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2008 MLB Free Agents

Sox Owner Hopes Lowell Stays

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Congrats to Cubs, Red Sox, and Diamondbacks fans!  What a finish this year has been.

At the beer-soaked madness that was Fenway last night, Red Sox Chairman Tom Werner dubbed Mike Lowell the team’s MVP.  The Boston Globe reports when Principal Owner John Henry was asked if Mike Lowell would be retained, he said, "In Florida, Mike played for me three years, my first three years [as Marlins owner]. We sort of grew up in the game together. It would be a wonderful thing." 

As Tim pointed out here, Lowell could be open to a 2 year, $22MM contract to stay in Boston.  But Lowell has seen a gradual resurgence in offensive production, filling in effectively for the injured Manny Ramirez, hitting .325 this year with 20 HR and 118 RBI, an all-time club best for Red Sox third basemen.  Not to mention he plays arguably the best defense at his position in the American League.  And when you consider the only other two third basemen certain to enter free agency are Pedro Feliz and Mike Lamb, I suspect the market will be ripe for a talent like Mike Lowell.

While they can move Kevin Youkilis back to third, expect the Sox to make an offer to Lowell.  I would anticipate a 2 year deal, $20-24MM.

 

Posted by: Nat Boyle

2008 Club Options

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My, how things change.  Check out this post about 2008 club options, written back in April.  It’s time to alter the predictions on many of these with most of the 2007 season in the books.

Ivan Rodriguez – $13MM with a $3MM buyout.  Sounds like this will be Exercised, based on the latest reports. 

Adam Dunn – $13MM with a $0.5MM buyout.  Redleg Nation urges the Reds to pick this up, and I agree.  Then again, Dan Graziano said a month ago it’s "hard to see" the Reds exercising it.  At the least an exercise-and-trade seems in order, but then Dunn would have full no-trade protection until June 15th.  I say it’s Exercised, even if Jay Bruce is awesome.

Marcus Giles – $4MM.  No chance.  Declined.

Juan Uribe – $5MM.  This is still up in the air but I think the White Sox will move on, whether to David Eckstein or Miguel Tejada.  Declined.

Cesar Izturis – $5.45MM.  I was impressed and surprised that the Cubs didn’t give a ton of PT to Izturis just because he was the return for Greg Maddux.  I can’t see the Pirates’ new GM exercising this, in any case.  Declined.

Geoff Jenkins – $9MM.  He’s been sitting against lefties a lot, and has had an OK year.  But this seems too steep even as an exercise-and-trade. Gabe Gross is ready for regular duty, so look for Kevin Mench to be non-tendered as well.  Declined.

Bobby Abreu – $16MM with a $2MM buyout.  Exercised, as discussed earlier.

Jose Guillen – $9MM with a $0.5MM buyout.  The smart move would be to exercise this and then move on in ’09, but that won’t work because Guillen can void it and forfeit the buyout.  Which he would.  Why even have the option then?  Last we checked the Mariners were working on an extension with him.  Declined.

Shawn Green – $10MM with a $2MM buyout.  Even at an effective $8MM this is easily Declined.  Green may choose to retire if no one wants him to play regularly.

Randy Wolf – $9MM with a $0.5MM buyout.  Wolf signed a below-market deal to play in L.A. last winter; he could’ve gotten two or even three years guaranteed.  The option will definitely be Declined but Wolf hopes to return at a lower salary.

Paul Byrd – $8MM with a $0.25MM buyout.  After ’06 I thought this was an easy decline, but it’s the complete opposite given Byrd’s fine season and various struggling Indians.  Exercised. 

Kris Benson – $7.5MM with a $0.5MM buyout.  Rotator cuff surgery knocked him out this year.  Declined.

Odalis Perez – $9MM with a $1.5MM option.  Finished for the season with a knee strain.  Regardless he’s not worth $7.5MM. Declined.

Jason Isringhausen – $8MM with a $1.25MM option.  The Cards want to scrap this and give him a deal for 2008-09.  So technically it would be Declined. 

