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Archives for September 2007

Willis Wouldn’t Mind Playing In Philly

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Not exactly a rumor, but worth a mention.  This type of thing is common when teams meet up for a series.  We saw it with Aaron Rowand when the White Sox played the Phillies this year.

Though the Phillies tattooed Dontrelle Willis Sunday night, Willis’s friend Jimmy Rollins and teammate Brett Myers were discussing how they’d love to see him in a Phillies uniform.  Rollins suggested that Willis may be unmotivated in Florida.  He also added that he’s asked Dontrelle and confirmed that the pitcher would not mind playing for Philadelphia.  Of course, Willis doesn’t have any say in it.

I’ve heard estimates anywhere from $7-9MM for Willis’s arbitration reward this winter.  He made $6.45MM in ’07.  The Fish had a $30MM payroll on Opening Day of this year, and will owe Miguel Cabrera several million more in 2008.  So Willis should account for 20-25% of the payroll.

Will the Marlins pay up for one more year and hope Willis rebuilds his value?  Or will they opt to save the money now and trade him this winter?  The latter scenario seems more likely.  Even with his value at an all-time low it seems the Marlins could get one solid young player for Willis.  I speculated recently that there was a tiny chance the Marlins simply non-tender him…but even my assigned 1 in 100 odds on that seem high. 

Marlins GM Larry Beinfest can get one guy.  Michael Bourn would be a fine target.  Jim Salisbury suggests that the Marlins are fond of Shane Victorino.  The Phillies are trying to settle their outfield situation for 2008; as you know, Aaron Rowand is a free agent this winter.  Salisbury notes that the Phils might be gunshy about acquiring Willis given the whispers of possible health issues.  They can’t have another Freddy Garcia trade.

Olsen Not Worried About Samson

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Back in August, Marlins President David Samson said that Scott Olsen would not be welcome on the team if convicted on charges of DUI and resisting arrest.  Almost a month later, Olsen responded to Samson’s remarks.

Olsen doesn’t think Samson has any say in player personnel decisions and didn’t seem too concerned with Samson’s comments.  He said he wouldn’t be surprised to be dealt but expects to stay because he’s cheap.

The 22 year-old southpaw has had an awful sophomore season – all his peripheral stats have gone in the wrong direction.  After posting a 4.04 ERA last year, his ERA has never gotten below 4.55 in any month this year.  He’s still talented, and the Marlins would certainly be able find a few interested teams.  But it just seems a bad time to trade him.

Iguchi Could Return To Japan

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According to Yahoo Japan, the Yomiuri Giants are looking into signing free agent second baseman Tadahito Iguchi this winter.  However, my translator Tak notes that Iguchi is unlikely to return to Japan if MLB teams show interest in him.

Overall this season, the 32 year-old Iguchi is hitting .269/.349/.402 in 458 ABs.  He’s been better since jumping to the NL in a trade to Philadelphia: .313/.370/.450 in 131 ABs.

Iguchi is joined by Luis Castillo, Damion Easley, Marcus Giles, Mark Loretta, Kaz Matsui, and Jose Valentin in the free agent second baseman class.  He might be the best option at the position and could take a three-year, $12MM type deal comparable to Mark DeRosa’s.

Needs and Luxuries: Toronto Blue Jays

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Today, let’s dissect the Jays.  A look at their 2008 setup:

C – Gregg Zaun
1B – Lyle Overbay
2B – Aaron Hill
SS – John McDonald
3B – Troy Glaus
LF – Reed Johnson/Adam Lind
CF – Vernon Wells
RF – Alex Rios
DH – Frank Thomas

SP – Roy Halladay
SP – A.J. Burnett
SP – Dustin McGowan
SP – Shaun Marcum
SP – Jesse Litsch/Josh Towers/Gustavo Chacin

Closer – B.J. Ryan
Setup – Jeremy Accardo

Needs

In general, the Jays’ main deficiency this year has been offense.  Their .326 OBP ranks 12th in the AL, their .422 SLG is 8th.  The lineup has plenty of underachievers – Wells, Overbay, Lind, and Johnson to name the chief culprits.  Johnson seems like a non-tender candidate.  But the other three are simply better than they’ve shown in 2007.  Wells has been playing through a shoulder injury this year, and surgery will be considered after the season.  Overbay broke a bone in his hand in June; he was hitting .256/.332/.464 up to that point.  Residual soreness after the surgery has led to a .223/.303/.326 line since.  Getting Wells and Overbay 100% healthy for ’08 is crucial.  As unpopular as it would be, the Jays should probably shut them both down right now.

