Roy Oswalt’s Name Enters The Fray
Here’s a new one: could Roy Oswalt be traded in the next 18 hours?
According to the Baltimore Sun:
"Several industry sources confirmed the Orioles and Astros are negotiating dealing Tejada for third baseman Morgan Ensberg, shortstop Adam Everett and Oswalt, 28, who has already won 91 major-league games."
The O’s have said they are looking for established Major Leaguers in return for their superstar shortstop, and Oswalt fits the bill. Baltimore would have to have competitive designs for the 2007 season, as Oswalt is a free agent after that.
According to Value Over Replacement Player, Oswalt has been the fourth best pitcher in the league this season. Last year he ranked fifth in VORP. It’s tough to see how the Astros would win this year with no dependable starters behind Roger Clemens. Perhaps a Rodrigo Lopez type pitcher would come to Houston in the unlikely event Oswalt is dealt.
Miguel Tejada Trade Update
Next up, Miggy. Tejada got cold feet yesterday, saying that he wanted to stay in Baltimore and didn’t want to move to third base.
Also, the Orioles have rejected the offer of Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar. Seems foolish. According to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun:
"If the Angels added another prospect to their package of Santana and Aybar, like possibly first base prospect Casey Kotchman, the trade could be completed. It is believed that the Angels’ top two offensive prospects – Double-A shortstop Brandon Wood and second baseman Howie Kendrick – are not available."
Angelos! We are talking about a young, established, effective starter in Santana. Don’t let this one slip away. Jorge Arangure Jr. of the Washington Post adds Nick Adenhart‘s name to the mix as the possible third player coming from L.A. My Angels source had named Adenhart as an untouchable player back on July 13th.
The Astros came in with a fairly weak offer of Morgan Ensberg, Adam Everett, and Fernando Nieve, as Will Carroll mentioned yesterday. Zrebiec tells us that Baltimore turned this one down but is still talking with Tim Purpura. Zrebiec calls Houston one of the favorites at this point.
The Rangers are in the game with Hank Blalock and prospects available, which would create a logjam at third for the Orioles. The Dodgers are offering Cesar Izturis and prospects, and Rafael Furcal‘s name has come up as well.
Carroll: Final Offers Made On Tejada
In his the latest Will’s Mill, Will Carroll indicates that the Astros and Angels have put in their final bids for Miguel Tejada. He also mentions that the Astros may turn to Julio Lugo if they can’t get Tejada. In that case they’d have to compete with the Blue Jays. Lugo was released by the Astros in 2003 by Gerry Hunsicker. Chuck LaMar was a bad GM, but you have to give him credit for the Lugo signing and the Kazmir deal. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while, right?
Carroll also tells us that not much is leaking out of Boston’s front office, so reporters are left to connect the dots with info from other teams. He leaves us with hope for some action soon enough:
"One of my best sources says the first of the Red Sox deals will happen this afternoon."
Rosenthal: Angels, Astros Make Tejada Offers
Ken Rosenthal’s got the scoop on a sweet offer made to the Orioles for Miguel Tejada: starter Ervin Santana and shortstop Erick Aybar.
The Orioles, characteristically an indecisive team, need to pounce on this offer. Baltimore will not be ready to compete in the AL East for several years, and prime young pitching isn’t offered up every day. Put Santana under Leo Mazzone’s tutelage and he could blossom into a true ace. And Aybar, while overshadowed by the Halos’ other infield prospects, looks to be an above average regular for many years. Not surprising to see Aybar used as a trading chip, but I didn’t expect the Angels to offer up Santana.
As far as the Astros, Rosenthal just states that "prime Major League pieces" were offered. He also mentions the Tigers and Dodgers as players.
Carroll On Tejada-Astros Discussions
Baseball Prospectus author Will Carroll has opened up Will’s Mill for the weekend, and he’ll be burning up the phone lines fishing for all sorts of good trade rumors.
