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“Why do you guys care about velo such much, man?” Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon asked reporters last week.  Fastball velocity continues to hold great appeal to fans, reporters, and baseball executives, especially with so much data readily available.  Beyond the pure excitement of watching Yordano Ventura or Stephen Strasburg pitch, fastball velocity is often an indicator of success.  With that in mind, here’s a look at the currently velocity leaders among those eligible for free agency after this season.

Relievers

1. Kyle Farnsworth – 94.2
2. Andrew Miller – 94.2
3. David Robertson – 94.2
4. Chris Perez – 93.8
5. Joba Chamberlain – 93.8
6. Matt Albers – 93.8 (club option)
7. Carlos Marmol – 93.6
8. Jim Johnson – 93.4
9. Matt Lindstrom – 93.2
10. Brian Wilson – 92.6 (player option)

Starters

1. Brandon Morrow – 93.5 (club option)
2. Felipe Paulino – 93.0 (club option)
3. Johnny Cueto – 92.9 (club option)
4. Ervin Santana – 92.4
5. Dustin McGowan – 92.3 (club option)
6. Jason Hammel – 92.1
7. Jorge de la Rosa – 92.1
8. Josh Beckett – 91.9
9. James Shields – 91.8
10. Francisco Liriano – 91.8

Note that the game’s hardest throwers are generally not available in free agency, as they’re also among the younger pitchers.  Farnsworth, 38, is the hardest-throwing free agent but ranks 43rd overall among all pitchers.

Last year, 56 position players with less than six years of Major League service time were worth at least 2.5 wins above replacement.  Of those, 21 have contract extensions that bought out or gave a club option on at least one free agent year.  That comes to 37.5%.  As popular as extensions are for above-average young position players, 62.5% of our sample has not delayed free agency.  Let’s take a closer look.

Of the 35 players who do not have an extension, eight are represented by the Boras Corporation, including Chris Davis, Bryce Harper, Desmond Jennings, Eric Hosmer, and Pedro Alvarez.  Boras tends to encourage his players to go year-to-year and reach free agency as early as possible.  What about the other 27 players?

• Josh Donaldson, Athletics:  Certainly players can and do sign long-term deals after just one elite season, which is what Donaldson has under his belt.  Last year was also Donaldson’s first full season as a regular, which at age 27 makes him a late bloomer in this group.  One other factor is that he changed agencies within the last few months.  Donaldson is off to a torrid start in 2014, increasing his price tag if he decides to do a deal after the season.
• Manny Machado, Orioles.  2014 was also Machado’s first full season as a regular, at age 20.  He suffered a torn knee ligament in September that required major surgery (his minor league rehab assignment began tonight), so it made sense to wait on exploring a deal.
• Ian Desmond, Nationals.  During the offseason, the Nationals proposed a multiyear deal to Desmond believed to be worth around $90MM, reported Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  Instead, a two-year deal was reached that did not affect Desmond’s path toward free agency.  One of Desmond’s agents, Doug Rogalski, told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that talks with the Nationals have been amicable.  Elvis Andrus’ eight-year, $120MM deal a year ago will be a factor in discussions.
• Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays.  Rasmus posted a 4.8 win season in 2013, but had been worth only 1.6 wins in the previous two seasons.  He’s had a couple of agency changes along the way, and is now months from becoming a free agent at age 28.
• Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks.  Parra generates much of his value defensively, and has a pair of Gold Gloves to prove it.  Defensive-minded players have started to see the dollars more, but offense still earns the big bucks in arbitration and free agency.
• Jason Castro, Astros.  The Astros have acknowledged some level of discussion involving a Castro extension, but it hasn’t happened yet.  There’s no indication as to how large of a gap the two sides face.
• Brandon Belt, Giants.  Belt posted a very strong 2013, but he’s scorching in 2014 with seven home runs in 92 plate appearances.  In February, Belt described talks with the Giants as “preliminary.”  The price has probably gone up since then.
• A.J. Pollock, Diamondbacks.  Pollock owed much of his value last year to defense, and with one year of service under his belt there’s no reason to rush to lock him up.
• Jed Lowrie, Athletics.  2013 was Lowrie’s first full, healthy season, and now he’s in his contract year.  The 30-year-old will be well-compensated if he posts another healthy campaign, more so if his stellar 2014 walk rate holds up to some degree.
• Chase Headley, Padres.  Headley is also in his contract year.  He had an MVP-caliber 2012 season, and while 2013 was good, it was a more defense-minded campaign.  Headley has had extension talks with the Padres for years, but he appears headed to free agency.
• Kyle Seager, Mariners.  Seager has posted two strong seasons for the Mariners, but it’s possible a gap in perceived value exists due to his pronounced home/road splits.
• Craig Gentry, Athletics.  Gentry has generated a lot of value defensively and has been something short of a regular, so he remains year-to-year.
• Jason Heyward, Braves.  Like Desmond, Heyward signed a two-year deal that did not delay free agency.  He was elite by WAR in 2012, but a top-five MVP finish always seem possible for the 24-year-old, and he hasn’t gotten there yet.
• Jean Segura, Brewers.  Segura’s breakout 2013 season led to extension talks, but agent Joe Klein told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, “With a guy this young, it’s hard to figure out what the right numbers would be.”
• Todd Frazier, Reds.  Frazier has posted a pair of solid seasons, but the Reds aren’t jumping to extend him after a .234/.314/.407 offensive line in 2013.
• Welington Castillo, Cubs.  As a player with one good year, the Cubs can afford to wait to see if Castillo is their catcher of the future.
• Mark Trumbo, Diamondbacks.  Trumbo may be year-to-year on account of being a one-dimensional player, though consistent power typically gets paid.
• There are 10 more players who were worth 2.0-2.5 wins in 2013 and have not signed extensions.  Some, like Juan Lagares and Gregor Blanco, haven’t established themselves as regulars.  Players like Leonys Martin, Brian Dozier, Josh Reddick, and Chris Johnson haven’t had extended success.  Others are good but not spectacular, like second basemen Neil Walker and Daniel Murphy.

