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NL Central Notes: Betts, Brewers, Venable, Tigers, Pirates

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Could Mookie Betts have blossomed to stardom in a Brewers uniform?  It could have been a reality if former Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin had had his way, as he tried to acquire Betts from the Red Sox in 2013 in exchange for closer Francisco Rodriguez, according to MLB.com’s Adam Berry and Adam McCalvy.  As a fifth-round pick for Boston in the 2011 draft, “Mookie sort of went under the radar if you went by the so-called MLB Pipeline or whatever.  I don’t think at the time he was in their top 10-15 prospects,” Melvin said.  Both the Brewers’ analytics and scouting departments agreed on Betts’ potential, however, so the pitch was made to then-Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington, who wisely declined the offer.

Betts was already in the midst of a big season at the A-ball levels in 2013, and Cherington recalls that by season’s end, Betts’ “name was the first one” mentioned by other clubs in trade negotiations.  “Doug Melvin was the first to ask, so I always give Doug credit.  He was the first one to ask for him,” Cherington said.

While Milwaukee fans take a moment to sigh ruefully, let’s look at some other items from around the NL Central…

  • Cubs third base coach Will Venable spoke with the Tigers about their managerial vacancy, NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer reports.  Venable was first cited as a potential candidate for the Tigers job back in September, and Venable has also recently interviewed with the Red Sox about their managerial job.  Beyond the Red Sox and Tigers, “other clubs also have sought the Cubs’ permission to talk with Venable about other, non-managerial openings in their organizations,” Wittenmyer writes.  A veteran of nine MLB seasons, Venable has spent the last three years in Wrigleyville as a special assistant to Theo Epstein, as well as a first base and third base coach.  This is the second straight winter that Venable has been a popular candidate, as the Cubs considered him for their own manager’s job last offseason, and the Astros and Giants also interviewed him for their managerial openings.
  • The Pirates have 19 players eligible for arbitration this offseason, the most of any team in baseball.  At least some of those names won’t be back in Pittsburgh in 2021, as The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel thinks as many as six players could be non-tendered and several others are trade candidates.  Interestingly, Biertempfel cites Trevor Williams as a potential non-tender, on the heels of a season that saw Williams get off to a good start but then struggle to finish with a 6.18 ERA over 55 1/3 innings, with a league-high 15 homers allowed.  Williams received some trade interest from at least one team (the Blue Jays) back in August, so it’s possible Toronto or another club could have some talks with the Pirates before the non-tender deadline.  Williams had a pair of solid seasons in 2017-18 and is entering his age-29 season with two years of team control remaining.  MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Williams to earn between $3.2MM and $4.6MM through the arbitration process this winter.

Blue Jays Reportedly Considering Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl

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The Blue Jays picked up another victory Monday, defeating the Rays by a 6-4 count to improve to 14-13 at almost the halfway point of the season. Few expected the Blue Jays to push for a playoff spot this season, but they’re a mere two games back of wild-card position in the American League. With the trade deadline just a week away, Toronto could wind up as a buyer. Indeed, general manager Ross Atkins said last week that the Jays are aiming to improve their rotation, and Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the team’s “considering” a pair of Pirates right-handers in Trevor Williams and Chad Kuhl.

Toronto’s rotation has taken multiple hits in recent days, as Nate Pearson, Matt Shoemaker and Trent Thornton have gone on the injured list. As a result, Hyun Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson are the only sure things in the club’s rotation, though Ryu’s the lone member of the trio who has offered a blend of strong bottom-line production and encouraging peripherals so far this season.

In Williams or Kuhl, the Blue Jays would land a hurler capable of contributing to their rotation beyond this season. Both are controllable for multiple years, but Williams is the more proven of the pair. The 28-year-old was a solid starter for the Pirates from 2017-18 before falling off last year, when he logged 145 2/3 innings of 5.38 ERA/5.12 FIP ball, but seems to be amid a rebound campaign. Williams has made five starts in 2020 and posted 24 1/3 innings of 3.70 ERA/4.21 FIP ball with 8.51 K/9 and 2.96 BB/9. He’s on a prorated $2.825MM salary this year and has another two arbitration-eligible seasons remaining.

Kuhl also has two arb years left after 2020, though he’s currently earning a less expensive salary than Williams (a prorated $840K). The 27-year-old is off to a decent start this season after missing all of 2019 as a result of Tommy John surgery. Kuhl has made five appearances (three starts) in the early going, averaged upward of 94 mph on his fastball and registered a 2.84 ERA/4.98 FIP with 9.0 K/9 and 3.32 BB/9 over 19 innings.

