Rowand For 5/50?
Buster Olney believes that Aaron Rowand will be the most popular free agent center fielder this winter, more so than Andruw Jones or Torii Hunter. Rowand will be more affordable at $10-12MM annually over five years. Beyond his above average offense and defense, he brings an intangible bonus as a good clubhouse guy. The 30 year-old hit .309/.374/.515 in 612 ABs this year. He set career bests in games played (161) and OBP.
Olney’s list of teams that may pursue a center fielder this winter: the Cubs, White Sox, Padres, Cardinals, Braves, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners, Pirates, and Mets. Rowand plans on testing the market, so the Phillies won’t get any kind of discount if they retain him.
To me, a free agent CF doesn’t really fit for the Cards or Mariners. As for the Mets, they should probably just exercise Moises Alou‘s option and have a good fourth outfielder on hand.
Update on Garland: Phillies Scouting
We said a few weeks back that the White Sox May Shop Jon Garland and that Garland knows it. The White Sox are seeking 2 relievers. As Tim noted, the Red Sox, Rockies, Braves, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, and Phillies have all shown interest. Well, it starts here: Paul Hagen recently caught wind of the Phillies scouting the tall right hander during his complete game shutout of the Royals last Wednesday.
Garland is due $12MM in the final year of his contract. The Phillies will be waving goodbye to Jon Lieber and flop Freddy Garcia, opening up $17MM and the (incredible) need for a quality starter in a rotation comprised of Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, Adam Eaton, and the indefatigable Jamie Moyer.
As Tim noted, the ChiSox tried to shop him last offseason to the Astros, but the deal unraveled just before the scheduled press conference. The bad news for GM Kenny Williams: Garland went on to make ’07 his worst season in recent memory going 9-13 with a 4.23 ERA. Good news for Kenny Williams: The man finished strong, flat out dominating in September by posting a 1.38 ERA over 39.1 IP, and going over 200 Innings for the 4th straight year.
Still, judging from your comments, MLBTR readers aren’t too high on Mr. Garland. Are the Phillies?
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Posted by: Nat Boyle
Ed Wade: Houston’s New Rocket Man
"Houston, you have a problem" was probably the initial reaction anyone who follows the Phillies, or baseball for that matter, had when they heard that the Houston Astros had hired Ed Wade to be their new general manager.
Wade was fired from that same post in Philadelphia two years ago after failing to compose a team to reach the playoffs — and brutally suffering for it publicly — during his eight year tenure in town (1997-2005).
Even a few years out from Wade, the Phillies’ last October appearance dates back to the mullets and beards of 1993.
But that’s another story. The issue at hand is whether or not Wade is a good hire for the Astros. That’s hard to say unless you were one of the lucky fans chosen at random to sit in on the interview process, but it is possible to judge Wade’s history with Philadelphia and then consider if his strengths and weaknesses are suitable to the Astros’ needs.
If you scan the field at the start of a Phillies home game, you’ll see that six of the starting "everyday eight" were acquired under Wade’s watch, and they make up the most potent lineup in the National League
- Pat Burrell was drafted, developed, and, for better or worse, signed to a long-term contract.
- Shane Victorino was acquired in the Rule 5 draft.
- Jimmy Rollins, a strong contender for this year’s MVP award was developed and signed to a bargain of a long term contract.
- Another MVP candidate and the best second baseman in baseball, Chase Utley, was drafted and developed under Wade and signed to a long term contract under Wade’s successor, Pat Gillick.
- First baseman Ryan Howard was drafted and developed well enough under Wade to win a Rookie of the Year award and then an MVP award in the two years since Wade left.
- Rookie starting catcher Carlos Ruiz was signed by Wade as a 19-year old out of Panama.
Wade also drafted the Phillies’ three best pitchers: Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, and Brett Myers, and at one time, traded away their worst, Adam Eaton, only for him to be re-acquired under Gillick’s regime. Let’s not forget, before he was general manager, Wade campaigned hard within the Phillies to trade for Bobby Abreu before anyone knew who he was (Kevin Stocker was the "bait" that eventually landed him). That’s quite a nucleus, no doubt about it. [An aside: Critics will point out that one of Wade’s assistant GM’s, Mike Arbuckle, who’s still an assistant in Philadelphia, was responsible for acquiring that nucleus, not Wade. That might be true, but consider these two points: even if Arbuckle did acquire all of that talent, Wade was smart enough to let him do it, and second, when general manager vacancies arise, Arbuckle is almost never a name that comes up, at least not publicly.]
