw away $5MM+ on a veteran innings eater despite their rotation uncertainty.  They did just that on Uehara (assuming he can indeed eat innings).  I don’t mind the signing though – the dollars weren’t huge and the team entered the Japanese market.  And maybe there’s something to be said for adding a little stability behind Jeremy Guthrie.

The Orioles’ rotation, dead last in the AL in ERA last year, almost can’t help but be better after subtracting the 6.00+ ERAs of Burres, Olson, and others. What can we say about Uehara, Hill, Eaton, Hendrickson, Parrish, Pauley, and Hennessey?  They’re different, at least, and aside from Uehara they cost next to nothing.  Even if one works out it’s a win.  In a perfect world the Orioles will have Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Jake Arrieta in the 2010 rotation, so most of this winter’s imports are placeholders.  Wigginton, Zaun, and Izturis also fit the placeholder mold; they weren’t terribly expensive.

Over $30MM will come off the books for the O’s after the ’09 season, so Andy MacPhail can make a surgical free agent strike if the team is ready to contend.  Matt Wieters may be an offensive force in the bigs by then, and you have to love Baltimore’s outfield.  MacPhail’s biggest needs will be the positions easiest to fill – the infield corners and the DH spot.

MacPhail’s Nick Markakis extension should be commended; such deals are usually favorable to the team.  Aspects of the Brian Roberts extension can be questioned, but it’ll hardly cripple the team.

Bottom line: 2009 is a year of transition for the Orioles, a team that is getting younger, better, and cheaper.  MacPhail’s offseason additions didn’t set the club back and a few could turn into long-term pieces.

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Baltimore Orioles Offseason In Review

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Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

By Tim Dierkes | March 3, 2009 at 10:46am CDT

Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Padres. Click here to read our comments about the team from September 3rd.

Additions: Cliff Floyd, Henry Blanco, David Eckstein, Emil Brown, Walter Silva, Kevin Correia, Jae Kuk Ryu, Mark Prior, Chris Burke, Everth Cabrera, Mark Worrell, retained Brian Giles, full season of Cha Seung Baek

Subtractions (includes players subtracted during ’08 season): Khalil Greene, Tadahito Iguchi, Josh Bard, Paul McAnulty, Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf, Wil Ledezma, Trevor Hoffman, Shawn Estes, Justin Germano, Clay Hensley, Bryan Corey

For all the talk of the Padres slashing payroll, they kept Jake Peavy and exercised Brian Giles’ option.  The Giles decision, made November 7th, seemed like a good idea at the time.

I mentioned in September that 2009 provides a nice window for contention for the Padres, since many salaries for current players will increase significantly in 2010.  While the Padres didn’t lose anyone terribly important, they also failed to do much to improve their lousy offense and bullpen or their middling rotation.

The offense could be a touch better, with Floyd plus more Headley and Gerut (and the subtraction of outmakers Greene and Iguchi).  Adrian Gonzalez and Giles will have to maintain their offensive production.  But this team needed a bat, and left fielders were affordable this winter.

Kevin Towers can probably cobble together a decent bullpen, but the rotation needs healthy years from Peavy and Chris Young plus multiple breakthrough/bounceback seasons from others.  Sean Smith’s CHONE projection system suggests the Padres are an 80 win team, mainly because of promising forecasts for hurlers like Kevin Correia, Josh Geer, Wade LeBlanc, Cha Seung Baek, Chad Reineke, and Josh Banks.

Bottom line: After an offseason of bargain bin veteran additions, the Padres’ hopes rest on good health and breakthroughs from young players.

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Offseason In Review San Diego Padres

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Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

By Tim Dierkes | March 2, 2009 at 4:36pm CDT

Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Mariners.  Take a look at what I had to say about them on September 2nd.  By the way for subtractions I’ll put anyone who had decent playing time for the team in ’08.