Neither Williams nor Kuhl would command a haul for the Pirates, who are well out of playoff contention. As Morosi notes, though, the Blue Jays could make for a logical trade partner because of the familiarity first-year Bucs general manager Ben Cherington has with Toronto’s farm system. Before taking over the Pirates, Cherington was a promiment part of the Jays’ front office.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Pirates Activate Trevor Williams, Option Mitch Keller

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The Pirates announced today that they have activated right-hander Trevor Williams. To open an active roster spot, the club optioned fellow righty Mitch Keller.

Williams ended up missing just over a month of action with a side strain. Before going on the injured list on May 17, the 27-year-old Williams pitched to a matching 3.33 ERA/3.33 FIP with 7.0 K/9, 1.67 BB/9 and .67 HR/9 in 54 innings. Williams, Joe Musgrove and the currently injured pair of Jordan Lyles and Jameson Taillon have been the Pirates’ most productive starters this season. Lyles, out since June 10 with left hamstring tightness, will make a minor league rehab start Sunday, Adam Berry of MLB.com tweets.

Pittsburgh turned to Keller, 23, in hopes the premier prospect would help provide answers for an injury-laden rotation. Instead, Keller has allowed 14 earned runs on 21 hits and six walks through 12 innings and three starts thus far. But Keller was fairly effective in a loss to Detroit on Tuesday, when he yielded two earned runs (four total) on four hits and two walks in five innings, and has already notched 15 strikeouts in his big league career.

Pirates’ Trevor Williams Nearing Return

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The Pirates have had to go almost a month without right-hander Trevor Williams, who landed on the injured list May 17 with a right side strain. Williams will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Indianapolis on Thursday, though, and could slot back into Pittsburgh’s rotation as early as next Tuesday, Adam Berry of MLB.com reports.

Even with the injury factored in, the 27-year-old Williams has perhaps been the Pirates’ best starter in 2019. Before going on the IL, Williams totaled nine starts and 54 innings – good for a six-frame average – and pitched to a matching 3.33 ERA/3.33 FIP with 7.0 K/9, 1.67 BB/9 and .67 HR/9. It continued an underrated run of production for Williams, who combined for a 3.49 ERA/3.68 FIP over 56 starts and 309 1/3 innings from 2017-18.

In addition to Williams’ forthcoming return, the Pirates will soon welcome back fellow righty Jordan Lyles, per Berry. Lyles just hit the IL on the 10th with left hamstring tightness, though it appears he’ll only miss the minimum 10 days. So far in 2019, the 28-year-old has performed like one of the top bargain signings of the offseason. Since inking a one-year, $2.05MM contract during the winter, Lyles has notched a 3.64 ERA/3.63 FIP with 9.23 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and .98 HR/9 in 12 starts and 64 1/3 frames.

Of the 11 pitchers who have started for the Pirates this year, Williams, Lyles, Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon are the only ones who have posted average or better numbers. Taillon has been down since the beginning of May with a right flexor strain, however, and Berry reports there’s still no timetable for his return. Meanwhile, Chris Archer has come up well short of expectations, Steven Brault has battled control problems, and opposing offenses hammered high-end prospect Mitch Keller during his first two starts.

Pirates Place Trevor Williams On IL, Outright Jacob Stallings

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The Pirates announced a series of roster moves this evening. Starter Trevor Williams is going on the 10-day injured list with a right side strain, creating a need for pitching reinforcements.

Righty Clay Holmes was recalled. He’ll join Geoff Hartlieb in ascending to the active roster. With a need for one additional active roster spot and one additional 40-man spot, the Bucs optioned righty Richard Rodriguez and outrighted catcher Jacob Stallings (who had been on the IL with a neck injury).

There’s no clear indication yet as to the timeline for Williams. It’s unfortunate timing for both player and team; he was off to a strong start after an excellent 2018 campaign. Through 54 innings this year, Williams carries a 3.33 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9.

East Notes: G. Sanchez, Red Sox, Marlins, Pirates, Phillies, O’s

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This season hasn’t gone according to plan for Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez, leading Joel Sherman of the New York Post to wonder if the club could target Miami’s J.T. Realmuto or another starting-caliber backstop during the winter. It doesn’t seem that’s going to happen, though, as Yankees general manager Brian Cashman suggested to Sherman that he hasn’t lost any confidence in Sanchez. “If you are asking if [Sanchez] is a championship-caliber catcher moving forward, the answer is yes,” Cashman said. “Despite circumstances that have played out this year, we will stay with it and hopefully be rewarded for it.” After his bat helped propel him to elite catcher status from 2016-17, Sanchez has slashed an underwhelming .184/.280/.404 in 304 plate appearances this season. On the other side, the 25-year-old has drawn plenty of criticism for defensive miscues, including for his work in Oakland this past Wednesday. Still, it’s easy to see why Cashman remains bullish on Sanchez. With a .189 batting average on balls in play and a massive gap between his real wOBA (.298) and expected wOBA (.366), Sanchez has been one of the game’s unluckiest hitters in 2018, and he has still managed 15 home runs and a .221 ISO. Defensively, Sanchez’s issues may be a tad overblown, evidenced in part by the above-average marks he has earned from StatCorner.

