Odds and Ends: Dice-K, Varitek, Rolen
Links for Monday…
- Tim Brown and Peter Abraham offer their takes on the top free agents.
- A note from Abraham – if Daisuke Matsuzaka finishes top three in the AL Cy Young vote, he’ll get an extra $2MM in each of the ’09 and ’10 seasons.
- The Mariners could hire their new GM as soon as tomorrow. Geoff Baker discussed the merits of the four candidates in two recent posts.
- Jason Varitek was mum on his future last night.
- Joe Frisaro has the Marlins’ 2009 payroll in the $30-35MM range. They have 15 arbitration-eligible players.
- I came across an interesting note about B.J. Upton. Back in 2004, Devil Rays GM Chuck LaMar wanted to sign Upton to an unprecedented eight or nine-year contract before he reached the Majors. The new Rays regime eventually succeeded with a similar deal for Evan Longoria.
- The Diamondbacks signed a Korean high school catcher named Kim Jae-yoon for $150K.
- Jordan Bastian would be stunned if Scott Rolen exercises his right to opt out of his contract or demand a trade.
- T.R. Sullivan says the Rangers are not in the running for C.C. Sabathia.
- SI.com’s Jon Heyman looks at how the Phillies were built.
Odds and Ends: Posada, Uribe, Wise, Red Sox
Today’s links…
- Jorge Posada could rejoin the Yankees as early as Wednesday (a few reports suggested Tuesday). Kat O’Brien of Newsday says the Yanks will hold on to both Jose Molina and Chad Moeller for "a while" after Posada returns, but as Peter Abraham points out on the LoHud Yankees blog, the Yankees have a real need for a set-up man now that Joba Chamberlain is starting.
- Juan Uribe has been activated from the 15-day DL, and although Ozzie Guillen said he wasn’t guaranteed playing time, they had to make room on the roster nonetheless. DeWayne Wise was designated for assigment.
- The news that Clay Buchholz has been optioned to Pawtucket comes as a shock to yours truly, but it underscores just how much starting pitching the Red Sox have right now, even with Daisuke Matsuzaka currently on the 15-day DL. Free agent pickup Bartolo Colon has worked out so far as a low-risk, high-reward signing. They’ve also got a good spot-starter in Justin Masterson, currently in Double A. And as if that weren’t enough, Curt Schilling could start throwing off a mound June 6. The odd man out could bring something useful in a trade. Just idle speculation, and I know there’s no such thing as too much pitching…but the Red Sox do have some holes to fill.
Sarah Green writes for UmpBump and the Boston Metro. She can be reached here.
Sunday A-Rod Recap
I hate to post about the same guy twice in a row, but there’s been a flurry of Alex Rodriguez speculation on this fine October Sunday. To break it down, here’s a brief recap:
- The New York Post reports the Yankees are expected to make an offer to prevent A-Rod from free agency. However, the offer will approach neither $300MM nor 12 years. I think this is both expected and a smart move by the Yanks because…
- Nick Cafardo likens Scott Boras’ approach toward marketing A-Rod’s "Iconic Value" to the exaggeratory strategy he took with Daisuke Matsuzaka. And Johnny Damon, for that matter.
- Bob Klapisch reports that in Torre’s wake, there will be much posturing from Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and Alex Rodriguez who we can expect to wait as long as possible to make any decision(s). And this is because…
- The New York Daily News’ Mark Feinsand notes that "it is unlikely that the Yanks will have all of their issues resolved" before the tenth day following the World Series, when A-Rod will decide whether or not to opt out. Mike Lupica meanwhile points out that the unrest in the Yankee system is a golden opportunity for A-Rod to indeed opt out with a plausible excuse. Or as Scott Boras so eloquently put it to CNN.com, the "state of flux is a grand issue." And further leverage for the player and his agent.
Posted by Nat Boyle
Felix 1, Daisuke 0
Daisuke Matsuzaka received all the hype from ESPN entering tonight’s game. After all, it was his Fenway debut. He tossed a solid seven innings, allowing three runs to the Mariners. He retired Ichiro every time, even striking him out once. Matsuzaka also threw one high and tight to Ichiro, and it wasn’t an accident. Nor was his HBP of Jose Guillen, in my opinion. Kenji Johjima, who’s had plenty of ABs against Matsuzaka, smacked a couple of doubles for the Mariners.
But the big story was 21 year-old Felix Hernandez, who carried a no-hitter into the 8th inning. I was hoping he’d quiet Boston down, and it was incredible to watch him carve up their lineup in "radiant HD." Before the game, I couldn’t resist the +162 Bodog was giving for a bet on Felix. Something tells me they won’t set the line there again for him, no matter who he’s facing. (Some of you may remember my now-defunct website DailyBaseballPicks.com. Turns out I had $39 sitting around in my Bodog account from that little experiment).
