The defending American League champions provided a handful of discouraging injury updates at the first day of Spring Training. In addition to revealing that Anthony Santander will miss the majority of the season rehabbing shoulder surgery, they announced a couple bits of news on the pitching side.
Shane Bieber will begin the season on the 15-day injured list, manager John Schneider told reporters (links via Mitch Bannon of The Athletic and Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). The Jays are slow-playing his buildup after he dealt with forearm fatigue in the playoffs and over the offseason. There’s worse news for depth starter Bowden Francis, as Schneider said he’s headed for Tommy John surgery.
Schneider framed the Bieber situation mostly as an abundance of caution. It was reported around the Winter Meetings that the righty had dealt with late-season forearm fatigue. That explained what had seemed a very curious decision to exercise a $16MM player option rather than pursuing a multi-year contract.
Bieber missed most of the 2023-24 seasons rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He felt a bit of elbow soreness last summer but was otherwise healthy enough to pitch the stretch run and throughout the playoffs. Bieber combined for 59 innings between the regular season and postseason. The Jays declined to provide any kind of timetable for his season debut, though both Schneider and GM Ross Atkins suggested they expect him to get plenty of work this season. Bieber has been throwing off flat ground up to 90 feet.
That answers any questions about whether the Jays had “too much” starting pitching to begin the season. José Berríos was reportedly displeased with being pushed out of the projected playoff rotation last year. He might have been sixth on the depth chart at full strength, but he’s now locked into the Opening Day rotation (assuming he gets through camp healthy himself). The Jays have a projected starting five of Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Cody Ponce and Berríos.
Losing Francis subtracts one of their depth arms. The 29-year-old righty took the ball 14 times last year, though he struggled to a 6.05 ERA before going down with a shoulder impingement in the middle of June. He spent the second half of the season on the 60-day injured list. He’ll land back on the IL whenever the Jays need to open a 40-man roster spot and spend the rest of the year there. Francis will be paid around the MLB minimum rate but seems likely to lose his roster spot at the end of the season when teams need to reinstate players from the IL.
Toronto is also without righty Jake Bloss, who is working back from his own elbow procedure (performed last May). Lefty Eric Lauer projects for a long relief role if everyone’s healthy but would be the obvious choice to step into the rotation if anyone else goes down before Opening Day. The other pitchers on the 40-man roster are light on big league experience, meaning one more injury could leave them looking quite thin.
There are a handful of mid-rotation caliber starters still unsigned — old friends Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer among the group. The Jays have pushed their luxury tax payroll estimate north of $310MM, easily a franchise record. They kicked the tires on Framber Valdez as he lingered on the open market into February, so it seems there’s still a chance of another move if they want to add some stability to the back end.

Smart….and expected.
Toronto caught lightning in a bottle last season. Rotation is solid but that lineup is suspect. Santander needed to make up for that Bichette production. They are going to finish 4th in that division
NY
Balt
Boston
Tor
Balt’s rotation is the one with issues. Cease, Gausman, Yesavage, Cody Ponce are a good #4. They have Jose Berrios and Eric Laur as options as well. Bieber and Bloss will provide help midway through the season. The lineup is still solid. New York is going to be trouble.
lol. You’re not wrong. Toronto less these two guys still has a better and deeper rotation than Baltimore.
Wow….you don’t think the Jays have similar issues also..you’re counting on Yesavage who has a total of 14 innings of regular season ball on his resume (and let’s not talk about the playoffs…that’s in the past) and who knows what you’ll get from him across 30+ starts, Cease who hasn’t exactly lit up with league and Ponce with his 5+ ERA…..as 3/5ths of this “impressive” staff……the pot shouldn’t be calling the kettle black….
Yesavage is filthy but his innings will likely be capped, maybe 130 innings?. What is that… 24 starts or so? Jays better reunite with Bassitt, or at some point in the season they will be signing trash like Turnbull or Urena to spot start
Yesavage likely will throw 160-170 innings after throwing 139 last season. As long as he stays healthy, he should be good for about 30 starts.
No, I don’t.
Come on….he was “filthy” in 14 innings of regular season and then the playoffs….that in itself doesn’t insure he shows up this season and does the same….the playoffs always anoint somebody who you never thought was a star as a star but once you get back to the regular season the star disappears…..not saying he might not be good, but your statement of “he’s filthy” is akin to counting on a pitcher coming back from TJ surgery and being not only the same guy he was but actually better…..might not happen is all…
139 innings last year?….he threw 1`4 innings in 2025 regular season….
