Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Archives for September 2007

Needs and Luxuries: San Francisco Giants

By | at

Time for a look at the 2008 Giants.

C – Bengie Molina
1B – Dan Ortmeier
2B – Ray Durham
SS – Kevin Frandsen
3B – Rich Aurilia
LF – Fred Lewis
CF – Dave Roberts/Rajai Davis
RF – Randy Winn/Nate Schierholtz

SP – Matt Cain
SP – Tim Lincecum
SP – Barry Zito
SP – Noah Lowry
SP – Kevin Correia/Jonathan Sanchez

Setup: Brad Hennessey/Tyler Walker
Closer: Brian Wilson

Needs

The Giants rank 13th in the league in OBP and 15th in SLG – and that includes 500 plate appearances of Barry Bonds.  Take Bonds out of the picture in ’08 – a legitimate possibility – and you’re looking at the worst offense in the league.

Durham, Roberts, and Aurilia have been offensive black holes for the Giants, and they’ll be eating up $18.5MM as members of the ’08 club.  Feliz and Vizquel have been terrible as well, but at least their contracts are up.

I have to stop right here and say that this team absolutely must write off 2008 as a complete rebuilding year.  There’s just not enough offensive talent, young or old, to field a competitive team.  When teams fully commit to a rebuild, like the Devil Rays, Marlins, or Nationals, unexpected good players typically emerge.  The Giants need to find the next Dan Uggla or Carlos Pena. 

In the infield, you’ve got two dead weight veterans and an open left side of the infield.  I say you just use Frandsen at short all year.  He may not have the arm for it but he could have a nice little Ryan Theriot season before shifting to second in ’09.  Don’t give up on him if he has a bad two months.  Stick Aurilia at third for lack of a better option, and use Ortmeier at first all year.  Let him get comfortable at the position and not worry about losing his job. 

The outfield is a jumble of bad veteran contracts and mildly promising youngsters.  Here’s my plan.  Ship off Winn and the $16.25MM remaining on his contract for 2008-09.  He had a .775 OPS in ’07, respectable if he’s used in center.  Eat $6MM of the contract – it’ll be worth it to free up precious playing time for players who will be part of the future.  Once Winn is gone, relegate Roberts to firm fourth outfielder status when he’s healthy.  (I’d say move his contract too, but let’s not get greedy). 

That leaves some power in Schierholtz, a speed/power combo in Lewis, and blazing speed in Davis.  Give these guys much-needed Major League reps and don’t be a slave to your own bad contracts.

So the 2008 need for the Giants is to truly commit to giving as much playing time to young players as possible.  They have to find some cheap position players who are at least league average.

Luxuries

If we use the term luxury generously, we can label a few vets as such.  Those would be Molina and Winn, who have bad contracts but played OK in ’07.  If these guys can be moved for a positive return, it’s a no-brainer.  If Sabean could duplicate his Matt Morris feat and unload the entire contracts, it would be huge.

The one true luxury, though, is starting pitching.  You aren’t going to find many young 1-2 punches in baseball that are decidedly better than Cain/Lincecum.  These two are the future – the main goal for ’08 is to not wreck their arms.

Lowry should’ve been traded at the deadline.  I know McCovey Chronicles has been pushing for this for a while.  Lowry had a 3.92 ERA this year despite a ton of baserunners.  He’s doing an OK job trying to become a groundball/contact pitcher.  He’s 27 and signed reasonably through 2010.  The problem is that an elbow strain may cause other GMs to view him as damaged goods.  That’s a shame, because he might’ve extracted one or two very good and much-needed position players given the terrible free agent market.  Could Garrett Atkins, Brent Lillibridge, Edwin Encarnacion,  Steven Pearce, Conor Jackson, or Jeff Clement be acquired?  If Lowry can re-establish his health, that’s the route I attempt.

I don’t think the bullpen is terribly important for ’08.  I’d like to see what Wilson can do with a closer job.  Sanchez should be brought along in the rotation.  Maybe make an Octavio Dotel-type signing, someone you can spin off in July.

Clemens Back In Houston Next Year?

By | at

Astros fans: would you welcome Roger Clemens back with open arms in 2008?  Would this be a good way to spend $15-20MM?  Do you think the new general manager would entertain the possibility?

I ask because of this note in Will Carroll’s column today:

Clemens was reported to have avoided Torre’s calls, and while their relationship has never been close, it’s never been unprofessional. On top of this are some whispers that the Hendricks’ have started asking around regarding interest in Clemens’ services for next year, notably back in Houston.

Another winter, another round of Roger?  If Clemens does want to return in 2008, there’s no better place to leave on a high note than the NL Central.  But first he’ll have to prove his elbow is OK; he recently deemed it "pretty nasty" in there.  Clemens has a chance to climb to third all-time for career wins if he can manage another two seasons.

