The Orioles announced that they have signed right-hander Shane Baz to a five-year deal covering the 2026 to 2030 seasons. The Cornerstone Baseball Group client will reportedly be paid $68MM in that span. He was previously slated to reach free agency after the 2028 season and had agreed to a $3.5MM salary for 2026. This deal adds four more guaranteed years for $64.5MM in new money. MLBTR has learned that Baz will get a $4MM signing bonus and $1MM salary in 2026, followed by salaries of $7MM, $10MM, $21MM and $25MM in the next four years.
Baltimore is evidently quite confident in their ability to get the best out of Baz, a pitcher who is clearly talented but who still comes with some question marks. Baz is a former first-rounder and top prospect but injuries had held him back to the point where he had barely 100 big league innings going into 2025. He did pitch 166 1/3 innings last year but with an uninspiring 4.87 earned run average. Despite that, the O’s surrendered a package of four prospects and a draft pick to get him a few months ago and are now making a big financial commitment to him for years to come.
The Pirates took Baz with the 12th overall pick back in 2017. Before reaching the majors, he was flipped to the Rays in the 2018 Chris Archer trade. Baz debuted with the Rays late in 2021, making three starts. In the minors that year, he posted a 2.06 earned run average while striking out 37.9% of opponents and limiting walks to a 4.4% clip.
Going into 2022, he was considered one of the top pitching prospects in the sport but he required arthroscopic elbow surgery in April of that year. He came back later that season and made a few more starts but then elbow issues popped up again. He underwent Tommy John surgery in September and missed the entire 2023 season.
He was still rehabbing at the beginning of 2024 but eventually got back on the mound and showed some promise. He made 14 starts for the Rays that year with a 3.06 ERA, though his 21.6% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate were both around average. Going into 2025, Baz was finally healthy after many years of elbow issues, which had limited him to 119 2/3 career innings. He made 31 starts and logged 166 1/3 innings in 2025. Unfortunately, the overall results weren’t good. As mentioned, Baz had a 4.87 ERA on the year.
There are some reasons for optimism under the hood. The Rays were playing in a minor league park last year due to hurricane damage to Tropicana Field. It’s possible Baz may have been impacted by that, as he had a 5.90 ERA at Steinbrenner Field but a 3.86 ERA on the road. Normally, about 12% of fly balls turn into home runs at the major league level. For Baz, that number was 18.9% at home and 11.1% on the road last year.
For the whole year, home and away, Baz struck out a solid 24.8% of batters faced. His 9% walk rate was around average. His 46.7% ground ball rate was a few ticks better than par. His 3.95 SIERA was optimistic that he deserved to have an ERA about a run better than where it actually ended up. His fastball averaged 97 miles per hour on the year while he also mixed in a cutter, slider, curveball and changeup.
The Orioles are clearly of the mind that Baz still has his best days ahead of him. Back in December, they sent prospects Slater de Brun, Caden Bodine, Michael Forret and Austin Overn to the Rays, along with a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick, to get Baz and his three remaining years of club control. Three of those four prospects were taken in the first three rounds of recent drafts. The other, Forret, was a 14th-round pick but had become arguably the best prospect in the bunch. The draft pick will be the 33rd overall pick this summer.
There are some parallels to Baltimore’s journey with Trevor Rogers. He was the National League Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021 after he posted a 2.64 ERA over 25 starts for the Marlins. Then Rogers was injured and/or struggling for many years, diminishing his stock. From the start of 2022 to the 2024 deadline, Rogers only tossed 230 1/3 innings with a 4.92 ERA. The O’s felt they could get him back on track and sent Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to the Marlins to get Rogers when he still had two-plus years of control remaining.
It took a while for that bet on Rogers to pay off but it did. He struggled with the O’s late in 2024 and had a knee injury at the start of 2025. After that, he was brilliant. He eventually made 18 starts for Baltimore last year with a 1.81 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. He got the Opening Day nod yesterday against the Twins and earned a win by throwing seven shutout innings.
Like with Rogers, Baz was plucked away from his Florida club, with Baltimore sending a notable prospect package down the coast. Both pitchers had displayed talent but had gone through some injury challenges and posted some underwhelming numbers. The Rogers pick-up has worked out very well. The O’s clearly feel good about getting similar results out of Baz.