You forgot IMO.
Boston 95
NYY 92
Baltimore 86
Toronto 73
Tampa 69
Their rotation is suspect. Gausman is above average but I don’t think there is anyone else in the rotation they can say the same about. Gausman may match up against Ranger but he’s probably the only one. No one matches up with Garrett. Or Cole when he comes back.
I don’t think I can take your prediction seriously if you believe Cease is below average.
His OPS+ was literally below league average last year and 2 out of the last 3 years. So yeah, he’s been below average more than he’s been above it.
this is what I was saying about Blue Jays fans in a separate post, every guy they sign as a star, even if he’s not anymore. Their front office never makes mistakes.
You’re reading too many press clippings about Cease…..bit 2022 any longer and he;s had 1 decent year out of the last 3…the bottom line is does the team win when he pitches….if you can’t win at Petco with the Padres behind you…..enough said….
Thanks for the input rocky. I’m sure there was a deep dive behind that, just like the rest of your rambles
Cease’s “stuff” is fantastic and he’s a very good pitcher *when* he is able to properly harness it. The issue is he does not consistently do so.
Comparing among qualified starters his results on things like walk rate, hard hit rate, home run rate, barrel rate, WHIP, SLG% against, OPS against – Cease is average to mediocre on all these metrics vs. his peers.
And as a guy who profiles as a mostly line drive and fly ball pitcher, good luck in the AL East. By park factors you’ve got a very strong HR park and two above average HR parks (NYY, BAL, TOR), an extreme doubles park (BOS), and a minor league park (TBR). This division eats mistake pitches alive and as good as Cease often is, he also tends to leave plenty of mistakes out there.
I expect he will generally be closer to his 2023 and 2025 self in Toronto than the ’22 or ’24 versions.
Appears someone didn’t know that in addition to ‘above average’ there are actually TWO alternatives, one being average, like Dylan Cease.
Cease is the very definition of mediocrity. 1.1 bWAR, a 4.55 ERA, 8-12 record. Cease is to the Toronto rotation what Santander was to their offence – the belief that by throwing far more money at a guy than he is worth, he will somehow become a star. Cease is a guy they paid over 200M to, including 30M for his ages 36 and 37 season years from now, who matches up against Sonny Gray – not against Crochet or Ranger. But misrepresent my post, that will surely make him. better.
Well said, the back end of that contract is going to look hideous. Heck, as I’ve been saying every time it comes up, I’m not yet convinced the front end won’t look hideous too!
Oh, and this coming from the baseball expert…self anointed and all…..
Like I said, but you must get your comment proofed by JDGOAT the baseball expert on this site….
Last three seasons:
Suarez fWAR: 9.8
Cole: 7.1 (yes I know he’s the biggest talent here but he’s hurt and they’re still paying for production)
Gausman: 12.4 (6th among active pitchers)
Cease: 11.7 (9th among active pitchers)
I don’t think the rotation is suspect. They have two of the top ten arms in terms of long-term production. That’s an incredible rarity. It also doesn’t hurt that the Jays had the best defense in baseball last season and it only stands to get better with the subtraction of Bo and Santander.
Who cares about fWAR. At this level it’s results that matter, not a glorified k/bb stat that’s primarily used to judge minor league pitchers. bWAR measures what you do. fWAR pretends it doesn’t matter if you give up a double off the wall, that’s a non-event, but if you record the out with a foul pop-up that’s what’s significant. Hard to be more meaningless.
If Cease continues to put up barely replacement-level bWAR, an 8-12 record and a 4.55 ERA on his mega-deal, for 30M per, Toronto fans are going to be more than disappointed. They won’t be cheering his fWAR.
Results that matter, you mean the team that got to 1 out of the World Series. Added a couple solid pieces while losing injury plagued Bo and mad max along with Bassitt who could still come back. This isnt the final form of this team either but funny to see someone say don’t look at the stats look at results while pointing to the team that has good stats and good results and saying their gonna be bad
Okay, Yankee fan !!
