Tigers Trade/Signing Speculation
Lynn Henning of the Detroit News posted a Q&A yesterday, giving his informed opinion on the Tigers’ various hot stove situations. Below are some highlights.
- Henning expects Kenny Rogers to be with the Tigers in 2008, and I think that’s the general sentiment around baseball. Rogers has already stated that it’s the Tigers or retirement in 2008. I’ll guess a $6MM base salary plus incentives to make $10MM possible.
- Henning sees the Tigers picking up Ivan Rodriguez‘s $13MM option for ’08, for lack of a better option. Given the $3MM buyout it’s kind of a like a one-year, $10MM deal. Ken Rosenthal opined back on August 11th that the Tigers would choose the buyout, but he also felt the team was "almost certain" to exercise the option when discussing it in April.
- The price for Miguel Tejada – $26MM over two years plus a bevy of young players – is considered too high. I’m not sure where the Tigers payroll will be in ’08; they opened ’07 with a team-record $95MM mark. Based on my back of the napkin estimates, the Tigers will have to pay out a net $7.5MM extra based on escalating salaries of players already under contract. Contracts for Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, and Jeremy Bonderman will contribute to a $19MM increase, while the losses of Todd Jones, Sean Casey, and Neifi Perez will save the team $11.5MM. The net effect is the $7.5MM increase, which doesn’t account for replacements for the players lost.
- One minor offseason acquisition for Detroit could be a left-handed hitting outfielder who can play first base. Luis Gonzalez, Mark Sweeney, or Darin Erstad could fit the bill.
Rosenthal’s Latest Video: Pudge, Bedard, Burrell
Ken Rosenthal has a new video up; check it out. Some highlights:
- Back in April, I made predictions of whether various club options will be exercised for 2008. My opinion on many of the option decisions has changed since then. One example is Ivan Rodriguez. At the time I said his defense and power would justify the $10MM difference between his $13MM option and $3MM buyout. Currently, Pudge is hitting for his usual decent average but has drawn just five walks in 379 plate appearances. Rosenthal believes the Tigers might opt for the buyout, especially if Rodriguez tails off as the season wears on. Maybe so, but at effectively one year, $10MM, they might still go for it. The other options are limited.
- The Orioles’ #1 priority for the offseason is to sign ace Erik Bedard to a long-term contract extension. But if the two parties aren’t in the same ballpark, they could exact a king’s ransom in a trade. As I said before, Bedard could be a $20MM+ pitcher if he stays on course through the 2009 season.
- Pat Burrell cleared waivers, but the Phillies have no intention of trading him given the way he’s been hitting. Burrell has an absurd .392/.519/.725 line since July 1. No one has been better in OBP over that time period, and only Hanley Ramirez has a better SLG. Anyway, I’ve updated the list of players who have cleared waivers.
Rosenthal’s Latest
The always-interesting Ken Rosenthal has another column up, chock full of rumory goodness. The man knows how to work the phones like no other. Some highlights:
- Rosenthal considers the possibility that Curt Schilling could be the easy choice for the best available free agent starter after this season, with John Smoltz off the board. Even if Carlos Zambrano is out there, Schill would be a better option for teams looking to go short-term. Rosenthal says the Red Sox could revisit extension talks, even though it seemed just a month ago that Schilling was certain to hit the open market. One year and $13MM still looks pretty solid for the Sox.
- The Orioles may make an offer to Alex Rodriguez, should he opt out of his contract at year’s end. It’s admittedly a longshot, though the O’s did win the bidding for Miguel Tejada back in December of ’03. If not A-Rod, then the Orioles will chase a "premium center fielder." Translation: Ichiro, Andruw, or Torii. Seems unlikely that Corey Patterson, a Scott Boras client, returns to Baltimore in 2008.
- Rosenthal feels that the Tigers are "almost certain" to exercise Ivan Rodriguez‘s $13MM option for 2008. I agree with that one, especially given the $3MM buyout price. If the best available catchers are indeed Michael Barrett and Paul Lo Duca, Barrett has the clear advantage. The Cubs don’t have any catchers in the pipeline (most teams don’t) so I can’t see why they wouldn’t just give him what he wants. Most likely the Cubs would get a discount.
Who’s Catching For Mets In ’08?
Paul Lo Duca‘s contract is up after this season. As you may recall, Lo Duca’s reps brought up the idea of an extension at the Winter Meetings in January, but the Mets didn’t want to discuss it yet. Lo Duca, 35, makes $6.25MM this season.
We know catchers don’t age well; there’s a decent chance Lo Duca tanks in 2008 (if not this year). PECOTA might throw him another $5-6MM for ’08, but that’s about it. The Mets are right to hesitate.
Assuming they cut him loose, they could look internally for their new backstop. Ramon Castro might be able to start, or at least serve in a platoon. Castro, 31, has hit a respectable .247/.328/.440 with 15 HR as a Met in 352 ABs. But while Lo Duca has gotten a lot of grief in the New York papers, it’s Castro with the true blemish on his record. It didn’t stop the Mets from signing him initially though; such offenses are often ignored by teams.
Interestingly, Castro could back up Ivan Rodriguez for a second time if the Mets sign him this offseason. Castro was behind Pudge in ’03 for the Marlins. Earlier this week, though, I predicted that the Tigers will exercise Pudge’s $13MM option, if not extend him even further.
The two legitimate free agent options for the Mets appear to be Michael Barrett and Jorge Posada. Barrett is five years younger, and could post his best season in 2007. Plus, the Cubs haven’t really made any effort to extend his contract. Jason Kendall will be out there as well, and he’d probably take a shorter-term deal.
The Pudge Option
In today’s column, John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press names the many milestones Tigers catcher Ivan Rodriguez is approaching. Lowe mentions at the end of his column:
"Right now, it seems automatic that the club will exercise the option and have him catch next season — and maybe into the season after that, when he could be passing Fisk for the most games caught all-time."
That is an interesting statement as Rodriguez’s option for 2008 is probably not a no-brainer. It’s for a hefty $13MM. But it should be noted that it includes a $3MM buyout, so the question is whether he’s worth $10MM to the Tigers. PECOTA says $8.125MM, but might not fully value his defense and intangibles.
Some other catchers could be available after this season: Jorge Posada, Paul Lo Duca, Michael Barrett, and Jason Kendall. Since all would require at least a two-year deal, I think Pudge’s 2008 option should be exercised. As far as keeping him in 2009 as well…only for the right price (less than $10MM).
Will Tigers Keep Pudge?
The Tigers have a $13MM option with a $3MM buyout for Ivan Rodriguez in ’08. Pudge turned 35 in November. He said recently that he’d like to finish his career with Detroit and might play until he’s 40.
Given the buyout, Rodriguez’s option is more like $10MM. PECOTA puts him at $8,125,000 for 2008, so exercising it seems wise. There’s value in the one-year commitment. Extending him for extra years might be a mistake, though.
Detroit’s larger 2008 commitments:
Ordonez – $15MM
Sheffield – $14MM
Bonderman – $8.5MM
Inge – $6.2MM
Polanco – $4.6MM
After the ’07 season, Rodriguez, Kenny Rogers, Todd Jones, and Carlos Guillen are all potential free agents.