Baz is currently 26 but this will be his age-27 season, with his birthday coming up in June. He was set to hit free agency a few months after his 29th birthday. He could have been in line for a nice payday at that point if he pitched well over the next three years. But all pitchers are aware of the potential for injuries, with Baz having direct experience in that department. Rather than betting on his own health, he is cashing in on a robust deal right now.
He will therefore delay his path to free agency by two years but could still be in line for a really nice payday at that point. In recent years, position players in their early 30s have seemingly had far less earning power than their late-20s counterparts. When it comes to pitching, you can still get paid if you’re still putting up numbers. Dating back to the 2021-2022 offseason, there have been seven free agent deals with an average annual value of $25MM or more for position players 31 or older. That number is 13 for pitchers.
In terms of recent extensions for pitchers between three and four years of service time, Baz is coming in under Logan Webb‘s $90MM, which is the top of the class. That’s understandable since Webb had already been established as a frontline pitcher at that point. Cristopher Sánchez is next on the list but that was a different case since he was already locked up via a previous extension. Baz is just a bit above Cristian Javier‘s $64MM deal with the Astros and Sandy Alcantara‘s $56MM deal with the Marlins. Both of those pitchers had better career numbers than Baz does now, but the deals are also a few years old at this point, so Baz seemingly creeps beyond them with some inflation.
For the Orioles, they have been a bit more aggressive in terms of spending money lately. Mike Elias was hired to run the front office in 2018 when the club was rebuilding and owned by the Angelos family. Since then, they have become a contender and are now owned by David Rubenstein. For a long time, Elias never signed anyone to a deal worth $50MM or more. In the past eight months, the O’s signed free agent Pete Alonso $155MM, gave Samuel Basallo a $67MM extension and now this deal with Baz.
It’s now possible that Baz is the key cog in their long-term rotation. Rogers, Chris Bassitt and Zach Eflin are all slated for free agency after 2026. Kyle Bradish is under club control through 2028. Dean Kremer will be slated for free agency after 2027 as long as he gets at least 60 days of service time here in 2026. As those guys depart, they could perhaps be replaced by prospects like Trey Gibson or Luis De Leon, while external additions will presumably be brought in from time to time. As the picture fluctuates, Baz will be a fixture of the group, if Baltimore can push him down the same upside path as Rogers.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the two sides were finalizing a five-year deal worth $68MM which would override his one-year deal for 2026. Photos courtesy of Morgan Tencza, Katie Stratman, Imagn Images
Good for them!
Big paycheck for Baz. It looks like they believe Baz is the frontliner.
Good move. About time the Orioles pay a pitcher on a longer-term deal.
Well, it’s not that simple. They just are smart and don’t wish to overpay on a 7+ year deal for a pitcher to underperform and rehab.
Sweet!!
Now do Bradish!!
And Rogers!
I know it’s greedy but also Rogers. wonder how long Kramer is under Baltimore control. even if they don’t see him as part of the longer future (he’s a perfectly crumulent #5), it would increase his value in a future trade to lock him up on a cost controlled contract.
honestly,not being run by John Angelos can change the whole calculus of this small market team. Baltimore doesn’t have to become Pittsburgh, the farm team for the deep pocketed teams out there. (Gerritt Cole, Tyler Glasnow) Shane Baz can be a data point of where the Os start to reap instead. 😀
Come’on Rubenstein, you can’t take it with you and now is the time to bring a new era of dominant Orioles history around again, like the ’66-’74 teams.
My point with Bradish was they have the same amount of years of control still left, whereas Rogers is gonna have no discount about to be a free agent this year. Live the guy, but top free agent prices I’d rather save for Gunnar, to me anyway.
I like Rogers, and hope he gets us a great Comp pick. But we have some really high-end pitching prospects like 1-2 years away, and I wouldn’t want to sign so many SPs to long deals that they all become ‘chips’ not home developed pitching. (The only area Elias has yet to improve in the Organization…but it’s seems like a bright future, so far)
Your right about Ownership change though. Signing a TOR SP for years is like a whhaaaaaaa????!!?! as an Orioles fan.
