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Kaplan: Cubs “Trying Hard” For Tejada

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Late last night I talked to Dave Kaplan, co-host of WGN’s Sports Central.  Dave gave me a different take on the Miguel Tejada situation than what my source told me.

He said his sources indicate the White Sox are out of the Tejada sweepstakes and that the Red Sox are also backing away now that Manny said he’ll stay.  According to Kaplan, the Cubs are "trying hard."  He also mentioned that there’s "still a long way to go to get a deal done, but if the Cubs will include Felix Pie they could get it done."

FoxSports’s Ken Rosenthal threw his hat into the ring last night, indicating that the Phillies have offered Bobby Abreu for Tejada and would play Tejada at third base.  Of course, Abreu has the power to veto such a trade.

At any rate, more than one source has indicated that the Tejada situation will get resolved today, whether he stays or goes.  I guess we’ll see.

In other news, Dan Connolly of the Chicago Tribune quotes an industry source saying the Cubs are "closing in" on a trade to send Corey Patterson to Baltimore for an unknown minor leaguer.  The minor leaguer is said to not be one of the Orioles’ top five.  Based on Will Lingo’s top ten list for Baseball America, perhaps numbers 6-10 are possible.  I’m just speculating, but the Cubs could really use a guy like Val Majewski if the Orioles would part with him. 

Rangers Snag Vicente Padilla

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Spurned in his attempts to trade for Adam Eaton, new Rangers GM settled for right-handed starter Vicente Padilla to fill in the back end of his rotation.  Padilla was going to be nontendered by the Phillies anyway, so Daniels only had to give up a player to be named later, likely a C level prospect.

At his best, Padilla went 14-11 with a 3.28 ERA for the 2002 Phillies.  That year was marked by low home run and walk rates for Padilla.  He’s still only 28, and 2005 was an injury-plagued year.  Triceps tendonitis and other maladies may have contributed to Padilla’s worst walk rate since 2000.  Ameriquest Field will not be a better pitching environment than Citizens Bank Park; in fact both parks inflate home runs about 20%. 

Padilla will probably post an ERA a bit worse than league average (league average is 4.35) and could provide 200 innings for the Rangers.  At $4MM or so, that’s quite a bargain.  Scott Elarton will be at least that bad and is looking for a three-year deal.  Padilla marks a second solid acquisition by Daniels after his fleecing of Jim Bowden for Brad Wilkerson. 

Zito, Kendall For Floyd, Abreu, Lieberthal?

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A wild rumor has surfaced on the A’s page of MLB.com. According to the site:

"Late Wednesday, another rumor popped up, with the Phillies said to have offered outfielder Bobby Abreu, catcher Mike Lieberthal and pitching prospect Gavin Floyd for lefty Barry Zito and catcher Jason Kendall."

Lieberthal and Kendall had about equal value on the field in 2005.  Comparing contracts, the catcher part of the deal is a big win for Oakland.  Kendall’s on the hook for $19MM through 2007, while Lieberthal is owed $7.5MM for 2006 only.  So the A’s come out a good $11.5MM ahead here, especially considering how bad Kendall could be by 2007.

Zito will be paid $7.9MM in 2006 before he hits free agency.  Here’s Dayn Perry’s thoughts on the lefthander:

"He’s a good starting pitcher who eats innings and is a safe bet to be a tick or two above average in terms of preventing runs. However, Zito’s not an ace. That he might be treated as one on the trade market is part of the reason why Oakland should deal him now."

Abreu is a star, and he will be paid like one for the next two or three years.  He’ll get $28MM through 2007 with a $16MM club option for ’08 and a $2MM buyout.  So the A’s would be on the hook for a ton of money, but they are getting a more valuable player.  Plus, even the A’s would consider signing Abreu as a free agent if he was asking for two years, $30MM.  That’s not a terrible price and the length is reasonable.

Gavin Floyd is kind of a throw-in to make Beane feel better about the salary he’d be taking on.  Floyd had a very ugly 163 innings in 2005, and still hasn’t come near mastering Triple A.  28 solid Major League innings in 2004 probably gave him a reputation he didn’t deserve.       

Thanks to the several emailers who passed this rumor along.

What’s Jason Michaels Worth?

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Jason Michaels just can’t get a break.  He was kicked around the minors long enough to lose the "prospect" label, and then he was branded a part-time player despite out-hitting many regular center fielders.  I touted Michaels in my recent Center Fielders With Potential article, noting his .380 OBP in 808 Major League at-bats.

After Kenny Lofton’s contract expired, Michaels finally figured to be pressed into full-time duty.  Of course, the Phillies decided to import Aaron Rowand instead.  Not a bad trade for the Phils, but now they have a clear surplus of center fielders.  It remains to be seen what kind of bounty Michaels will bring.

