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Archives for March 2007

Rumor Roundup

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There’s not much going on today in the world o’ rumors.  By now you’ve heard most of the spring training trade candidates, and they’re not thrilling.  That said, here’s what’s going on:

  • The Boston Globe quotes an AL GM who thinks the open fifth starter spot in Boston inches them a little closer to Roger Clemens.  The GM favors Houston despite the financial power of the other two contenders.  The Astros need Clemens the most.
  • Clint Barmes was sent to Triple A, with the Cubs and Rangers still tracking him as a possible utility infielder.  Wouldn’t be a bad move for either club, though the Rockies would be selling low.  Really low.
  • Byung-Hyun Kim was moved to the bullpen as Josh Fogg won the Rockies’ fifth starter job.  The Denver Post reports stronger interest in him as a reliever.  The Rocky Mountain News says the Royals, Rangers, and Marlins are considering trading for him.  Perhaps the Rangers could acquire Barmes and Kim in one deal.
  • Giants’ pinch-hitter Mark Sweeney is on the bubble, and the club might trade him.  He’ll make $950K this year and is a solid bench bat.  It’s going to be Sweeney or Jason Ellison, who is out of options.  The Fish have scouted Ellison but were told he’s not available.
  • The Pirates’ Jose Castillo, who played second base last year, lost the third base competition to Jose Bautista.  It could spell a trade for Castillo.  The Braves were previously interested, but I think they’ll give Kelly Johnson an honest shot.

Rays Interested In Jorge Julio

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You can add another Florida team to the mix for Arizona reliever Jorge Julio – the Devil Rays.  Ken Rosenthal updated this article with the rumor. 

Rosenthal adds that Julio is not Tampa Bay’s first option, and that the goal could be to flip him for prospects.  Makes me wonder if they might try something similar with Al Reyes given the current market for relievers.

The Marlins, Cardinals, and Giants have expressed interest in Julio in the past.

Hat tip to DRays Bay for passing it along.

Royals Acquire Tony Pena Jr.

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Yesterday we learned that the Royals had a list of 20 shortstops in their sights; today they made a deal. Dayton Moore nabbed Tony Pena Jr. from his former employer, the Braves.

Pena, 26, is the son of the former Royals manager.  I’m not sure he’ll be of much value offensively, but at least he’ll play good defense.  Pena’s PECOTA calls for a Berroa-like .244/.279/.337 line.

Yankees Won’t Renegotiate With A-Rod

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In case you missed Jon Heyman’s scoop yesterday: Brian Cashman won’t renegotiate Alex Rodriguez’s contract after this season.  I imagine he went public with it in attempt to put the onus back on A-Rod when he leaves after the season.  For once, Rodriguez is not biting and won’t discuss it further with the media.  Heyman reiterates that Rodriguez will not consent to a trade if the Yankees are in contention.  Other notes from the column:

  • Out of all the relievers on the market, Jorge Julio seems the most likely to be dealt.
  • Heyman thinks John Smoltz is done with team-friendly contracts and will leave the Braves after 2007.  Could the Red Sox replace Curt Schilling with him?
  • Devil Rays "second baseman" Jorge Cantu is on the block.  I think he has been for some time.  I believe there is a federal law mandating mention of his 117 RBI season in any Cantu trade rumor.  Ooh boy, look at all those ribbies!  Perhaps the Rays would shift Akinori Iwamura or B.J. Upton to second base.  In any case, I don’t think Cantu is part of the long-term plan.

Marlins, Mariners Still Scouting Benitez

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To hear Armando Benitez tell it, the Giants would regret trading him.  That’s probably true, but it speaks more to the sorry state of their bullpen than his abilities.

According to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News, the Marlins and Mariners scouted his performance yesterday.  Baggarly mentions other previously interested clubs: the Reds and Red Sox.  I imagine the Sox will back off now, assuming they were interested in the first place.