If Wells does have shoulder surgery, a stopgap CF like Kenny Lofton might be a wise move.  But the obvious need for the Jays is shortstop.  No use pining for the should’ve-been-drafted Troy Tulowitzki.  The free agent market is weak – David Eckstein, Cesar Izturis, Juan Uribe, and Omar Vizquel.  J.P. Ricciardi has to hit the trade market.

His primary options: Edgar Renteria, Jack Wilson, Miguel Tejada, and Rafael Furcal.  The last two may be just wishful thinking for various reasons.  And J.P. had this to say regarding the Wilson rumors back in July: "We have absolutely no interest in Jack Wilson.  None."  Maybe a new GM in Pittsburgh can change his mind.  Renteria seems the best choice; would the Braves trade him for Burnett?  The oft-injured righty may opt out of his contract after 2008.         

Luxuries

If the Jays have an abundance of anything, it’s pitching.  They have the second best ERA in the league at 3.96.  As I mentioned earlier, trading Burnett could make sense.

Ricciardi should seriously consider moving Marcum at the peak of his value.  The homer-prone hurler has a 3.45 ERA in 130 innings as a starter, based heavily on an unsustainable low rate of hits allowed.  I like him – he’s plenty useful and has done a great job this year.  But this would be a prime example of selling high.  Maybe the Dodgers would part with Chin-lung Hu.

Towers stands a decent chance of being moved if he’s not non-tendered.  As we’ve discussed here before, he can help an NL team.  Perhaps the Bucs would swap Wilson for him.

The bullpen should probably be left untouched.  The Jays could assemble an elite crew with Ryan, Accardo, Janssen, League, and others.  The volatility of bullpens and players coming back from injuries might be reason to keep the apparent surplus.

How To Use This Site: The Sidebar

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Let’s review the sidebar content here at MLBTR.

Here’s an important one: the MLBTR search box.  Scroll down a bit and you can’t miss it on the lefthand sidebar.  Type in any player, word, phrase, team, fragment, whatever.  Use it like you would Google.

Below that we have the MLBTR Features.  These are mostly the "series" type posts I do when I have some down time – Needs and Luxuries, GM Trade Profiles, and Team Outlooks.  I’ve also got the go-to list type posts, with the most popular being the 2008 Free Agents.  That one will always be kept up-to-date as players sign.

Then I’ve got our network, which basically consists of this site, RotoAuthority, and AllCubs.  RotoAuthority is my fantasy baseball site.  I try to post there at least once daily, and Adam Howe also pitches in.  Unfortunately I haven’t had time to post at AllCubs in quite a while.  That site instead relies on a roster of Cubs fans/writers I’ve recruited. 

Then you’ve got the 20 most recent posts.  Self-explanatory. 

After that is the Browse All Rumors section.  This is a great way to browse through player names.  Before the search bar I used this often to recall what I’d written on certain players.  For example, here are all the posts I’ve written that reference Hiroki Kuroda.

Then we have the Archives.  This contains the last 15 months, though if you click on the Archives hyperlink you’ll see that the site actually goes back to November of 2005.

Got A Rumor links to my main email address.  Feel free to drop me a line if you’ve got a rumor you haven’t seen on the site.  I read every email and appreciate 99.9% of them.  Sometimes I can take a while to reply though.

Then we’ve got the MLBTR Mailing List.  If you sign up for this, you’ll receive a daily email with all of my posts in full.  Your email adress will never be used for anything else.

Below that is Syndication.  Some of you know how "feeds," work, some don’t.  I just started using a feed reader a few months ago.  I’m glad I did.  Click here to read more about how these work.  We have over 4,000 feed subscribers currently.  Even if it’s new to you, give it a try!

Then we have Team Rumors.  Clicking on a team will show all posts that reference that team.  If you really only care about one club, you could just bookmark your team link and refresh that regularly.

Jon Garland For Brian Fuentes?

