Olney: Red Sox Discussing Andruw Jones
According to ESPN’s Buster Olney:
"The Red Sox and the Braves have talked about a deal that would send Andruw Jones to Boston for Coco Crisp, Craig Hansen and a prospect. But according to an executive familiar with the discussions, the Braves made a counter offer, asking for Jon Lester to be the third player."
This may be the surprise blockbuster that’s been rumored; it’s a testament to Theo Epstein that there hasn’t been a whisper of this til now. We’ve got just 2.5 hours to go.
If I’m John Schuerholz, I’d just try to get Lester involved and not worry about the rest.
UPDATE: Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe tells us that the Andruw Jones talks are dead, and that they didn’t really go anywhere. He says the Sox may still be in on Soriano. He also throws Chris Young of the Padres into the mix for the first time.
Boston Herald: Crisp In Trade Talks
Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald and Buster Olney of ESPN are hearing the same thing: that Coco Crisp is available in trade talks. In fact, Crisp was offered to the White Sox for a starting pitcher. The Sox have six of ’em, so it’s anybody’s guess. Maybe a buy low attempt on the fatigued Mark Buehrle? Nah.
Crisp is hitting just .269/.322/.389 since returning from a broken finger and kidney stones on May 28th. His OBP is not down because he’s drawing fewer walks – in fact, his walk rate has remained remarkably steady for years. It’s down because Crisp’s OBP is normally driven by a .300 average and the hits aren’t quite there this season. That’s the problem with an OBP reliant on base hits. The culprit may be a reduction in Crisp’s contact rate. Normally he puts the bat on the ball 86% of the time but this year he’s down to 83%.
Even an average center fielder should post a .335 OBP and .425 SLG, and normally Crisp tops that. He’s still just 26. Defensively, Crisp is one of the game’s best as a left fielder. In center field, not so much.
The Red Sox seemingly wanted to keep Crisp around, signing him to a three year contract extension in April. However, they did trade Bronson Arroyo after signing him to a contract extension.
Crisp For Marte Done Deal?
According to a source:
"I’ve been told it’s a done deal with a contingency regarding Mota’s health. If he hits the DL a predetermined amount of times Sox might have to give up another player to be named later."
This is the same rumor/source cited in the recent RotoWorld blurb on the topic. RotoWorld also points to a Paul Hoynes Cleveland Plain Dealer article from this morning. Here’s that info:
"There is movement in the Coco Crisp trade to Boston.
Indians left-hander Arthur Rhodes, according to a major league source, flew to Philadelphia on Friday morning to undergo a physical by the Philadelphia Phillies. Rhodes is part of a much discussed three-way trade among the Indians, Boston and Philadelphia.
The source said the Indians are still negotiating with Boston on the main part of the trade. The key players discussed between the Indians and Boston – Crisp and third base prospect Andy Marte and right-hander Guillermo Mota – reportedly remain the same. Other players who may be traded include Indians reliever David Riske and catcher Josh Bard and Boston catcher Kelly Shoppach and right-hander Manny Delcarmen.
Rhodes would be traded for Phillies outfielder Jason Michaels, who would replace Crisp in left field."
Comparing Crisp And Damon
Both Coco Crisp and Johnny Damon came at a very steep price. The Red Sox mortgaged part of their future, while the Yankees simply coughed up $52MM for four years. Tossing salaries and cost of acquisition aside, which team actually has the better player for 2006?
Let’s start by looking at Baseball Prospectus’s WARP statistic. Wins Above Replacement Player is a measure of value that combines both offense and defense into a single number.
Damon was worth 5.5 wins in 2005, while Crisp tallied 5.6. So the players had very near equal value. Baseball Prospectus projects Crisp at 4.6 wins in 2006, whereas Damon projects at 5.7. It will be interesting to see if those projections are changed before the ’06 season begins.
As leadoff hitters, who gets on base more often? Damon has a career OBP of .353, but his last two seasons had rates of .380 and .366. Crisp has a more pedestrian .332 career OBP, with marks of .344 and .345 in recent years. It’s not a huge difference, but Damon has a clear advantage here.
Damon’s overall offense is superior, probably worth about one win more than Crisp.
How about defense? Damon posted 14 FRAR (Fielding Runs Above Replacement) in 2005 and 22 the season before. Crisp managed 15 FRAR in left field last season, and 11 as mostly a CF in 2004. His playing time was limited, but it still looks like Damon may have a slight edge here. Damon had a 2.93 range factor in 2005 to Crisp’s 2.23. Crisp posted a 2.32 mark in 2004. Fielding stats are imperfect, but it doesn’t hurt to consider what’s available.
One other factor to consider is that Damon is entering his age 32 season while Crisp is entering his age 26. That’s an important six year difference. Crisp’s most comparable player, Jim Piersall, posted a .293/.350/.449 line at age 26. Damon’s closest comp is Kenny Lofton, who hit .301/.405/.432 at age 32 but managed just 465 ABs. Obviously these are just comparisons, but Lofton basically became a part-time player due to injuries and declining skills at age 35. After hitting .322 at age 31, Piersall didn’t contribute much in any season.
It’s close, but I’d rather have Damon if I was trying to win it all in 2006. Certainly Boston’s decision is defensible considering Damon’s contract and age.