Sure makes his Sunday Start a must watch, lol
Gunnar staying in Baltimore after this deal is over is extremely unlikely. About a .0001% chance at this point.
Baltimore_44 — Because??
Hiring Boras as an agent almost guarantees he’ll go to free agency. Same with Westburg most likely.
Hope they try a similar extension with Bradish.
I could see Gunnar getting moved well before his contract is up. I’m sure Elias has made solid offers but the guy has Boras as an agent, which is unfortunately a non-starter.
So, you’re saying there’s a chance?
Westburg is probably worth trading if Mayo can play. He simply cannot stay on the field.
I agree. Gunnar can most likely earn a 500M contract if he keeps playing well.
Witt Jr staying in KC….
He is represented by Octagon, not Boras.
@MacGromit Do you need to make jabs at the Pirates? Rays and Marlins are usually at the bottom of the payroll each year. White Sox are another team that spends low and poorly ran. O’s spend some money and you guys at like your the Yankees or Dodgers.
All I have to say, Chris Davis. That was a big contract that never aged well. Alonso can go the other way like Davis did. Just don’t go jabbing at other clubs when Baltimore hasn’t had much better of a track record on the field than of Rays, White Sox, Pirates, Marlins, and A’s over the last 10 years. O’s finished 5th last year after 2 straight years of winning baseball. But 3 out of 4 seasons of 100+ losses during 2018-2022 seasons.
Orioles win/loss record is nearly matching of the Pirates from 1998 to 2011. So please, don’t take jabs at other teams when Orioles have been just as bad as other low budget or poorly ran organizations. Half of your guys payroll is Alonso this year. Let that sink in
Is Bradish consenting? Ha jk, I’d like to see the same. If he remains in good health, he is everything (except LH) that I think O’s fans knew was possible and wanted to happen with John Means.
Hopefully he can use some of that money to get a razor. Can’t trust someone with blonde facial hair
Baz has been hurt his entire career
Risky move
But Tommy John is outta the way! I think it’s smart signing guys after TJ and recovery, still under 30, that have MLB experience. You’ve eliminated the biggest concern, well, one of the…
@o’ssay
Not really who’s to say that his elbow goes pop again and needs another tjs (hope that’s not the case) but it’s not uncommon for pitchers needing multiple tjs in there career
Brodie-bruce — Yes, of course players can need a second TJ, or sometimes cleaning up the first one too.
While Tommy John surgery is a “common” thing, a second Tommy John is “uncommon” though. Strong disagreement about ‘common’. There are exceptions to the rule, but a second TJ is not a rule…a first TJ is a rule.
If you have 2 pitchers that are of comparable skills that you want to sign to a long term deal, the one that has had, and recovered from, TJ would be more valuable than a pitcher that hasn’t had TJ yet, no?
I’d rather have the guy that is on tjs 0 than one, but I’d rather pay for non damaged goods than damaged ones unless the damaged goods come at a discount
brodie-bruce — Fair enough.
Seems riskier, to me, given the common need of TJ for pitchers. There sure enough are guys that never need the surgery. However, they too, like those needing 2 TJ surgeries, are the exception to rule, not the rule. To me, a recovered player, is a safer bet to play through the contract.
No guarantee. Life and baseball offer none of those. Simply, it’s the best reduction of risk a available (signing a just recovered TJ surgery player). As I see it anyway.
I think it’s incredibly smart. (BOS made a similar maneuver Crochett, SD w/ the Miller trade, and the Orioles did the trade for Rogers because of the injury and recovery he’d gone through).
Now let’s sign Bradish up!! Please!
Yes! His entire career …. Except for last season when he made 31 starts. Oh no, my chosen narrative thwarted by facts!
Lunch…So your argument is that 1 healthy year in 5 is a reason for optimism on a long term extension?
Phj
“your argument is that 1 healthy year in 5 is a reason for optimism on a long term extension?”
Do people think before they write stuff like this?