Mark Ellis – $5MM option with a $0.25MM buyout.  Ellis has had a solid year, hitting .276/.339/.437 with 17 HR in 529 ABs.  He’s also known for playing fine defense at second base.  But the A’s are cost-conscious and could fill the position internally with Donnie Murphy.  Ellis at $5MM might have some trade value given the fairly weak market for second basemen.  I’ll lean toward Exercised. 

Octavio Dotel – Player option to reach $6.1MM if he reaches 25 games finished (currently has 23).  Club may void option if he exercises it.  This is an interesting scenario.  Dotel got $5MM guaranteed last winter when he was a huge question mark.  Would he set his own value at $6.1MM?  And if does, would the Braves as well?  Dotel’s player option is like Jose Guillen’s where in all likelihood it means nothing.  My guess is that Dotel opts for the open market, hoping for a 3/18 deal on par with Danys Baez’s.  Declined.   

Steve Trachsel – $4.75MM with a $0.1MM buyout.  Normally I would say this is an easy decline.  But in this day and age, 160 innings of 4.75 ERA ball might be deemed worth it by some clubs.  Probably not though – Trax is still probably valued close to this year’s $3MM salary and wasn’t a hot commodity last winter.  Declined.   

Opinions?  Borderline players I’ve missed?

Baseball Free Agent List

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I’ve done some work to shore up my baseball free agent list for the 2007-08 offseason.  I’ve made necessary additions like Carlos Silva and many others, while also putting the players in alphabetical order by last name.  I’ll always keep this list up-to-date and on the sidebar under MLBTR Features.

2008 MLB Free Agents

2008 MLB Free Agents: Ramon Castro

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One name not originally on my list of free agent catchers this winter was the Mets’ Ramon Castro.  I didn’t view him as a potential starter.  But with nine homers in 124 ABs for the Mets this year, Castro could move to the front of a weak class of catchers.  Assuming Jorge Posada and Ivan Rodriguez never hit the open market, that leaves Castro, Michael Barrett, Paul Lo Duca, and Jason Kendall.  Let’s take a closer look at Castro.

Castro was picked 17th overall by the Astros in the 1994 draft.  A couple of other backstops went a few picks before him – Jason Varitek and Paul Konerko.  Castro was a 22 year-old with a .759 OPS at Double A back in 1998 when the Astros decided to trade him to Florida for reliever Jay Powell.  Powell was very solid for Houston, a team that won the NL Central easily that year. 

Castro spent most of ’99 in Triple A, posting a .757 OPS with decent power.  Florida’s "Catcher of the Future" was recalled in August and got his feet wet with 67 ABs that year.

He seemed on the inside track to split catching duties with Mike Redmond in March of 2000.  However, the Marlins chose to keep Sandy Martinez and send Castro back to Triple A to start the season.  This time, Castro mashed Triple A pitching – .335/.380/.628 – and made the All-Star team.  The Marlins called him up in late July.  He became the team’s #1 catcher, but didn’t hit.

Not comfortable with Castro as their starter anymore, the Marlins went out and signed Charles Johnson for the 2001 season.  Though Castro was out of options, the Marlins sent him to Triple A in April and he surprisingly cleared waivers.  Still only 25, Castro again posted an OPS over 1.000 at Triple A.  Teams started calling Dave Dombrowski, interested in making a deal.  Castro earned only a September call-up in ’01.  The Blue Jays expressed interest that winter, but Castro stayed put.

Castro seemed certain to be traded heading into 2002, but an injury to Johnson opened the door for him to begin the season with the Marlins.  An elbow issue surfaced in May, but Dr. James Andrews deemed it a sprain and Castro was back by mid-June.  Castro received only 101 ABs that year, but did begin to show some power with a .455 SLG.

Heading into 2003, the Marlins still didn’t have faith in Castro so they signed Ivan Rodriguez to a one-year deal.  Good idea.  Castro stuck in the Majors most of the year but got only 53 ABs as the third catcher. 

Then in late August of ’03, Castro was arrested on a rape charge.  A few days later he posted bond and rejoined the Marlins, declaring his innocence.  His hearing was postponed, but the Fish didn’t put him on the playoff roster.  Prior to the hearing, Castro signed a one-year, $400K deal for 2004 with the Marlins.  He entered a not-guilty plea as the trial was pushed back to October of ’04.  Most of the playing time went to Mike Redmond that year, and Castro hit the DL in June with an inflamed toe.  Mike Lowell suggested that the impending trial contributed to Castro’s .135/.231/.260 line in 2004.