Pretty well every professional ball projecting website has Boston with 88,5 wins , Toronto with 88.3 wins…
Yankees (with their injured rotation) at 85.3 wins, Baltimore with 81.5 wins, and Tampa at 78.3 wins
It’s a long season – everyone starts at zero wins… Boston has still not replaced Bergman’s defense, his leadership , nor his bat… The Yanjs are without two of their very best pitchers , one due back in mid to late May, the other the end of June or possibly the middle of July…
Last season, the Jays started with a losing record by mid May , but then got hot…
We’ll see!!!
Jays 73 wins I want what he’s drinkin’
I don’t. Probably something scary.
Innings and taking the ball every fifth day are big parts of starting that seem to get forgotten in the dive and five and call it a great day mentality. The last few years the Jays really seem to target guys that pitch a lot and stay on the field.
Yes and their staff is still fairly deep even without Biebs to start the season. Francis was more like an 8th starter as I doubt anyone puts him ahead of Berrios or Lauer.
There are no alarm bells going off for any Jays fans yet.
That prediction of the Jays winning 73 is literally if everything on the team self destructs. They are realistically a 90 to 100 win ball club as it stands
BOS 93
NYY/TOR 91
BAL 85
TAM 75
top 3 make the postseason. BAL misses out by 1-2 games/tiebreaker with TEX or ATH.
I’d bet money Jays don’t get 90 wins lol. They signed some guys but Bo is gone, Santander is gone for basically the year, bassitt is gone, you can’t assume Springer will be great again, the new 3B is a wildcard, and your other playing time will go to below average bats like Lukes, Schneider, clement, Giminez and straw. They got hot and played well beyond expectations last year but I’m not sure we can realistically expect that again.
Horrible take
Boston
Baltimore
Toronto
New York
Tampa Bay
Toronto 95
Boston 90
NY 86
Baltimore 83
TB 70
Lineup was one of the most balanced in baseball last season. Still pretty much the same pieces so I could be wrong but I doubt it was lightning in a bottle.
I agree someone does need to step up for the production they will miss from Bo but either way there is little chance they drop all the way down to 4th in the division. Especially behind the Orioles or Sox.
Yankees….96
Baltimore…85
Boston…83
Toronto…81
Tampa Bay…76
Detroit…91
Kansas City…84
Cleveland…81
White Sox…65
Minnesota…63
Seattle…98
Texas…86
Houston…81
Athletics…72
Angels…68
Is the same line up. Okamoto will be replacing Bo’s production
Cease is adding to the rotation as well as is Ponce.
They’re still in a good shape !!
The Rays will not finish in the cellar. Book it.
This is not good.
Miguel Rojas sent this team off the rails.
Division still looks stacked, I feel like Boston is gonna be feast or famine
Blue Jays got bit by the injury bug early
This was expected when he opted into the player option instead of going to market . As a Toronto fan the narrative about a trade deadline pick up wanting to keep the super friends together instead of getting paid was fun…. But not realistic .
It’s hilarious that everyone thought he just loved Toronto so much that he was willing to forego a multi year deal just to stay with Toronto one more year haha dummies
Bieber’s doctor: “We may have a problem, but before we get to that you need to pick up that player option TODAY.”
I remember back in November Bluejay fans were telling me Beibs picked up the option because he loved the Blue Jays and he loved what was going on there lol. I was saying nope he’s hurt. Bluejay fans were saying nope he loves it here. Lol.
@Shadowpartner
Ya, when you look at the facts, it’s pretty obvious that he was hurt. If he declined the option, a team would have to offer him 12M to be paid the same as him picking up the option.
Funny I’m a die hard Jays fan and knew something was up for him not to cash in. Just because you say Jays fans were saying something doesn’t mean they were saying it en masse.
Gomer, I didn’t mean every single last one of you. It really wasn’t hard to figure out and a lot of you did. I was surprised to see how many thought that he actually loved it there that much though.
Imo Toronto played above their actual talent level. But also huge bounce back years from kirk, springer. Their payroll at over $280 million was 5th highest in mlb btw
@Asfan0780
When they had Giminez batting cleanup at the beginning of the season you bet there was a lot of pixie dust being sprinkled on them.
Bieber fever will be late in Canada this season.
Top 5 at C, 1B and top 10 rotation will keep em afloat
I could argue Top 3 but then my bias is showing.
