Rowand for Garland Rumor
A lot of folks are wondering if there’s anything to the rumored swap of Jon Garland for Aaron Rowand. Todd Zolecki from the Philadelphia Inquirer said it best:
1. Garland has a 6.04 ERA.
2. He just signed a three-year, $29 million contract in December. He makes $10 million in 2007 and $12 million in 2008. Phillies GM Pat Gillick has talked often about payroll flexibility. It’s doubtful he would take on such a contract, especially for a pitcher who is slumping. Garland’s contract also includes a no-trade clause.
3. Perhaps most important, the Phils love Rowand.
Everything Zolecki says here is spot on. The proposed deal here would be a huge win for the White Sox but the Phils could do better if they wanted to unload Rowand and replace him with Shane Victorino.
Garland succeeded last year because he sliced his walk and home run rates from previous levels. His sharp control and low strikeout rate has been on par with the rest of the White Sox pitching staff, but he’s got the worst home runs allowed rate in all of baseball (over 2 per nine innings). Also not helping is a hit rate over 11, third worst in baseball. Can’t blame it on BABIP, which sits at a reasonable .310.
One would expect Garland to keep his ERA under 5 for the life of his contract, but he doesn’t figure to be worth more than three wins a year from here on out.
Aaron Rowand figures to be a bit more valuable, maybe 3.5 wins per season for a while. His current .301/.345/.509 line resembles his breakthrough 2004. Rowand also has highly-rated defense, but that depends on which metric you use.
If the White Sox are looking to bring in a center fielder, names like Eric Byrnes, Kenny Lofton, Ken Griffey Jr., Ryan Freel,Torii Hunter, Matt Lawton, Joey Gathright, and Juan Pierre might be available. Pierre and Griffey are players to which the Sox have been linked in the past. Another option would be to shift Scott Podsednik to center and bring in a left fielder like Alfonso Soriano, Carl Crawford, Pat Burrell, Raul Ibanez, Luis Gonzalez, Jose Cruz Jr., Cliff Floyd, or Shannon Stewart.
Jon Garland Re-Signs With White Sox
A Bruce Levine radio report on ESPN Radio 1000 indicates that Jon Garland has re-signed with the White Sox for three years, $29MM. The contract is backloaded: $7MM in 2006, $10MM in 2007, and $12MM in 2008. The contract has a no-trade provision for 2006 only, so the Sox have flexibility if they don’t want to be on the hook for the final $22MM.
The deal is another excellent move by GM Kenny Williams. With any type of decent showing in 2006, Garland stood to command a five or six year deal averaging as much as $11MM annually. Perhaps the the 26 year-old simply wanted security and doesn’t expect to repeat his 2005.
The move would likely lead to a trade of Jose Contreras unless he settles for a similar contract. There has been some speculation that the Cardinals might be interested. Given that Kenny Williams is on good terms with Walt Jocketty and they speak about players regularly, it’s entirely feasible.
Astros Update: Garland, Garciaparra
Good stuff today from my main Astros guy.
First off, the Astros are talking to the White Sox about what it would take to acquire Jon Garland. It’s well known that Garland is on the market, and the Astros do have some interesting young arms that are sure to come up in the discussion. Southpaw Troy Patton had a nice run in high Class A this year, and righty Jason Hirsh righted the ship at Double A Corpus Christi. Both pitchers are very highly regarded by Baseball America. Assuming a well-rested Roger Clemens rejoins the Astros in June, the team could once again rest its playoff hopes on starting pitching.
My source also mentioned that Nomar Garciaparra has narrowed his suitors down to the Dodgers and Astros. I admit, the Astros didn’t cross my mind back in September as a possible destination for the game’s current best available free agent (Clemens excluded). I still think a two-year deal is in order.
White Sox Interested In Blalock?
In today’s Chicago Tribune, Phil Rogers lays out some options for the White Sox to further bolster their club. According to Rogers:
"The most transparent scenarios are a starter and Joe Crede to Texas for a package fronted by left-handed-hitting third baseman Hank Blalock (signed for a highly reasonable $13.7 million for the next three years with a $6.2 million option in 2009); a starter and Juan Uribe to Baltimore for Miguel Tejada—not that likely—or a starter to Baltimore for a package of young talent in a deal that makes Tejada happier about staying put.
When Williams trades one of his starters, then judge how the return stacks up against Young, not the starter traded.
Young for Blalock?
Williams’ cell phone ought to be shipped to Cooperstown if he can pull that one off."
While Garland has more of a future ahead of him, Contreras may be easier to trade. The Cuban is 34 years old, a number in which I don’t have full confidence. His contract demands won’t be as prohibitive as Garland’s. Garland is a more verified 26 years of age, so he’ll want a deal twice as long as Contreras’s. Garland is a year younger than Barry Zito, and may be a comparable pitcher despite Zito’s track record and reputation. If a 28 year-old injury prone A.J. Burnett is worth five years and $55MM, doesn’t that make Zito and Garland worth even more?
I imagine Zito and Garland could each land six-year deals through free agency. Their agents will probably start the negotiations at seven years. Garland could get 6/66 and Zito 6/72. Any team trading for one of these starters will probably want some sort of contract agreement in place before doing so. After all, the purpose of acquiring Garland or Zito is mainly to gain an exclusive chance to negotiate before the pitcher hits free agency.
Phil Rogers’s Texas Rangers scenario is a good one, given that GM Jon Daniels at least entertained offering Burnett a huge contract. The Rangers sorely lack starting pitching depth, and Hank Blalock is very expendable. Would Jon Garland and his sinker be a good fit pitching the next six years in Texas? Not really. Despite a big reduction in his overall home run rate this year, he was still right at league average in that department. His rate was higher at home, of course, and it would remain high at Ameriquest.
The average groundball to flyball ratio in the American League was 1.59 in 2005. Garland’s 1.82 mark isn’t anything special despite his sinker. Garland’s main asset is that he’s durable, making at least 32 starts in each of the last four seasons. He’s never had the pressure of being anything close to the ace of a staff, and he’s had exactly one above average season. For Daniels to swap his best trading chip in Blalock for essentially six expensive years of Garland is certainly a risky proposition.
I can’t agree with Phil Rogers when he says Kenny Williams’s cell phone should go to Cooperstown for a Garland-Blalock trade. While Blalock is young and powerful, he’s obviously been greatly aided by playing in Ameriquest. He’d have that same crutch in U.S. Cellular, but is that an improvement over Joe Crede? Crede was worth one more win than Blalock in 2005, something I hope Kenny Williams is aware of.
A better swap for the Sox might be Jose Contreras for Phillies left fielder Pat Burrell. Burrell is 29 and probably has a few good seasons left in him. He knows how to draw walks, and could hit 40 HR with U.S. Cellular as a home park. Scott Podsednik would look a lot better coming off the bench than starting at a power position. Burrell has $36.5MM left on his contract over the next three years, so the Phils might have to send over $10MM to make the deal work. A swap involving Garland and Carl Crawford could also make sense, if the D-Rays think they can compete in 2007.