Boras is a big reason many of the game’s best young position players don’t give up free agent years.  The other reasons are varied, with late bloomers, players affected by injury, inconsistent performers, and players who have short track records.  While it may not fit the narrative of baseball’s growing extension trend, one overarching theme may be that most of the game’s best young position players still prefer to avoid leaving money on the table to acquire long-term security.

Data from FanGraphs was used for this post.  If you’d like to explore this topic further, check out MLBTR’s Extension Tracker.  Please note:  Yasiel Puig was omitted due to the special circumstances with his seven-year contract. 

One-day leagues are one of the most exciting ways to play fantasy baseball.  For any given day of the MLB schedule, you can create a fantasy team and win huge cash prizes.  If you have $22 and love Major League Baseball, draft a one-day fantasy baseball team at DraftStreet.com for the games this Friday.  You could win a share of $100,000 with a massive first place prize of $20,000.

750 players will win cash on Friday and you can be one of them.  Simply pick one player from each of eight tiers.  Score the most fantasy points and find out if you win after the end of Friday’s final game.

How to enter this $100K DraftStreet Pick’em contest:

1. Sign up at DraftStreet.com.
2. Enter the MLB Pick’em Big Score for $22.
3. Save your MLB team by 6:55pm eastern time, Friday, April 25th.

Finish in the top 750 and you’ll double your money.  First place wins $20,000!  If this is your first time depositing at DraftStreet you will receive a 100% deposit bonus, up to $200 free.  Here are my picks:

Friday April 25th MLB Eligible Schedule:

Royals @ Orioles – 7:05pm ET
Angels @ Yankees – 7:05pm ET
Padres @ Nationals – 7:05pm ET
Red Sox @ Blue Jays – 7:07pm ET
Marlins @ Mets – 7:10pm ET
Reds @ Braves – 7:35pm ET
Rays @ White Sox – 8:10pm ET
Cubs @ Brewers – 8:10pm ET
Tigers @ Twins – 8:10pm ET
Athletics @ Astros – 8:10pm ET
Pirates @ Cardinals – 8:15pm ET
Phillies @ Diamondbacks – 9:40pm ET
Rangers @ Mariners – 10:10pm ET
Rockies @ Dodgers – 10:10pm ET
Indians @ Giants – 10:15pm ET

Draft your team now!

