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Archives for March 2006

Wily Mo Traded For Arroyo

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It’s official:  the Red Sox have sent Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena.  This is an intriguing trade.

The Reds needed a solid affordable starter like Arroyo.  It’s unclear yet which Reds starter will be pushed out of the rotation.  Eric Milton is terrible but well paid.  Paul Wilson will probably begin the year on the DL, so the club won’t have to sort things out until he returns.

So far in his career, Arroyo has done an above average job keeping the ball in the park with a 0.95 HR/9 in 588 innings.  This will come in handy in Great American Ballpark. Still, as U.S.S. Mariner points out, he’s a flyball pitcher entering a home run ballpark with Ken Griffey Jr. as his centerfielder.  Not a great mix. 

You’d have to imagine Arroyo is less than amused after signing a three-year, $11.25MM deal out of loyalty for the Red Sox.  This is one case where a player should’ve listened to his agents.

Fenway Park provides a 13% HR boost for righties like Pena.  Of course, Great American had a similar effect on him.  Here’s a look at some projections for Pena.  I know he’s touted as a 40 HR candidate right now, but something in the low 30s would be more reasonable even if he gets 550 ABs.  For fantasy geeks, Pena could certainly top 100 RBIs for the first time if he gets to hit in the heart of the order and isn’t platooned.

DailyBaseballPicks.com Launches

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It’s been a few weeks since I started a blog, so I was due.  My latest venture:  DailyBaseballPicks.com.

The name is self-explanatory.  I’m going to make a daily baseball pick based on the moneyline.  I like baseball, and I like gambling, so it’s high time those interests cross paths.  Bookmark the page; I’ll begin on Opening Day.  Follow along and we’ll keep an eye on my overall record with profit or loss.  I have no idea how this will go but it should be a good time. 

Red Sox After Craig Wilson?

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Sometimes all it takes is an educated guess to put two and two together.  Hell, maybe Theo and Dave got the idea from this site yesterday – sort of a GM matchmaker (alright, that’s wishful thinking).  But it’s always interesting when speculation turns to real trade talks.

Yesterday I mentioned:

"If the Pirates want Arroyo back, Craig Wilson would be a decent fit given that Youkilis can play third…the Pirates have two vacancies in their rotation but a host of candidates to fill them."

Then today in Rob Rossi’s article for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, he revealed that the Pirates are trying to trade Wilson for a starter, possibly Matt Clement or Bronson Arroyo.  For the Bucs, I like the idea.  Sure, their offense could use a guy like Wilson, but if they must discard him they should at least solidify the rotation. 

A Pittsburgh rotation of Clement/Duke/Perez/Maholm/Snell has a chance to be quite impressive.  It might be five guys with ERAs hovering around 4, but that’s actually hard to find when the average NL starter has a 4.22 ERA.

The Red Sox seem to be anticipating an injury for Trot Nixon or a failure by Mike Lowell, and expecting at least one of the two is the safe play.  The club needs a player like Wilson, who can handle both right field and first base and has an .851 career OPS.

Assuming the White Sox plan to hold on to Jose Contreras, I think they might have it right.  That is, there’s nothing wrong with an overload of starting pitchers.  The White Sox shouldn’t expect their front five to be completely healthy and effective once again.  Similarly, the Red Sox don’t necessarily have a surplus with Arroyo/Beckett/Clement/Papelbon/Schilling/Wakefield/Wells all capable of starting.  Yes, that’s seven pitchers, but three of them are injury risks and Papelbon is unproven.

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Astros/Red Sox Deal Cooking?

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Buster Olney tosses a little trade rumor nugget out in today’s blog:

"By the way: the Red Sox had multiple scouts tracking the Houston Astros on Thursday, at a time when the Astros are looking for a starter (Matt Clement? Wells? Arroyo?)"

Let’s see here…what might the Red Sox want in return?  Jason Lane to replace Trot Nixon?  Seems that if the Sox need anything, it’s a corner infielder in the event Mike Lowell doesn’t pan out.  I can’t really find a good match just perusing the Major League rosters.  Perhaps a three-team deal is in the works or it’s something more minor. 

If the Pirates want Arroyo back, Craig Wilson would be a decent fit given that Youkilis can play third…the Pirates have two vacancies in their rotation but a host of candidates to fill them.

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Friday Morning Reading

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Let’s start off the Friday Morning reading with some Bobby Jenks projections.  I think Sox fans should at least be mildly concerned.

For you fantasy baseball nuts, my 2006 Fantasy Guide is still just $9.99.  Everyone’s drafting soon, so pick up a copy.  Some customer feedback from Kay H:

"Just wanted you to know how helpful your guide has been. I drafted my first team last week and feel that I have a wining team this year, due only to the information I received from your guide. Your guide is the most complete source of up-to-date information I have seen. No fumbling through magazines and reading contradictory opinions from so called experts, who change their minds day after day. In short your guide gave me the facts and just the facts, all in one source."

Alright, enough plugs for today.  On to the readin’:

Brandon Webb’s 2006 outlook, graph style…Why Gaslamp Ball loves the WBC…What the?  Someone blogs about the Royals…The Cards may be a tad reluctant to re-sign Mark Mulder…Turk Wendell sounds off…Could Prior possibly miss two months? A very similar injury to another Chicago pitcher had that result…

2007 MLB Free Agents: Andy Pettitte

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New York papers are abuzz with Andy Pettitte talk, so I thought I’d get in on the act.  Pettitte opened up to reporters yesterday, saying that retirement after the 2006 season is an option if his elbow can’t handle any more.