As far as Seattle’s needs, reports are positive on J.J. Putz.  Back when we assumed he was healthy, he was a bit undervalued in fantasy baseball.  Now with an elbow scare, I think he can be an absolute bargain if he drops to the 10-12th round.

The Marlins have internal options comparable to Benitez in skill, if not track record.  The Giants will probably hang on to their closer unless a viable replacement emerges.

2007 San Diego Padres

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Time for a Padres Team Outlook.  Notice the new sidebar section called MLBTR Features.  There you will always be able to find these outlooks as well as free agent info for next offseason.

Kevin Towers’s contract obligations:

C – Josh Bard – $1.05MM
C – Rob Bowen – $0.38MM
1B – Adrian Gonzalez – $0.3805MM
2B – Marcus Giles – $3.25MM + incentives
SS – Khalil Greene – $2.25MM + incentives
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff – $0.38MM
IF – Todd Walker – $3.95MM
IF – Russell Branyan – $1.25MM
IF – Geoff Blum – $0.9MM + incentives
LF – Terrmel Sledge – $0.38MM
CF – Mike Cameron – $7MM
RF – Brian Giles – $9MM
OF – Jose Cruz Jr. – $0.65MM

SP – Greg Maddux – $10MM
SP – Jake Peavy – $4.75MM
SP – David Wells – $3MM + incentives
SP – Chris Young – $0.6MM
SP – Clay Hensley – $0.392MM

RP – Trevor Hoffman – $6.5MM
RP – Scott Linebrink – $1.75MM
RP – Scott Strickland – $0.55MM
RP – Doug Brocail – $0.5MM + incentives
RP – Cla Meredith – $0.38MM
RP – Heath Bell – $0.38MM
RP – Mike Thompson – $0.38MM

I calculate a $60MM payroll, not including any incentives earned.  That’s down about $10MM from last year, so count on Towers making a big move midseason if needed.

Let’s first take a look at defense.  If Bard’s 17% caught stealing rate from last year carries over, he may be the worst in baseball at shutting down the running game.  Head to head fantasy baseball players, take note.  He’s not quite Piazza bad, but still. 

Kouzmanoff is not a glove man, nor are backup infielders Branyan and Walker.  Greene and Giles form an above average defensive middle infield combo, taking some pressure off Kouz.  The outfield defense should be excellent, led by Cameron.  Peavy and Young are the flyball pitchers on the staff while the rest get grounders.

How about the offense, ranked 13th of 16 NL teams last year?  They have a downgrade at catcher, upgrade at 2B, big upgrade at 3B, and a clear upgrade in left.  It seems sneaky, but this team has improved a lot on offense by importing Giles and Sledge while letting Dave Roberts go.  It’s tough to sustain a Roberts-type hitter from a power position if you’re not the White Sox.  They should move towards the middle in runs scored.

One more note – I really like what they’re doing with Sledge and Cruz in left.  That platoon could be league average or better for a million bucks, and if it’s not, they’ve got money in the coffers to compensate for a big-name addition like Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye should they become available.

I feel that the Padres have the best starting rotation in the league, beating out the Brewers.  The staff has very good control, especially if Maddux can teach Hensley some things and Young bounces back.  If healthy, top pitching prospect Cesar Carrillo could jump right in as the sixth man and post a 4.50 ERA from the start.

The bullpen is a clear strength as well; the crew should be at least top five and maintain an ERA under 4 again.

I’ve yet to give the other NL West teams an in-depth analysis, but the Padres have a well-balanced attack and quietly improved over the offseason.  This looks like a playoff team.

Need more Padres previews?  Geoff Young of Ducksnorts has done two – one at Hardball Times and another at CGBB.

Papelbon Back To Pen

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It’s not a trade rumor, but it’s somewhat related.  According to ESPN’s Erin Andrews, the Red Sox are expected to announce Jonathan Papelbon’s return to the closer role today.  Somewhere, Joel Pineiro just shed a tear.  Papelbon hopes to become the next Mariano Rivera.

