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Archives for April 2008

2008 Draft: Philadelphia Phillies

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We’ll be looking at the 2008 draft over the next few months here at MLBTR. Mike Arbuckle, the Phillies assistant GM, took some questions from fans regarding the draft and the team’s farm system. Here are the highlights:

  • When asked what positions the Phils are seeking, Arbuckle gave the right answer. "You have to be very careful about trying to draft toward a particular position, simply because of the time it takes to develop players to get to the big leagues…So you try to draft the best available player in each round, the guy that we would view as having the highest ceiling."
  • On the slotting system: "I think generally we have been a club and are a club that tries to do what’s best for the industry." The Phillies have generally stayed within the vicinity of slot.
  • On college players vs. high school players: "In comparing high school to college players, generally the college player is nearer to being the finished product. So you can’t project as much on a college player as you would a high school player."
  • On the Phillies farm system: "I think the strength is double-A down, so I think our better prospects are younger kids."

Arbuckle was noncommittal when asked about what the team plans to do with Pat Burrell when the season is over. He also gives some takes on specific players in the Phillies system.

Posted by Joe Pawlikowski .

Free Agent Stock Watch: Ben Sheets

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It looks like Ben Sheets made the right decision by signing a four-year contract with the Brewers after his spectacular 2004 season. The then-25-year-old tossed 237 innings to the tune of a 2.70 ERA, striking out 264 to just 32 walks, with a WHIP below 1.00. Those are absolutely insane numbers, but because his team was lousy, he finished just eighth in the Cy Young voting. (To be fair, Randy Johnson should have won it, with Sheets a close second.)

Since then, Sheets hasn’t pitched more than 157 innings in a season due to a number of injuries. He’s still managed sub-4.00 ERAs in those seasons, though, a testament to his superior talent. But if he can’t stay healthy, he can’t expect a team to invest big dollars for even four years. His most recent injury does not help allay those fears.

Despite the injury — which seems minor — Sheets has been game-on in his walk year. In his 28 innings this year, he’s struck out 24 to just four walks, and allowed just 14 hits, for a nifty WHIP of 0.64. Time will tell if he can hold up for the entire season, missing the occasional start here and there, as he might next time around the rotation.

So what’s a team in need of pitching to do? If Sheets gets to 190 innings this year, do you gamble four years and, say, $65, $70 million on him? It’s an enormous risk, but if Sheets can stay healthy for three of those four years, it could be well worth it. He joins the top of a free agent pitching class that includes C.C. Sabathia and Carl Pavano Derek Lowe.

Any guesses as to where Sheets goes and for what? I’ve got the Mets at three years and $55MM.

Posted by Joe Pawlikowski.

Odds And Ends: Lowry, Street, Farnsworth, Roberts

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Just a few loose links for Saturday morning.

  • Billy Beane has talked to Alan Hendricks, agent for closer Huston Street, about an extension. However, they have been informal talks, with no specifics to mention. Don’t expect much movement on this front until we get deeper into the season and see where the A’s really stand.
  • Brian Roberts is relieved now that the trade rumors are dead. "I know where I’m going to be on a nightly basis now, at least," Roberts said. "It is a relief because I think everybody wants stability in their life, but I understand that doesn’t always happen. If it comes up again, I’ll deal with it."
  • Brian Sabean talked about the possibility of a six-man rotation once Noah Lowry returns to action in May. The article says that this "ensure that the youngest and most prized starters, Cain and Lincecum, are not overtaxed in a rebuilding season." But you still need them to get their innings in. Lincecum, for instance, pitched 177.1 innings last year. You’d like to get him to 200 this year, which would be difficult in a six-man rotation environment.
  • It looks like Kyle Farnsworth will be suspended for throwing at Manny Ramirez the other night. I know it’s not a transaction rumor. But won’t punishing retaliation just mean more preemptive aggression?

Posted by Joe Pawlikowski, who writes for River Ave. Blues, a Yankees blog.

Upton In No Rush For New Deal

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Could the Rays have started a new trend by locking up Evan Longoria after just 24 major league plate appearances? Probably not, though we have seen teams locking up players earlier and earlier. The Rockies secured Troy Tulowitzki for the next six years, with a $15MM option for a seventh. And the D’Backs decided they want Chris Young around through at least 2013.

The Diamondbacks have another player who stands to make some decent cash before he reaches free agency: Justin Upton. The youngest player in baseball is off to a scalding start after struggling in 152 plate appearances as a 19-year-old last year. He will be eligible for free agency after the 2013 season, and will enter the 2014 season at age 26.

Upton hasn’t been approached by the Diamondbacks about an extension, but he’s not sweating it. "I want to get through my first season," Upton said. "I’m not going to rush into anything." Indeed, it might be in his best financial interest to let this play out. Or, at least, take the Alex Rodriguez path and not sign a deal that takes him past his first year of free agency.

At 26 years old, Upton will be in high demand in the 2013-2014 offseason. In fact, with Miguel Cabrera locked up through 2015, at which time he’ll be entering his age-31 season, it stands to reason that Upton could be the next $200MM player. Then again, we said the same thing about Cabrera, and things didn’t quite turn out that way.

If Upton keeps up his hot hitting throughout the season, I wouldn’t expect him to sign any deal, options or not, that takes him past 2013, try as the Diamondbacks might.