MLB Trade Rumors is back!  It’s been a trying several days for our website, as our blogging platform was subject to distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks.  We tried in vain all day yesterday to get MLBTR back online.  Ultimately, we were able to simply move up a planned change in blogging platforms by one day.  So, MLBTR is now operational on WordPress, hosted by WP Engine.  We appreciate your patience.

DDoS attacks involve sending huge amounts of traffic to websites or groups of websites in hopes of crashing them.  It’s not an issue of hacking, as nothing was broken into, but our blogging platform was flooded and knocked offline.  It’s a serious attack though, and doesn’t have a quick fix.  In this case, the goal of crashing our former blogging platform, TypePad, was apparently to extort money from them.  This post from Sarah Perez of TechCrunch has further details.  TypePad has been working round-the-clock to restore their websites.

Launching on WordPress one day early means we still have a few minor issues on the site, mainly a gap in our archive from March 13th through April 20th.  We’ve filled in all of Monday, April 21st with new posts, however, and will be writing new ones today as usual.

MLBTR is looking for additional moderators to read through comments and make sure that they're not in violation of our commenting policy.

It's not a paid position, but it will keep you connected to the latest trade and free agent rumors. If you're a frequent MLBTR commenter who can help us keep the comment section clean, send a short e-mail to mlbtrmods@gmail.com with the following: your username, the email (or other) account you use to comment on MLBTR, your availability, and a short explanation as to why you'd be a good fit. If you're responsible, respectful and interested in contributing at MLBTR, we want to hear from you.

This year's projected Super Two cutoff is two years, 128 days of service time — typically written as 2.128 — according to Ryan Galla of CAA Baseball (Twitter link). Before we get into the candidates to reach this status in 2014, here's a quick refresher on Super Two status for those who are unfamiliar with the term.

Players with at least three but less than six years of Major League service are considered arbitration eligible. Additionally, a player with at least two years but less than three is eligible for arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and ranks in the top 22 percent in total service in the two-to-three-years service class; these players are referred to as "Super Two" players. The current collective bargaining agreement, which went into effect December 12th, 2011, raised that Super Two cutoff percentage from 17 percent to 22 percent, and that 22 percent of players will be eligible for arbitration four times instead of the standard three times. Also bear in mind that for MLB purposes, 172 days is the equivalent of one year of Major League service time.

Among the current Major League players that would qualify for this distinction following a full season in the Majors are Alex Presley (1.162 as of Opening Day), Josh Donaldson (1.158), Erik Kratz (1.158), Zach Britton (1.158), Kelvin Herrera (1.157), David Phelps (1.156), Tony Campana (1.155), Drew Smyly (1.154), Dee Gordon (1.154), Darin Mastroianni (1.149), Garrett Richards (1.148) Casey Fien (1.143), Jenrry Mejia (1.140), Pedro Beato (1.134), Marwin Gonzalez (1.133), DJ LeMahieu (1.128), Drew Hutchison (1.128), Anthony Recker (1.128) and Eduardo Escobar (1.128). Of course, not all of those names will stick in the Majors long enough to achieve Super Two status.

There are also a number of players that are in the minor leagues with one- and two-plus years of service that could be recalled in 2014 and achieve the status, although it's important to note that a player must accrue at least 86 days of service time in a season to achieve Super Two status at season's end. A player such as Eduardo Nunez, for example, who is in the minors for the Twins but has 2.117 days of service, would not achieve Super Two status simply for receiving a September call-up.