After that nucleus however, the bullet points in Wade’s resume are a little harder to come by. In ballyhooed off-season moves, Wade acquired Jim Thome, Billy Wagner, David Bell, Eric Milton, Kevin Millwood and Andy Ashby, none of whom were able to get the nucleus over the hump and into the playoffs. Prior to that he got very little in return for Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen, both players having made it clear they wanted out of Philadelphia. The best piece from both of those deals, Placido Polanco [apologies to all of you who still think that some day Vicente Padilla is going to finally "get it"], was eventually dealt to the Detroit Tigers, where he’s flourished, for Ugueth Urbina (currently playing as number 283948 in the Venezuelan Penal League) as a rental in 2005.
Other water that flowed under Wade’s bridge were several trades where the Phillies gave up several forgettable minor leaguers (to name a few: Taylor Bucholz, Eaton, Elizardo Ramirez) for several forgettable relievers (to name a few: Todd Jones, Terry Adams, Mike Timlin) and his penchant for handing out no-trade clauses in contracts, an obstacle Gillick has had to deal with on numerous occasions.
The trend is clear: Wade was able to develop a very fine nucleus, one that is scoring runs for the Phillies in bunches, but was unable to add the necessary supporting pieces, even after he was given an adequate budget to do so in the later years of his tenure.
In other words, Houston, he’s shown he can get you to the launch pad, but don’t hope for the moon.
Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff ("Phillies, Eagles, golf, and other matters of great importance…") and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere"..
Ed Wade Hired As Astros GM
Jayson Stark confirms it: Ed Wade is the new Astros GM. Wade came in for his second interview today.
The Phillies promoted Wade to GM in December of 1997, and fired him in October of 2005 after the team failed to reach the playoffs during that span.
An attempt to compile some of Wade’s bigger moves (I’ve yet to form an opinion on his overall performance):
- 12-23-97: Traded Mickey Morandini to Cubs for Doug Glanville
- Failed to sign J.D. Drew; drafted Pat Burrell first overall in 1998
- 11-19-98: Traded Ricky Bottalico and Garrett Stephenson to Cardinals for Ron Gant, Jeff Brantley, and Cliff Politte
- 11-13-98: Traded Jerry Spradlin for Chad Ogea
- 5-5-99: Traded Paul Spoljaric to Blue Jays for Robert Person
- Drafted Brett Myers 12th overall in 1999
- 11-10-99: Traded Steve Montgomery, Carlton Loewer, and Adam Eaton to Padres for Andy Ashby
- 12-7-99: Signed Mike Jackson to be closer (spent entire year on DL)
- 7-12-00: Traded Ashby to Braves for Jimmy Osting and Bruce Chen
- Drafted Chase Utley 15th overall in 2000
- 7-26-00: Traded Curt Schilling to Diamondbacks for Omar Daal, Nelson Figueroa, Travis Lee, and Vicente Padilla
- 7-29-00: Traded Gant to Angels for Kent Bottenfield
- Drafted Gavin Floyd 4th overall in 2001
- Fired Terry Francona, hired Larry Bowa
- 2000: Signed Ricky Bottalico, Rheal Cormier, and Jose Mesa
- 1-29-01: Signed Paul Byrd
- 6-5-01: Traded Byrd to Royals for Jose Santiago
- Drafted Ryan Howard in 5th round in 2001
- 7-27-01: Traded Chen for Dennis Cook and Turk Wendell
- Signed Terry Adams
- 7-29-02: Traded Scott Rolen for Bud Smith, Mike Timlin, and Placido Polanco
- Drafted Cole Hamels 17th overall in 2002
- 2-20:02: Signed Bobby Abreu to five-year, $64MM extension
- 11-24-02: Signed David Bell to a four-year, $17MM contract
- 12-3-02: Signed Jim Thome to a six-year, $85MM contract in December 2002
- 12-20-02: Traded Johnny Estrada to Braves for Kevin Millwood
- 2-3-03: Signed Pat Burrell to a six-year, $50MM contract in February 2003
- 11-3-03: Traded Brandon Duckworth, Taylor Buchholz, and Ezequiel Astacio to Astros for Billy Wagner
