Free Agent Class Ranks 2006
This isn’t a major concern for most teams, (especially in the current market) but sandwich picks and other compensation in the rule 4 (amateur) draft are determined by a cockamamie formula developed by the Elias Sports Bureau.
Teams that lose a Type A free agent are compensated with two draft picks. Teams that lose a Type B free agent get one pick in return. The other particulars, along with the entire list of this year’s FA Class Rankings, can be found here. The entire list of Elias rankings (everybody, not just FAs) can be seen here. (The formula takes into account the previous two seasons–that’s how a guy like Mark Mulder and his 93 IP of 7.14 ERA in ’06 can wiggle his way to the top of the B class of starting pitchers.)
It’s interesting because it’s an exploitable area. If you’re a low-budget team looking to build your organization through the draft and player development, losing the right guys (overvalued, Type A free agents) can pay dividends. Similarly, signing the right low-level (Type-B/No-Comp) undervalued FAs, whereby you don’t lose a pick, is certainly low-risk, and might be high-return if you’re lucky.
With position classes weighted equally, losing David Riske (RP) gets you as many compensatory picks as losing Jason Schmidt (SP) or Alfonso Soriano (1B,OF,DH). White Sox fans can feel good about that one, and Red Sox fans can rejoice with Mark Loretta making the A-list.
Keep in mind, nearly all these comped picks are within the first two rounds, that’s before solid-looking prospects like Jonathan Papelbon, Elijah Dukes, or Ricky Nolasco are getting picked…they are slots where you’re essentially getting instant top-20 prospects within your organization.
(UPDATE: Apologies. Teams that sign a Type B Free Agent do lose one of their own draft picks. Also, (and something pretty important that I forgot to mention) the top 15 picks are protected. So, as a few commenters pointed out, the Cubs, for instance, do not lose their cozy #3 slot as a result of signing Alf.
–Koch at CubDumb
Tim Getting Married? Oh my..
Tim invited me to post a few comments while he is off on his honeymoon. I suppose my first post should be titled "Why, Tim?" but I’ll leave that alone. Instead, I’ll throw you a few general tidbits today so you have some reading material over the weekend.
The Rockies and Marlins have had some interest in acquiring Chris Duffy from the Pirates but word out of Pittsburgh is, Duffy isn’t available.
I posted a new article at Bucco Blog: Marginal $/Marginal Wins: 1999 – 2006 which tends to show the front office efficiency of MLB teams over the last eight years.
David Pinto has started to release his year-end PMR (Probabilistic Model of Range) defensive stats based on ball in play data.
Dan Syzmborski is also starting to release his 2007 offensive player ZIPS projections at The Baseball Think Factory.
David W. Smith presented a paper titled "Effect of Batting Order (Not Lineup) on Scoring" at SABR’s 2006 national convention. It’s a great read. You can look through some of the better SABR papers at Retrosheet’s research section.
Baseball-Reference has added a lot of great features so far this off season including box scores for every game since 1957, batting and pitching gamelogs, and my favorite, splits. Here is Zach Duke’s splits to give you an idea.
Until next week, join me in sending Tim and his new bride congrats — *Jake toasts his Corona*.
By Jake at Bucco Blog
Tier 2 Starting Pitchers
Jason Jennings certainly isn’t a free agent, but he may be the best starter available through trade. Let’s take a look at how he stacks up against some of the other "Tier 2" guys being bandied about by half the clubs in baseball. Stats are from 2006 except for Randy Wolf, for whom I used ’05.
Strikeouts per nine innings:
Ted Lilly – 7.93
Gil Meche – 7.52
Vicente Padilla – 7.02
Randy Wolf – 6.86
Jason Jennings – 6.03
Jeff Weaver – 5.60
Jeff Suppan – 4.93
Miguel Batista – 4.80
Woody Williams – 4.46
Lilly, Meche, and Padilla are probably the three who might be considered power pitchers.
Walks per nine innings:
Woody Williams – 2.17
Jeff Weaver – 2.46
Randy Wolf – 2.93
Vicente Padilla – 3.15
Jeff Suppan – 3.27
Jason Jennings – 3.61
Miguel Batista – 3.66
Ted Lilly – 4.01
Gil Meche – 4.05
Wolf, as you can see, ranks well in both categories. He will need to regain his pre-TJ control though.
