As I promised, I’ve got a new Javier Vazquez projection up over at RotoAuthority. This should prove to be a nice addition to the back of the Sox rotation, even with a hefty number of home runs allowed.
Javier Vazquez
White Sox Obtain Javier Vazquez
In a move that took both me and Mark Gonzales by surprise, the White Sox acquired starter Javier Vazquez for center fielder Chris Young (plus the unwanted salaries of Orlando Hernandez and Luis Vizcaino). Whenever a defending World Champion makes a couple of major trades, the GM is inevitably described as "bold" in the media. I'm not sure whether I count as a member of the media, but "bold" is getting cliche. Check out some of these synonyms: spunky, audacious, gritty. I think I'll call Kenny Williams spunky when referencing the Vazquez and Thome deals.
If you're a Sox fan, you can't possibly dislike this trade. It's a classic Williams "win now" move. He's been doing this for years, dealing can't-miss prospects for all sorts of players. And why not? The White Sox have raised tons of failed #1 prospects through the years. Remember Scott Ruffcorn, Chris Snopek, Mike Caruso, Jon Rauch, and Joe Borchard?
Williams was dealing from a position of strength in center field. The 22 year-old Young was ranked #7 among White Sox prospects by Baseball America entering the 2005 season. (If you're curious, Gio Gonzalez and Daniel Haigwood, who were used in the Thome deal, ranked #8 and #19, respectively). Young is a skinny, speedy athletic guy with good power. He hit .277/.377/.545 in Double A this year and plays a mean center field. Baseball America compares him to Mike Cameron and says he'll be ready by 2007. By that time, the D-Backs' young outfield should be in full force, boasting Carlos Quentin, Young, and maybe Conor Jackson.
But the White Sox have no reason to worry about 2007. In Vazquez, the club has added a durable innings eater with solid peripheral stats. By that I mean he strikes people out and keeps the walks down. Home runs have been an issue for the last couple of years, and it ain't gettin' better at U.S. Cellular. In fact, the Cell will exacerbate the problem. Still, Vazquez can be counted on for 400 innings of at least league average pitching for the next two years, which is plenty valuable. The fact that Arizona took the washed-up Orlando Hernandez and might give the Sox some cash makes the deal look even better for Chicago.
I'll probably break out a RotoAuthority projection for Vazquez later today, but for now let's see what Bill James's minions came up with. They expect Vazquez to go 12-11 with a 3.85 ERA over 211 innings in '06. Projected WHIP is 1.25, and a 7.8 K/9 is predicted. Of course, the effects of U.S. Cellular and the AL aren't factored into that projection.
Javier Vazquez Trade Close?
With a Javier Vazquez trade supposedly close to complete, it’s been unusually hard to dig up information about the deal. Here’s the situation so far:
Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News addressed Vazquez today with just this blurb:
"Javier Vazquez, who has piqued the Mets’ interest, may be on the verge of getting shipped to the Windy City. A baseball insider suggested the White Sox are the most likely destination for the Diamondbacks pitcher, possibly leading to a trade involving Jon Garland (a free agent after the 2006 season) or Jose Contreras."
Ken Rosenthal is on the same page:
"The White Sox are making a ’strong, under the radar’ bid to trade for Diamondbacks right-hander Javier Vazquez, according to a source with knowledge of the negotiations. The package of players that the Diamondbacks would receive is not known, though it could include a major-league starting pitcher — perhaps right-hander Jon Garland or Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez — and an outfield prospect such as Chris Young."
The Mets have long been mentioned as another suitor for Vazquez, and the Nationals are a dark horse.
I hate to be a wet blanket, but it doesn’t look like Vazquez will end up with either major market club.
I spoke to Chicago Tribune White Sox beat writer Mark Gonzales for his take on the rumor:
"Don’t think it’s going to happen. They had a brief chat, and nothing is on the front burner as of late last week. Garland has become a bigger concern because of the free agent market."
The takeaway? The Sox probably won’t chase Vazquez, but they’re not going to pay Garland A.J. Burnett money after this season. Look for Garland to be dealt before the trading deadline, and possibly this winter.
How about the Mets? My source close to the team tells me that some in the front office are privately scared of how Vazquez fared in the Bronx. Omar likes him, but there is a split opinion. The club is in wait and see mode, so they won’t aggressively pursue Vazquez.
One thing’s for sure – the Diamondbacks are being tight-lipped about details of the Vazquez deal. I know that Jack Magruder of the East Valley Tribune, who is close to Josh Byrnes, still doesn’t know where the righty starter is headed. Perhaps an unexpected team will emerge with the best offer, like the Tigers for example.