- 12-3-03: Traded Carlos Silva, Nick Punto, and a PTBNL to Twins for Eric Milton
- 12-9-03: Signed Tim Worrell in December 2003
- Drafted Greg Golson 21st overall in 2004
- 8-9-04: Traded Elizardo Ramirez, Javon Moran and Joe Wilson for Cory Lidle
- 12-3-04: Traded Felix Rodriguez to Yankees for Kenny Lofton
- 12-8-04: Signed Jon Lieber to a three-year, $21MM contract in December of 2004
- 12-13-04: Selected Shane Victorino from Dodgers in Rule V draft
- 5-14-05: Traded Marlon Byrd to Nationals for Endy Chavez
- 6-8-05: Traded Placido Polanco to Tigers for Ugueth Urbina and Ramon Martinez
- 6-13-05: Signed Jimmy Rollins to a five-year, $40MM extension in June 2005
Willis Wouldn’t Mind Playing In Philly
Not exactly a rumor, but worth a mention. This type of thing is common when teams meet up for a series. We saw it with Aaron Rowand when the White Sox played the Phillies this year.
Though the Phillies tattooed Dontrelle Willis Sunday night, Willis’s friend Jimmy Rollins and teammate Brett Myers were discussing how they’d love to see him in a Phillies uniform. Rollins suggested that Willis may be unmotivated in Florida. He also added that he’s asked Dontrelle and confirmed that the pitcher would not mind playing for Philadelphia. Of course, Willis doesn’t have any say in it.
I’ve heard estimates anywhere from $7-9MM for Willis’s arbitration reward this winter. He made $6.45MM in ’07. The Fish had a $30MM payroll on Opening Day of this year, and will owe Miguel Cabrera several million more in 2008. So Willis should account for 20-25% of the payroll.
Will the Marlins pay up for one more year and hope Willis rebuilds his value? Or will they opt to save the money now and trade him this winter? The latter scenario seems more likely. Even with his value at an all-time low it seems the Marlins could get one solid young player for Willis. I speculated recently that there was a tiny chance the Marlins simply non-tender him…but even my assigned 1 in 100 odds on that seem high.
Marlins GM Larry Beinfest can get one guy. Michael Bourn would be a fine target. Jim Salisbury suggests that the Marlins are fond of Shane Victorino. The Phillies are trying to settle their outfield situation for 2008; as you know, Aaron Rowand is a free agent this winter. Salisbury notes that the Phils might be gunshy about acquiring Willis given the whispers of possible health issues. They can’t have another Freddy Garcia trade.
Stark’s Latest: Clemens, Pettitte, Lowell
Jayson Stark has a new Rumblings and Grumblings column up at ESPN. Let’s discuss.
- Most folks think Roger Clemens will retire after the season. The "will he, won’t he" storyline is one I won’t mind avoiding this winter. Remember, back in February Roger said he told his son it was "80-20 that I wasn’t going to play." He also said, "I’m not leaving anybody hanging. I don’t want to play." Good riddance.
- Andy Pettitte has a $16MM player option for 2008. This is similar to an out clause, where it’s win-win for the player. He only exercises it if he couldn’t get it on the open market. Pettitte’s the best free agent starting pitcher if he opts out. Stark seems to think he’d decline the option but then just re-up with the Yankees for more money and/or years.
- Word is that Mike Lowell would enjoy playing for the Phillies if the Red Sox don’t re-sign him. Gordon Edes isn’t sure if the Red Sox would offer him three years, and believes another team might go four. A four-year deal would cover his age 34-37 seasons…probably a bad move. Then again, what do I know? I thought he was toast after 2005.
Renck’s Latest Rockie Rumors
Rockies beat reporter Troy E. Renck had the scoop on all kinds of Rockie rumors yesterday; I’m just now getting to it. Let’s look at some highlights from his column.
- Renck suggests the Rox take a look at Bob Wickman. Meanwhile, the Phillies actually inquired but aren’t expected to work out a deal. The Indians will take a pass.