If he’d been healthy (and good) up to this point the extension would be much bigger
The extension factors in the health issues
I like the extension but agree on the risk. A better move if agreeable to would have been at least the year was a team option with like a $2m buyout.
Last year.
That’s why it’s not twice as much.
You are i suppose assuming he’d be better than the .5 war he produced in his only healthy season?
In 5 years he’s been healthy 1 season…and put up an era close to 5
O’s had so many health issues with grayson and finally traded him… so they decided to do it all over again with baz? But now with a big extension
Works both ways. If he didn’t have an injury history, he’d probably not be willing to sign a long-term contract at this point.
VERY risky.
Makes sense for both sides. Orioles get extra years of control on a possible ace, while Baz gets more security.
That’s cool. In my mind it works like this…just kinda guessing at arb figures over the next couple years. Let’s say he’s 3.5 this year, 8 next and then 12. That’s like buying his 2 free agent years for somewhere between 22-23 million a year. Solid bet
A good deal for both sides in my book. No questioning the stuff Baz has. Health is probably the only concern, which really is a general concern for every pitcher in this day and age. Still just 26 as well, they wouldn’t have traded what they did for him or sign him to an extension if there wasn’t something to like here.
I’m jealous.
That’s a pretty random extension. Could be a steal, even if he’s just a solid middle-rotation arm for most of the contract, health permitting, which has been one of the biggest hurdles for Baz to overcome.
Brilliant! I have been saying since the O’s acquired Baz that he would be a top 10 Cy Young finisher in the AL in ’26 and the Orioles seem to feel the same. Great stuff, right age, will be considered an Ace by the end if the season.
My Top 10 Ten AL Cy Young Picks
1. LHP Garrett Crochet
2. LHP Tarik Skubal
3. RHP Jacob deGrom (if healthy)
4. RHP Hunter Brown
5. LHP Cole Ragans
6. RHP Logan Gilbert
7. LHP Max Fried
8. LHP Framber Valdez
9. RHP Joe Ryan
10. RHP Bryan Woo
Baz misses out but for sure has potential.
He does have the potential to repeat last season’s 4.87 ERA or improve all the way up to his 4.25 career ERA over 54 starts. $68 million for a #4-#5 starter in his 1st year of arbitration eligibility is what is costs in today’s market I guess.
26 year old pitchers certainly could not improve in a new organization. Trevor Rogers definitely didn’t.
His ERA was inflated by Steinbrenner Field (I think that’s why it’s called) and he also has spectacular stuff. Really want to find an issue about this is health and sure, unprovenness.
Learn the park-adjusted FIP stat. He’s been consistently 4-ish. I don’t see him developing into an ace. Maybe a #2 ceiling.
SF
“4.87 ERA or improve all the way up to his 4.25 career ERA”
Imagine using just ERA in the year 2026.
Or ever really. I mean watch a couple games and you’ll see why ERA sucks
He had a 103 FIP- and 93 xFIP- last season. And 104 and 95 in his career
Imagine using imaginary numbers including anything using an x in front of it in evaluating a player in any year.
103 FIP- means he was worse than average. 100 is average. Anything over 100 = worse than average. His 85 ERA+ indicates that as well.
Watch his game this year and you will see why his ERA and FIP (not the one that uses imaginary numbers, the one that uses his actual stats) last season is pretty accurate.
SF
“Imagine using imaginary numbers including anything using an x in front of it in evaluating a player in any year.*
Ahh. Someone who’s ability to understand math ended in middle school.
I’m not the biggest Baz guy so by all means, O’s, lock him up!
Lock him up! No bail!
Seems like Elias is doubling down on his doubling down. The guy hasn’t shown a whole lot yet. This is as my right honorable friend above said “random.”
Overpaid to acquire him…then… overpaid him! Cue the orioles fans claiming “his stuff is ace level!”… if only the results said the same we would all be Baz fans
You know what isn’t ace level? His vanilla mustache
Man I should have gone with “milk mustache”. It was right there! 🥛
Agreed on the moo stash. Sorry if anybody here loves someone with blonde facial hair, but it always looks clownish. That being said- his stuff is ace level. Maybe. I’m going to watch Sunday and then judge this deal solely from that experience.