Crisp For Marte Trade Complete?
Tony Massarotti of the Boston Herald had the scoop last night:
"According to baseball sources, the Red Sox and Cleveland Indians have agreed in principle on a deal that will bring outfielder Coco Crisp to the Sox in a multi-player trade. The deal was agreed upon several days ago under the condition that Cleveland be able to acquire another outfielder to replace Crisp, presumably Jason Michaels from the Philadelphia Phillies."
While everyone seems to agree that Crisp and Marte are the principles and the teams have been talking quite a bit, no other source that I’ve found has confirmed this trade as complete. Chris Snow of the Boston Glove indicates that talks are still ongoing.
Should the deal go down, it appears that the Indians plan to hold Marte back for one more year. According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer:
"The Indians feel Marte will have to spend this season at Class AAA regardless of his position, which doesn’t do them much good if they’re going to challenge Chicago in the AL Central."
The Indians restructured and exercised Aaron Boone‘s 2006 option in August of 2005, apparently deciding that there was no better alternative considering the price ($3.75MM). In his age 32 season, Boone posted a .243/.299/.378 line in 511 at-bats. That performance ranked 36th offensively among third baseman in 2005. Boone spent much of the season shaking off the rust after missing 2004 because of a torn ACL. He did manage to improve to .276/.336/.394 in the second half.
Still, you have to think the Indians made the decision on Boone’s option before they realized Marte was available. Given that Marte hit .275/.372/.506 as a 21 year-old in Triple A, he would very likely approximate or exceed Boone’s 2006 production at a tenth of the cost.
Spinning Edgar Renteria, Guillermo Mota, and cash into Coco Crisp is a fine deal on the surface for the Red Sox. However, they may have opened up a new hole by solving their center field problem. The team will now be relying on a positive contribution from Mike Lowell, who is no safe bet for a rebound following a woeful .236/.298/.360 line in 2005. Lowell was, in fact, one of the few third basemen worse than Aaron Boone in 2005.
The addition of Alex Gonzalez is also probably not a good thing for Boston. Even with defense considered, the Sox would be lucky to get an Orlando Cabrera-ish contribution in 2006. (And I’m referring to Cabrera circa 2005, who hit .257/.309/.365).
The real winner in all of this is the Indians. Even if they do delay Marte’s debut, Crisp wasn’t irreplaceable as a left fielder. The average AL left fielder hit .278/.333/.437 in 2005, while Crisp hit .300/.345/.465. Marte projects to be a solid regular and has star potential.
Jason Johnson Signs With Indians
FoxSports is confirming that Jason Johnson has indeed signed a one-year contract to pitch for the Indians. By acquiring Johnson and Paul Byrd, the Tribe now has a group of five starters that combined to pitch over 1000 innings in 2005. That depth makes the departure of Kevin Millwood a foregone conclusion. Getting a couple of decent starters for one and three years is a much smarter path than committing to five risky years of a pretty good starter in Millwood.
The Indians definitely don’t have a need for starting pitching anymore, so it seems that Coco Crisp will stay put for the time being. Cleveland is still weak at the corners, so Crisp would only depart in a deal for a powerful 1B or 3B. Troy Glaus would’ve been nice, but the trade market is looking bare at this point. Mike Sweeney, Shea Hillenbrand, and Hank Blalock could be had, but all represent only a small upgrade over Aaron Boone or Ben Broussard.
The Cardinals’ main trading chip in a possible Coco Crisp deal was Jason Marquis. Now, St. Louis will look elsewhere to bring in another outfielder. Some sources indicate that a Marquis for Kevin Mench swap could go through in spring training. The Cardinals would like to add a solid power bat to replace Larry Walker, and the acquisitions so far may have to suffice until midseason. The rumored Miguel Tejada for Mark Mulder and David Eckstein trade appears to be completely false.
Cardinals Interested In Coco Crisp
According to 2005 WARP (a Baseball Prospectus stat that combines offense and defense), Coco Crisp was the game’s 8th best left fielder in 2005. He won’t be a free agent until after the 2009 season, according to Unofficial Major League Baseball. For a Cleveland club in need of an additional bat, trading Crisp away doesn’t seem reasonable. For the price, Crisp is a nice guy to have around.
Nonetheless, a couple of sources are saying the Indians are definitely entertaining offers and the Cardinals have inquired. As useful as Crisp is, it’s never a bad idea to entertain offers.
Via the trustworthy Hawg Wild, Viva El Birdos confirms the Cards’ interest. Lboros has the scoop on some other Cards buzz going around as well.
I can’t vouch for this link, which comes via the grapevine and has a story with it.
Jason Marquis for Crisp would seem to be an even swap, but that’s just speculation. You can check out Baseball America’s top ten prospects for the Cardinals here; it’s possible a package of a few of the non-Reyes guys could entice Mark Shapiro. More likely he wants a Major League starter in return.
Update: A lot of folks have contested my comment above that Marquis-Crisp would be an even swap, and rightfully so. The biggest difference is less in talent level than in the contracts of each player. Anyway, for the most thorough and insightful discussion of Coco Crisp trade possibilities, check out lboros’s post today over at Viva El Birdos.