Assigned to Triple A in October, Castro opted for free agency instead.  As for the trial, the charge was reduced to misdemeanor indecent assault and Castro plead no-contest.  The plea did not acknowledge wrongdoing.  Castro was sentenced to a year of probation.

In December of 2004, new Mets GM Omar Minaya signed Castro to a minor-league deal.  He spent some time on the DL for a sprained quad, but still racked up a career-high 209 ABs as Mike Piazza’s backup.  He posted a decent .756 OPS.

The Mets signed Castro to an $800K deal for ’06, but a strained rib cage caused him to miss time.  While rehabbing that, he tore his medial meniscus and needed surgery.  He finally made it back at the end of September, but it was a lost year.

Castro signed for $850K last winter to again serve as Paul Lo Duca’s backup.  Lo Duca hasn’t been healthy or hitting, and Castro’s having his best season with an .889 OPS. 

In 119 games as a Met, Castro has a .255/.324/.455 line with 21 HR in 459 ABs.  One has to wonder if he could do that in a single season.  If so, he’d be one of the better catchers available.  In the past, Castro has shown the ability to throw out 30%+ of would-be basestealers.  However, he’s nailed just two of 25 this year.  Mets fans – what’s up with that?

Teams like the Devil Rays, Mets, Cubs, Astros, and Padres may all be looking for catchers this winter.  Castro should get consideration as a regular, and might be a decent buy at two years, $8MM or so.

Mailbag: Musical Chairs In Center Field

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Feel free to hit up the mailbag at mlbtraderumors@gmail.com.

Rusty from San Diego writes:

Given the large list of potential free agent CFs for 2008, which teams do you think are likely to replace from within the organization, which ones are likely to retain their current guy with a new deal, and which are likely to sign one of the many free agents? Who is going to make the biggest splash in the CF market? Who is going to make the biggest mistake?

Interesting question.  First, a review of available players who can play center:

Ichiro Suzuki
Andruw Jones
Torii Hunter
Eric Byrnes
Corey Patterson
Milton Bradley
Aaron Rowand
Mike Cameron
Kenny Lofton

At the least, we have to figure out what the Mariners, Braves, Twins, Orioles, Phillies, Padres, and Rangers will do in center field.  Other teams that could acquire a CF: Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Nationals, Marlins, and Pirates.  About 9 CFs (if you count Byrnes and Patterson), anywhere from 7-13 teams with a possible need.  A lot of different combinations.

Mariners – Bring up Adam Jones to play center field; let Ichiro go.  Jones, hitting .318/.388/.594 in Triple A before his 22nd birthday, is the real deal.  The Ms could always retain Ichiro and use him in right field, but I see them as more likely to invest in pitching this offseason as a reaction to their current staff. 

Braves – Sign Cameron, let Andruw go.  This has been speculated by Ken Rosenthal and others, and it makes perfect sense to me.  For the Braves’ sake, hopefully a two-year contract.

Twins – Sign Lofton, let Hunter go.  The first part is just a guess, but the Twins are never big spenders and I don’t see anyone who can step up from within.  Bradley could be another option here.  The Twins are still in a pennant race, so they can’t afford to trade Hunter for a prospect-type CF.

Orioles – Sign Andruw Jones, let Patterson go.  Could Andruw be the next face of the franchise?  Miguel Tejada may be on his way out, and acquiring/signing Mark Teixeira is no small task.  If the O’s get Matt Wieters signed, negotiating with Boras on a huge deal like Andruw’s seems more possible.  Plus, Andy MacPhail and the Cubs have never had issues with Boras.  I’ll call this one the biggest mistake.     

Phillies – Let Rowand go, fill internally.  The Phils have two solid center field candidates in Michael Bourn and Shane Victorino, so I think Rowand is a goner.

Padres – Sign Rowand, let Cameron go.  Just a guess here, I have to fit the pieces somehow.  We know the Padres have some interest in Rowand, and they seem unlikely to pony up for one of the Big Three.