For some context on this year's cutoff, here's a look at the cutoffs from the previous five years:

• 2013: 2.122
• 2012: 2.139
• 2011: 2.146
• 2010: 2.122
• 2009: 2.139

One player of note is Bryce Harper, who, at 1.159 years of service, should be a prime candidate to achieve Super Two status. However, as reported by the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore back in November, the Nationals and Harper have an unresovled contract issue stemming from this very situation. Harper signed a Major League deal out of the draft — something that is no longer possible given the changes to the most recent collective bargaining agreement. At the time the deal was being finalized, the Nationals and agent Scott Boras were unable to come to an agreement on what would happen to Harper's 2015 salary were he to qualify as a Super Two player following the 2014 season. As it stands, his contract does not allow him to opt out of his $1MM salary in 2015 in favor of arbitration. (That salary will almost certainly rise to $2MM due to roster bonuses.) Because an agreement wasn't reached, the sides agreed to revisit the matter if it became an issue and have the situation resolved via a grievance hearing. That could be an outcome now, though an extension or further compromise could also avoid a hearing.

Should Harper be unable to head to arbitration next winter, it could cost him millions, and not just in the 2014-15 offseason. Harper has already done enough to top a $2MM first-time arbitration payday. By earning $2MM in 2015, though, he would not only lose the $2-3MM he would have earned via arbitration, he would also take a hit on future arbitration salaries due to the fact those figures would be based, in part, off of the previous year's arbitration earnings. Instead of having a baseline north of $4MM for his 2016-18 arbitration cases, he'd be starting with a baseline of $2MM.

There have been a number of noteworthy, research-oriented pieces written in recent days with strong hot stove implications. Here are a few worthwhile reads:

• Ben Lindbergh, writing for FOX Sports, analyzes trends in roster turnover over baseball history. He finds that the apparent boom in extensions — driven by TV money, changes in PED trends, and other factors, in concert with revenue sharing and the luxury tax — has halted (and may be reversing) the trend of increasing player movement since the inception of free agency.
• Over at Fangraphs, Tony Blengino analyzes the risks in long-term pitching deals and Wendy Thurm breaks out every player on a 40-man roster by contract type (fielders and pitchers). Blengino looks at comparables for top starters such as Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander, examining how their peers fared after their prime-aged years. Ultimately, he concludes: "There is nothing wrong with paying premium dollars to premium talent, but there is something inherently inefficient in paying premium dollars for an inordinate number of years, multiple years before a club has to do so."
• Sticking with extensions, Yahoo's Jeff Passan looks at the union's difficulties in dealing with seemingly team-friendly, option-laden extensions. Baseball is a $9 billion industry, writes Passan, and as it grows, the MLBPA wants the maximum amount of money going to player salaries, not owners' pockets. However, in some instances, it's simply too difficult for players to turn down life-changing dollars. Passan spoke with one agent who said his client couldn't even grasp the concept of $1MM after growing up in poverty in a Latin American country, so when he was presented with an eight-figure extension offer, he couldn't bring himself to turn it down, even though he was worth more. Passan also writes that some agents that fear their clients could be poached by another agent will advise a player to take an extension to ensure they receive their commission. One GM tells Passan that two club options has become a starting point in negotiations — a thought that would've been laughable a generation ago. (For addtional context on the subject of options, I recently broke down MLB's use of options myself, looking at both overall trends and different option types.)
• In a must-read piece on MLB's international player market, Ben Badler of Baseball America provides a fascinating — and troubling — profile of the scouting and signing of young international prospects. Badler paints a picture of a system that is racing towards younger players and earlier commitments, driven by actors who dislike that cycle but feel powerless to contest it.
• In a fascinating interview on Sirius XM's MLB Network Radio with Mike Ferrin and Jim Duquette (audio link), famed surgeon Dr. James Andrews says that the recent run of Tommy John surgeries is a trend, not just coincidence. In his view, elbow ligament issues find their roots in a pitcher's amateur time. "So you can usually go back and see a minor injury from when they were a young kid throwing youth baseball that was not recognized, but it set them up for a major injury somewhere down the road," said Andrews. "If we can keep these kids clean through high school, then we’re going to see a lot less number of them getting hurt as they become mature college players and professional players. So you’ve got to prevent it at a young age."

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Now that we are over a week into the season, the time is fast approaching when top prospects that have yet to accrue any MLB service time can safely be brought up without the sacrifice of a year of control for their team. With less than 172 days left in the season, players who have no prior MLB time can no longer reach a full year by straight-ahead counting. (Remember: a year of service is achieved at 172 days on the active roster or big league DL; while a season has more than 172 days, a player cannot accrue more than one year of service for each season.)