Additions:  Ken Griffey Jr., Russell Branyan,  Tyler Johnson,  Ronny Cedeno, Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, Garrett Olson, David Aardsma, Tyler Walker, Randy Messenger, Mike Sweeney, Jamie Burke, Reegie Corona,  Jason Vargas, Chris Shelton, Jason Phillips, Luis Pena

Subtractions: Raul Ibanez, Jose Vidro, Jeremy Reed, Richie Sexson, Miguel Cairo, Willie Bloomquist, R.A. Dickey, Sean Green, J.J. Putz, Ryan Feierabend (out for season), Cha Seung Baek

I like the direction Jack Zduriencik has taken with the Mariners.  He added a couple of cheap potential 20 HR bats in Griffey and Branyan.  He declined to spend big money on the bullpen.  He quietly added Olson to the starting mix.  He brought in Cedeno to push Yuniesky Betancourt.  And he improved the outfield defense with Gutierrez and Chavez.

2009 is a weird year for the Mariners – Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and Erik Bedard are in their contract years.  So we’ll see a lot of turnover in the 2009-10 offseason as well.  The ’09 club doesn’t look like a winning team on the surface.  It’s light on offense and certain players will be tested as full-timers.  But you have to wonder if a pitching and defense-oriented team could sneak into contention if Erik Bedard and Brandon Morrow have big years.

Bottom line: Jack Z. is well on his way toward remaking the Mariners, with a slew of savvy low-cost moves in his first winter as GM.

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Offseason In Review Seattle Mariners

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Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

By Tim Dierkes | February 25, 2009 at 4:33pm CDT

The offseason is not quite over, but things are obviously winding down.  Let’s kick off a new series called Offseason In Review.  We’ll go team-by-team through March.  First up is the San Francisco Giants; take a look at what we had to say on September 1st.

Additions: Randy Johnson (one year, $8MM), Edgar Renteria (two years, $18.5MM), Bob Howry (one year, $2.75MM), Jeremy Affeldt (two years, $8MM), Ramon Ortiz, Rich Aurilia, Juan Uribe, Brandon Medders, Francis Beltran, Luis Perdomo, Josh Phelps, Justin Miller

Subtractions: Jose Castillo (August), Omar Vizquel, Ray Durham (July), Kevin Correia, Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey, Vinnie Chulk, Erick Threets

In September I figured the Giants had $12-13MM to spend, but they spent more than $20MM in guaranteed ’09 salaries.  The fans have to appreciate that.

The Giants’ biggest need was offense, especially in the infield.  The no-risk moves to bring in Aurilia and Phelps could help a bit.  But the big addition, Renteria, wasn’t money well-spent.  The Giants signed him on December 4th, and it’s fair to say that no one was predicting Orlando Hudson would sign for 20.5% of the guaranteed money Renteria did.  Brian Sabean is not alone, but he did not read the market well here.  It’s true that the best free agent hitters were outfielders and the Giants are flush with those, but you can’t argue that the offense hasn’t improved much over the winter.

The Giants spent $13.75MM for ’09 on Johnson, Affeldt, and Howry, and I liked all three additions.  Despite the presence of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, the Giants’ pitching needed help.  If Johnson stays healthy and Jonathan Sanchez replicates his first-half performance, they’ll have one of the best rotations in the league.

Bottom line: thumbs up on the pitching additions, but that Renteria money would’ve been better spent on a bat or two.

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Offseason In Review San Francisco Giants

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Offseason In Review: November 2005 Lowlights

By Tim Dierkes | February 18, 2006 at 10:20am CDT

I started off with the good stuff from November, and now it’s only fair that I run through some of my missteps.

A lot of rumors that find their way onto the site come from other sources, which I’ve always been quick to credit.  With one of my early email tips, though, I didn’t give the rumor a reality check or delve deep enough to figure out its source.

I used the unfortunate headline "Cubs To Trade Todd Walker For Aaron Heilman" on November 14th.  It’s not wise to be so decisive when headlining a trade rumor, that’s for sure.  What’s more, the deal seems way lopsided knowing what we know now.  At the time, though, there was an impression that the Mets had soured on Heilman and were eager to deal him.  After a lot of flak, I figured out that this rumor originated on WFAN.  This one should’ve never made the site.