Pettitte turns 34 this June and will make $17.5MM this season in the last year of his backloaded three-year contract.  One article mentioned that before the 2004 season, Pettitte asked his agent to limit the contract to three years.  Given that obvious uncertainty and Pettitte’s desire to be with his family, retirement is entirely feasible even with the lefty on top of his game.

Yankees fans, of course, would love Pettitte to return to his old stomping grounds.  The team could use another mercenary ace starter, whether it be midseason or for 2007.  If it was a one-year contract for 2007, Pettitte could probably find a team to come close to the record $18MM Roger Clemens received last year with Houston. 

Here’s the issue with any major Yankees trade:  if they want to acquire a star player, they have a very limited set of players to deal.  Off the top of my head, Philip Hughes, Robinson Cano, and maybe Matt DeSalvo (though he’s 25 now).  Why would the Astros surrender Pettitte for anything less? (And don’t try to sell me on Eric Duncan’s performance in the AFL or something). Same goes for Barry Zito, Doug Davis, or whatever other reinforcements the Yankees might pursue if Johnson/Mussina/Chacon/Wang/Pavano doesn’t hold up (and it’d be a miracle if those five held up).  Jaret Wright is a joke, Aaron Small a fluke.  I think the Yanks will be in the market for a starter this summer and Hughes will have to go. 

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Soriano for Griffey Deal In The Works?

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It’s always fun to find trade rumors in Spanish newspapers.  El Nuevo Dia’s latest discusses an Alfonso Soriano for Ken Griffey Jr. trade that is cooking up.  The following is a rough translation (hat tip to Mariloren on the translation!):

The Reds and Nationals have been negotiating the Soriano for Griffey trade over the last few days.  Soriano refused comment when approached by the newspaper.  Details are the proposed transaction are still unknown.  If traded to the Nationals, Griffey would be reunited with former Reds GM Jim Bowden. 

My own commentary: I think the Reds would be the winners in this one.  Griffey is still on the hook for $41.5MM over the next three seasons.  Even if the Reds pick up a third of the cost, they probably come out ahead.  Soriano is a clear upgrade over the current choice to play second base, Tony Womack.  Of course, Ryan Freel might be better than both second basemen, but the Reds seem intent on using him in a supersub role. 

Despite subpar defense for a center fielder, the Nats would surely play Griffey out there.  The loser in the deal would probably be Ryan Church, who could be dealt if Jose Guillen proves healthy.

In other news from the article, Juan Gonzalez is still hungry to return to the Majors and try to reach 500 home runs.

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Steroids Were Banned In 1991

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The Houston Chronicle’s Richard Justice always has something interesting to say in his blog.  Yesterday he cleared up a common misconception about steroids being banned only in recent years:

"Commissioner Fay Vincent sent the clubs a memo in 1991 reminding them that players were forbidden from taking any illegal substance. He specifically mention steroids in the memo and encouraged the clubs to take a get-tough policy on players thought to be using steroids.

What could a team have done if it suspected a player of using steroids? Probably nothing.

Vincent simply wanted to be on the record as letting the clubs know that steroid use was against the rules and that they shouldn’t be afraid to confront a player.

There was no testing for steroids until 2003 (after being part of the 2002 labor agreement).

The notion that Bonds wasn’t breaking any rules is ridiculous. He was. He knew he was."

Walker For Matos Swap In The Works

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As has been rumored for a couple of days now, the Cubs and Orioles are close to swapping Todd Walker and Luis Matos.  According to the Baltimore Sun, the salary difference is the only holdup. 

While the Orioles’ purpose for acquiring Walker is reportedly for use as a DH or bat off the bench, a source of mine says that is not the whole story.  According to the source, Brian Roberts is not where everyone thinks he is health-wise.  He’s been mentioned as perhaps being ready for Opening Day, but that is highly unlikely.  His type of elbow surgery is "largely unknown" according to Will Carroll.

Matos hasn’t been used in right field since 2003.  He’s a right-handed hitter who has batted .236/.302/.353 vs. left-handers over the last three seasons.  In other words, not the ideal platoon partner for Jacque Jones.  I’m guessing the Cubs would carry he and Marquis Grissom as backup outfielders and attempt to find at-bats for Matos in left field.

The Cubs and Orioles have an amicable relationship, having worked out deals for Corey Patterson and Sammy Sosa in the recent past.  In addition, the teams have talked extensively about Miguel Tejada.

A .290 Spring Training batting average has the Orioles thinking Patterson will make a capable regular for them in center field.  While it’s worth a shot, Patterson should again have a hard time topping a .310 OBP.

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Will Carroll Was Right…

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But I doubt he’s happy about it.  Paul Sullivan, the same Paul Sullivan implied Will Carroll didn’t deserve to be called a journalist, reports that Mark Prior has left camp with shoulder soreness.  Maybe he should print an apology?

As Carroll has mentioned, he’s a huge fan of the Cubs and Prior.  It’s a shame to see that the Cubs’ ace will already have his first start pushed back after all the quasi-claims of good health. 

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