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Archives for September 2007

A-Rod, Partial Cubs Owner?

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UPDATE: Boras debunked the report.  Well, it was fun to discuss for a few hours.

Deadspin’s Will Leitch has an article in New York Magazine dissecting the Alex Rodriguez opt-out situation.  Leitch, through a source, has a new piece of info for us sure to generate some discussion.  He lists the Red Sox and Cubs as the teams most likely to lure A-Rod away from the Yankees, and lays out a unique Cub contract possibility:

Scott Boras knows which [ownership] group is most likely to be awarded the Cubs. The source says Boras has already been in touch with that group about the possibility of a contract that could reach $30 million a year over the next ten years while deferring a certain portion of money toward an eventual stake in the franchise.

David K. Li’s source feels that this might constitute tampering.  The group Leitch is likely referring to is the one headed by John Canning, who is currently a part-owner of the Brewers.

Pretty wild stuff.  Cubs fans can salivate over a lineup featuring Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and A-Rod.  Keep all of those guys healthy the next few years and they could have the league’s best offense.  Still, ten year contracts are pretty rare and quite risky.  It’s tough to project a player more than a few years out, but it’s going to take at least eight years to sign Rodriguez.

The Cubs have roughly $110MM on the books for 2008 (more on that in a separate post).  They entered the ’07 season with a payroll right around $100MM.  Even in a backloaded deal I’d imagine A-Rod would earn $20MM+ in his first year.  So if the Cubs want to go past the $130MM mark, they could have Rodriguez.  That’d put the Cubs third in payroll behind only the Yankees and Red Sox.

Ed Wade: Houston’s New Rocket Man

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"Houston, you have a problem" was probably the initial reaction anyone who follows the Phillies, or baseball for that matter, had when they heard that the Houston Astros had hired Ed Wade to be their new general manager.

Wade was fired from that same post in Philadelphia two years ago after failing to compose a team to reach the playoffs — and brutally suffering for it publicly — during his eight year tenure in town (1997-2005).

Even a few years out from Wade, the Phillies’ last October appearance dates back to the mullets and beards of 1993.

But that’s another story.  The issue at hand is whether or not Wade is a good hire for the Astros.  That’s hard to say unless you were one of the lucky fans chosen at random to sit in on the interview process, but it is possible to judge Wade’s history with Philadelphia and then consider if his strengths and weaknesses are suitable to the Astros’ needs.

If you scan the field at the start of a Phillies home game, you’ll see that six of the starting "everyday eight" were acquired under Wade’s watch, and they make up the most potent lineup in the National League

  • Pat Burrell was drafted, developed, and, for better or worse, signed to a long-term contract.
  • Shane Victorino was acquired in the Rule 5 draft.
  • Jimmy Rollins, a strong contender for this year’s MVP award was developed and signed to a bargain of a long term contract.
  • Another MVP candidate and the best second baseman in baseball, Chase Utley, was drafted and developed under Wade and signed to a long term contract under Wade’s successor, Pat Gillick.
  • First baseman Ryan Howard was drafted and developed well enough under Wade to win a Rookie of the Year award and then an MVP award in the two years since Wade left.
  • Rookie starting catcher Carlos Ruiz was signed by Wade as a 19-year old out of Panama.

Wade also drafted the Phillies’ three best pitchers: Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, and Brett Myers, and at one time, traded away their worst, Adam Eaton, only for him to be re-acquired under Gillick’s regime. Let’s not forget, before he was general manager, Wade campaigned hard within the Phillies to trade for Bobby Abreu before anyone knew who he was (Kevin Stocker was the "bait" that eventually landed him).   That’s quite a nucleus, no doubt about it. [An aside:  Critics will point out that one of Wade’s assistant GM’s, Mike Arbuckle, who’s still an assistant in Philadelphia, was responsible for acquiring that nucleus, not Wade.  That might be true, but consider these two points: even if Arbuckle did acquire all of that talent, Wade was smart enough to let him do it, and second, when general manager vacancies arise, Arbuckle is almost never a name that comes up, at least not publicly.]

After that nucleus however, the bullet points in Wade’s resume are a little harder to come by.  In ballyhooed off-season moves, Wade acquired Jim Thome, Billy Wagner, David Bell, Eric Milton, Kevin Millwood and Andy Ashby, none of whom were able to get the nucleus over the hump and into the playoffs.  Prior to that he got very little in return for Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen, both players having made it clear they wanted out of Philadelphia.  The best piece from both of those deals, Placido Polanco [apologies to all of you who still think that some day Vicente Padilla is going to finally "get it"], was eventually dealt to the Detroit Tigers, where he’s flourished, for Ugueth Urbina (currently playing as number 283948 in the Venezuelan Penal League) as a rental in 2005.

Other water that flowed under Wade’s bridge were several trades where the Phillies gave up several forgettable minor leaguers (to name a few: Taylor Bucholz, Eaton, Elizardo Ramirez) for several forgettable relievers (to name a few: Todd Jones, Terry Adams, Mike Timlin) and his penchant for handing out no-trade clauses in contracts, an obstacle Gillick has had to deal with on numerous occasions.

