The Tigers’ rotation is getting a massive boost this weekend. Manager A.J. Hinch announced to the team’s beat this morning that two-time reigning Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal will return to start Saturday’s game versus the Guardians in Cleveland (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). Sunday could bring about another big return, as Hinch added that right-hander Casey Mize is likely to return Sunday, though he needs to complete one more bullpen session today before the team finalizes that decision.
That Skubal is set to return this quickly is remarkable. The Tigers announced in early May that their ace would require an arthroscopic procedure to remove loose bodies from his elbow. That procedure took place not even five full weeks ago. Skubal has already made one rehab start, pitching five shutout frames with only two hits allowed and six strikeouts for Detroit’s High-A affiliate.
Skubal underwent an experimental new procedure — a “NanoNeedle” scope that figures to grow in popularity following Skubal’s incredibly swift return to a big league mound. (The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen detailed the manner in which the NanoNeedle differs from a traditional elbow scope back in mid-May, for those who are interested.) Blake Snell underwent the same procedure about a week and a half after Skubal and is on a similarly fast track; he started a throwing program last week, not even three weeks out from his procedure (via MLB.com’s Sonja Chen).
Prior to landing on the injured list, Skubal looked well on his way to a third straight Cy Young-caliber season. While he faces some steep competition this year — Yankees righty Cam Schlittler and White Sox righty Davis Martin have broken out with dominant performances — Skubal was sitting on a terrific 2.70 ERA with a strong 27.1% strikeout rate and a 3.6% walk rate that would be a career-best mark were he to sustain it. Metrics like FIP (2.11) and SIERA (2.88) support Skubal’s continued dominance.
While Skubal will draw the most headlines — understandably so — Mize’s return is also a major development. The former No. 1 overall pick had a career year in 2025 when he took the ball 28 times and turned in a 3.87 ERA with a career-best K-BB% (16.7) over 149 frames. He’s been even better this season, sprinting out of the gate with a 2.27 ERA in 47 2/3 innings over nine starts. Mize’s 26.5% strikeout rate and 12.8% swinging-strike rate are both career-highs by a wide margin. His 6.5% walk rate is an exact match for his career mark entering the season. Mize has largely moved away from his curveball and sinker to focus more heavily on a four-seamer/splitter/slider repertoire — and done so to great effect thus far.
If Mize indeed returns, he’d push rookie Troy Melton back to Monday, per Jason Beck of MLB.com. Melton has been far too good in his four starts with the big league club to consider removing from the rotation or sending to Triple-A Toledo. He’s pitched 25 2/3 innings with a 2.81 earned run average. That includes seven innings of one-run ball against the White Sox in Chicago and eight innings of two-run ball against the Rays in St. Petersburg. Melton’s 13.7% strikeout rate raises some skepticism about his ability to sustain this pace, but he’s fanned nearly 20% of his opponents over his past two starts — far closer to the 22% league average.
A six-man rotation for the Tigers looks like a logical step for the starting staff, Hinch noted. Skubal and Mize would join Melton, Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty and Keider Montero in that scenario. The Tigers will face a decision when Justin Verlander returns from a hip injury later this month. Montero has pitched well in 12 starts. Flaherty has had a tough season but has improved over the past five weeks — and over his past three starts in particular. Valdez has a pedestrian 4.40 ERA overall, but a disproportionate amount of the damage against him has come in two meltdown starts earlier this season; he allowed 15 earned runs over eight innings between those two appearances but has a 2.97 ERA in his other 12 starts.
For an injury-ravaged Tigers club, tough decisions of that nature are good problems to have. Detroit’s season looked to be on the brink not long ago, but they’ve rattled off six wins in their past eight games. The Tigers are still a shocking 12 games under .500, but the lackluster competition in the American League leaves them only five and a half games back of a Wild Card spot. Detroit has a lot of work to do if there’s any hope of climbing back toward the top of the division, but the Tigers play three games in Cleveland this weekend and host the White Sox for three next week (with a series against a disappointing Astros club between those two); there’s a real opportunity for them to close some ground in the coming days, right as two key arms are ready to rejoin the fray.