- Renck mentions that the Rockies have "long coveted" catcher Paul Lo Duca. Lo Duca should be there for the signing this winter.
- The Rockies will have around $45MM tied up in Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe, Brian Fuentes, and Aaron Cook for 2008. Even if the team raises its $55MM payroll, someone has to go. By the way, locking up Holliday long-term will cost a king’s ransom. He’s a Scott Boras client.
- Given the burden of Todd Helton‘s contract and his no-trade clause, he may be immovable. But a .400 OBP is still valuable any way you slice it, so perhaps the Red Sox or Angels will get re-engaged. Renck believes Atkins and Fuentes are the main trading chips to clear payroll though. The Angels and Twins could still use Atkins while the Phils, Red Sox, and Yankees have inquired on Fuentes in the past. Atkins for a Kevin Slowey or Scott Baker just makes too much sense.
Phillies Interested In Carlos Silva
Carlos Silva came up through the Phillies’ farm system, switching to relief for his big league debut. He remained an innings-eating reliever throughout his Phillies tenure, though his hittable, low strikeout style was not suited to the pen.
In December of ’03 the Phils sent Silva and Nick Punto over to the Twins for Eric Milton. The following season he racked up 14 wins as a starter. His pinpoint control has made him a very credible back-rotation guy, aside from a rough ’06.
Joining Silva in the under-30 starting pitcher free agent class will be Jason Jennings, Joe Kennedy, Byung-Hyun Kim, Kyle Lohse, and Joel Pineiro. Silva’s the most reliable choice, and he might be able to snag a four-year pact given the weak market. He’s having a well-timed fine year with a 4.10 ERA in 164.2 innings.
The Phillies have been looking to reacquire Silva for some time now; I believe they had interest last winter after the Twins exercised his $4MM option. Now La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes of Philadelphia’s continued interest. The Phils inquired before the July 31 deadline, and would still like to acquire Silva. Neal believes he has not yet been placed on waivers and would not clear them. It seems that Terry Ryan missed his chance to extract strong trade value for Silva, though he may have fielded offers and found two draft picks preferable.
I can’t see Silva getting to the Phillies without the Braves, Dodgers, Rockies, Tigers, and Mariners first putting in a claim.
Rowand Linked To Nationals?
This is a tenuous connection, but I’ll take what I can get. MLB.com’s Bill Ladson notes that Aaron Rowand seems intrigued by the Nationals’ bright future and center field opening. It’s possible the Nats could be in the mix for Rowand this winter. It could just be a respectability type signing, which I think is what they were trying to accomplish with Dmitri Young and Ron Belliard.
When the White Sox were last in Philadelphia, speculation ran rampant that Rowand could come back to Chicago. He admitted to having a soft spot for the team he came up with. If the Sox are serious about improving center field in ’08, the main candidates seem to be Rowand, Torii Hunter, and Mike Cameron.
Keep in mind that the Phillies could definitely re-sign Rowand. He’s a fan favorite and would be a solid sign at the Eric Byrnes price (three years, $30MM). However, there have been no extension talks yet.
Rosenthal’s Latest Video: Pudge, Bedard, Burrell
Ken Rosenthal has a new video up; check it out. Some highlights:
- Back in April, I made predictions of whether various club options will be exercised for 2008. My opinion on many of the option decisions has changed since then. One example is Ivan Rodriguez. At the time I said his defense and power would justify the $10MM difference between his $13MM option and $3MM buyout. Currently, Pudge is hitting for his usual decent average but has drawn just five walks in 379 plate appearances. Rosenthal believes the Tigers might opt for the buyout, especially if Rodriguez tails off as the season wears on. Maybe so, but at effectively one year, $10MM, they might still go for it. The other options are limited.
- The Orioles’ #1 priority for the offseason is to sign ace Erik Bedard to a long-term contract extension. But if the two parties aren’t in the same ballpark, they could exact a king’s ransom in a trade. As I said before, Bedard could be a $20MM+ pitcher if he stays on course through the 2009 season.
- Pat Burrell cleared waivers, but the Phillies have no intention of trading him given the way he’s been hitting. Burrell has an absurd .392/.519/.725 line since July 1. No one has been better in OBP over that time period, and only Hanley Ramirez has a better SLG. Anyway, I’ve updated the list of players who have cleared waivers.