The trend is clear:  Wade was able to develop a very fine nucleus, one that is scoring runs for the Phillies in bunches, but was unable to add the necessary supporting pieces, even after he was given an adequate budget to do so in the later years of his tenure.

In other words, Houston, he’s shown he can get you to the launch pad, but don’t hope for the moon.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff ("Phillies, Eagles, golf, and other matters of great importance…") and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere"..

More On Bonds

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All the sportswriters have had a chance to weigh in on possible destinations for Barry Bonds in 2008. Here’s a summary.

The Miguel Tejada Situation

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Jeff Zrebiec, who does a fine job covering the Orioles for the Baltimore Sun, has a thorough dissection of the Miguel Tejada situation.  To sum it up:

  • The general sentiment within the organization seems to be that Tejada has slipped significantly on defense.  There’s talk of moving him to third base and Melvin Mora back to the outfield.  It seems that Tejada would be open to this.  As we saw with Alfonso Soriano, he really doesn’t have a choice.
  • Zrebiec says that trade rumors will again swirl around Tejada this winter. He didn’t want to move to third base for the Angels; has anything changed?  Tejada again has no choice here because he does not have a no-trade clause.  He makes $13MM in ’08 and the same in ’09.
  • Tejada’s OPS is down to.800, lowest it’s been since ’03.  It’s high time to trade him; Zrebiec talked to some execs who think the Orioles can still get two high-ceiling prospects.
  • If the Orioles want Tejada at third, I imagine an acquiring team would too.  Conveniently, the free agent market for 3Bs is weak beyond A-Rod and Lowell.  The Tigers, Twins, Angels, Phillies, Astros,  Brewers (Braun to left), Dodgers, Giants, or Diamondbacks could look to use him there.  The Cubs and White Sox seem more likely to try him at shortstop.  Tons of options here.

Giants Won’t Sign Bonds In ’08

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Barry Bonds has been told by the Giants that they will not be offering him a contract for the 2008 season.  The team is holding a press conference, but Barry beat them to the punch on his website.  He’s a tad perturbed that the team didn’t inform him of this decision earlier.

Bonds’ last paragraph:

I would have loved nothing more than to retire as a Giant in the place where I call home and have shared so many momentous moments with all of you, but there is more baseball in me and I plan on continuing my career. My quest for a World Series ring continues.

So he’s coming back in ’08.  This is shaping up to be an exciting offseason. 

Let’s assume Barry moves to the AL to serve as a DH (not a lock, but for the purposes of this post).  Here’s a run-down of the 14 American League teams.

  • Orioles: They could probably make room at DH, with Aubrey Huff, Jay Gibbons, Kevin Millar, and Miguel Tejada splitting time there this year. But the O’s probably want to distance themselves from the steroid stink and may trade Tejada.  Nick Cafardo said in August that there is some support for Bonds in the organization, but the O’s want to get younger.  More specifically, in December John Shea said Jim Duquette liked the idea of pairing Bonds with  Tejada.
  • Red Sox: I don’t see Big Papi moving to first, and you’d damage the defense by always having two of Bonds, Ramirez, and Ortiz on the field on a given night.
  • Yankees: This year, the DH spot has been shared by Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, and Hideki Matsui for the most part.  With older guys on the roster, you’d rather have the spot free to use to rest people.  Damon could be moved, but Giambi will be making $21MM and you’d rather not see him at first base.
  • Devil Rays: John Shea says Bonds wouldn’t have gone to St. Petersburg had the Giants moved there in ’93, implying he dislikes the area so much that this can’t happen.  I like the Rays as a dark horse but they are going to need the DH spot if they’ve got Crawford, Upton, and Young set in the outfield.  Jonny Gomes and Rocco Baldelli still need to play.
  • Blue Jays: They’re paying Frank Thomas $8MM to DH.
  • White Sox: With Thome and Konerko locked in, there’s just no room.
  • Indians: Mark Shapiro wasn’t in on him last year, and his DH spot is occupied by Travis Hafner.  I don’t see it.
  • Tigers: Sheff’s making $14MM next year to DH.
  • Royals: If they’re truly committed to using Billy Butler at first base next year, they could have room.  This is not the craziest idea in the world, but wouldn’t gel with Bonds’ World Series goal.
  • Twins: Received a woeful .267/.341/.384 line from the DH spot this year among many players.  Bonds would help the Twins, but they still don’t seem a likely fit for each other.  Plus, Bonds would cost upwards of $10MM.
  • Angels: You’d rather not take the DH possibility away from Vlad, who’s used it for 36 games this year.  But Bonds could take the field 30 times without killing himself or the team.  I like the match – West Coast, the money is there, the need is there, the risk is limited. A healthy Juan Rivera could cause a jam though.
  • Athletics:  The A’s seemed open to Bonds last winter, but the main concern was price.  This is a distinct possibility if Bonds comes down to the $10-12MM range.
  • Mariners: He’d help the offense for sure.  But Jose Vidro and Raul Ibanez are both under contract for ’08.  Vidro can only play the field a couple of times a week and you’d rather not see Ibanez out there.  To put them both on the field at the same time would be especially ugly.  Even if Jose Guillen departs I don’t see it.
  • Rangers: Bonds was supposedly close to signing with a "mystery team" last winter, and that was later identified as the Rangers.  Sammy Sosa actually hit decently as the DH this year (.272/.322/.492).  Ron Washington and Sammy both want the relationship to continue.  Still, Sammy might accept a part-time role.  It would be interesting to see Bonds and Sosa as teammates, that’s for sure.  Not out of the question.