Today he mentions an offer Tim Purpura has given to the Orioles for Miguel Tejada: Adam Everett, Morgan Ensberg, and Fernando Nieve. According to Carroll, Tim Purpura is focused on Tejada and is being urged by Roger Clemens to go get him.
In Everett, the Orioles would be acquiring the game’s best defensive shortstop. His hitting, at .241/.300/.327 this year, lags far behind the average AL shortstop. The average AL shortstop is hitting .286/.342/.423, similar to the work of Eric Chavez or A.J. Pierzysnki this year.
On the 10th of June, Ensberg bruised his shoulder diving for a foul ball. He was hitting .256/.380/.562 at that point, though he hadn’t done much in May or June. In Ensberg’s 18 games after the shoulder bruise, he hit just .158/.422/.263. He drew plenty of walks but the power that resulted in 36 HR last year had vanished. Ensberg took live batting practice yesterday for the first time since being placed on the DL on July 10th.
Nieve, 24, has a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider. He was just sent down to Triple A a week ago because of Brandon Backe, but had been demoted to the bullpen upon Roger Clemens‘s return in late June. It’s just a 15 inning sample, but Nieve did pretty well as a reliever: 8.2 K/9, 2.94 ERA, 1.17 WHIP. As a starter he had a 5.6 K/9, 4.67 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP. It is a fact that many pitchers add several miles per hour to their fastball by switching to relief, and Nieve’s two plus pitches make it easy to envision him as a future closer or top set-up man.
Trade Rumor Roundup: 11 Days Left
Let’s see what we’ve got churning in the rumor mill this morning.
Shea Hillenbrand, a player well-liked by his teammates, was designated for assignment last night. Kind of reminds me of the Jose Guillen situation a couple of years ago. Despite the unpleasantness, Bill Stoneman still managed to turn Guillen into Juan Rivera and Maicer Izturis. Let’s see how J.P Ricciardi does now that manager John Gibbons has forced him into this situation. As we told you a couple of days ago, Gibbons may follow Hillenbrand out the door. More on this situation in a bit.
A Reds message board rumor has Ian Kinsler going to Cincy and Todd Coffey heading to Texas, among some other components. I don’t know if this has any credence to it, just throwing it out there. Doesn’t seem logical to me.
The Jeff Keppinger for Ruben Gotay deal is official. Score one for Omar Minaya. In other Royals news, the Royals Authority advises fans not to panic about Luke Hochevar.
We saw what the Tigers would have to give up for Alfonso Soriano. Apparently, to get Bobby Abreu they’d have to surrender Marcus Thames, Zach Miner, and a lot of money. I’ll take option A.
Looking for an aging slugger who can maybe still hit lefties? Sammy Sosa is again making noise about playing again. This is not good for baseball.
Halos Heaven, a blog I know to have good sources, reports that the Orioles want the Angels to have Miguel Tejada. Orlando Cabrera and J.C. Romero could be part of a package.
Word on the street is that Baseball Prospectus injury analyst Will Carroll is in talks with ESPN about a possible job.
A TV program encouraging fans to come and boo Dusty Baker? C’mon, don’t kick a man when he’s down.
RotoAuthority looks for the game’s true .300 hitters.
Astros Talking About Miguel Tejada
MLBTradeRumors has learned that the Astros are in talks with Baltimore for Miguel Tejada. I don’t have much more detail than that, but it comes from a trusted source. Houston has been reluctant to offer up outfielder Hunter Pence, who currently has 22 home runs in Double A. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Astros previously expressed interest back in January.
A couple more tasty Tejada nuggets: The Reds kicked the tires on the superstar shortstop, but a deal couldn’t be completed without including stud pitcher Homer Bailey. In my opinion, if the Reds are really going for the gold this year, they should’ve pulled the trigger. Also, the reason the Angels are resisting a Tejada deal: Mike Scioscia. Scioscia doesn’t want Tejada bringing his…influence…into the clubhouse.