Sean P you’re relentless and possibly not making too many friends in the greater WA-Baltimore Metro Area.
Baz is an Albino and that’s what accounts for his coloring, no? Or maybe it’s alopecia or some such. Nice going Sean P making fun of somebody’s immutable characteristics. I see any acquaintances you may have who are Baltimore fans quietly deleting you from their address books.
The world is too soft these days. It’s a funny looking stache and that’s ok to mention it. If I had a funny mustache I understand the consequences.
He’s on my fantasy baseball team so I’ll be rooting for the kid
Also it wasn’t me who used the “A-word”. That was you 😱 😬 😳
Hope you didnt
We don’t say Albino anymore. It’s pigmentally challenged.
I actually didn’t know that, and I try to keep up on these things. 👍
I don’t know if they say/prefer that. Please don’t take my advice on things like this lol
SP
“The world is too soft these days. It’s a funny looking stache”
The world is too stupid
There is no such thing as a “funny looking stache”. Moustaches have no inherent qualities about how they look. There are only subjective reactions to them.
Well I suppose that same mentality could actually be applied to basically every physical attribute a person could possess. And… I would have to agree with ya. Nice post 👏🏻
SP
“Well I suppose that same mentality could actually be applied to basically every physical attribute a person could possess”
Yes. Beauty, and ugliness, are 100% in the mind of the beholder
68M for a guy that’s played in 54 career games. Seems risky but in this landscape for SP, I guess it’s not terrible.
I think they’re hoping they unlock his potential. If they do it’s a steal.
They gave Basallo about the same amount of money with less games. They are trying to lock up the young core.
Okay. Hope this works out.
High risk but high reward signing for the Orioles. They seem to not be able to reel in frontline starters in free agency so hopefully this works out for them
Orioles version of a Crochet deal…but, you know, a slightly cheaper version. Something like that…
Temu Crochett
Interesting! Of course its a risk given injuries, so are all pitchers at this point.
They think he can be an ace and therefore won’t be paying $30M a year for him. Let’s just hope that this deal turns out better than the last time the Orioles ponied up for several years on a guy (Ubaldo Jimenez).
I do have to say its about time, Elias! That’s required.
Cobb was the last one
I forgot about Cobb! Maybe because he was signed for 3 years and they got almost a year and a half of well below average performance out of him, while he was above average everywhere else.
Cobb was worse than Ubaldo because we obviously needed to rebuild and instead signed Cobb and Cashner. The end of Duquette.
I do like signing him up After TJ and recovery. Big risk mitigation there. So even if he’s not an Ace, he’s still pitching, but….if he IS an #1/#2, that’s even more reward for the risk.
….you had to bring up Ubaldo, ah. 😂
So you think that once a pitcher has the surgery thay are immune from ever needing it again ?
Astros_fan — Nope. Just greatly reduced.
Us Baltimore fans are still hoping John Means makes it back.
AfiA
“So you think that once a pitcher has the surgery thay are immune from ever needing it again ?”
So you think they said something that could logically be construed as them saying that?
“I do like signing him up After TJ and recovery. Big risk mitigation there.
Reading not your strong point ? “risk mitigation”
AfiA
Do you think that this:
“I do like signing him up After TJ and recovery. Big risk mitigation there.”
Do you think that “mitigating” means
Means this:
“So you think that once a pitcher has the surgery thay are immunefrom ever needing it again ?”
Do you think “mitigating” means “prevent 100%”
If so, maybe read more
“And I won’t accept one million more.”
“Why not?”
“Musk might talk about it.”
What a waste of money by the “Executive of the Year”, who might I add has won nothing. Worst GM in the game
The Cubs are extension happy. The O’s now are too. Who’s gonna be next? Maybe Jeremy Pena? Riley Greene maybe? Logan Gilbert is a possibility too.
I’d like to see Zach Neto and Jose Soriano extended but foresight is not the Angels forte.
LOL, lighten up Francis. They won the AL East, and wildcard the year before. Last year was beyond a disappointment and he’s done nothing but make the team better since. We got Rubes money and Mikey is smart. Best GM? Nah. Worst GM? Heck nah. The world get bigger when you leave the poles, prettier too.