Odds are that Pat Gillick waits until most of the other CFs are off the market to make his deal for Michaels.  The Yankees are Pirates are already poking around.  The Cubs could get in on the act if Milton Bradley, Juan Pierre, and Brad Wilkerson fall through the cracks.

The Phillies have asked for Chien-Ming Wang from the Yanks, a very even trade as far as I can tell.  They were rebuffed, and then chuckled when the Pirates offered Mark Redman.  Some pitchers I’d consider comparable to Michaels are Jorge Sosa and Bruce Chen.  While Chen is certainly available, the Phillies don’t want him back for a second tour of duty.

Prior For Abreu: Forget It

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One of the hot rumors at the moment is that the Cubs "didn’t say no" when the Phillies asked for Mark Prior in return for Bobby Abreu.  This Philadelphia Daily News article only fueled the fire.

Hopefully putting the rumor to bed, Bruce Levine quoted Jim Hendry recently on ESPN Radio 1000 as saying Prior for Abreu is not an option.  According to Levine, Carlos Zambrano is off the table as well.

While the Cubs need a shakeup and Abreu is a star, dealing one of their young, cheap ace pitchers isn’t the solution.  Prior had home run and walk problems in 2005.  Add in some injury concerns, and his value may be at an all-time low.  Given his career 10.5 K/9 mark over 613 innings, Prior still has the chance to take back his spot as one of the best pitchers in the league.

Zambrano actually is one of the best pitchers in the NL.  The 24 year old has a 3.26 career ERA and has pitched 200 innings in each of his three full seasons.  Here’s how his overall ranking in the NL for each of the last three seasons, according to Baseball Prospectus’s VORP statistic.

2003 – 11th
2004 – 4th
2005 – 10th

While Abreu should certainly bring a young pitcher in return, Hendry would be overpaying to include Prior or Zambrano.  Given Abreu’s salary and age, Erik Bedard seems like a more appropriate bounty.

Phillies Sign Tom Gordon

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Ken Rosenthal deserves some sort of award for his offseason so far.  He’s scooped pretty much every major trade or signing.  Given that it’s entirely free and has better writers, I’m starting to gravitate towards Fox Sports more and more.

Anyway, the Phillies signed Tom Gordon for three years and $18-21MM.  It ain’t pretty, but they did what they had to do (a.k.a., Plan C).  I’m sure Beer Leaguer will weigh in and let us know how Phillies fans are feeling.

Me, I’m a bit taken aback by a team giving three years to a man who just turned 38.  Save the $20MM, pour it into a superstar.  A guy who plays 160 games and can impact your team by eight wins.  Not 80 innings of an aging closer.

Of course, Flash Gordon is a top-notch reliever.  The Phillies snagged the best one left on the market; why wouldn’t they?  Everyone expected this.  I can’t find anything worrisome in his stats besides his age.  Current Mets hitters have hit .096 off Gordon in 52 at-bats.  For the most part, he’ll be new to the National League hitters he’ll face regularly.  I just can’t get past the three-year commitment, especially knowing the Phillies’ history with overpaid relievers.

Is Bobby Abreu Clutch?

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I noticed some people saying that Bobby Abreu isn’t clutch.  I figured it would make sense to put some numbers behind it to see if it’s just a perception that caught on or if it’s true.

Reader Bill already weighed in with Abreu’s September batting averages in a different post, so I’ll begin by expanding on that to include Abreu’s full AVG/OBP/SLG lines in recent Septembers.

First, his career line:  .303/.411/.512.  Can’t complain about that.

September 2005: .250/.395/.396
September 2004: .326/.483/.500
September 2003: .308/.432/.407
September 2002: .366/.455/.591

OK, it looks like his power numbers were way down this season and in ’03 in September.  But when you’re looking at a sample of 100 at-bats each year, and he has alternated between an excellent and subpar SLG, is it really statistically significant?  I don’t think so.  Plus, with OBPs like that, it’s not as if he tanked.

How about everyone’s favorite Close and Late stats?  Close and Late refers to when the game is in the 7th inning or later and is a one run affair or tied.

Close and Late ’05:  .298/.422/.571
Close and Late ’04:  .255/.445/.412
Close and Late ’03:  .318/.423/.420
Close and Late ’02:  .303/.444/.495

First off, no one can complain that Abreu wasn’t clutch in 2005 overall.  He had a two-year run where his power numbers were down in late game situations, but does that really make him "unclutch?"  Maybe Abreu focused on drawing a walk or hitting a single instead of going for the fences.  His OBPs were all above his career average. 

Finally, let’s see where Abreu stands with runners in scoring position.

RISP 2005:  .303/.444/.500
RISP 2004:  .322/.432/.624
RISP 2003:  .361/.473/.574 
RISP 2002:  .313/.441/.556

He’s consistently destroyed pitchers in every way with runners in scoring position. 