Rangers – Sign Hunter, let Lofton go.  Will Jon Daniels use 2008 as a rebuilding year?  It seems unlikely to me, given some of the large unmovable contracts on the roster.  Why not add another in Hunter?  Vernon Wells is no longer an option, and the Rangers don’t have anyone in the pipeline.  Andruw could certainly make sense here too.

Red Sox – Continue using Crisp, promote Jacoby Ellsbury early in the season.  I think the pressure of being Boston’s Opening Day CF could be too much for Ellsbury, but waiting a month or two could alleviate the pressure.  That’s about the most the Sox could take of Crisp.  Slight chance of a stopgap insurance plan like Bradley or Lofton.

Yankees – Stick with Damon.  Not ideal, but the Yanks are locked in with Damon and may have much more pressing needs to fill this winter.

White Sox – Sign Ichiro.  This just seems right.  It would help bring some attention back to the South Side following what could be a very ugly second half.  Any kind of fire sale is going to leave fans bitter, and making a splash with Ichiro could help ease the pain of losing Mark Buehrle.  Of course, Rowand remains a strong option as well.  I’ll call this one the biggest splash.

Nationals – Sign Patterson.  Toolsy, Bowden’s type (assuming Bowden is still around).  My guess is that C-Patt’s awful ’07 coupled with the surplus of available CFs leaves him with a weak Ron Belliard type deal.  As a Boras client, he’ll probably be encouraging to sign for only one year as an attempt to re-establish value.

Marlins – Fill position without free agency.  It’s been a while since the Fish had a decent, regular CF.  I predict that by the end of this season, they’ll acquire a young player.  Could be Elijah Dukes, could be Matt Kemp via a Dontrelle Willis trade, who knows.

Pirates – I was going to conveniently slide Eric Byrnes in here, but that doesn’t make sense.  Byrnes is set to snag a three-year deal.  Let’s sidestep him by saying he signs on somewhere to play a corner position.  The Bucs will perhaps employ some sort of stopgap and hope Andrew McCutchen is ready by All-Star break ’08 or even sooner.  The kid needs to figure out Double A first though.  He’s only 20.

Weigh in below!  How would you sort this thing out?

Posada Leads Free Agent Catcher Class

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If you’re looking for a catcher this winter – and many teams will be – you probably have to put Jorge Posada at the top of the list.  His incredible season couldn’t have come at a better time.  Here’s the list of possible free agent starting catchers, with their 2008 age in parentheses:

Jorge Posada (36)
Ivan Rodriguez (36) – $13MM club option for ’08
Paul Lo Duca (36)
Michael Barrett (31)
Jason Kendall (34)

When we last checked in on Pudge’s option, Ken Rosenthal said the Tigers were "almost certain" to exercise it.  For the sake of argument, let’s say Kendall’s recent resurgence is for real and allows teams to consider him as a starter.  That means four available catchers: Posada, Lo Duca, Barrett, and Kendall.

Barrett is the youngster of the group, and before this season began I would’ve ranked him first.  But even a biased Barrett fan such as myself must admit that his stock is falling rapidly with the altercations, mental gaffes, and subpar offensive performance.      

Despite the power outage, Lo Duca should be a respectable choice for some team not planning to spend $10MM+ a year on a backstop.  Posada, though, is where it’s at.  He’s showing no signs of age and is the type of player GMs love.  And a catcher who can easily post an OPS over .800 is a major asset.

Contract talks with the Yankees from last spring have been tabled as Posada prefers to focus on playing.  It seems like both sides want him to finish his career as a Yankee, though there is some uncertainty in Posada’s comments.  He’s keeping his options open.  I think it will require four years and maybe $48MM. 

Plenty of teams would line up for Posada – the Angels, Mets, Phillies, and Astros come to mind.

Olney On The Center Fielder Market

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The upcoming offseason will feature roughly nine viable free agent center fielder options (2008 age in parentheses):

Ichiro Suzuki (34)
Andruw Jones (31)
Torii Hunter (32)
Eric Byrnes (32)
Corey Patterson (28)
Milton Bradley (30)
Aaron Rowand (30)
Mike Cameron (35)
Kenny Lofton (41)

There’s the Big Three, then second tier options with various flaws (not that the Big Three are without flaws).  Of the second tier, Rowand and Byrnes have seen their stock rise this season.

