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Archives for August 2006

Will The Lions Post Daisuke Matsuzaka?

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Will they or won’t they?  As he would’ve been in 2005, Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka could be the best starting pitcher on the market if the Seibu Lions post him.  Whether they’ll do it is still an open question.

Seattle Times reporter Larry Stone has examined the situation carefully, and it seems like a 50/50 proposition. If the Lions do decide to post him, teams must bid just for the rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka.  Stone speculates that the bidding for these rights could exceed $30MM.  You have to figure it would take around five years and $55 million to sign the prospective Scott Boras client after that. 

For those not scoring at home, that’s the equivalent of $17MM annually for Matsuzaka.  If he were to flop, it would be colossal.  The two names that always come up for Matsuzaka are the Yankees and Mariners. The Yanks have the cash, and the Ms have the Japanese connection.  It’s possible the Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, or Angels could get involved as well.

I wrote about Matsuzaka extensively for my fantasy baseball blog, RotoAuthority.  You can scroll through that background by clicking here.  At the time, it was believed Matsuzaka threw a fascinating pitch called the gyroball, which has yet to be used in the Major Leagues.  However, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan debunked that myth back in March.  All he had to do was ask.

2007 MLB Free Agents: Jim Edmonds

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Seems time to revisit the situation of St. Louis center field stalwart Jim Edmonds.  You may recall a month ago, when I remarked:

"Edmonds has a $10MM option for ’07 with a $3MM buyout, so the Cards really just need to decide if Edmonds is worth $7MM in his age 37 season.  Baseball Prospectus says he is, even if he only gets 515 plate appearances as projected.  Even on the decline Edmonds is a powerful force in the lineup.  However, the Fielding Bible ranks him just 32nd out of 35 center fielders over the last three years.  They say that despite the excellent arm, he’s "lost a step" and did not deserve his last two Gold Gloves.  Still seems wise for the Cards to keep him around if they can limit the years on the deal."

If Torii Hunter hits the market, he’d be the top free agent CF.  Otherwise, plenty of decent second tier options like Kenny Lofton, Dave Roberts, and Gary Matthews Jr. should be floating around.  Edmonds may be the best out there other than Hunter.  It would be silly for the Cardinals not to choose Edmonds’s $3MM buyout over his $10MM option.  How many teams would turn down a chance to have Edmonds on a one-year, $7MM deal?  That’s what Walt Jocketty faces.

Nonetheless, Edmonds is getting the vibe that the Cards will choose the buyout.  Who’s Jocketty going to bring in instead?  Roberts or Lofton for a few million less?  Even on the decline, Edmonds can still contribute an .825 OPS for 130 games.  That’s much better than the average NL CF, who has an OPS of .750 or so.

More On Andruw Jones and Waivers

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A couple of columns shed light on the Andruw Jones situation recently.  As you know, Jones was placed on waivers, claimed, and pulled back.  Andruw called the whole affair "rude." 

According to Ken Rosenthal:

"The Braves routinely put their entire roster on waivers in August, trying to mask their intentions with the two or three players they might want to trade.

Thus, Jones likely has been on waivers every year of his 10-year career. And even though he reportedly was claimed by an undisclosed club, the Braves still couldn’t have traded him without his permission, according to major-league sources."

And then there’s the matter of which team was awarded the claim.  Speculation that it was an NL Central team has proven true, according to Will Carroll.  Carroll tells us the Astros were awarded the claim.  Well-regarded pitching prospect Troy Patton is not on Houston’s 40-man roster, so the Astros wouldn’t have had to pass him through waivers in a deal.

Diamondbacks Acquire Livan Hernandez

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Looks like someone got some faulty info about Livan Hernandez being pulled back from waivers; Ken Rosenthal reports that the Diamondbacks have acquired the 31 year-old righty.  The Nats received Double A pitchers Matt Chico and Garrett Mock.  Chico has had more success with Tennessee so far.  Neither pitcher is on the 40-man roster, making it easier to get the deal done.

Hernandez is set to earn $8MM this season and $7MM in 2007.  While his strikeout rate has remained steady from last year, his hit and home run rates have spiked.  To his credit, his two August starts have been excellent.  The D’Backs are middle-of-the-pack as far as starting pitching and are just two games back in the West.  They’re only one game behind the Reds in the wild card.

Hernandez has 56 innings worth of playoff experience from his time with the Marlins and Giants.  He was the NLCS MVP with the Marlins after winning two games.

2007 Free Agent Market: Starting Pitchers Part 1

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As you may or may not know, MLBTradeRumors.com is your destination for all varieties of free agent info.  In fact, we’ve already begun (scroll down to see everything we’ve written on 2007 MLB free agents since February).   It’s time to take a look at starting pitchers (which will require several posts).  I’ll omit players who are highly likely to have options exercised or that I don’t deem worthy of starting for any club.

2006 League Averages for Pitchers:
AL: 4.59 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 3.20 BB/9, 6.38 K/9, 1.14 HR/9
NL: 4.56 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 3.43 BB/9, 6.60 K/9, 1.12 HR/9

For league average, think your Jake Westbrooks and Kevin Millwoods of the world.