Yankees Or Retirement For Pettitte

By | at

On September 6th, Jayson Stark mentioned hearing speculation that Andy Pettitte would opt out of his contract after the season and become the best available starter.  But even then his source thought Pettitte’s main motivation would be to get more money or years and stay with the Yanks.

It’s clear now that Pettitte has no interest in sparking a bidding war for his services, even if he could.  According to Ed Price of the Newark Star-Ledger, it’s the Yankees or retirement for Pettitte in 2008.  It’s kind of like Kenny Rogers’ situation, only with an added focus on the desires of family.  Reading the quotes from Pettitte, it almost seems like he could just exercise the $16MM option rather than opt out to extract a few more million from the Yankees.  He just seems like the kind of guy who wouldn’t care.

You know what would be kind of funny?  If the Astros somehow convinced him to return, gave him $16MM, and then his elbow blew up.  OK, that might not be funny for some people.

Glavine In ’08 – Undecided

By | at

I just read seven articles about Tom Glavine, all brought about by yesterday’s New York Post exclusive from Kevin Kernan.  As Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog notes, it doesn’t seem necessary to worry about Glavine’s future until after the playoffs.  Nonetheless, here’s where we stand this morning.

  • Mark Hale of the New York Post says the Mets are again interested in signing Glavine if he decides to pitch.  Unlike Kernan’s story yesterday, Hale does not say that Glavine would decline his likely $13MM player option to sign for $12MM.  If he pitches – if – it will again come down to the Mets or Braves.  The Mets are the favorite.  Omar Minaya will wait for Glavine to come to him.
  • Joel Sherman, also for the New York Post, writes that Glavine was exactly what the Braves needed this year.  He thinks the Braves would’ve been in first right now if they’d signed Glavine for the discounted $10MM or whatever.  I agree – Glavine is in general worth about six wins over replacement in a single season, and the Braves have had plenty of replacement level-pitching this year.
  • Roger Rubin of the New York Daily News tosses in the idea of a Roger Clemens "family plan" for Glavine in ’08, where he’s only required to be with the team on days he pitches.
  • David Lennon of Newsday spoke to a Mets official who feels it’s unlikely any extension gets done before the offseason.
  • Don Burke of the Newark Star-Ledger says nothing’s really changed in the Glavine situation.  He also gently chides the Post yesterday for their "breathless" headline.
  • Glavine spoke to Steve Popper of the Bergen Record in double negatives just to increase confusion.
  • Ben Shpigel of the New York Times thinks Omar Minaya would be inclined to decline Glavine’s $13MM option and negotiate something at a lower price.  But everything I’ve read has called it a player option, so I’m not sure if Minaya can do that.  Shpigel thinks that if Glavine pitches, it will "almost certainly be with the Mets."  He also notes Shawn Green musing on his future.  Green’s $10MM option for ’08 will be bought out for $2MM, and the outfielder doesn’t want a utility role if he plays next year.

Odds and Ends

By | at

Here are some interesting links for Tuesday evening…

  • Tim Marchman has a reasoned discussion of Alex Rodriguez’s possible destinations, and considers the Red Sox and Dodgers as the favorites (unless Brian Cashman goes back on his word and negotiates after A-Rod opts out).  Indeed, we learned in July that the Red Sox will make a "huge push" for Rodriguez.  We also determined that they’ll have an extra $31MM to play with even if they keep the payroll steady.  They could bump the payroll just a tad to $150MM to account for some role players.
  • Lynn Henning wrote yesterday about former Pirates GM Dave Littlefield’s strong relationship with current Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski.
  • Fire Joe Morgan takes on Mike Pagliarulo.
  • Adrian Beltre: underpaid.

Saito Hopes To Pitch In 2008

By | at

According to Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times, Takashi Saito wants to pitch a third season for the Dodgers in 2008.  With a 1.73 ERA in 135 career innings, Saito’s finishing up perhaps the best-ever two-season run by a Japanese pitcher.  Some folks are comparing him to Dennis Eckersley, though Saito doesn’t know who that is (hat tip to East Windup Chronicle).

Hernandez questions how Saito would react if another team were to offer him more money.  However, I don’t think that’s an issue here.  As he was last year, Saito is tied to the Dodgers by his service time.  He’s not a free agent this winter.

The massive success of Saito, Hideki Ojakima, and others can only lead to an increase in demand for Japanese relievers – especially given the low salaries.  Take free agent Koji Uehara.  Mike Plugh told me there’s no reason for MLB teams to consider him as a reliever even though he’s closed for all of 2007.  However, a recent Yahoo Japan article quotes an NL scout who thinks he would have more success in the pen.