K/BB (a measure of command):
Randy Wolf – 2.35
Jeff Weaver – 2.28
Vicente Padilla – 2.23
Woody Williams – 2.06
Ted Lilly – 1.98
Gil Meche – 1.86
Jason Jennings – 1.67
Jeff Suppan – 1.51
Miguel Batista – 1.31
This is where Jennings suffers, as he does not put the ball where he wants to.
Expected home runs per nine innings (each pitcher normalized to a 10.8% home run per flyball rate):
Miguel Batista – 0.93
Jeff Suppan – 0.99
Vicente Padilla – 1.05
Jason Jennings – 1.09
Randy Wolf – 1.13
Gil Meche – 1.15
Ted Lilly – 1.17
Jeff Weaver – 1.33
Woody Williams – 1.38
This is where the groundball pitchers rule. So far Padilla is looking like the best overall pitcher.
Bill James ERA projections:
Woody Williams – 4.04
Vicente Padilla – 4.23
Ted Lilly – 4.35
Randy Wolf – 4.31
Miguel Batista – 4.37
Jeff Weaver – 4.40
Jeff Suppan – 4.46
Jason Jennings – 4.77
Gil Meche – 4.76
Nobody under 4, but a few guys will probably sneak in if they move to the NL. I like how Padilla grades well across the board; I think he could really help a team like the Cubs. Wolf is the upside play, but he may have enough suitors that he doesn’t have to take a discount despite throwing just 136 innings over the past two seasons. Williams is a bit like Greg Maddux, in that he’s a helpful control artist who won’t require a long-term commitment. One difference is that Maddux has fewer teams for which he’s willing to play, it appears. If only Weaver hadn’t excelled in the playoffs, I could see him being a mild bargain.
2007 Free Agent Market: Third Basemen
With the Cubs signing both Mark DeRosa and Aramis Ramirez, and the D-Rays winning the rights to Akinori Iwamura, the free agent market for third basemen is shrinking. Check it out.
There are basically six viable candidates, and that’s if we include questionable third base defenders like Garciaparra, Huff, Hillenbrand, Rich Aurilia, and Helms. The demand for Mike Lowell, Morgan Ensberg, and Joe Crede should be strong.
2007 MLB Free Agents: Justin Speier
After wrongly leaving Justin Speier off my Top 50 Free Agents list, I felt the need to make it up to him by giving him his very own post.
Speier was drafted by the Cubs back in ’95, buried in the 55th round. He was a reliever from Day 1. The Cubs made a pretty poor trade for bullpen help at the trading deadline in ’98, sending Speier, Kevin Orie, and Todd Noel to the Marlins for Felix Heredia.
Things didn’t go well for him in Florida, leading to a trade to Atlanta for a no-namer. Speier was placed on waivers at year’s end and the Indians claimed him. He pitched well for the Tribe in 2000 but was sent to the Mets for a no-namer the next year. The Mets designated him for assignment after ten days, but Speier was out of options and didn’t make it through waivers. He became a Rockie.
After two solid seasons in Colorado (including some closer duty), the Blue Jays rescued him in the winter of ’03 in the Joe Kennedy/Mark Hendrickson trade. Speier got some saves in ’04 under Carlos Tosca, though a sore elbow sidelined him in May.
He was to begin ’05 as the Jays’ closer, but Miguel Batista got the gig instead. Ligament damage in the middle finger of his pitching hand popped up in September to end a fine season (Speier allowed fewer than one baserunner per inning).
The finger injury recurred in spring of 2006, but he was fine to start the season as B.J. Ryan‘s setup man. Forearm issues came about this August, causing Speier to post his smallest inning total in a long time.
Speier has solid command, with a career K/BB of 2.5. Scouting report from Keith Law:
"Speier is a three-pitch reliever with good command of all three. He has a low-90s fastball with a little run but no sink; a tight slider with good tilt; and a splitter that he has improved to the point that it’s a very effective weapon against left-handed hitters. When he’s on, he keeps everything at or just above hitters’ knees, garnering strikes and some bad swings. His fastball is flat, however, and he’ll give up a lot of home runs if he has to pitch in the upper half of the zone."
According to ESPN, Speier throws about 64% fastballs, 29% sliders, and 7% other stuff.
I could see Speier commanding a deal similar to Kyle Farnsworth‘s – three years, $17MM with incentives and a signing bonus. The closer market is terrible, and Speier is one of the better choices.
Keith Law’s Top 40 Free Agents
You may not be able to read this, as it’s behind ESPN’s Insider wall. But Keith Law’s Top 40 Free Agents list is the kind of material that makes subscribing worth it.