Posted by Joe Pawlikowski.

Who Needs A Backup Catcher? Part II

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Two weeks ago, we discussed who would be a good fit for catcher Humberto Quintero, who had been designated for assignment by the Astros on March 31. It turns out he cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA Round Rock, where he played just one game before being recalled. He went 2 for 4 with a double before being DFA’d again, this time to make room for Kaz Matsui.

Astros GM Ed Wade on the situation: "We think he’s a big league catcher, has big league ability, but we can’t carry three catchers." That’s a very insightful statement. No, you can’t carry three catchers if you’re stocking 12 pitchers. It’s just that I’d far rather keep the 28-year-old guy with plus defense over the 39-year-old who hasn’t been good in a very long time.

Last time around, we had talked about the Red Sox and the Giants as possible suitors. The Orioles were a possibility, though the timing might not be right. They’d have to unload Ramon Hernandez first, and he’s off to a horrible start. The Reds were brought up in the comments, and that seems to make sense, too. If Paul Bako’s OBP doesn’t drop 100 points over his next 70 at bats, I might eat my shoe.

You’d think the Yankees might be interested, given the injuries to Jorge Posada and Jose Molina. But Posada won’t hit the DL — and could be catching again within the next few days — and Molina will be back in due time. Plus, Chad Moeller has been filling in admirably (same disclaimer with him as with Bako).

Posted by Joe Pawlikowski, who writes for River Ave. Blues, a Yankees blog. Rumors are slow this time of year, so if you see something, say something.

Odds and Ends: Tejada, Howard, Johnson

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Couple more odds and ends this evening…

  • Orioles executive VP Mike Flanagan admitted he wouldn’t have signed Miguel Tejada to a six-year deal if he knew the shortstop’s proper age.  But he still would’ve signed him (if possible).  People are debating whether ESPN ambushed Tejada with his birth certificate…of course they did.
  • Ken Rosenthal believes the optimal course of action for the Phillies is to just let Ryan Howard play out the string and then let him walk as a free agent after the 2011 season.
  • Rays Index says the Dan Johnson acquisition signals a "win-now" attitude for the Rays.

Stark’s Latest: Stanton, Hamels

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ESPN’s Jayson Stark has a new Rumblings and Grumblings column up.

  • The Rays may have a pitching surplus when Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza return in May.  Teams will probably be eyeing Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, and Andy Sonnanstine – not that the Rays are anxious to give them up.  Jackson seems least likely to go.  If I had to pick a team deficiency perhaps it would be their middle infielders.
  • The Phillies have "mild interest" in Mike Stanton, who would like to play for them.  The Phils already inked Steve Kline to a minor league deal though.
  • The Braves are looking for relief help, as you might expect.  Here’s my available relievers list from April 7th; one addition might be Derrick Turnbow. 
  • Stark sees little chance of the Phillies signing Cole Hamels to an extension.  He notes that Hamels’ agent has demonstrated an aversion to club options for free agent years.  If the Phils just want to buy out the three arbitration years, the going rate is $13.75MM for young starters.
  • For the first time this year, top-rated amateur players will be tested for drugs prior to the draft.  It will be nice to nip the problem in the bud with some guys. 

Rays Claim Dan Johnson

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According to Susan Slusser, the Rays have claimed first baseman Dan Johnson off waivers.  She expects him to put in time at DH while Cliff Floyd is out for the next month or so. Johnson moves from McAfee Coliseum (deflates LH HRs by 10%) to Tropicana Field (inflates LH HR by 4%).

You can read Johnson’s story here.  He should be a decent stopgap for Tampa Bay.

Rays To Sign Longoria Long-Term

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12:23pm: MLB.com has the particulars: $17.5MM guaranteed over six years, with the potential for $44MM over nine years.  I like this unprecedented move by the Rays.

11:25am: Rosenthal says it will be something like $17MM over six seasons plus options for two free agent years.  There will also be incentives along the way.

10:45am: Ken Rosenthal has the scoop.  It’s a long-term deal for Evan Longoria.  I definitely didn’t see this coming – he only has six games in the bigs!  Interesting move.  I’m curious to see if the Rays snagged options for any free agent years.

10:12am: Baseball Digest Daily reports that the Rays have a press conference and major announcement planned a couple hours from now.  No one has any idea what it’s about.

Barry Bonds signing?  B.J. Upton extension?  Something about the new stadium?  Let’s hear your guesses.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Derek Lowe

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I was skeptical when the Dodgers signed Scott Boras client Derek Lowe to a four-year, $36MM deal in January of ’05 following an awful season for Boston.  Lowe proved his detractors wrong by demonstrating durability and effectiveness over his first three Dodger seasons.  He’s off to a nice start in this year as well. 

Since the beginning of the ’05 season, Lowe’s 3.64 ERA ranks 11th among all starters with 600 innings.  He doesn’t get enough credit – he’s been a legitimate #1 starter during this contract.

Lowe will sign his next deal as a 35 year-old (he hasn’t had any extension talks with the Dodgers).  Despite Lowe’s age, I have a hunch Boras can squeeze at least three years out of some team.  PECOTA wouldn’t pay more than $20MM for his 2009-11 seasons, though his market price should be twice that.  Other top free agent pitchers next winter include Oliver Perez, C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, and possibly A.J. Burnett.  Lowe is likely to require the shortest term.

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