Some analysts don’t believe clutch hitting even exists, and the inconsistencies in this one sample seem to support that.  Regardless, there’s no clear conclusion that Bobby Abreu is "not clutch."         

Further Thoughts On Bobby Abreu

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Amid the Bobby Abreu for Erik Bedard and Jay Gibbons trade rumor yesterday, I made a comment that Abreu was "strangely unpopular in Philadelphia."  While I’ve read this in the papers and seen it on message boards, my comment doesn’t really do justice to Phillies fans.  So I emailed Jason Weitzel of the Beer Leaguer Phillies Blog to get further insight on Abreu.  Below are some excerpts.

Beer Leaguer visitors on Abreu:

Among Internet users who read my site and others, opinion is largely favorable. Most readers who check out blogs are familiar with the innovative ways teams are valuing talent, and few players in baseball are more deeply defined by numbers than Abreu. He’s the complete offensive package. He is easy to justify quantitatively.

Other Phillies fans on Abreu:

Among blue-collar fans that value hard work, grit and shining in big moments, Abreu stumbles. I’ve watched plenty of Abreu over the years and I don’t disagree with this take either. He disappeared in September, while others like J-Roll, Howard and Lofton stepped up and carried the club on their backs. I blame part of that on fatigue, which had reportedly caught up to him, but it’s not unusual for Abreu to disappear in September, or disappear in these types of games.

On Abreu trade rumors:

Word is the Phils have been shopping both Abreu and Burrell as a way to shake some of the longterm commitments. With Thome gone, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pat Gillick backed off. They need starting pitching and relief pitching badly, but dealing Abreu is not how they’re going to get it, at least not in this offseason. Burrell, Rowand and Abreu give them a powerhouse outfield, probably the best in the division, if not the entire NL.

Bobby Abreu For Erik Bedard And Jay Gibbons

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So the John Mabry rumor didn’t carry enough heft for you?  Looking for something juicer?  How about this from a source in the Philadelphia area:

The Phillies are apparently talking to the Orioles about sending them Bobby Abreu for Erik Bedard and Jay Gibbons.

Abreu was the third-best hitting right fielder in the game in 2005, and the second-best in ’04.  He’ll make $13MM in 2006 and is strangely unpopular in Philadelphia.  Abreu is also on the hook for $15MM in 2007 with a $16MM club option for 2008.  The ’08 option has a $2MM buyout attached.  Abreu will be 32 when the ’06 season begins and may be ticketed for the Hall of Fame.

Lefty Erik Bedard has been plagued by injuries, undergoing Tommy John surgery and a sprained knee ligament.  He’s still only 26 and is many years away from free agency.  Bedard improved upon his control somewhat in 2005, and had a nice showing in 24 starts.  He flashed his ace potential before the All-Star break, going 5-1 with a 2.08 ERA.  Interestingly, Bedard has Bob Gibson (circa 1962) buried among his otherwise pedestrian comparables.

Jay Gibbons is a young, powerful right fielder who would be an adequate replacement for Abreu.  He’ll be 29 when the ’06 season starts and made a little less than $3MM last year.  Gibbons slugged .516 in 2005, second only to Vladimir Guerrero among regular right fielders.  While comparable to Abreu in power, Gibbons has far less plate discipline and a worse health record. 

Thanks to Jonathan O.

Don’t Overlook Haigwood In Thome Deal

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At this point, the Jim Thome for Aaron Rowand trade is old news (at least with the speed news travels around the Internet).  ESPN is reporting that Buster Olney broke the trade, although I think Bruce Levine may have had it first. 

One part of the deal that’s getting zero publicity so far is the White Sox’s inclusion of 22 year-old lefty starter Daniel Haigwood.  Once you add it all up, receiving Jim Thome and $22MM for Aaron Rowand, Haigwood, and a third player is nowhere near a good deal for the Sox.  For this article, I want to focus on the potential of the known minor leaguer.

Without further ado, let’s take a closer look at Haigwood.  He missed 2003 after tearing the ACL in his left knee, and his control was shaky in his first season after the surgery in A ball.  Despite the questionable performance in ’04, Haigwood was still ranked the 19th best prospect in his organization by Baseball America.

In July of this year, Haigwood was promoted to Double A Birmingham.  He was absolutely phenomenal in eleven starts there, going 6-1 with a 1.74 ERA.  He was unhittable, surrendering no home runs in 67 innings.  His strikeout rate continued to climb past ten per nine innings.

The knock on Haigwood is his control – he still walks four men per nine innings.  He’s got an excellent curve ball, a decent two-seamer, and a developing change-up.  Did I mention he’s left-handed? 

If Haigwood refines his control a bit, it’s reasonable to project him as a 3rd starter in the big leagues in 2007.  Remember the name, because the Phillies acquired more than a run-of-the-mill throw-in in the Thome deal.   

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