However, MLB rules provide that players accrue service time if they spend less than 20 days on optional assignment in a given year. Thus, we are still about a week and a half away from the point that prospects who are already on the 40-man (and thus currently on optional assignment) can be called up while still preserving six full seasons of future team control.

Looking at the Baseball America Top 100 prospects, the following top prospects (with rank and team) are in the minors at present, have yet to accrue any MLB service, and are projected by BA to be ready for MLB action at some point in the current season:

Position Players

Byron Buxton (#1, Twins); Oscar Taveras (#3, Cardinals); Javier Baez (#5, Cubs); Miguel Sano (#6, Twins); Kris Bryant (#8, Cubs); Gregory Polanco (#10, Pirates); Francisco Lindor (#13, Indians); Addison Russell (#14, Athletics); Maikel Franco (#17, Phillies); George Springer (#18, Astros); and Jonathan Singleton (#82, Astros).

Pitchers

Archie Bradley (#9, D'Backs); Jon Gray (#12, Rockies); Jameson Taillon (#22, Pirates); Kyle Zimmer (#23, Royals); Eddie Butler (#24, Rockies); Andrew Heaney (#30, Marlins); Alex Meyer (#45, Twins); Marcus Stroman (#55, Blue Jays); Eduardo Rodriguez (#65, Orioles); and Rafael Montero (#68, Mets). 

Of course, several of those players — notably, Sano and Taillon, who are both out for the season — may not have any realistic shot at this point of seeing time in the bigs this year.

For those players, the real key is Super Two status. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes wrote in October, qualification has landed between 2.122 and 2.146 years of service in recent years. To be safe, teams hoping to dodge an extra arbitration payday will want to wait until the calendar flips from May to June to promote the above-listed prospects.

Still other players have already seen some MLB time in years prior and are waiting in the minors for a chance at the bigs. Dylan Bundy (#15, Orioles; 15 days of service) and Jimmy Nelson (#96, Brewers; 27 days service) are both within several weeks of being ready for promotion without costing a year of future control, though the former is still working back from Tommy John. Others — Kevin Gausman (#20, Orioles; 71 days service); Matt Davidson (#72, White Sox; 50 days service); Jake Marisnick (#79, Marlins; 69 days service); and Allen Webster (#88, Red Sox; 44 days service) – would need to stay down for a good bit longer for their clubs to keep that extra season. That group will be among the most interesting names to watch, since it is easy to imagine their employers being tempted both to use them in the bigs and to keep their service clocks paused.

Then, of course, there are the players who have already seen time in the season's early going. The following players will surpass their first year of MLB service unless they are optioned down for much of the season (service shown as of start of 2014):

Position Players

Xander Bogaerts (#2, Red Sox; 42 days service); Nick Castellanos (#25, Tigers; 29 days service); Travis d'Arnaud (#38, Mets; 44 days service); Billy Hamilton (#43, Reds; 28 days service); Jackie Bradley (#50, Red Sox; 59 days service); Kolten Wong (#58, Cardinals; 45 days service); Chris Owings (#66, Diamondbacks; 27 days service); Marcus Semien (#91, White Sox; 27 days service); and Michael Choice (#98, Rangers; 29 days service).

Pitchers

Taijuan Walker (#11, Mariners; 31 days service); Yordano Ventura (#26, Royals; 13 days service); Carlos Martinez (#31, Cardinals; 73 days service); Erik Johnson (#63, White Sox; 27 days service); Jake Odorizzi (#67, Rays; 42 days service); Trevor Bauer (#83, Indians; 25 days service); and James Paxton (#99, Mariners; 27 days service).

Bradley, Semien, Choice, and Bauer (who was just promoted for one start) all have some chance of spending most of their years in the minors, though each could certainly earn a MLB spot. The other players listed all seem to be set up for ongoing, regular big league roles unless they falter. 

These aren't all of the young players whose rise to the big leagues will be impacted by service time considerations, of course. But the above discussion should give you a fair idea of where others would fall, based upon their service time and development timeline.