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Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Rangers.

Major League Signings

  • Rich Harden, SP: one year, $7.5MM.  Includes $11MM mutual option for 2011 with a $1MM buyout.
  • Vladimir Guerrero, DH: one year, $6.5MM.  Includes $9MM mutual option for 2011 with a $1MM buyout
  • Colby Lewis, SP: two years, $5MM.  Includes $3.25MM club option for 2012 with a $250K buyout.
  • Darren Oliver, RP: one year, $3.5MM.  Includes $3.25MM club/vesting option for 2011 with a $500K buyout.
  • Total spend: $22.5MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

Rangers GM Jon Daniels chose to gamble on upside this winter with the signings of Harden, Lewis, and Guerrero.  Harden could provide 150 innings of sub-3.00 ball, but he could also succumb to injuries or continue his homer-prone ways of '09.  Lewis could prove his massive success in Japan the last two years was no fluke, or his skills could be lost in translation.  Vlad could return to his 600 plate appearance/.900 OPS glory days, or he could have another injury-plagued year.

I like the strategy.  Daniels did not play it safe with the money he had available, yet his moves will not hurt the franchise long-term.  Don't forget that the Rangers have the best farm system in baseball.  Given the club option, Lewis could even be helping the Rangers affordably in 2012. 

If Vlad and Josh Hamilton are able to stay healthy, the Rangers should have a slightly above-average offense (based on CHONE projections).  Their attack looks powerful – only Elvis Andrus projects to slug under .400.  The rotation seems unpredictable.  We already discussed Harden and Lewis, while projections suggest Scott Feldman and Tommy Hunter will regress.  Options run deep, with studs like Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz in the mix, Martin Perez drawing raves, and Brandon McCarthy and Matt Harrison battling for innings.

The Rangers deserve credit for a strong offseason.  If they're in contention midseason and need another piece, no team is better-positioned to trade for a star player.

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Mariners.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The Mariners' offseason kicked off with a big positive on October 19th: they were freed of the $16MM left on Kenji Johjima's contract.  GM Jack Zduriencik went on to remake his team, spending over $51MM on free agent contracts and acquiring Lee, Bradley, League, and Kotchman via trade.

The Mariners spent big on their two extensions, guaranteeing almost $100MM to Felix and Gutierrez.  It's hard to argue with securing one of the best pitchers in baseball.  The Gutierrez extension made me shrug – the savings over going year-to-year probably weren't big.

Most of the free agent spending was used to lock down the left side of the infield with two plus defenders in Figgins and Wilson.  Figgins brings on-base skills as well, and should be worth the commitment.

On a team projected to have one of the worst offenses in the AL, the Griffey signing strikes me as unwise.  Bradley, at least, comes with the promise of his 2007-08 seasons.  By signing Griffey and acquiring Kotchman, the Ms didn't add much hitting at traditionally offensive spots.  Could that $5.8MM have gone toward a more productive free agent bat or two?  Zduriencik got three seasons of League plus a prospect for Morrow; were no interesting hitters being offered?  The Mariners must have decided that Morrow could not provide 25 respectable starts in 2010.

The front end of the Ms rotation, of course, looks fantastic.  Acquiring Lee, who was hardly known to be available, was a huge win for the Mariners.  The rotation lacks depth; Bedard can't be counted on for 100 innings.  The bright side is that projection systems think Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell can provide over 325 innings of 4.30 ball.  If they stumble, a midseason acquisition may be necessary.

The Mariners have some similarities to their division rival A's – questionable offenses, plus defenses.  It wouldn't be surprising to see a tight AL West race with all four clubs in the mix.

Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Athletics.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Michael Wuertz, RP: two years, $5.25MM.  Includes $3.25MM club option for 2012 with a $250K buyout.

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

This was an offseason of risk-taking for GM Billy Beane and company.  Three-year offers to Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro were rejected, but the A's succeeded in committing $17.5MM to Sheets, Duchscherer, and Crisp.  The pitchers tallied zero big league innings in 2009, while Crisp managed 49 games.

