Carlos Zambrano

Phil Rogers has an idea – if the Cubs can’t come to an agreement with Carlos Zambrano, they should trade him.  And sooner rather than later.  Personally, I don’t buy into the Bobby Abreu theory – that the Phils were inspired to play better because they traded him for peanuts.  He’d look mighty fine in the Phillies’ lineup this year, and I think Ryan Howard would’ve had the same insane second half with or without him.  Then again, I wasn’t in the Phillies’ clubhouse last summer so who knows.  But I digress.

Rogers thinks Z will get his five or six-year deal from the Cubs.  But he speculates on several possible return packages.  Ervin Santana, Wood/Aybar, and Adenhart/Mathis from the Angels.  Pavano and Sanchez/Clippard from New York.  Pelfrey/Humber, Heilman, and Martinez/Gomez from the Mets.

Given the deals for Jason Jennings and Adam Eaton, Zambrano would certainly command one top-flight young pitcher (Chris Young, Jason Hirsh).  He would also require a second promising but imperfect young position player (Adrian Gonzalez, Willy Taveras).  Then there’d be at least one more wild card piece (Akinori Otsuka, Taylor Buchholz).

So a Santana/Aybar/Mathis package seems fair.  I’m sure some other clubs could assemble something comparable.  In the Mets’ case, Rogers’ selection of players seems too much.  Then again, one season of Zambrano is clearly superior to one of Jennings or Eaton. 

According to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, Carlos Zambrano announced yesterday that he’s close to signing a five-year contract with the Cubs.  However, Sullivan’s source says the two sides still have a long way to go and Zambrano has yet to receive a concrete offer.

Based on comments from Zambrano and Cubs GM Jim Hendry, the two parties seem to agree on a five-year length.  Capping at five instead of six or seven years is a huge win for the Cubs, even if they go up to $17MM annually.  Most likely, the sides will settle around five years and $80MM.  That’d be a significant loyalty discount for the Cubs.  On the other hand, Zambrano’s deal would be on par with those of Roy Oswalt and Chris Carpenter. 

According to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, Carlos Zambrano announced yesterday that he’s close to signing a five-year contract with the Cubs.  However, Sullivan’s source says the two sides still have a long way to go and Zambrano has yet to receive a concrete offer.

Based on comments from Zambrano and Cubs GM Jim Hendry, the two parties seem to agree on a five-year length.  Capping at five instead of six or seven years is a huge win for the Cubs, even if they go up to $17MM annually.  Most likely, the sides will settle around five years and $80MM.  That’d be a significant loyalty discount for the Cubs.  On the other hand, Zambrano’s deal would be on par with those of Roy Oswalt and Chris Carpenter. 

In a television interview yesterday, Carlos Zambrano drew a line in the sand.  He’s leaving the Cubs if he doesn’t have a contract extension before the season begins.  He even referred to himself in the third person.  Zambrano expects to be compensated like Barry Zito. 

A review of the Zito contract: seven years, $126MM guaranteed with a full no-trade clause.  Zito’s deal also includes an eighth year option that could be reached based on innings pitched, as well as bonuses for winning the Cy Young.  Zambrano is a full three years younger than Zito.  And fair or not, pitching in the NL has kept his raw ERAs at 3.41 or less in each of his four full seasons.  While that may not make Zambrano the better pitcher, he’ll get credit for it in his contract.

It’s not hard to picture Zambrano as a $20MM player on the open market, all things considered.  And if he really wants to maximize his value he could take a three-year deal a la Rafael Furcal.  Zambrano was formerly represented by Scott Boras but now employs Barry Praver and Scott Shapiro.  Praver is best known for representing Sidney Ponson.

In a television interview yesterday, Carlos Zambrano drew a line in the sand.  He’s leaving the Cubs if he doesn’t have a contract extension before the season begins.  He even referred to himself in the third person.  Zambrano expects to be compensated like Barry Zito. 

