Smoltz Could Leave Braves
It seems like every couple of years, the Braves go through contract negotations with John Smoltz. He’s been a Brave for all these years, it just seems inevitable that they’ll work something out. However, a recent quote from Smoltz makes this offseason sound a little different:
All I know is, after these last two years and with my desire to work out, I’ve got two or three more years, easy. I used to always be of the mind-set that if it’s not here, it won’t be anywhere else. But that’s not the case any more. I’ll pitch somewhere else.
Smoltz, 39, is having a Cy Young caliber season. He’s got a 3.36 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 8.3 K/9 in 190 innings. Shortly after the World Series, the Braves need to decide if he’s worth $8MM for 2007.
Smoltz received a four-year deal worth $31MM in November of 1996 following his Cy Young season. He became baseball’s highest-paid pitcher at the time. The results of the contract were 90 starts, one Tommy John surgery, and one season as closer. His next multiyear deal was three years and $30 mil, with a club option as well. He signed his current extension in December of 2004; it included a $6MM signing bonus to bring the average annual value to $9.3MM assuming the option is exercised.
That option, by the way, is a no-brainer. Smoltz is worth $7.4MM next year according to Baseball Prospectus. They project his value at just $11.5MM over the 2008-10 seasons, however. The smart business move may be to just exercise the option and leave it at that. That could result in a midsummer deal. Smoltz’s former team, the Tigers, could have interest if he’s ever available. Smoltz hails from Warren, Michigan and grew up in the Tigers’ system.
One thing that could maybe turn a few teams off: some comments Smoltz made a couple of years ago. I haven’t been able to find out if he’s amended or clarified since. And honestly most teams would probably ignore it the way they ignore DUIs and stuff like that.
Trade Rumor Roundup: 4 Days Left
What’s cooking this morning in the world of MLB trade rumors?
Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey spoke to all sorts of baseball sources; here’s his latest Rumor Mill. New developments: the Mets could pursue various Rockie pitchers, and the Yanks crave John Smoltz.
My Mets guy indicates that the Wilson Betemit for Scott Linebrink deal that’s been bandied about could go down at the last minute. What? He hears things outside of the Mets.
SportsBlah sorts through the Alfonso Soriano rumors.
Jimmy Gobble was scratched from his start last night. Let the rampant rumormongering begin. Actually, KC just switched him with Runelvys Hernandez to break up the southpaws in the rotation.
As the days go by, Doug Melvin sounds more and more like he’ll trade Carlos Lee.
RotoAuthority gives the fantasy take on Shin-Soo Choo, Ben Broussard, Scott Kazmir, and many more recent developments.
All the newspapers are reporting that the Yankees have deemed Scott Proctor "untouchable." I know good relief help is hard to find, but should a 29 year-old middling reliever at the peak of his value really be deemed untouchable? Especially the way Joe Torre is abusing him.
Hadn’t heard of the Mets’ interest in Juan Cruz and Jose Valverde until Dan Graziano mentioned it this morning. Could be a great buy low situation for a real live arm in Valverde. Cruz I think could be tough to pry away.
There was just no reason to try to start Roger Clemens trade speculation. The Astros, five games back in the wildcard, have invested way too much to suddenly wave the white flag.
Bidding war for…Cory Lidle? Looks like Toronto has the lead so far; Lidle starts tonight.
Buster Olney mentioned today in his blog that the White Sox are willing to discuss trades for Freddy Garcia. He also indicates that the Red Sox are working on a large, creative deal with more than two teams.
Add the Mariners and Cardinals to the Yankees for Shawn Green’s interested parties. He can veto a deal to any of these three teams and is happy in Arizona.
John Smoltz Available?
John Smoltz‘s recent comments were blown out of proportion perhaps, but the possibility remains: the Braves could consider trading him this summer. He makes $6MM this year and has an $8MM club option for next year. Though he’s 39 years old, he’s signed to a very friendly deal.
Baseball Prospectus finds Smoltz very similar to Gaylord Perry, minus the spitters. Perry pitched decently until age 44. BP’s projections value Smoltz at $11MM this year and about $7 mil in ’07. He’s shown consistent dominance on the big stage, throwing 206 innings of 2.66 ball in the postseason.
Atlanta has had a top notch farm system for as long as I can remember, and the idea of them being sellers at the trading deadline hasn’t surfaced since I was in grade school. It all depends on whether the team is expected to be competitive in 2007. They should be in the hunt, so trading Smoltz would only make sense if a near-ready MLB prospect came back in the deal – say an Anthony Reyes type.
In 2007, the Braves will have to sort through the following pitchers for the four spots behind Smoltz:
Mike Hampton
Tim Hudson
Kyle Davies
Chuck James
Anthony Lerew
That group in itself could form a competitive rotation. Still, the only sure thing in the group is Hudson. It would be dangerous to count on Hampton to return from Tommy John at age 34 in his old form and for three kids to succeed in the same season. Lerew was highly regarded entering this season but has a 9.38 ERA through 48 Triple A innings this season. He came off the DL a week ago after a back strain. The fact remains: the 2007 Braves need John Smoltz.
The ’07 Braves probably don’t need John Thomson or Marcus Giles, however. I’ve heard Joe Blanton for Giles tossed around, and it would be a smart move for the Braves in my opinion.