To be fair, Duchscherer at $2MM isn't a huge risk, even as he begins his season with back and hip pain.  That Casey Close found a $10MM guarantee for Sheets after the pitcher missed all of 2009 due to elbow surgery is surprising.  Perhaps the A's considered overpaying for Sheets their best route to importing an ace for 2010.  There's also the added benefit of trading him midseason if necessary.  The ace alternatives included trading for Roy Halladay, Javier Vazquez, or Cliff Lee, or signing John Lackey.

The A's must love Crisp's defense as much as the Red Sox once did, to make a $5.5MM commitment despite the player's two shoulder surgeries in 2009.  The club option is the silver lining on that contract.  An outfield of Crisp, Rajai Davis, and Ryan Sweeney could be spectacular defensively, and the Taylor-Wallace swap fits this theme.

Beane dealt from an area of strength to get Kouzmanoff, a credible third baseman.  To acquire Fox and Rosales, the cost was mostly the $2.6MM or so lost on Taveras' salary, as the A's can do without Gray, Morla, and Spencer.  Fox is a right-handed Cust without the walks, but at least the A's control the former Cub through 2015 if they choose.  Rosales can theoretically fill a utility infield role that would've cost a million or more to fill in free agency anyway.

The A's will need stellar pitching and defense to win the AL West, because their offense projects to be in the bottom half of the league again.  Even past their expected Opening Day rotation, most A's starters project to post ERAs in the low 4.00s and have the upside for more.  The bullpen could be the league's best once again.  The A's look like they have a shot this year, especially if they have the flexibility to trade for a bat midseason.  I should warn you, though, that I liked the A's heading into 2009 as well.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Angels.

Major League Signings

  • Bobby Abreu, RF: two years, $19MM.  Includes $9MM option for 2012 with a $1MM buyout; can vest based on plate appearances.
  • Joel Pineiro, SP: two years, $16MM.
  • Fernando Rodney, RP: two years, $11MM.
  • Hideki Matsui, DH: one year, $6MM.
  • Total spend: $52MM.

Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

My first reaction after reviewing the Angels' offseason is that this wasn't a great way to spend $52MM.  GM Tony Reagins appears to have overpaid several of his free agent signings.

Like many November deals in recent years, the Abreu contract looked OK at the time and worse as the offseason developed.  There's a very good chance his 2012 option vests and this becomes a three-year, $27MM deal for a questionable defender who turns 36 in March.  CHONE projects a .273/.368/.415 line, not unlike what Johnny Damon should do for one year and $8MM.  Matsui's deal looks a little high, but not excessive.

Rodney was brought in to assume an eighth inning role, and was paid on the strength of his 37 saves rather than his skills.  At least he can help prevent Brian Fuentes' $9MM option for 2011 from vesting, as that requires 55 games finished.

I liked the Pineiro move; Reagins did not panic when Lackey left.  Pineiro is unlikely to match Lackey, but it's still a positive signing.  Reagins also gets a thumbs-up for locking up Maicer Izturis for three years and getting something mildly useful back for Matthews.

Even without Lackey, the Angels have a good shot at improving upon last year's 4.44 rotation ERA.  Ervin Santana and Scott Kazmir are somewhat unpredictable, but have ace potential.  The Angels had the second-best offense in the AL last year, and CHONE predicts a dropoff to more of a middle of the pack performance.  At this point there is no clear AL West favorite, but the Halos remain a respectable contender despite a few questionable free agent contracts.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Twins.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

For about $20MM and Carlos Gomez, Twins GM Bill Smith revamped his middle infield, retained a mid-rotation starter, added an excellent bench bat, and signed a groundballing middle reliever.  On paper, Smith improved his team at a reasonable cost.

In Hardy, Smith traded for two seasons of the offseason's best available shortstop.  Hudson should easily earn his salary, and might be able to top last year's Twins second base offensive output (.209/.302/.267) batting blindfolded.  Pavano's '09 peripherals suggest he deserved an ERA around 4.00 as opposed to his actual 5.10 mark.  Thome should come in handy; he hit .262/.383/.498 against righties last year.