Tigers making a run for the division? Cant jusy lay down for the sox right ?
Don’t care for the pitcher, kinda hope he is traded…….to the Jays!!!!!LOL
This could be one of the best stories of the year, and I hope for Tigers fans’ sake it is. I worry that it could also be one of the biggest mistakes, too. This is as experimental a procedure as TJ was in ’74 when Tommy John had it done. And he was not at the top of his field–good pitcher but was 6 years off from having been an all star. This would be like Tom Seaver or Jim Palmer having the first TJ surgey back then. Just risky. Hope all goes well and it works out for him and for the Tigers.
That’s not a relevant analogy at all. This is simply a new, less invasive method to access the same space to perform the same procedure as before.
The new way *reduces* risk. It reduces the demands on the body to recover from a well established procedure.
It doesn’t reduce risk, it reduces recovery time. I’m not sure that that is risk. I’m saying that the risk is in the speed at which they’re returning him back to the rotation–sorry I wasn’t clearer on that. It is risky for him to be returning to the rotation in just over a month from something like this. He’s had one rehab start. And he’s being rushed to rejoin the rotation because of his value to the team and, I would say more so, to his agent. I can’t imagine that if the 4th or 5th starter for a team like the Angels goes under the same surgery that he’s returning this quickly–his high-profile status is driving the accelerated recovery time and that is where the risk is heightened, not in the procedure itself. That is why I make the Seaver/Palmer comparison.
The Athletic article they linked to above mentions that Skubal is being treated as a kind of guinea pig (albeit they do say that it isn’t necessarily an experimental procedure as it’s been used on other athletes, so me saying that it’s experimental isn’t correct). This procedure doesn’t reduce risk but reduces some harm on the body which *may* lead to this kind of returning timeline, but there is nothing certain about that. And the fact that it’s happening to Skubal is only more risky based on his importance to Tigers’ fortune and his (and his agent’s) fortune.
The return timeline is primarily a function of (A) recovery from the underlying injury plus (B) recovery from additional wounds caused by the procedure itself. For pitchers using the older surgical method, both variables are well understood.
Only B has changed. You’re trying to separate A and add new uncertainty to it that doesn’t exist. The pathology of the injury itself and the recovery time needed for a pro pitcher to pitch again haven’t changed. The “risk” of failure/setback remains the same as ever, which of course isn’t zero.
Side note: in medical terms, recovery time is a big part of “risk,” for multiple reasons. Reducing invasiveness *is* reducing risk.
These are all good points but I think we’re arguing about different things maybe–I hear you saying that there is no greater risk biologically in this procedure and that it is reducing risk from a biological perspective which may in fact be true. Though, I would argue that this is not proven, which is why people are viewing this as a revolutionary procedure AND timeline. If it works, it’ll be game-changing for pitchers. If it was not risky from a biological perspective, then I don’t think we would be paying as much attention to it.
I’ll frame what I’m saying a different way, because I’m not particularly concerned about the biological risk–I’m not a doctor so I really don’t understand that as well as you do. What I am saying is that the risk is in the decision-making, which I would argue is clouded by team-needs and agency pressure to get him the biggest deal possible (a quicker return shows his durability and health and erases doubts in teams’ minds about investing the largest contract in a pitcher ever). The question I’m asking isn’t “can the body handle this recovery timeline in theory?” but “are the people making the decision to return him so quickly being influenced by factors that have nothing to do with Skubal’s arm?” The new procedure may enable him to return quicker but is that the right thing to do. Is the decision being made because of his actual health and response to the procedure or for other, less defensible reasons. I don’t know the answer to that question and that is why I phrased it as risk not as certain to fail.