I had another post that month called "Mark Buehrle To The Cardinals," another poor headline choice.  I did begin that one by nothing that it was pure speculation, but the title implies otherwise.  For what it’s worth, I still think Buehrle will find his way to St. Louis within the next couple of years.

On November 23rd, I misquoted/misinterpreted a couple of sources and labeled the Juan Pierre to the Cubs trade as complete.  It wasn’t, and Cubs fans weren’t shy letting about reminding me until the deal actually did get done in December.  The silver lining buried in the gaffe is that I was able to get some fairly accurate info from Bruce Levine about the minor leaguers involved.

On November 29th, I busted out a Brad Wilkerson for Ronny Cedeno rumor.  It had a crazy-sounding story attached to it involving Barry Larkin’s cousin.  Although much scoffing and name-calling ensued, I still think these talks were legit.  In my opinion, it would’ve been fair value and helpful to both teams.  What’s more, a young shortstop prospect like Cedeno would’ve been a better bounty for Wilkerson than Alfonso Soriano.  Maybe one of these days I can get a hold of someone and find out if there was anything to this rumor.

Cubs fans had a pissed off vibe in general in November, as the Cubs flirted with Milton Bradley and Kevin Mench trades but ultimately signed John Mabry and a couple of relievers.

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Offseason In Review

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Offseason In Review: November 2005 Highlights

By Tim Dierkes | February 17, 2006 at 9:00am CDT

Back in November, I realized my love of the Hot Stove League was spilling over too much onto RotoAuthority.  I still wanted to talk a lot of fantasy baseball, but I crave real baseball too.  I started up MLBTradeRumors, and it quickly dwarfed RotoAuthority in popularity.  It’s been a mix of aggregating known sources plus whatever info I managed to gather.  Let’s take a look back at November at some of the highlights in my first month.  Don’t worry, I’ll discuss the worst of it in a separate post.

Highlights:

Back on November 13th, I got my first one right.  I reported the Cameron for Nady swap as close to a done deal, and it probably put this site on the map.  Rosenthal backed it up two days later, and the deal was done on the 16th.

On the 17th of November, I got word from an interesting source that the Mets, Indians, and Cardinals had contacted Octavio Dotel’s agent.  The Cards’ interest was confirmed in the Post-Dispatch on the 19th.  I can’t recall whether the other two teams’ interest was confirmed in the major media.  A month later, my source told me that Dotel’s preference was the Yankees, and he signed with them later that day.

My source confirmed that the Giants offered Matt Morris a three-year deal on November 20th.  Morris sat on that one for a while, and received a lowball offer from the Cards on December 10th.  The next day, Morris inked the Giants contract.

On November 21st, my Mets source told me that the Mets would offer Billy Wagner a $40MM deal with the fourth year guaranteed after his tour of the city and he planned to accept it.  In a regrettable move, I relayed actual dates for the deal mentioned by my source.  I missed on the date, but Wagner signed on the 28th.  I’d call it a half-success.

I had a tip on the 28th that the Phillies were talking about an Abreu for Bedard and Gibbons swap with the Orioles.  I’m fairly confident that similar discussions occurred, though I can’t guarantee I had it first.

On November 29th, I extracted a detail on the Cubs’ initial contract offer to Rafael Furcal:  four years, $38MM.  Who would’ve thought he’d get more than that for three years?

Also on the 29th, a source gave me word of an exciting memo to Cardinals employees.  I worked with Viva El Birdos to piece together various scenarios, and the Cards’ interest in A.J. Burnett soon came to the forefront.   

I definitely didn’t break this one, but it wasn’t yet well known that Paul Byrd was in Cleveland to talk business.  In this case, all I did was pass along a Scout.com message board posting to spread the word.  Some useful stuff comes out of message boards occasionally.

We had some blunders in November, which you’ll read about later.  But all in all, it was an exciting and successful inaugural month. 

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Offseason In Review

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