The Twins' rotation looks respectable, with Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano likely to provide much more than last year's 227.3 innings of 5.42 ball.  Does the lineup pack enough punch?  CHONE projections suggest the Twins will score 850 runs.  That's optimistic, since injuries are inevitable for all teams.  Still, it's all relative, and the Twins' offense projects as the best in the division.  Thanks to Smith's fine winter, the Twins are my AL Central favorite.

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Royals.

Major League Signings

  • Noel Arguelles, SP:  five years, $6.9MM.
  • Jason Kendall, C: two years, $6MM.
  • Rick Ankiel, OF: one year, $3.25MM.  Includes $6MM mutual option for '11 with a $500K buyout.
  • Scott Podsednik, OF: one year, $1.75MM.  Includes $2MM club option for '11 with a $100K buyout; player may void option with 525 PAs.
  • Brian Anderson, OF: one year, $700K.
  • Total spend: $18.6MM ($11.7MM not including Arguelles).

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

The signing of Cuban lefty Arguelles was the signature move of the Royals' offseason.  GM Dayton Moore added a prospect who would've been no worse than a top ten draft pick in 2009, according to ESPN's Keith Law, and he did so by simply making the highest bid.  Law ranks the Royals' farm system as ninth in baseball and rising.  

I also liked the $5.7MM spend on outfielders Ankiel, Podsednik, and Anderson.  There's a little bit of upside and not much risk.  Same goes for Moore's many minor league signings.  I was also a fan of the Teahen trade, where Moore swapped a non-tender candidate for two useful pieces.

The Kendall deal is a blemish on a solid offseason, as the Royals could've gotten a similar veteran backstop for less.  It's easy to say Brayan Pena deserved a better look, though maybe the Royals' scouts think Kendall will have the biggest effect on the pitching staff.  The other question mark, which we haven't heard much about, is the loss of prospect Juan Abreu to the Braves.  The righty throws a mid-90s sinker and a decent curveball, and Baseball America says the Royals "reached a deal to re-sign him as a minor league free agent after the season, but a contract snafu allowed him to hit the open market."

Despite Kendall and Abreu, Moore did a nice job overall this winter by focusing on the long-term health of the organization rather than veteran respectability for 2010.

Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Tigers.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The offseason began with stories about the Tigers needing to trim payroll.  Saddled with many bad contracts, GM Dave Dombrowski unloaded two good ones in Granderson and Edwin Jackson.  After the December blockbuster it was confusing to see the Tigers commit $22MM to Valverde and Damon in win-now moves (Valverde can contribute beyond 2010, of course).

However, the Edwin Jackson-Scherzer component might provide the best of both worlds – decent savings with no downgrade in production or talent.  And as Joe Pawlikowski explains in this FanGraphs article, the Tigers will gain a lot of payroll flexibility in 2011 due to Dombrowski's offseason moves as well as expiring extensions.

Still, moving Granderson hurts the Tigers in 2010.  If his 2011 salary was a problem, he could've been traded after this season.  Even optimistic projections (i.e., no injuries) have the Tigers' 2010 offense as below-average.  The rotation looks shaky too – Scherzer and Rick Porcello must pile up innings, while the #4-5 spots are huge question marks.

I understand attempting a run in 2010, since there is star talent in Verlander and Miguel Cabrera and no real way to unload the overpaid veterans.  I just think you keep Granderson as part of that 2010 run and find payroll space for a starting pitching addition.  I'm not sure if Scherzer-Edwin Jackson could've been facilitated without the Yankees' contribution.  But if you make that swap and keep Granderson (as opposed to signing Damon) that's more than $5MM to play with toward a free agent starter.  The extra three to five wins gained from keeping Granderson and adding, say, Joel Pineiro, might've pushed the Tigers into contention.

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Indians.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

In Mark Shapiro's last offseason as GM, the Indians' winter hammered home the fact that they're in full rebuilding mode.  Free agent spending was limited to a mere $2.85MM for Branyan and Redmond, while the Shoppach trade allows the Tribe to go younger and cheaper with their starting catcher.  Otherwise, it was low-risk tinkering with additions like Duncan, Kearns, and Wright.