Tony Armas Jr. – The righthander turned 28 this season.  In his career, Armas has been a part of the Mike Stanley and Pedro Martinez trades.  I wouldn’t say Armas has bounced back to his Montreal level of performance, but he did an OK job keeping the ball in the yard and limiting the free passes.  Health has always been a problem; Armas has never pitched 200 innings.  This year, it’s been a forearm strain and back spasms.  He had shoulder surgery last September; it had bothered him for years.  Despite the concerns, I’m thinking something like two years and $8MM for him.

Pedro Astacio – The 36 year-old righty has tossed just 90 innings this year because of a strained forearm.  He might be able to snag a Major League contract somewhere; the Rockies offered him over a million last offseason.

Bruce Chen – Even Scott Boras can’t make Chen’s 2006 season look good.  Still, throw him in front of a capable outfield defense in a cavernous ballpark and he could be a bargain at the back of your rotation.  He did, after all, post a 3.83 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 2005.  Jacobs Field or PETCO could make some sense.  The southpaw made about $4MM in 2006.

Mets Come Out Ahead In Jose Reyes Signing

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The Mets got a fantastic bargain Thursday in signing Jose Reyes to a four-year contract extension.  New York bought out Reyes’s arbitration years and his first year of free agency.  They also included an option to keep him for the 2011 season at $11MM.

Jon Heyman’s thoughts on the deal:

"I bet Jose Reyes’ four-year $23.25 million contract isn’t the union’s favorite, and well-regarded agent Peter Greenberg sounded almost apologetic at the press conference on Thursday. Reyes almost surely would make more by going year to year, as Derek Jeter did, but that’s not easy to do when you grow up poor, and particularly when you’ve had injuries."

Reyes is just 23 and is in the midst of a breakout season.  His OBP and SLG are by far career bests.  Rickey Henderson seems to have helped this spring.  More teams should try relationships like this.  Even though Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projection system did not see these spikes coming, projections still indicate that every year of the contract, 2011 included, is a bargain for the Mets.

Braves Scouts Attended Rangers Game Thursday

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According to the Dallas Morning News Seamheads blog, two Braves scouts attended Thursday’s Rangers-Angels game.

Evan Grant theorizes that the Rangers may have claimed Andruw Jones to block the Angels.  He also described the scouts’ attendance as "unusual."

Said Buster Olney today on Jones:

"If they don’t trade him today without getting his approval then they never will be able to.  If Jones is in the lineup against the Reds this afternoon, we’ll know he’s staying, at least until the offseason."

Andruw deemed it "rude" that the Braves are keeping him in the dark about this waiver business.  But John Schuerholz did say "He should know that we would talk if a trade was imminent."

I would’ve suggested that the Braves and Rangers were discussing Chris Reitsma or John Thomson, but both look to be out for the season.  Still, waiver trades are almost never as interesting as Andruw Jones.

Red Sox Acquire Javy Lopez

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As you well know, the Red Sox have picked up their 3-5 week catcher replacement in Javy Lopez.  The Red Sox are sending 26 year-old outfielder Adam Stern to the Orioles in return. 

Multiple reports mention that the Devil Rays could claim Stern as revenge for the Red Sox illegally talking to Julio Lugo’s agent.  Ah, the drama.  If the D-Rays try it the Red Sox can just send Stern as a player to be named later this winter. 

Lopez makes $8.5MM in the last year of his deal.  He’s another data point for not signing catchers over age 30 to multi-year deals.  Didn’t work well for Jason Kendall, Mike Lieberthal, and many others.  Jason Varitek declined drastically with the bat this season.  No catcher on the market this winter will get a long-term deal, anyway. 

Which Team Was Awarded The Andruw Jones Claim?

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The Braves have until Saturday afternoon to either strike a deal with the team that was awarded a claim for Andruw Jones or pull him back.  Most likely, the Braves will hang on to Jones.  As I learned from Steve Phillips, "all 40-man roster players must go through waivers in order to change teams even if they are in the minor leagues."  The old player-to-be-named-later is an option, though that player cannot be an active Major Leaguer.

We know more than one team put in a claim on Jones.  Because he’s in the NL, NL teams get first rights to Jones.  That’s why I’d guess that the team awarded the claim is not the Angels or Red Sox.

What if it was the Cubs, with an eye towards being competitive in 2007?  Would the Brewers, Astros, Reds, or Cardinals get involved?

If a deal were made, I would have to think the team sending away younger player(s) would have a handshake deal with a team like the Cubs to let the kids through. 

Andruw Jones Placed On Waivers

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Rob Bradford of Massachusett’s Eagle-Tribune writes that Andruw Jones has been placed on waivers by the Braves.  I discovered this via Buster Olney’s blog.  Said Olney:

"In any event, I seriously doubt Jones will be playing for anybody but the Braves, despite the fact that in the next week, he’ll earn the 10-and-5 right to veto any trade. But we’ll soon know if anybody has placed a claim, and whether the Braves are willing to discuss a trade."

Jones makes $13.5MM next season in the last year of his contract.  He’ll turn 30 in the beginning of the ’07 season.  Andruw’s .350 OBP and .514 SLG are right in line with career norms.  Baseball Prospectus expects him to remain at this level until about 2009.  Remember, National League teams would get the first crack at Jones if more than one club puts in a claim.  I could see the Cardinals and Astros putting in claims.  If the Braves can’t make a deal with the team that claimed Jones, they can always just pull him back.

For a good summary of how waiver trades work, consult Steve Phillips’s article from a year ago.

 

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