Angels Buzz
All sorts of good info coming from my Angels guy:
The Halos were recently close to a fairly big trade, but pulled back at the last minute. It may have been the much discussed Adam Kennedy for Shea Hillenbrand deal, but another one that was rumored to be close was Alfonso Soriano for Erick Aybar and Joe Saunders. The Soriano deal included a component where Jose Molina ended up a Yankee.
Now that Kendry Morales heated up and is holding his own in the middle of the L.A. lineup, the team plans on waiting until the All-Star break to make their move.
Also, word is that Arte Moreno has greenlighted Bill Stoneman for more salary room. Moreno craves Manny Ramirez or Miguel Tejada, someone who can truly make a difference of several wins for the Angels.
Finally, I’m told that Darin Erstad is "probably done for the season."
Tejada Could Still Be Dealt By April
We thought the Miguel Tejada rumors had died down. He seemed fairly content, and said all the right things. However, Daily Herald columnist Barry Rozner has reignited the Miggy hot stove talk.
In Washington DC to cover the White Sox ceremony, Rozner ran into all sorts of DC media types. According to Rozner:
"They’re hearing the Orioles would love to move the unhappy Tejada out of Baltimore before the season even begins."
He adds that he expects Tejada to be moved before the season starts or right before the July trading deadline. As a refresher, MLBTradeRumors has reported that the Red Sox, Cubs, White Sox, and Astros have all been involved in talks for Tejada this offseason.
New Red Sox shortstop Alex Gonzalez can still be cut by March 15th, in which case Boston would owe him $500,000. The Cubs seem quite likely to give Ronny Cedeno his shot, though he’d probably be part of any package for Tejada.
The White Sox have previously offered Juan Uribe, Jose Contreras, and a prospect for Tejada, but the clubs could not agree on the last prospect. Recent word is that the team plans to wait until after the World Baseball Classic before trading Contreras. Houston has some top-notch pitching prospects in the fold, so look for them to re-enter the fray once the Clemens saga is resolved.
WEEI’s Tejada Rumor Making Rounds
The Dennis and Callahan Show on WEEI 850 in Boston broke out an improbable-sounding trade rumor this morning. Here’s the idea:
Dodgers send: Derek Lowe, Hee Seop Choi
Red Sox send: David Wells, Alex Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester, Tony Graffanino
Orioles send: Miguel Tejada, Luis Matos
Dodgers receive: Wells, Graffanino, Matos
Red Sox receive: Tejada, Choi
Orioles receive: Lowe, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Lester
In my humble opinion, there’s about zero chance of a deal like this going down. Then why am I posting about it? For one thing, I’ve received a host of emails about the possibility. So it seems that the people want to discuss it. Secondly, plenty of these players are likely to be dealt, just not in this combination.
Is Derek Lowe on the block? Certainly. I know for a fact that the Cubs and Phillies have expressed interest in him. I’m fairly certain he wouldn’t represent a big gain for the Orioles, however. The Phils could still try to hammer something out to obtain Lowe.
Hee Seop Choi has nowhere to play on the Dodgers, and I mentioned before that I think the Devil Rays should make a play for him. However, they’ve added Russell Branyan as a corner guy so it seems less likely at this point. There isn’t much of a market for a first baseman, but Choi still deserves a chance.
Wells is certainly likely to be dealt, and the Dodgers are a viable candidate. I mentioned yesterday that the Mets could consider Boomer as well.
Without doing any research, I have a feeling that a team can’t sign a free agent and trade him immediately. That’s why the Alex Gonzalez thing seems way off to me. Plus, Boston seemed to be trying to strengthen their defense. That is supposedly where Gonzalez’s value lies.
The Red Sox won’t be trading Youkilis and Lester. They’re far too valuable as building blocks. Graffanino should be on the move, but that’s a minor deal.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Tejada dealt before the deadline, and a guy like Lester would have to be involved. There’s a fair chance Ronny Cedeno bombs and the Cubs try to re-engage the Orioles this summer. They’d be relying on the further development of minor leaguers to form an attractive package.
Matos, sure, he’ll end up somewhere. But the Dodgers don’t need him.