The Indians' veteran sell-off began last summer and should continue in 2010.  Shapiro will defer to Chris Antonetti on decisions affecting the club beyond this year, as Antonetti will become GM after the season.  The pair will presumably work to move the team's biggest remaining contracts: Travis Hafner, Jake Westbrook, Kerry Wood, and Jhonny Peralta.  The light at the end of the tunnel: ESPN's Keith Law ranks the Indians' farm system fourth in the game.

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the White Sox.

Major League Signings

  • J.J. Putz, RP: one year, $3MM.
  • Mark Kotsay, OF: one year, $1.5MM.
  • Omar Vizquel, IF: one year, $1.375MM.
  • Freddy Garcia, SP: one year, $1MM.  Club option exercised.
  • Ramon Castro, C: one year, $1MM.  Includes $1.2MM club option for '11 with $200K buyout.
  • Andruw Jones, OF: one year, $500K.
  • Total spend: $8.375MM (not included in this number is Matt Thornton's $2.25MM club option, as he would've been arbitration-eligible anyway).

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Mark Teahen, 3B: three years, $14MM.  Bought out two arbitration years and one free agent year.

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The White Sox made a pair of big moves last summer, acquiring Jake Peavy and Alex Rios.  Peavy has three years and $52MM remaining, while Rios has five years and $59.7MM.  While those were huge commitments, GM Kenny Williams was still pretty active this offseason.

Williams managed to spread $8.375MM over six veteran free agents, keeping his risk low.  Williams' riskier moves were the acquisitions of Pierre and Teahen, who will both be given starting jobs.  On the open market, would Pierre have matched the two-year, $8MM commitment taken on by the White Sox?  And why not go year-to-year with Teahen, who hasn't hit like a corner infielder since '06?

Based on CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool, the Sox should score around 780 runs in 2010.  That'd place in the middle of the AL and above last year's output, though the projection is probably optimistic since it doesn't account for injuries.  There is a decent chance Chicago's offense remains below-average.  It would've been worth putting the $2MM used on Jones and Kotsay toward a more productive free agent DH.

Using CHONE projections for earned runs while tweaking their innings estimates, it does seem reasonable to envision the club ranking second in the AL again in starter ERA.  The highest projection among their front four is Gavin Floyd's 4.33.  Bullpen-wise, the addition of Putz and a full season of Tony Pena offsets the losses of Dotel and Carrasco.  Defensively, the Sox will benefit from the subtraction of Dye.

The 2010 White Sox will potentially suffer subpar production at traditionally offensive spots – left field, third base, and designated hitter.  They still look like contenders, but it'll be on the strength of their run prevention.

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

  • John McDonald, SS: two years, $3MM.
  • Alex Gonzalez, SS: one year, $2.75MM.  Includes $2.5MM club option for '11.
  • Kevin Gregg, RP: one year, $2.75MM.  Includes $4.5MM club option for '11 and $8.75MM club option for '11 and '12.
  • John Buck, C: one year, $2MM.
  • Total spend: $10.5MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

Alex Anthopoulos' first winter as Blue Jays GM started off quietly, with an October waiver claim for Henn.  His major moves came a few months later, as he traded Halladay, Taylor, League, and Chavez and netted Drabek, d'Arnaud, Wallace, and Morrow.  His free agent moves were sensible, affordable replacements for Scutaro and Barajas.  There was also a typical smattering of minor league signings and the interesting under-the-radar pickup of Valdez.

Anthopoulos' moves should be judged on two criteria: did he waste significant money trying to stay respectable in a rebuilding year, and did he get enough for Doc?  Gregg was a free agent head-scratcher, but it's hard to quibble with the other $7.75MM spent.  The answer to the latter question appears to be yes.  If we judge the Halladay trade on what we know now, Anthopoulos acquired at least two badly-needed top 50 prospects in Drabek and Wallace.

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