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As you know, Kenny Williams is looking for two relievers (one proven) for starter Jon Garland.  Part of the motivation is moving Garland’s $12MM salary in his last year before free agency.  You may also recall that the Rockies inquired on Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, and Garland this summer.  Talks stalled when the White Sox insisted on southpaw starter Franklin Morales or third baseman Ian Stewart.

According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post, the teams could re-engage in talks involving Garland.  The discussion would begin with lefty veteran reliever Brian Fuentes.  Renck believes Fuentes will make about $7MM in ’08, his last year before free agency.  So the White Sox would trim roughly $5MM from the payroll with such a move.  Perhaps Williams would ask for 23 year-old reliever Juan Morillo to complete the deal.  Morillo fits the "young reliever with closer potential" mold and was reportedly clocked at 104 mph a few years back (per Baseball America).

Jack Wilson Staying Or Going?

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Dejan Kovacevic and Rob Biertempfel both spoke to Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson recently.  While the quotes gathered from each aren’t mutually exclusive, they don’t seem to gel when compared.

The main point of Kovacevic’s section on Wilson is that he would like to stay in Pittsburgh, mainly because of the change in management.

Biertempfel had an extended Q&A with Wilson.  With him, Wilson speaks of a "very good possibility" this is his last season as a Pirate.  The shortstop has been mulling over some kind of goodbye to Pirates fans at the last home game this year.

Wilson’s OPS was down to .641 on July 28th.  But in 99 ABs since, Wilson hit .414/.474/.677 to raise his overall OPS to a more respectable .757.  The hot streak might make the shortstop’s contract go down a little more easily for another GM.  Wilson makes $6.5MM in ’08 and $7.25MM in ’09.  He has an $8.4MM option for 2010 with a $600K buyout attached.  Wilson can block trades to six clubs each year, but he told the Bucs in August he’d waive the clause for any trade.  The Pirates were in negotiations with the Tigers at one point.

Walters On Morneau, Santana, Nathan

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Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press has some Twins rumors for us today in his Don’t Print That feature.

  • Walters says Justin Morneau would be agreeable to a six-year contract if the Twins are interested.  Walters wrote back in March that the Twins were looking to add a fifth option year to Morneau’s contract at $14MM.  Morneau thought a deal was "pretty close" at that time but of course it hasn’t happened.  By my calculations a six-year contract would buy out three years of free agency.  So it wouldn’t be anything like Joe Mauer’s 4/33 deal.
  • The Twins are expected to make a five-year offer to Johan Santana but they might have to go to six to get something done.  Santana gets a full no-trade clause for 2008 if he finishes top three in the Cy Young voting this year.  Otherwise he can choose 12 teams he can’t be traded to.
  • Walters thinks there’s no chance Joe Nathan stays with the Twins past 2008.  Nathan did have some positive talks with the Twins back in April.

Kosuke Fukudome Targeted By White Sox, Giants?

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We’ve begun the Kosuke Fukudome Watch early here at MLBTR.  A lot of good info was revealed in our May 2nd interview with Mike Plugh.  A few months later Plugh wrote a more in-depth article about Fukudome at Baseball Prospectus.  Fukudome will be a free agent this winter and doesn’t require a posting fee.  The current estimate is $12-15MM annually over three or four seasons.  He’s currently recovering from elbow surgery but will be ready by spring.

There has been some confusion regarding Fukudome’s position.  While many have referred to him as a center fielder, Plugh told us he’s best in right field.  Plugh said Fukudome could handle center but his defense would be questionable there.  A return to the infield seems highly unlikely.

Fukudome’s position is an important question when it comes to the White Sox.  They’ve got Jermaine Dye locked in at right field, and there’s no where else for him to go.  They also want to try Josh Fields in left to leave room for Joe Crede at third.  Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune says Fukudome could be an option for the Sox in center if they don’t sign Torii Hunter.  Additionally, Susan Slusser tosses the Giants into the mix.  Apparently Dave Roberts and Randy Winn wouldn’t be considered obstacles.

A review of previous Fukudome rumors: Will Carroll said back in April that the Red Sox were eyeing him.  It seems the Sox would not have room for Fukudome though.  Rogers speculated in May that the Cubs could get involved.  Dan Graziano confirmed the Red Sox, Cubs, and White Sox while adding the Yankees to the list of suitors.

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