ESPN’s announcers at least avoided the term "no-hitter" for most of the game, although they just said "screw it" around the 7th inning and said it a few times. Not cool, guys. Still, I must say I enjoy the pitching insight added by Orel Hershiser. ESPN’s gun was blatantly at least 3 mph fast – Joel Pineiro wasn’t throwing 94 – but Felix was obviously dealing. The guy’s sliders and changeups are on par with most pitchers’ fastballs. Barely anything left the infield or the ground against him, though Jose Lopez lended some excellent glovework at second base.
After his one-hitter on the big stage tonight, we can safely say Felix Hernandez has arrived. You have to wonder – if Felix pitches to his 90th percentile PECOTA – a 2.74 ERA – and does it for 215 innings, can the Mariners ride that to the playoffs? In the King, they have one of the most valuable commodities in the game.
Daisuke Matsuzaka Projection
I’ve thrown my hat into the ring with a Daisuke Matsuzaka projection. Check it out at RotoAuthority.
My 2007 RotoAuthority Fantasy Baseball Guide should be available for $9.99 in mid-January. Brace yourself.
Red Sox Sign Matsuzaka
According to Jon Heyman of SI.com, the Red Sox have signed Daisuke Matsuzaka to a six-year, $52MM deal with an additional $8MM in incentives. That makes him an $18.5MM player, if you are to include the posting fee. If you’re so inclined. Boston now boasts the following starting rotation:
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Curt Schilling
Josh Beckett
Jon Papelbon
Tim Wakefield
I would assume Jon Lester is the sixth man, ready to step in when needed or when he proves he’s better than Wakefield.
Red Sox To Make Record Offer To Matsuzaka
The Red Sox plan on making a record offer to Daisuke Matsuzaka, at least for a player who’s never pitched in the Majors.
Based on this info from Gordon Edes, I wonder if it’s a six-year, $100MM offer. It’s tough to picture the Red Sox going far beyond that dollar amount, though Scott Boras might want that amount for five seasons. Or perhaps he’s angling for $60MM over three seasons instead. We should have an idea soon. Baseball Prospectus’s Nate Silver has a system that says Matsuzaka is worth roughly $80MM over six seasons.
Matsuzaka Talks Breaking Down
The outlook is not so good for the Red Sox to sign Japanese ace Daisuke Matsuzaka. Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald writes that talks are "breaking down." Silverman’s source places to blame on agent Scott Boras, who apparently doesn’t feel like making a deal. As Buster Olney notes, that certainly sounds like it originates from the Red Sox.
Olney also notes that the Sox will probably provide what amounts to a blank check to Roger Clemens should they fail to sign Matsuzaka. While there has been some talk of Clemens pitching for all of 2007, his agent is pushing for another shortened season.
To me that makes the Yanks more likely to be players, as by June one of Wang, Johnson, Mussina, Pettitte, or Igawa could certainly be injured. If someone had to be bumped to accomodate Clemens for one year, who would it be?
Carroll On Matsuzaka
Will Carroll has spoken to several Boston sources on the topic of signing Daisuke Matsuzaka. Those sources are said to be pessimistic about Boston’s chances at signing him. I have read the same in various Boston newspapers.
Carroll also adds that Matsuzaka will not be eligible for free agency until after the 2008 season, should he return to Japan. The bold letters are from Carroll, to help correct the misinformation that Matsuzaka would only owe the Lions one more season.
More Matsuzaka
No hot rumors here, but I wanted to point everyone toward my latest article on The Hardball Times about Daisuke Matsuzaka. One of the things I looked at was the impact that the Red Sox bid could have on the free-agent market, particularly Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt. It’s interesting that the team that won the bidding wasn’t one of those that was strongly going after Zito–in other words, the Red Sox set a staggeringly high market price for an ace pitcher, but by winning the bid, didn’t shrink the market for Barry.
I also noticed that the high-end starting pitching market is just as strong as it was last year, despite all the talk of this being a "weak" market. I mean, who would you rather choose from: Zito, Schmidt, and Pettitte, or Burnett, Millwood, and Loiaza? Take a look at Tim’s Top 50 list from last offseason; it’s eye-opening.
Also, I was interviewed for a segment this morning on NPR’s morning edition. It’s aimed toward a general audience who hasn’t been following the Matsuzaka sweepstakes for months (or even days), but if you think it’s cool that a blogger managed to get their voice on NPR right after Peter Gammons (I sure do!), you can check that out here.
By Jeff Sackmann