A review of the Zito contract: seven years, $126MM guaranteed with a full no-trade clause.  Zito’s deal also includes an eighth year option that could be reached based on innings pitched, as well as bonuses for winning the Cy Young.  Zambrano is a full three years younger than Zito.  And fair or not, pitching in the NL has kept his raw ERAs at 3.41 or less in each of his four full seasons.  While that may not make Zambrano the better pitcher, he’ll get credit for it in his contract.

It’s not hard to picture Zambrano as a $20MM player on the open market, all things considered.  And if he really wants to maximize his value he could take a three-year deal a la Rafael Furcal.  Zambrano was formerly represented by Scott Boras but now employs Barry Praver and Scott Shapiro.  Praver is best known for representing Sidney Ponson.

This weekend’s Cubs Convention gave all the local papers a chance to snag some quotes from Carlos Zambrano concerning his contract negotiations.

From the Sun-Times:

"I don’t want to talk contract when the season starts. It has to be before the season starts or spring training."

"There’s a [good] chance I sign with the Cubs. This is a business. I want to stay here, but like I said, this is a business."  MLBTR note: if he didn’t actually say "good," doesn’t that change this quote drastically?

"You take less than Zito take and everybody talks about you, saying, ’Zambrano sign a bad contract.’ You take more and everybody says, ’Zambrano is taking advantage.’ I think the thing is to be around what Zito signed for, more or the same."

"He [Jim Hendry] spent a lot of money. I hope he has more for Big Z."

From the Daily Herald:

"We’re talking right now. (Today) will be the second time my agent meets with Jim Hendry."

From the Tribune:

"Zito is a great pitcher, and it’s good for him he got that contract, and I think that will help me."

Cubs GM Jim Hendry is holding a press conference in about a half hour.  There is speculation floating around that it is to announce a long-term deal with Carlos Zambrano.

However, it could be related to Jeff Samardzija committing to baseball.

UPDATE: Currently it appears that the Cubs were only announcing the Samardzija decision.

By waiting until after the season to work out an extension for third baseman Aramis Ramirez, the Cubs probably cost themselves millions of dollars.  Luckily, they still got him for less than the going rate in the end.

Surely Jim Hendry and Co. are wary of a similar scenario occurring with staff ace Carlos Zambrano.  Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes:

"Talks have yet to begin on Zambrano’s extension, and probably won’t get serious until the start of spring training if the past is any indication."

While some feel that Zambrano’s price rose to over $100 million because of recent free agent signings, I would counter that it was $100 million all along.  Compare Zambrano to Barry Zito as the Tribune did.

1. Zambrano is a full three years younger than Zito.
2. Zito has six straight seasons of 200+ innings; Zambrano has four.
3. In their careers, Zambrano has been tougher to hit, better at home run prevention, and has a significantly better strikeout rate.
4. In peripheral stats, Zito’s only advantage is mildly better control.

Say for the sake of argument that Zito gets six years, $100MM.  In my mind that makes Zambrano in line for at least a seven year, $130MM deal.  That would be $18.5MM annually.  Barry Rozner of the Daily Herald even suggests Zambrano could be a $20MM player. 

Perhaps the Cubs should move to sign Zambrano before Zito signs, as Zito’s contract could be a point of reference for agent Barry Praver.  At least Jim Hendry can be relieved that Zambrano fired Scott Boras at the beginning of this year.

According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000, the Cubs have agreed to a one-year, $6.5MM contract with starter Carlos Zambrano.  With the signing, the Cubs are done with their arbitration-eligible players.

Zambrano enters his age 25 season with a 3.26 career ERA and 1.27 WHIP.  He has steadily improved his baserunners per inning, from 1.45 in his rookie season to 1.15 last year.  While he’s already one of the best 15 pitchers in baseball, Zambrano could enter the truly elite if he’s able to further trim his walk rate.

Baseball Prospectus projects Zambrano to be worth $15,275,000 in 2006 and at least a $10MM pitcher annually through the end of the decade.