Odds and Ends: Ponson, Inge, Papelbon
Let’s round up some Monday morning links.
- The Cardinals are taking another look at Sidney Ponson. Insert your own punchline in the comments.
- Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun could see the O’s making a minor trade for a veteran second baseman if they acquire Ronny Cedeno but not Eric Patterson in a Brian Roberts deal with the Cubs.
- Brandon Inge is trying his best to talk his way out of town. The Dodgers’ recently reported nibble hasn’t been publicly shot down, so that’s a plus.
- South Side Sox thinks speedy infielder Eugenio Velez is the type of player the White Sox could desire for Joe Crede.
- Jonathan Papelbon wants $900K in his last year before arbitration eligibility. Ryan Howard set a scary precedent last year. If Papelbon doesn’t get offered something close, he’d rather make a statement and be renewed near the minimum.
- Buster Olney suggests Dan Johnson and Doug Mientkiewicz could be possibilities for the Mets in their quest for a backup first baseman. Olney speculated on Nick Johnson, Scott Hatteberg, Richie Sexson, Tony Clark, and Kevin Millar the day before.
Nick Johnson Readying For Spring Training
There’s quite a feature in yesterday’s Washington Post regarding Nick Johnson‘s return to action. It’s one of those feel-good pieces that documents his hardships and the tenacity with which he faced them. But apparently he has no remaining physical limitations, so he’ll get his shot in Spring Training.
How is this a trade rumor? Well, he’ll be competing with Dmitri Young for the starting first base gig. Both are signed through 2009, with roughly the same salaries. But there isn’t room for both of them on the Nats roster. Each has his pitfalls, making a trade difficult.
So what do you do if you’re Jim Bowden? Johnson is the team’s second highest-paid player, and Young is just a tick behind. Do you really let one of your top five highest paid players languish on the bench? A platoon doesn’t seem the answer. Young hit righties a ton last year, to the tune of a .903 OPS, while managing a .784 mark against lefties. This trend follows through his career. Johnson tends to destroy lefties and righties equally.
It’s hard not to give Johnson every shot to win the gig. He’s younger and has incredible plate discipline. We’re talking about one of the few guys in the league who can walk more than he strikes out. He was also a monster in his latest season, 2006, hitting .290/.428/.520 in 628 plate appearances. He walked 110 times that year, which is just an insane number.
But then where does that leave Young? This will definitely be a story to follow through Spring Training.
-Joe
Nick Johnson Signs Extension
Wondering why you had that empty feeling this weekend? I’m pretty sure it was because I briefly stopped churning out new content for you. But never fear, we’re fully moved into our condo and I’ll try to start writing regularly again between unpacking.
One of the weekend’s stories that I wanted to comment on was Jim Bowden’s signing of first baseman Nick Johnson. Six days ago, I remarked:
"My hunch is that the Nationals will re-sign him to a one or two year contract worth maybe $7MM annually. It doesn’t seem like a team would commit more than two years to a player who’s never healthy."
This Saturday, Johnson signed a three-year, $16.5MM pact. Given the huge discount, committing for that extra year isn’t a bad move. Compare the contract to PECOTA’s estimate of his worth for the next three years: $17,775,000. So Bowden saved over a million bucks even if Johnson can’t maintain his 2005 level. The upside is that there’s a very good chance he exceeds PECOTA’s projection entering his age 27 season. By my estimation, Johnson could easily be a $12-13MM player annually.
The signing could mean that 25 year-old first baseman Larry Broadway is available. Baseball America rates him as the Nationals’ 8th best prospect. Broadway stumbled a bit in 2005 due to a knee injury, but BA’s scouting report says he could still be a 30 HR player in the Majors one day.
Johnson’s contract extension also means that next year’s free agent class will lack an impact first baseman, assuming Derrek Lee re-signs.
MLB Free Agents 2007: Nick Johnson
On a slow trade rumor day, I figured it would be fun to take a good look at Nick Johnson. Johnson will be a free agent after the 2006 season, and his name was previously bandied about in a trade rumor involving the Red Sox. However, Nationals GM Jim Bowden has expressed a desire to re-sign his oft-injured first baseman.
Johnson is entering his age 28 season. Last year he set a professional career high in at-bats, with 453. He hit .289/.408/.479 with an extreme pitchers’ park as his home stadium. His OBP was ninth in baseball. Given his playing time and relatively mediocre slugging percentage, you might think Johnson isn’t a top ten 1B. Baseball Prospectus says think again – including defense, they ranked him as baseball’s 6th best first baseman by WARP in 2005. That’s ahead of players like Carlos Delgado and Richie Sexson.
According to Will Carroll, Johnson was sidelined by a bone bruise in his heel in 2005. Unlike his previous back problems, the bruise isn’t expected to bother him in 2006. This is Johnson’s time to shine before he hits free agency. My hunch is that the Nationals will re-sign him to a one or two year contract worth maybe $7MM annually. It doesn’t seem like a team would commit more than two years to a player who’s never healthy. In addition to the Red Sox, the Devil Rays have expressed interest in Johnson in the past. Don’t be surprised if the Indians and Giants make a play for him this summer as well.
Projection wise, PECOTA thinks Johnson will hit .265/.385/.436 this season and be worth a little more than four wins. ZiPS expects more: .283/.402/.475. Ron Shandler projects .279/.385/.467. My projection is a .284 average with 20 HR and 66 RBIs in 412 ABs. For you concerned fantasy geeks out there, Johnson whiffs a tad too much to hit in the .290s. I doubt his employer cares about that in real life though.
It’s conceivable that Johnson could turn himself into a $10MM player with a single fully healthy season, taking a page from J.D. Drew. He was worth a lot more than that in 2005, and should be a hot commodity at the deadline. Problem is, the Nats don’t have anyone in the system to replace him.