Cubs Close To Signing Jason Marquis

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch confirmed a rumor Bruce Levine first reported yesterday – that Jason Marquis is close to signing with the Cubs.

It’s easy to look at Marquis’s 6.02 ERA and question why any team would give him a million or three to pitch next year.  However, it should be noted that Tony La Russa left Marquis in to save the bullpen on two occasions – June 21 against the White Sox (13 ER in 5 IP) and July 18th against the Braves (12 ER in 5 IP).  Let’s take those two starts out, for the sake of argument.

With two slaughter starts included: 6.02 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 10.2 H/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.28 K/BB

With two slaughter starts removed: 5.13 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 4.4 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.24 K/BB

Alright, that experiment still shows that Marquis had an awful year.  But at least it was somewhat less awful than it looked.  Think Steve Trachsel/Jamey Wright territory, with Miguel Batista upside. 

We can see that compared 2005, Marquis’s HR prevention and control worsened a bit (although not terribly so).  The biggest difference was a groundball percentage that dropped from 52% to 43%.  He needs to get the sink back – Cesar Izturis can do the rest.

Marquis isn’t a great pitcher.  His strikeout rate is dangerously low.  But he could be good for 200 innings and a 4.50 ERA – I think there’s at least a 50% chance of that.  4.49 was the National League average ERA in 2006.  It’s a gamble that’s worth the $3MM he’ll probably want.