Interestingly, Buster Olney believes that Cameron will draw heavy bidding.  Olney sees Cameron landing in Atlanta; Ken Rosenthal reached the same conclusion back in April.  I know Cameron is seen as the default CF bargain, the guy with a solid all-around game who will slip under the radar.  However, we know Cameron wants three years.  Assuming he doesn’t repeat his April performance, $30MM over 2008-2010 would be a reasonable prediction.  Not sure that’s going to end well.

Olney also predicts Torii Hunter will land in Texas; we’ve discussed that here before and it seems reasonable.  The remaining question: where do Ichiro and Andruw end up?

Olney sees Ichiro with the White Sox.  I like the match.  Fits their style, sparks fan interest.  Do I think it’d be a smart signing?  No.  But I can see it happening.  One would almost rather prefer Darin Erstad and his .685 OPS, as at least that comes cheap.

Buster’s prediction for Andruw is the Mariners.  However, the Ms do have a fine prospect for the position in 21 year-old Adam Jones.  Despite his age Jones is responding to the challenge of Triple A with a .302/.388/.503 line.  I know the Mariners make some bad decisions but even they have to let the kid play.  This could be the next Carlos Beltran or Vernon Wells (both land within Jones’ top ten comparables).   

Olney eliminates the Mets, Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, and Cubs from next year’s CF suitors.  Yet there should still be plenty of teams looking to fill the position.  The Orioles will be looking for a replacement for Patterson and might spend some money.  I have no idea what the Twins will do if Hunter walks.  Maybe the Marlins will finally pony up some cash and get a center fielder.  The Phillies and Padres could have vacancies if their current guys leave.  The Brewers could shift Bill Hall to right.  The Pirates could get in the game.  The Giants have Dave Roberts and Fred Lewis, but could make a play for Ichiro nonetheless.   

It’ll be fun to see where all these center fielders end up once the dust settles.  I do agree with Olney in that there may be a bargain or two.

Who’s Catching For Mets In ’08?

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Paul Lo Duca’s contract is up after this season.  As you may recall, Lo Duca’s reps brought up the idea of an extension at the Winter Meetings in January, but the Mets didn’t want to discuss it yet.  Lo Duca, 35, makes $6.25MM this season.

We know catchers don’t age well; there’s a decent chance Lo Duca tanks in 2008 (if not this year).  PECOTA might throw him another $5-6MM for ’08, but that’s about it.  The Mets are right to hesitate.

Assuming they cut him loose, they could look internally for their new backstop.  Ramon Castro might be able to start, or at least serve in a platoon.  Castro, 31, has hit a respectable .247/.328/.440 with 15 HR as a Met in 352 ABs.  But while Lo Duca has gotten a lot of grief in the New York papers, it’s Castro with the true blemish on his record.  It didn’t stop the Mets from signing him initially though; such offenses are often ignored by teams. 

Interestingly, Castro could back up Ivan Rodriguez for a second time if the Mets sign him this offseason.  Castro was behind Pudge in ’03 for the Marlins.  Earlier this week, though, I predicted that the Tigers will exercise Pudge’s $13MM option, if not extend him even further.     

The two legitimate free agent options for the Mets appear to be Michael Barrett and Jorge Posada.  Barrett is five years younger, and could post his best season in 2007.  Plus, the Cubs haven’t really made any effort to extend his contract.  Jason Kendall will be out there as well, and he’d probably take a shorter-term deal. 

2008 Club Options

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Instead of rehashing the usual Jacque Jones/Jose Capellan trade rumors, let’s take a stab at predicting whether teams will exercise their 2008 options.

Ivan Rodriguez – $13MM with $3MM buyout.  Pudge will be 36 in 2008, but his defensive value and continued pop seem to justify the $10MM difference.  Exercised.

Adam Dunn – $13MM.  What team wouldn’t sign Dunn to a one-year, $13MM contract for his age 28 season?  There’s a chance the Reds will cut ties – maybe 25%.  It might be that they talk a big game, complain about his strikeouts, but ultimately exercise it.  The Cardinals took this route with Jim Edmonds last year.  Even if Wayne Krivsky exercises it and then shops Dunn, it’d be better than just letting him walk to save the money.  Exercised.