More from the East Coast…

  • Red Sox reliever Matt Barnes is out indefinitely with left hip inflammation, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports. With Boston all but locked into the top seed in the American League, Barnes’ loss isn’t much of a blow now. But it could be if the injury continues to linger into the playoffs, as Barnes leads Red Sox relievers in holds (25) and strikeouts per nine (14.19). He has also thrown the second-most innings (58 1/3) of anyone in Boston’s bullpen and logged an impressive 3.39 ERA/2.71 FIP.
  • With righty Trevor Williams on a roll for the Pirates, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald revisits the 2015 trade in which the Marlins sent the hurler to Pittsburgh for fellow righty Richard Mitchell and the right to hire pitching guru Jim Benedict from the Bucs. Williams ranked among the Marlins’ top prospects at the time, making the deal look good for Pittsburgh. It looks even better now, given that the 26-year-old Williams has allowed a combined four earned runs over his past nine starts – a 54 2/3-inning span – to improve his ERA/FIP to 3.15/4.16 across 148 2/3 frames this season. Considering Williams’ current performance and his affordable team control through 2022, not to mention what the Marlins got in the trade, losing him looks rather regrettable for the Fish. Former Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria expected Benedict to fix the Marlins’ pitching staff, per Spencer. It didn’t happen, however, and Benedict’s now with the Cubs. Mitchell, meanwhile, was a non-prospect who never threw a pitch with the Miami organization and hasn’t played professionally since the end of his Pirates tenure.
  • Phillies outfielder Roman Quinn broke one of the toes on his right foot, but it’s an injury he can play through, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia was among those to report. Quinn suffered the injury on a hit by pitch on Wednesday and hasn’t played since, though manager Gabe Kapler said the Phillies “have every assurance that this injury is a tolerance issue and when he’s ready to play, he’s good to go.” Nevertheless, as Salisbury details, it adds to a laundry list of injuries for the 25-year-old Quinn – who has still recorded good numbers since debuting last season. Over 153 major league PAs, including 84 this year, Quinn has hit .307/.371/.455 (121 wRC+) with 12 stolen bases.
  • The Orioles plan to re-sign pending free-agent catcher Martin Cervenka, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Cervenka joined the Orioles via the Giants in the minor league phase of last year’s Rule 5 draft, and has since amassed “lots of supporters” within the O’s organization, Kubatko writes. The 26-year-old may even debut in the majors’ next season, as Kubatko adds that Cervenka could have a shot to emerge as the Orioles’ backup catcher in 2019. In doing so, he’d become the first native of the Czech Republic to ever play in the majors. The highest level Cervenka has reached to this point is Double-A, where he put up a .258/.317/.457 line with 15 home runs in 375 PAs this season.

Pirates Notes: Deadline, Rotation, Middle Infield, Bullpen

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The Pirates have fallen to earth since a solid start and now sit a game below .500 (35-36), but general manager Neal Huntington told reporters before Sunday’s loss to the Reds that he still has a buyer’s mindset as the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline approaches. “We’ve had more conversations about adding players at this point in time than we’ve had about subtracting players,” Huntington said (via Adam Berry of MLB.com), adding that “our intent is to continue to give this club every chance in the world to show us that we can continue to do the things that we did the first six weeks, eight weeks to put ourselves nine games over and that we can dig out of this hole that we’ve dug ourselves over this tough stretch of 30 days.” The Pirates are sitting in fourth place in a tough NL Central, seven games behind first-place Milwaukee, but they’re only 3 1/2 out of a wild-card spot. With several playoff-contending teams on their schedule in the next several weeks, the Bucs will have an opportunity to make up ground on their competitors and end up as buyers. But if the Pirates drop out of the hunt pre-deadline, they could ultimately market some of their shorter-term players, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported this week.

