The 2026-27 qualifying offer will come in around $23.1MM, per the calculations of MLB Trade Rumors contributor Ethan Hullihen. The official number likely won’t be released by MLB until October.
As a refresher on the system, a team can extend a one-year qualifying offer to an impending free agent if he played the entirety of the just-finished season on one team and has never previously received a QO in his career. Teams have until five days after the World Series to decide whether or not to issue a QO to an eligible player. The players then usually have ten days to asses the market before deciding whether or not to accept, though the most recent offseason gave the players 12 days.
If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team is entitled to compensation in the form of an extra draft pick. The value of that pick varies, depending on whether the team is a luxury tax payor or a recipient of revenue sharing. Conversely, the signing team is subject to draft and international bonus pool penalties, which are also dependant on tax payor/revenue sharing status. If a player rejects a QO but ultimately re-signs with his previous team, no penalties or compensation picks are applied. These links have details on the penalties and compensation in 2025.
The value of the QO is determined by averaging the salaries of the 125 top-paid players in the league. The value generally increases over time as player salaries continue rising with inflation. Here are the QO values in past seasons:
- 2012-13: $13.3MM
- 2013-14: $14.4MM (8.3% increase from the year prior)
- 2014-15: $15.3MM (6.3%)
- 2015-16: $15.8MM (3.3%)
- 2016-17: $17.2MM (8.9%)
- 2017-18: $17.4MM (1.2%)
- 2018-19: $17.9MM (2.9%)
- 2019-20: $17.8MM (-0.6%)
- 2020-21: $18.9MM (6.2%)
- 2021-22: $18.4MM (-2.6%)
- 2022-23: $19.65MM (6.8%)
- 2023-24: $20.325MM (3.4%)
- 2024-25: $21.05MM (4.6%)
- 2025-26: $22.025MM (4.6%)
- 2026-27: $23.1MM (4.9%)
If MLBTR’s estimate proves to be fairly accurate, then this would be the fifth straight year of the QO rising by roughly $1MM. The percentage jump would be the greatest in the past four years. The only bigger percentage jumps in the past ten years were in seasons following slight drops.
For most players who receive a QO, it’s a formality to turn it down and then sign for a much larger guarantee on a multi-year deal. Last year was a notable exception as 13 players received a QO and four accepted: Gleyber Torres with the Tigers, Shota Imanaga with the Cubs, Trent Grisham with the Yankees and Brandon Woodruff with the Brewers. That’s an acceptance rate of over 30%. Of the 144 players to receive a QO in previous years, only 13 accepted, a rate of barely 9%.
Going into this offseason, most of the top free agents will be QO candidates, though there are some exceptions. Michael King already received a QO from the Padres last offseason. If he opts out of his contract and returns to free agency, he would not be eligible for another. The same would apply to players like Bo Bichette or Corbin Burnes, though neither player currently looks likely to opt out of his current deal. Guys like Grisham, Imanaga, Torres, Woodruff, Kevin Gausman, Sonny Gray and Nick Martinez have also received QOs earlier in their careers. If any notable free agent gets traded this summer, then they would become ineligible to receive a QO at season’s end since they would not be spending the entire campaign with just one team.
Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images
Nice job Ethan.
5 years straight went up by a million, so not too tough to estimate…
I have put a bunch of hours into working up this estimate–it would be hard to count them–trust me when I say I didn’t just increase it a million.
Thanks for your calculations and your contributions to MLBTR, Ethan.
But, you did.
oldgfan: ~”I will let someone else do the hard work, I will glance at the numbers and draw a conclusion using my back of the envelope read of things and conclude it is a simple calculation.”
Exactly
oldgfan
5 years straight went up by a million
===============
1-I think you meant to say it went up by $1M ONE straight years.
2-All four others were by less than $1M.
3-The first of the 5 that you mention is only .675M, which is decidedly less than $1M, unless you work for the government.
It’s an interesting mental exercise, although adding another $1M probably doesn’t induce a player to accept the QO. I always thought the QO system was a bit of distraction for the MLBPA–took their attention away from bigger issues that they should have been focussed on. It ought to be a sideshow, but if a new system comes in it might be more relevant at the margins of whatever caps/floors they put in.
Article should mention that players who become free agents because they declined player or mutual options rather than because they made it to 6 years of service time or their contract expired organically are still eligible for QOs, assuming they meet all the other eligibility requirements.
Way too much.
One step closer to the salary cap owners want.
Ah, shut up. It won’t happen.
NEEDS to happen! I’m tired of the Dodgers
It WON’T happen, whether you like/hate the Dodgers or not.
Lockout here we come
@cleveland. Very crabs in a bucket mentality. “My team won’t spend more, so make others spend less”
The Q.O. was offered by the owners in order to get rid of the old Elias A/B free agent compensation system. The Q.O. currently works in their favor.
I much preferred the old A/B system. Why do you think the QO favors the owners.
Moot.
Too rich for my blood. lol
If there is a lockout, will that be zero?
If there is a lockout, they can’t extend the offer. And there will be a lockout So by default, the answer to your question is yes.
No, a possible lockout would happen after QO decisions are made.
Current CBA is in effect until December 1. Decisions for teams to extend QO’s, and for players to accept or decline them, will all happen prior to that date.
We saw exactly that situation occur with the 2021-2022 lockout, which started 12/2/2021 and ended on 3/10/2022 when the owners and MLBPA agreed on a new CBA. Teams extending QO’s and players deciding whether to accept them still occurred as scheduled in November 2021.
You are correct. I don’t know why I had last game of the world series as the timing for it in my head.
Thanks for the projection!
Astrol projection?
I wish my salary increased like that
You should’ve became a professional baseball player, loser.
You don’t know how to post nicely do you ?
I’m only rude to people who dislike MLB players
I don’t like the owners either
How does one equate someone wishing their salary increased by a million dollars a year with disliking MLB players? I like MLB players. I also wish my salary increased by a million dollars a year. No need for conflict whatsoever.
I love baseball.
I’d like to make $1M a year at anything.
Some folks are just prone towards being hostile.
You clearly don’t know this guy’s previous comments…
You should take a look at this guy’s previous comments
Life is far too short to hold grudges on a website. I could never be bothered.
Josh, do you see a therapist ?