My guess is that the Sox will use a stopgap solution in the fifth starter spot until Jon Lester is ready, perhaps by late April.  Personally, I like the decision.  Baseball Prospectus’s Nate Silver summed it up well:

"I understand full well that a great starter is more valuable than a great reliever. But in Papelbon’s case, the risk is too high to justify the reward."

Curt Schilling discusses the transition at his blog.  Check out the fantasy ramifications over at RotoAuthority.

Royals Hunting For A Shortstop

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How bad was Angel Berroa’s .592 OPS in 474 ABs last year?  Was it among the worst ever for a shortstop with 450 ABs?  Nah.  Hal Lanier is the record holder – he hit .206/.222/.239 (.461 OPS) in 1968.  He must’ve been a stud with the glove. 

Since 2000, Berroa’s season was the third worst for a shortstop.  Only Neifi Perez and Cristian Guzman topped his futility and kept their jobs all year.  There were a lot of really poor-hitting full-time shortstops last year – Berroa, Clint Barmes, Ronny Cedeno, Adam Everett.  Only Everett is keeping his job.

Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star writes that the Royals are not happy with internal shortstop options Berroa and Alex Gonzalez, and have a list of 20 or more trade candidates.  Dutton names Barmes, and John McDonald as two likely possibilities, with Erick Aybar or Brandon Wood as longshots.  Personally I think there’s a snowball’s chance in hell of the Angels trading Wood to the Royals.

Josh Wilson is probably on the list, and Yunel Escobar might be too.  Sean Rodriguez is another option.  If the Royals wanted to up the ante, Orlando Cabrera or Jack Wilson could be available.

Berroa’s contract exists as proof that locking up young players long-term for cost certainty does not always work out. In the spring following his 2003 Rookie of the Year season, he received a four-year, $11MM deal.

Braves Sign McCann For Six Years

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In a first for the Braves, they’ve signed a pre-arbitration player to a long-term deal.  Brian McCann signed a six year, $27.8MM deal today.  There’s an additional $2MM in incentives.  In comparison, Joe Mauer recently signed a four-year, $33MM deal.

McCann’s contract is a record for a player with less than two years of service time.  It represents a change in Braves’ philosophy, and they’ve talked to Jeff Francoeur’s agent as well.

McCann will be a Brave through 2012, with a $12MM club option for 2013.  McCann requested the ’13 option for $12MM be the Braves’ decision, in case his performance is not up to par at that point.  If my math is correct, the deal buys out one year of free agency.  But I wasn’t told there would be math.

Ranked by OPS, McCann’s 2006 season was the best ever for a catcher at age 23 or younger.  Among the great under-25 catcher seasons, only Rudy York’s 1938 was better.

I’m not sure where this leaves Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  Maybe as the team’s best trade bait, if he bounces back this year. 

Rockies Interested In Chad Cordero

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Surprisingly, Ken Rosenthal is indicating that the Rockies are interested in Nationals closer Chad Cordero.  I didn’t realize the Rockies were that serious about bullpen help, but it makes sense.  However, Cordero doesn’t seem like the right target as he is a flyball pitcher.

It may be a moot point in that discussions haven’t occurred for weeks between the two clubs.  It seems that Jim Bowden is looking for two of the Rockies’ five best prospects, and they have some excellent ones.  Of course, Trader Jim is in the catbird seat.  Other highlights of Rosenthal’s article:

  • The Rangers want a decent right-handed hitting fourth outfielder like Chris Denorfia or Jason Ellison.  Ellison seems more likely to be dealt as he’s out of options.  Ellison’s not young, but hitting .400 for a third of a season at Triple A should draw some attention.
  • In addition to the Cubs, Marlins, and Rangers, the Twins like Clint Barmes.  Despite an awful ’06, Barmes definitely has his uses.  PECOTA calls for a fairly solid .277/.321/.421 line.
  • Perhaps in an attempt to lead the league in DL days, the A’s inquired on Chris Snelling.  Again, Bowden asked for too much in return.

 

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