The secondary question to what I’m asking is whether the risk is worth the potential reward. The Tigers are only 5.5 games out of a WC spot right now. Does having him back on June 13th markedly improve their playoff odds than giving him even one more rehab start or two and getting him back at the end of June? This is why I make the comparison to the Angels likely not rushing their 4th or 5th starter back so soon–the decision seems to be being made for team-oriented and contract-oriented reasons and not for biological reasons.
I think the Tigers’ medical staff and Skubal himself knows more about “risks” than you claim to do since you have zero access to Skubal’s medicals and prognosis reports.
Appreciate the clarification. Again, I’d say you’re conflating “new”(-ish) with “risk.” There simply isn’t any more “risk” baked into Skubal coming back now from this procedure than there would be with him coming back on the previous timeline from the previous approach.
In fact, there is less overall risk now, because one of the major vectors for complications has been removed. Does that make more sense?
Remember how far out the Tigers were in June 2024?
I think the Guards and Sox better watch out, cause I think the Tigers are doing it again
I am curious who drops out of the rotation. Montero has been pretty good. Verlander is also coming back soon and they aren’t moving Valdez to the bullpen. Does Flaherty keep his spot? What about Melton? I think Melton goes to the pen. Maybe a six man for a bit to give the injured guys more time?
Melton is a starter. Putting him in the pen hurts his future. Flaherty should be sent to the pen.
I could see Montero optioned to Toledo even though he’s a decent back end guy.
Verlander is giving up dingers to Triple-A hitters. Whether he’s working on stuff or out of gas is the question.
Montero pitching today probably shows he will be optioned back to Toledo or sent to the bull pen.
If the Tigers can get near .500 by the All Star break they’ll be in good shape. Getting players signed from the draft will bring about the decisions on who to move on from at the deadline. I’m more than ready to see any guys come up from the farm, and other than McGonigle or Dingler, I couldn’t care less about who they keep or move. The team feels like its lacking something somewhere. Those two guys are the only ones I’m voting for everyday for the All Star game. GO TIGERS !
I would keep Riley along with McGonigle and Dingler. Clark needs to get hot at Toledo so he can get called up.
They are not calling Clark up this year.
A) They are not burning his rookie status for next year
B) He will not be able to work out during lock out if he is on the 40 man
C) They refuse to cut guys not hitting above their weight to make room
They could call him up in September and not loose his rookie status. Still if they want to win they need to try some young guys and cut the dead weight. Either that or f’it and trade Skube and Mize for the best deal.
Clark did not look ready the two times I’ve seen him in person this season. Max Anderson or even fringe guy Corey Julks are more likely to come up.
I agree Clark probably isn’t ready but he seems to kick it into gear when he has McGonigle batting behind him lol. I like Anderson, I would be ok with him taking Shorts spot(McKinstry can back up at short) . Unless they changed Julk’s hitting mechanics or something he is a AAAA player. He showed flashes with Astros and White Sox but never put it all together. He seems like a good club house guy though.
Julks is better than Jahmai Jones. Anderson is too but he can’t play outfield.
Julks has never played as well in the majors as Jones did last year. Jones also has never played that well before or since. Julk is a better defender too.
I would actually prefer they cut Jone and give Ben Malgeri a chance. He is younger and actually hitting a little better than Julk’s.
Anderson is defensively challenged.
Hunter Greene should’ve gone to Skubals doctor.
Right?!?!?
He tried to, but he couldn’t locate it.
I think they might be trying to show he is healthy so they can trade him. I don’t think you rush back a player for a “run” when you are 8.5 games out.
And only 5.5 games out of the wild card places. Go on a run, the Tigers will be in the thick of things.
Getting Mize and Skubal might give the Tigers the push they need to gain ground in the division. A lot can happen between now and the trade deadline.
They needed a fun sunny summer day at the ballpark like today. The first fun game in a long while for the team free of stress. GO TIGERS !
Get ready Guardians and White Sox, the Tigers are about to get hot in historic fashion