More from Pittsburgh…

  • Right-hander Trevor Williams has scuffled of late, as he recorded a 5.51 ERA in May and then allowed seven earned runs in six innings in his only June start thus far. Nevertheless, there aren’t any plans to pull him from Pittsburgh’s rotation and replace him with impressive rookie Nick Kingham, who’s currently in the minors, Huntington said (via Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). “Our focus with Trevor right now is to get that secondary stuff back to being effective, to get the four- and the two-seam fastball command back to being effective, and [we] believe that we’re going to be able to do that and work from there,” stated Huntington, who noted it’s unfortunate for Kingham that “we’ve got six guys that we believe can help us win major league games as starting pitchers right now.” In Huntington’s estimation, that group includes the 26-year-old Williams, who, to his credit, has been a respectable starter since debuting in 2016. Williams has combined for 216 innings of 4.15 ERA ball and posted 6.6 K/9 against 2.95 BB/9 in 40 starts.
  • The Pirates are considering promoting middle infield prospects Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer, but call-ups don’t seem imminent, Brink suggests. Starting middle infielders Josh Harrison (second base) and Jordy Mercer (shortstop) have been reasonably effective, and Huntington expressed confidence in reserve Sean Rodriguez, even though he has hit just .159/.286/299 in 126 plate appearances. Playing time would be hard to come by for the prospects, then, and the Pirates don’t want to promote them unless they’re going to see regular action. Both Newman, MLB.com’s seventh-ranked Pirates prospect, and Kramer (No. 8) have logged above-average production at the Triple-A level this season. Neither Newman nor Kramer is on the Bucs’ already full 40-man roster, though, which stands as another roadblock in the way of the “Seinfeld” tandem.
  • More from Brink, who writes that Huntington took some of the blame Sunday for the woes of Pittsburgh’s bullpen. “The general manager didn’t give the manager a legitimate eighth-inning guy or seventh-inning guy, speaking in conventional terms,” said Huntington, whose team entered Sunday tied for 25th in the majors in bullpen ERA (4.56). As Brink points out, the Pirates’ season-opening plan to have Michael Feliz and George Kontos set up closer Felipe Vazquez didn’t work. Feliz, whom the Bucs acquired over the winter from Houston as part of the teams’ Gerrit Cole trade, has registered a 6.18 ERA over 27 2/3 innings. And Kontos managed a subpar 5.03 mark in 19 2/3 frames before the Pirates released him last month.

NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Iglesias, Williams, Kirby

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The Cardinals announced on Wednesday that they’ve promoted director of international operations Moises Rodriguez to the position of assistant general manager. Rodriguez has spent 10 years working in the Cardinals’ front office, and the team notes within its press release that he was “instrumental” in signing and developing prospects such as Carlos Martinez, Alex Reyes, Magneuris Sierra and the late Oscar Taveras. Born in Puerto Rico, Rodriguez explained in discussing his new title (video link via the Cardinals, on Twitter) that he grew up in New York City cheering for the Cardinals while largely surrounded by Mets fans. Newly promoted GM Michael Girsch says that Rodriguez has done “an amazing job” building out the team’s international department, adding that Rodriguez’s views at times differ from his own, which is “ideal” and “makes everyone better.” The Cardinals did not name a new director of international operations and expect to do so “early this offseason,” per their release.

More from the NL Central…

  • While many (myself included) have assumed that Reds closer Raisel Iglesias will opt into arbitration this offseason, as is his contractual right under the terms of his seven-year $27MM contract, Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer explains that the scenario isn’t as likely as it seems. Iglesias’ deal with the Reds allows him to opt into arbitration in any offseason in which he is eligible, meaning he’ll have the opportunity to opt into arbitration next winter even if he forgoes that opportunity this winter. Under the current terms of his deal, Iglesias is guaranteed $4.5MM in 2018, Buchanan notes. While he could potentially make a bit more than that as a first-time arb player on the heels of a strong season as a closer, he’d be forfeiting the remaining $10MM on his contract to do so. By waiting until next offseason, he’d sacrifice only minimal earning power and protect himself against an injury or unexpected decline in 2018.
  • Right-hander Trevor Williams has somewhat quietly made a strong case for a spot in the Pirates’ 2018 rotation, writes MLB.com’s Adam Berry. The Bucs are banking on Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon and Ivan Nova to hold down the top three spots in the rotation, and Williams’ quality run over his past 24 outings has perhaps earned him the next spot in the starting five. In that time, he’s worked to a 3.65 ERA with 7.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 49.9 percent ground-ball rate. He’s averaged 5 2/3 innings per start in that time, so the Pirates would probably prefer to see him work deeper into games with greater frequency, but Williams certainly looks like a viable rotation piece moving forward.
  • Brewers left-handed pitching prospect Nathan Kirby, who hasn’t pitched in two years due to a pair of elbow surgeries, is back on the mound in the team’s instructional league, tweets Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The former University of Virginia ace was at one point a projected top five pick in the 2015 draft but slipped to the Brewers at No. 40 overall that year due to injury concerns. Tommy John surgery cost Kirby the 2016 season, and he had a second elbow procedure earlier this year. While it’s hardly the start to his pro career that Kirby had envisioned, he’s not yet 24 years of age, so there’s certainly time for him to get back on track.

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