Nate Silver places odds for Bonds signing with each of the 30 MLB teams.  He favors the Padres, though Ken Rosenthal recently said Bonds in the NL looks like a longshot.

Neal Huntington To Helm Pirates

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According to John Perrotto of the Beaver County Times, the Pirates are likely to hire Neal Huntington as their next GM.  Huntington is currently a special assistant to Mark Shapiro in Cleveland.  Perrotto believes Huntington could be announced Monday.

Cory Humes of Pittsburgh Lumber Co. has been Googling his heart out to dig up more info on Huntington, so I refer you to him.

Huntington appears to love the scouting aspect of the game.  There’s a lot of good info and quotes from this 2005 Jerry Crasnick article, though it’s behind the ESPN Insider wall.  Paid content is dying…I’m waiting for ESPN to go the way of the New York Times and knock down the wall.  No one is going to subscribe to ESPN to read this Huntington article, but if it was freely available they’d get a ton of traffic and make money off ads on it.  And while I’m on my soapbox: pay-for-subscription websites shouldn’t show ads to its subscribers.

Tigers To Exercise Pudge’s Option?

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Tigers catcher Ivan Rodriguez has a $13MM option for ’08 with a $3MM buyout attached.  Last we’d heard, the Tigers were likely to exercise it for lack of a better option.

Tom Gage of the Detroit News believes not only that the Tigers will exercise the option, but that privately the team has already committed to it.  Gage mentions that Pudge is seen as a symbol of the team’s rebirth and that he’s been far too jovial in the clubhouse for a guy with an uncertain future.  Wow, that last sentence was really poorly written.

Gage also adds that Nate Robertson is the Tiger most likely to be traded.  Robertson’s salary will climb past $4MM in arbitration.  Personally I think they should hang on to him instead of selling low.  But even following an off year he’d be highly sought after this winter.  I like Robertson quite a bit in the NL.  He could have a Ted Lilly-like transformation.

Gage mentions a $20MM escalation in payroll for current players, but I’ve found the net effect to be a $7.5MM increase.

Johan Santana To Buy Home Near Minneapolis

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Now that’s a headline for a slow news evening.  I’d say slow news day, but Ed Wade was hired and that was something to talk about.  Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press says Johan Santana will soon close on a pricey new home not far from the Twins’ ballpark.  Word is that Santana strongly considered buying an awesome one-bedroom condo in Lombard, IL but ultimately changed his mind.

I had a little bit too much fun with Google Maps today…here’s a look at Johan’s 23 mile commute to work, whether it’s the Metrodome or the new ballpark in 2010.  Does the purchase imply that Santana will take a huge discount to stay with the Twins when his contract expires after the 2008 season?  Not really.  Athlete real estate purchases are overrated; a couple mil to an athlete is nothing.  The house isn’t going to compel Santana to sign a below market deal if he otherwise wouldn’t.

Bucs To Let Chacon, Armas, Izturis Go

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According to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Pirates are likely to cut ties with three of their veteran players this winter: Shawn Chacon, Tony Armas Jr., and Cesar Izturis.  As it should be.

Chacon, 29, has been decent in relief (3.52 ERA in 76.2 innings).  His 1.7 K/BB is worrisome, but Chacon has always been prone to the free pass.  One change is that Chacon is back to getting groundballs near a league average rate, as he did when he succeeded with the Yankees in ’05.  While Chacon wanted to stay, a contract of at least two years, $8MM would be required.  Such a deal just doesn’t make sense for Pittsburgh.  $3.8MM off the books when Chacon leaves.

Armas was a bad move by Dave Littlefield in the first place.  He was predictably bad this year.  Then again, I didn’t think much of Steve Trachsel in the AL East and the O’s spun him into two useful players (Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry).  Anyway, the Pirates will give those 93 innings Armas ate up to a younger player in 2008.  That’s $3.5MM off the books.

Izturis was an odd acquisition.  I think Littlefield expected to move Jack Wilson when he acquired Izturis.  When that fell through the Pirates just looked silly.  The Cubs paid the Pirates an undisclosed amount of cash to take Izturis so I can’t say how much is off the books here.

The result of dumping this trio is $8MM to play with for the next Pirates’ GM.  Let’s hope he or she uses it wisely for once.

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