Given the plug I just gave, hopefully I can slip in a few highlights of the list here.
– Law sees Aramis Ramirez as the best FA on the market. Contrary to popular belief, Ramirez’s defense is at least average at third. He’s also the youngest FA outside of Matsuzaka.
– He sees Matsuzaka allowing more HRs than one might think.
– Law ranked Ted Lilly 12th overall, calling him "Barry Zito without the name recognition, and with a little more stuff." Let’s not forget a lot less durability. I put Lilly 26th though some folks did urge me to put him higher. The Yankees recently got in touch with Lilly’s agent about a return engagement.
– He loves Gil Meche as an upside play, calling him a "pitching coach’s dream." He also is fond of Randy Wolf for upside. Law is baffled as to why teams could view Mark Mulder as an upside play, and I’m definitely in the same camp there.
– Justin Speier comes in at 18th overall and would make a fine closer for some team. This omission from my list was an oversight.
– He’s not a fan of Adam Eaton at all, and doesn’t think Greg Maddux has much left. Law can’t see Jeff Suppan surviving in the AL.
– He doesn’t see Akinori Iwamura‘s power translating well.
– Law gives an interesting Kei Igawa scouting report: "Igawa is primarily a two-pitch pitcher, with a below-average fastball in the 84-88 mph range with a little run, and a plus 74-79 mph curveball with a late two-plane break." Law sees Igawa as a fine LOOGY in the worst case and a decent NL starter in the best case.
– He seems very wary of Vicente Padilla‘s alcohol abuse.
– Law sees Gary Matthews Jr. as a "fourth outfielder who had an outstanding season," ranking him 35th.
USA Today On Free Agent Destinations
Six USA Today sportswriters recently weighed in with free agent destination predictions. A quick summary:
– They favor the Halos for Alfonso Soriano.
– Very mixed feelings on Zito and Schmidt.
– The writers expect Jeff Suppan, Aramis Ramirez, and Barry Bonds to remain with their 2006 clubs.
Dayn Perry’s Top 20 Free Agents
Dayn Perry’s Top 20 Free Agents list is up at FOX Sports; it looks solid. If I had to gripe I’d say that Vicente Padilla belongs ahead of Jeff Suppan, but it’s certainly debatable. And Mark Mulder looks a little high.
ESPN’s Free Agent Tracker
You can’t deny that ESPN’s Free Agent Tracker is always a handy reference. The new one is out; bookmark it.
Though to nitpick I think they should include Japanese guys like Matsuzaka, Igawa, and Iwamura even though they’re not technically free agents. Last year Steve Phillips left Kenji Johjima off his initial Top 50 Free Agents list and it was not cool.
Top Defensive Free Agents
Let’s give a little love to that difficult-to-measure skill known as defense. Using John Dewan’s Fielding Bible, here are the best available free agents at each position, defensively. Any quote is from the book.
1B – Doug Mientkiewicz – "He has range and agility and is like a vacuum sucking up all throws, good and bad." The problem, of course, is that it’s tough to compensate for a .410 SLG from this position.
2B – Craig Counsell – While his arm ain’t much, Counsell is quite good moving to his right as well as catching popups. If he can get that OBP back up to .350 one more time his bat wouldn’t kill you.
SS – Alex Gonzalez – Sorry about the earlier gaffe – Neifi is comically signed through 2007. On Gonzo: "His range and athleticism are top-notch, he has a powerful arm and can make throws from deep in the hole from his knees. He is excellent on the double play."
3B – David Bell – "He has very good range with good hands and footwork." The Fielding Bible even thinks Bell should’ve won the Gold Glove in 2005. Problem: he slugs .400.
LF – Carlos Lee – Surprised, aren’t you? Dewan says: "Lee has a reputation as a poor defensive player, but that isn’t deserved." Everyone throws in a jab at Lee’s defense and mentions how he’ll have to DH soon enough. But the fielding experts feel otherwise.
CF – Gary Matthews Jr. – "Matthews runs well, has good range, and is versatile enough to play all three outfield spots. He combines a center fielder’s range with a right fielder’s arm." To me, this why Matthews is still a decent buy even if his offense slips significantly.
RF – Trot Nixon – "He gets good jumps on balls and has a strong, above-average arm." I could’ve used Richard Hidalgo here, as Hidalgo is a defensive beast. Problem is, Hidalgo is hitting .246 in the Venezuelan Winter League right now. Nixon saw his power plummet this year; perhaps he can bounce back a little and be a value buy.