Jocketty Faces Burnett Aftermath
A.J. Burnett slipped out of the Cardinals’ grasp because of The Fifth Year, and Lboros over at Viva El Birdos thinks the team was being cheap. He mentions their new stadium, radio and TV deal revenue, and two postseasons in a row. Given that A.J. Burnett was the only free agent pitcher out there who could be a difference-maker, what are Cards fans to do?
Well, they shouldn’t count Walt Jocketty out just yet. While perhaps not the best trade in his history, Jocketty did make a move on one of last Javieyear’s hot commodities, Mark Mulder. He’s fully capable of doing the same thing for Javier Vazquez. The Indians appear to be the front-runner for Vazquez’s services, but the Cards might be able to pull something off.
After a perusal of the Cardinals’ Baseball America Top Ten Prospects, only Anthony Reyes is Major-League ready among a thin crop. It seems that Reyes, and only Reyes, could bring Vazquez, or any other name starting pitcher, to St. Louis. It wouldn’t be the first time Jocketty dealt a near-ready righthanded starter for a proven veteran version. However, should the Snakes insist on a position player (they wanted Coco Crisp), Vazquez won’t be joining the Cardinals. If Jocketty can’t come up with his #2 starter, expect Jason Marquis to remain with the club.
Where’s Javier Vazquez Headed?
Ken Rosenthal had an informative article yesterday about starting pitchers likely to be traded. It’s not loaded with new information, but it’s a handy summary. One bit of new info (at least for me) was a list of likely suitors for Javier Vazquez. Rosenthal named the Braves, Cubs, Mets, and Indians as likely to be interested. In the same sentence, Rosenthal mentioned that Vazquez’s trade request was to join a team closer to his home in Puerto Rico.
Vazquez was born in Ponce, Puerto Rico. I’m not sure if he still lives there, but it’s a reasonable assumption. If Vazquez’s true main concern is to be as physically close to possible to Ponce, and Rosenthal’s list of suitors is accurate, it would be helpful to know the distance from Ponce to each team’s city. That’s why I compiled this handy chart.
| Distance from Ponce, Puerto Rico (miles) | |
| Atlanta | 1548 |
| New York | 1632 |
| Cleveland | 1851 |
| Chicago | 2064 |
| Phoenix | 3000 |
You can see why he was getting a little homesick playing in Arizona. If geography is any indicator, Atlanta is the frontrunner. Maybe they would ship Kyle Davies and change over to the D’Backs.
Ah, but what if Vazquez simply wants to be near large numbers of Puerto Ricans? New York blows other U.S. cities out of the water, of course.
How about Puerto Ricans as a percent of the total city population? Not a big surprise:
| % of Total Population | |
| New York, NY | 9.0 |
| Chicago, IL | 1.8 |
| Cleveland, OH | 1.6 |
| Atlanta, GA | 0.5 |
| Arizona | 0.4 |
Though Atlanta is a little closer to Puerto Rico, the Vazquez should feel right at home with the Mets. Indeed, such a trade is on the table.
Mets Considering Javier Vazquez
All sorts of trade rumors coming from my source close to the Mets’ front office. While it is well-known that the Mets are interested in Arizona righthander Javier Vazquez, my source names a pitching prospect contrary to published reports.
According to my source, the Mets are considering dealing Kris Benson and 19 year-old blue chip pitcher Gaby Hernandez for Vazquez. Up to this point, published reports have named the polished 24 year-old Brian Bannister as the prospect in the deal.
While Hernandez has not pitched above A ball, he has a much higher ceiling than Bannister. Bannister did impress in 45 Triple A innings in 2005, however.
Vazquez’s problem lately has been the long ball. His HR/9 rate has hovered above 1.4 while his strikeout and walk rates were superb last season. Unfortunately for the Mets, Vazquez carried his home run woes with him on the road in ’05. It will troublesome if he continues to do so, but there’ s no doubt that Shea Stadium suppresses home runs (by 16%) and Chase Field inflates them (by 13%).
Even if Vazquez continues to surrender home runs, he’s a marked improvement over Kris Benson. Benson managed a 4.13 ERA in 2005 to Vazquez’s 4.45, but consider:
He’s two years older than Vazquez.
He was much worse away from Shea Stadium.
He hasn’t pitched 200 innings in a season since 2000.
His 2005 strikeout rate was a career low.
Considering that the Mets appear to be entering extreme "win now" mode, the Vazquez trade is a good move even if Gaby Hernandez pans out in 2007.