Everybody said he picked up that option because he knew he was dominated he wouldn’t have a market, so the $16M in guaranteed money is better than whatever he might have received.
He was likely looking at like 2 years/$17M at best aka 1 year/$2M to rehab and maybe $15M on a bounce back extra year.
rillionaireTeamOperator
Everybody said he picked up that option because he knew he was dominated he wouldn’t have a market,
====================
My guess is that he didn’t want to take a mandatory physical with another team.
Maybe Lauer will get the time of day again. He was 9-2 picking up for Scherzer last year so I can see him helping out Bieber. Berrios was 9-5.
It’s funny we were just fine without Santander last year too. We have lots of OF’s gives them a chance at innings to break through.
Straw, Loperfido, Lukes, Schneider, Barger, Varsho in OF, Springer was RF probably all DH this year, Okamoto 3B/LF. I don’t see an issue other than the luls. Other INFs are enough
“Glue Jays” are back
If Lukes is used more in RF with Barger, then we can finally see more of Loperfido, Schneider in LF. Lukes and Straw can play any OF position. That’s pretty good overlap since we like to swap out players a lot. Manager saying Okamoto will primarily be 3B but can see a swap of Barger to 3B, Okamoto to LF, Lukes or Straw to RF. We’re not out of the shifts and plays we like to do. I’m just very happy we didn’t trade anyone away
opens the door for a Bassitt return. Could be a starting pitcher then move to relief
Okamoto has about 140 innings in left since 2020. He’s not an OF.
Okamoto is a talented outfielder – HE IS AN OUTFIELDER!! But, he’ll be playing 3B…
Our versatility blows away every other team in the Eastern Division…
We’ll sign Scherzer soon to fill-in the gaps in the rotation…at least before the season starts…
We also have Ricky Tiedeman for middle relief, as a lefty…
If you’re going to jump off the Toronto Titanic, do it now and don’t come back!!!
@Floridacoach 2
140 innings across 5 years is an indicator of the coach wanting you in the game for your bat. 2 of those 5 years he didn’t get an inning in the OF.
If he is the talented OF you claim, why didn’t he play there more often?
Floridacoach I didn’t think there were Canadians in Florida. I heard you were boycotting the US and are all now stranded in Cuba!
Same here. Glad they held most of last year’s pieces. Would sure love to get that Santander contract outta town but that will never happen.
I too would like to see more of what Loperfido can provide. I think they have a pretty good player in him just need more of a look
Amen brother. They are a very deep team. Anyone that thinks otherwise doesn’t follow the team nor the stats.
Strong pitching, solid D and a balanced offense will take a team far
Hate to see another kid go through Tommy John. They need to throw all the radar guns in the trash, or at least as at not put them on display anymore. I’ve seen too many kids throw a pitch then look at the scoreboard to see the reading.
@This one belongs to the Reds
There is no correlation from looking behind you and suffering an arm injury 😁😁
So…any chance Bichette’s knee will put him on the Met’s IL this year?
It’s hilarious that everyone thought he just loved Toronto so much that he was willing to forego a multi year deal just to stay with Toronto one more year haha dummies
Post this one more time because the third time is the charm as they say…
Not sure the last two words are hitting like you want them to tbh
It’s hilarious that everyone thought he just loved Toronto so much that he was willing to forego a multi year deal just to stay with Toronto one more year haha dummies
Yikes, bad day at the Toronto camp.
Santander = Rendon?
Toronto can still win this division but the Yankees will have something to say about it.
If your job makes you do something that injures you to the point where you can’t work, I’m sure you’ll happily donate your pay back to your employer and refuse compensation. You wouldn’t ask your team to carry you when you’re useless.
Player option = “I’ll take your $16M and let you know if and when I feel like pitching”.
Losing santander means nothing as they dint have him last year.
Relying on everyone to overachieve again minus bo is an issue.
If okamoto comes as advertised, theyll be ok. IF!
Barger and varsho are going to need to continue to get better and have big years as well. Imo
Go jays go
The Jays will still thrive as Kaz will replace Bo’s production and Cease will be adding to depth to that rotation.
As bad as the Tyler O’Neill contract is the Orioles have to be happy to have him instead of Santander.
Just quit now Jays, Rays,O’s,& pinstripid turds… The Sox are going to take the east. And the ring‼️💯