Mikey may have climbed out of the cellar, but he has just as many playoff wins with the Orioles as you and I do.
Last year was entirely his fault. Dipped his toes in the water afraid to jump in, got Sugano and Morton instead of say, Fried, Pivetta, and Luzardo. Season killed before Memorial Day.
Needed pitching after 2022. His mastermind was Cole Irvin.
His best move before this offseason was 1 season of Corbin Burnes. Now he has a few irons in the fire at least and hopefully pays off in 2026. Rotation still has a low ceiling after all this time.
The Dan Duquette era still superior, and that’s despite Jimenez and Davis, and failure to extend Cruz. They didn’t have much starting pitching back then either. Mikey’s safely better than Syd Thrift at this point at least.
You really believe the “rotation still has a low ceiling”? I think the opposite. This is the lowest floor and highest ceiling they’ve had in decades. You got potential to get real quality innings up and down the rotation. Multiple guys could get cy votes. Im stoked about the rotation this season
Floor is higher than last season too. Kremer is the #6. Eflin was the opening day starter and he’s the 5 on this years team.
Hahah
They will be lucky if 1 guy gets cy young votes unless of course top 100 pitchers can get votes from family members 😉
You realize 4 of the 5 starters have received votes in the past? The fifth they believe in enough to give up 4 prospects and extend him.
gorav – Yes, its a low ceiling and partly due to injury, but we’re at “gotta see it to believe it” stage.
Bradish – pitched to a high ceiling for 2/3 of the 2023 season – before injuries. Can’t guarantee that’s recaptured over a full season (though down the stretch 2025 was encouraging)
Baz – has only shown flashes and he was also injured in 2024. If you discount the band box he played at home, he had mid rotation stuff on the road last year. Obviously, Orioles just bought the upside here.
Rogers – he’s going to regress to peripherals, that’s mid rotation stuff. Not fair to expect him to hold a 1.8 ERA given hard hit %, BABIP, etc.
Bassitt – he has to look better than Charlie Morton II outing the other day!
By October, that ceiling might be up where you see it. I just have seen too many years of Orioles pitching to assume that and know its not 1980 any longer.
Agree with Baltimore_44 yes a floor of Kremer/Eflin/Povich versus Povich/McDermott/Young/Morton/Gibson in 2025 is higher.
While you have a point the rotation has been middling to awful (Mike Wright days) for a long time, it doesn’t measure up to NYY or Toronto even in the division.
An ERA of nearly 5 last season so lets extend him.
An ERA of over 4.5 so let’s give him $210 million. Good work if you can get it like Dylan Cease.
Home/away splits discounting a minor league park.
Skip- Baz had a sub-4.00 ERA when not pitching at the spring training/MiLB park the Rays played at last year.
King, BRAAAAAAK! Wrong Answer. While the A’s triple A park Sutter Health Park was an extreme hitters park, Steinbrenner Field was close to neutral. It was not T-Mobile or Petco, but it was not Coors or Sutter.
Baz just was bad last season. He was also bad in his first start this season. At some point fans need to stop making excuses for him.
So confident and yet so wrong.
Steinbrenner Field is VERY hitter friendly for LHHs, who coincidentally pummeled him (and plenty of other pitchers) there.
Steinbrenner Field had a 97 Park Factor for LHB. Its actually pitcher friendly for left handed batters. Maybe you should check before commenting. StatCast has that information available readily. Just Google “Statcast park factors”.
Going to post the link in a response to this because this site gives me the your post is awaiting moderation message of doom when I post one.
Do you know what park is REALLY hitter friendly for LHB? Oriole Park at Camden Yards. It had a 108 Park Factor. Only Coors Field was more hitter friendly for LHB.
Here you go. The actual Park Factors.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-f…
Big mistake. Hes not a front line starter. Got to pray the guys they sent to Tampa are not all stars when the dust settles..
Should of sent that package for Gore n paid him if they must
See the thing is he was projected to be that guy. The commitment is not that bad. The thing is that even if he is just a number 4 starter it still would be worth it. He really doesn’t have tobe that good to honest to earn the checks.