Andruw Jones and the Nationals

By | at

When we last considered the idea of the Nats signing Andruw Jones, it was April and he seemed in line for a six or seven year contract.  The idea of bringing in Andruw was to create some goodwill with the fans through some rebuilding years, a la the Gil Meche signing in Kansas City.  The consensus of the commenters at MLBTR was that this was a bad idea.

Mark Zuckerman of the Washington Times re-started this conversation yesterday.  He notes that center field is still the Nats’ most obvious need.  Sorry, Nook.  Of course there’s the Stan Kasten connection and the new ballpark.   

However there is now one difference from our April discussion: Jones had an awful 2007 season.  His .314 OBP and .419 SLG are both his second-worst career marks.  Overall in his career he’s at .263/.342/.498.  I’d expect something more like that next year.

Andruw will be 31 when the ’07 season starts.  Given the decent-sized class of free agent center fielders, Scott Boras may apply an old tactic and get Jones a make-good one-year, $15MM deal to rebuild his value.  But many clubs could entertain a low-risk type offer, and maybe someone would cough up $20MM. 

We’ve seen one-year deals in the past when clients didn’t get the offers their agents wanted.  Examples:

  • Ivan Rodriguez isn’t the perfect example I’d originally thought.  Back in the winter of 2002-03, Rodriguez was 31 and coming off a strong season – .314/.353/.542 in 408 ABs.  His agent was Jeff Moorad at the time.  The Cubs and Orioles had interest, with the O’s offering three years at $6MM per.  Pudge wanted $11MM annually, and even bluffed about playing in Japan.  Eventually he went to the Marlins for one-year, $10MM, and led them to glory.  The Fish thought about offering 3/21 after that but Rodriguez switched to Boras and got 4/40 from Detroit.
  • Jeff Weaver had a strong 2005 season for the Dodgers, racking up his second consecutive 220 inning season and winning 14 games.  Interest was strangely tepid, so Weaver went to the Angels for $8.4MM and one year.  At that time it seemed like a nice move for L.A.  World Series heroics couldn’t snag Weaver a big contract last offseason, so he signed the same one-year deal with Seattle.  He should really try to rebuild his value in the NL.
  • The strategy worked perfectly for Kevin Millwood.  Elbow issues cut his 2004 season short so he jumped to the Tribe for one year and $7MM in ’05.  All he did for the Indians was win the AL ERA title.  That earned him a big ol’ 5/60 deal from Texas.   
  • Bengie Molina was coming off his best year, a .295/.336/.446 performance for the Angels in 2005.  The Mets apparently offered him 3/18, but then traded for Paul Lo Duca.  Other suitors dropped out and Molina had to sign with Toronto for one year, $5MM in February.  He had another good year and the Giants liked him for 3/16 the following offseason.

Blue Jays Sign John McDonald To Extension

By | at

The Blue Jays today signed defensive-minded 32 year-old shortstop John McDonald to a two-year, $3.8MM deal.  It’s still cheap enough where he can be used as a backup, which is important because shortstop is Toronto’s biggest need.  I could be wrong but it seems that no amount of defense short of Ozzie Smith himself could justify a .600 OPS over a full season.

Could Orioles Void Gibbons’ Contract?

By | at

Sean Welsh of the Baltimore Examiner has a source indicating that the Orioles may try to void the remaining two years and $11.9MM on Jay Gibbons’ contract based on allegations of steroid use. 

While the O’s wouldn’t mind getting out from the lousy contract they signed, it seems highly unlikely.  There’s no precedent for it; the Yankees wanted out of the Giambi contract and failed.  There’s no language in Gibbons’ contract about steroids.  He never failed a test that we know of.  And the original SI.com report doesn’t say Gibbons used steroids, just that he received them.

If somehow the Orioles did succeed, perhaps the Blue Jays would look into the same regarding Troy Glaus.  He’ll make $23.5MM over 2008-09 and has a full no-trade clause.  The Angels could try to void the Gary Matthews Jr. contract.  Perhaps if the Mitchell Report names certain players, that will carry enough weight to void contracts.  It’d still be tough to get past the Players Union though.

Glavine Likely To Pitch For Mets In ’08

By | at

The New York Posts’s Kevin Kernan has an exclusive report today on Tom Glavine.  He’s got many quotes from Glavine indicating that the 41 year-old southpaw will play another season and stay with the Mets.  Glavine’s family is encouraging him to play again.  He can also aim to improve his standing in career wins from 21st to 16th.

According to Kernan, Glavine will likely decline his player option and instead ink a new one-year pact for around $12MM.  That is curious to me because the player option is likely to reach $13MM if Glavine reaches 200 innings this year.

Kernan adds that the Braves could still try to lure Glavine back but it seems unlikely given the price.  However with the new ownership and the clear need for one good starter, the possibility can’t be eliminated.  If such a scenario does occur, the Mets could always make a similar offer to Curt Schilling.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top