Marcus Giles – $4MM.  I know, it’s just 75 ABs.  But Giles looks rejuvenated as a Padre, hitting .347/.386/.493.  At this price Kevin Towers can’t go wrong.  Exercised. 

Juan Uribe – $5MM.  Uribe is doing his usual thing, hitting for power with no plate discipline.  Combined with good defense at a premium position, this is worth the price.  The White Sox don’t have any viable alternatives.  Exercised. 

Cesar Izturis – $5.45MM.  Lou Piniella doesn’t seem very tolerant of Izturis’s anemic bat, opting to get Ronny Cedeno’s anemic bat in the lineup in recent days.  It would be a feather in Jim Hendry’s cap if Izturis cemented himself as the Cubs’ shortstop, as he was the return in the Greg Maddux trade.  But I think the Cubs will look for something better at short, and at least entertain Alex Rodriguez.  Declined.      

Geoff Jenkins – $9MM.  If Jenkins continues to sit against lefties, he can put up his best rate stats in a while.  But I don’t see the Brewers volunteering for another season with a $9MM platoon player.  Declined. 

Bobby Abreu – $16MM.  He’s off to a nice start, but has just two extra-base hits.  This option is going to be a tough call.  If Abreu scores 140 runs or something, can Cashman really cut him loose?  On the other hand, are the Yankees going to be paying $16MM for another Brian Giles next year?  It could go either way, but I’ll say Declined. 

Jose Guillen – $9MM.  Too early to tell, but that’s the fun of this exercise.  One certainty is that Jim Bowden is glad he didn’t give Guillen that five year, $50MM deal he wanted.  Since we haven’t seen signs of life from Guillen since 2005, I’ll go with Declined.

Shawn Green – $10MM.  No chance the Mets want him around in ’08 at that price.  Declined.

Randy Wolf – $9MM.  Yes, Wolf’s contract was a huge bargain, but it was more a hometown discount than a brilliant move by Ned Colletti.  Any GM would’ve taken him at that price.  Wolf doesn’t need to maintain his 3.38 ERA to justify the option; he just needs to toss 200 innings with an ERA in the low 4s.  Exercised. 

Paul Byrd – $8MM.  This should be an easy one for Mark Shapiro, as he’s got plenty of cheap pitching talent in the pipeline.  Even with the price of pitching as it is, a 37 year-old Byrd isn’t worth it.  Declined.   

Kris Benson – $7.5MM.  With another year of mediocrity, Benson might’ve gotten this exercised.  However, rotator cuff surgery makes this an easy decision.  Declined.

Odalis Perez – $9MM.  Dayton Moore got a half-price deal on Perez, as the Dodgers are picking up some of the tab.  It was a reasonable gamble, and hopefully he can spin Odalis for something this summer.  No team is picking up that option though.  Declined.

Jason Isringhausen – $8MM.  Assuming Izzy stays healthy, the Cards will be happy to pick this one up.  So far, so good in the early going.  Quite a recovery for a guy thought to be finished last August.  Exercised.

Your turn – where do you disagree?  Abreu, Dunn?

Buehrle’s Stock Rising

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Mark Buehrle’s brilliant no-hitter last night still might not be enough to secure him a contract extension from the White Sox.  Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune certainly expects him to hit the open market after this season.

For one night at least, he looked like the Buehrle of old.  And the Buehrle of old is worth a truckload of money in the current market.  Buster Olney believes he’s comparable to Barry Zito, and that the Mets and Red Sox could get involved.

Most folks think Buehrle will end up joining his hometown Cardinals, which could involve a small discount.  But it’s still a complete unknown here in April.  We don’t want to jump the gun – Buehrle had a fantastic April in 2006 (2.57 ERA, 0.89 WHIP).  A typical Buehrle season – 230 innings, sub-4 ERA – would put him in line for the best long-term free agent contract for a starter.  That assumes Carlos Zambrano signs.

There are a couple of guys who would make awesome mercenaries for 2008 – John Smoltz and Curt Schilling.  Smoltz probably remains a Brave if the team comes in with a somewhat fair offer, but Schilling could spark a bidding war. 

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