The Orioles gave up basically 3 first round picks (two 2025 1st round picks and a 2026 Comp A pick which is #33 overall), a third round pick, and a AA starting pitcher for Baz.
The AA starting pitcher, Michael Forret, looked outstanding last season. He sits 94-95 and can run it up to 98, was 2nd in the minors in ERA, FIP, and WHIP, and was 5th in BAA. He he has the stuff and control of a mid-rotation starter. At the time he was considered the throw-in on that trade. The one I like the best is Caden Bodine, a catcher with the NCAA WS runner up Coastal Carolina. Go back and watch replays of the college WS. He is a very polished player. He is going to be one of those catchers that both hit and play good defense.
While none of the players the Orioles traded are going to help the Rays this season, at least one will turn out to be a very good player in the majors just by the odds. With the Rays development system 3 of the 4 might. A huge amount of talent in that group.
Very sensible deal. 1 WAR is going for about $9-10 million on the free agent front. Baz is being paid to average about 1.3-1.5 WAR per season.
If he puts up a couple 2-3 WAR seasons that will off set the injury shortened ones and likely break Baltimore about even.
I realize he’s not yet a free agent. Just running numbers.
Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees heavily skew that number
He kind of fits the Dodgers model. Glasnow and Snell are both electric and injury prone.
You make a good point. That led to the thought above.
How is this deal adding “4 more years” if he wasn’t a free agent until 2028?
Cost certainly as it avoids arbitration for 2027 and 2028, and then his pays jumps up for the two would-have-been free agent years that are now covered. So he now has four years of guaranteed salary which he did not have before.
Pre-FA players only get 1 year contracts.now he has a contract for 5 years.
Yes. But it’s misleading to say “4 MORE”. Arbitration is essentially still under team control as long as the team wants the player.
Sure, the Orioles did nice by Baz by giving him big guaranteed money to cover arbitration years also, but they really only locked him up for 2 extra, not 4
I like this for the O’s!
Just another player the Pirates lost in the Chris Archer deal.
Looks like if the Flyers mascot was a real person.
Good luck Shane!
It’s a gamble, but it’s not a 200M or 300M gamble.
Would the Yanks trade Aaron Judge to the blue Jays in exchange for Santan-der??
🥱
Is that a yes?
Wow!
I loved the Baz trade to begin with and now I love it even more, LFG O’S!!!
Test
I don’t think this is a good risk
Given the O’s track record with moves like this, within a couple of months they’ll find out he has a serious arm/shoulder issue and they’ll be lucky to get a full year’s worth of innings out of him over the course of the entire contract.
Well, his agent is NotScottBoras and he plays for NottheYankees so this is wonderful news!
Not awful at $16 million per…but certainly not what I’d want my team doing with that dough.
Phillies quite literally just locked up 2 of their starters.
Yes the Phillies did. Both with much more track record than Baz. One for 5/135 starting in 2027 and the other for 4/22.5.
My brother BeeHayZee is a fan.
I guess for 75-80 appearances, that won’t be too bad.
I can’t help but notice the parallels between Shane Baz and Grayson Rodriguez, both talented starters with an unfortunate injury history. They traded one way while they traded for the other and then extend him. They must see something really bright in Baz knowing how skittish the O’s are when it comes to both injuries and extending players.
$25M in the last year – that’s just insane
Great time to be an Orioles fan! Fantastic signing.
This is big picture folks. This is about Bradish/Rodgers and really about Henderson. The team is showing that there is long term commitment to sustainable winning. There is no article about it. Rutschman you know turned down the money. Basilio took it. Rutschman is starting to look more Wieters than Posey. They are going to let him walk. Henderson is who they want. Witt left 100s of million on the table. That the deal they want with Henderson.
Do you think Henderson will sign for 14 years and $377.7 million? Another 5+ WAR season and that will be considered a low ball offer for negotiations.
Witt was pre-arb. Henderson is in first year of arbitration now. Next year will be year two. Because he was a Super Two, he will get 4 dips at arbitration. I think that if the Orioles don’t come out swinging big with an offer of $400+ million right now, the Henderson will just wait for his $500+ million payday in FA.