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Archives for April 2008

Blocked Prospects: Joe Koshansky

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25 year-old first baseman Joe Koshansky played for the same University of Virginia team as Ryan Zimmerman and Mark Reynolds. Like Reynolds he was drafted in 2004, falling (to the surprise of some) to the sixth round (pick 190).

He’s moved steadily through the Rockies system and in 2005 was named Baseball America’s Rockies Minor League Player of the Year after hitting .291/.373/.603 with 36 home runs in 453 A ball at bats. He’s maintained similar averages at Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Colorado Springs, although his power has steadily declined.  On top of that, Koshansky plays at the highest elevation of any pro park in the country. 

He’s also a bit of a stikeout artist — once every four plate appearances through his minor league career. In this sense he’s the antithesis of Todd Helton, the guy currently occupying first for the Rockies. Unless Helton (signed through 2011 for a mountain of money) goes into severe mid-30s decline or is injured Koshansky is officially blocked at first.

Koshansky has said he’s open to moving to a corner outfield position, but with Brad Hawpe having signed an extension, and ongoing talks to sign Matt Holliday long term, a switch to the outfield is even less likely than getting past Helton. For the time being he’s stuck in Colorado Springs where he’s currently leading the team in both HRs and total bases to go along with a .441 OBP.

Time to cast this line out and see who’s biting. With Franklin Morales off to a terrible start and Mark Redman being Mark Redman, one would think the Rockies might be on the lookout for a starter come July. Flipping Koshansky could be the ticket.  The Rox were able to snag a couple of live arms back in ’06 when they traded Ryan Shealy to KC. 

Aaron Shinsano writes for East Windup Chronicle.

Odds and Ends: Hatteberg, Colon, Longoria

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And now for more Odds and Ends around the league:

  • In his latest "Full Count" audio piece at Fox Sports, Ken Rosenthal expects the Reds to do some roster shuffling that could come down to trades.  Scott Hatteberg has become "expendable" with the recent emergence of Joey Votto and by the fact that the Reds have too many lefty hitters.
  • Cork Gaines latest Baseball Blogs Weigh In delved into the Evan Longoria signing.  To add to that, Ken Rosenthal, also in his Full Count piece, notes favorably that Longoria has set himself for life without having to establish himself and that his payday will come at age 31, still in time for a 4-5 year deal.
  • The Boston Herald’s reporting Bartolo Colon could opt to leave the Red Sox if he’s not in the bigs by May 1st. Manager Terry Francona hopes he will "forego the decision for a while (most likely until May 15)."  With a recent setback being the reason he’s not in the majors, I don’t see him going anywhere just yet.
  • An amusing quote from columnist John Mehno of the Beaver County Times on whether the Pirates can be expected to lock up any of its young talent: "Given the lack of can’t-miss prospects in the system, Pirates rookies intent on becoming instant millionaires should probably keep buying lottery tickets."

By Nat Boyle

Kubel Wants Long Term Deal

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In the wake of many other young talents having their arbitration years bought out, Jason Kubel is hoping for a long-term deal of his own.  Phil Miller of the Pioneer Press notes that Twins Assistant GM Rob Antony is open to it but not about to make any concessions.  Antony points out,

"It’s tough to do a multiyear for guys who haven’t, for whatever reason, established a level of production. How do you go to ownership saying only, ’Our scouting reports say this?’ Now you’re paying for future years based on projections, and that gets a little dangerous."

Kubel was a top hitting prospect with the Twins and had a terrific second half last year; however, his knees have been a cause for concern and limited his playing time and breakout potential.  Evan Longoria got a deal after 6 games, so with the recent rash of young talent signings, Kubel has every right to ask for this; however, it seems the Twins will wisely take a conservative approach to Kubel this year.

By Nat Boyle

Frank Thomas Released

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11:10am:  While I was writing the below, Frank Thomas was released.  That was fast.  I would expect the Jays to call up Adam Lind.  They’ve lost a big chunk of run production, so they should be looking for a new DH.  Barry Bonds?  As for Thomas, I think there will be a lot of interest.  My immediate thought is the Rays, which could come back to bite the Jays.  Better suggestions?

9:48am: More drama coming out of the Blue Jays clubhouse as Frank Thomas has been benched indefinitely, sparking rumors of his potential release.  Last night, the Big Hurt was keeping the bench warm in favor of Matt Stairs at DH.  Even when Shannon Stewart was scratched in left field, Joe Inglett was slotted into left instead of moving Stairs there and plugging the slumping Thomas into the lineup.  Reports Richard Griffin of the Toronto Sun, GM J.P. Ricciardi said this move (benching Thomas for Joe Inglett) was "just putting out what we think is our best lineup to score runs."  That speaks volumes.

This doesn’t seem to be a motivational tactic by Manager John Gibbons akin to Ozzie Guillen’s annual declaration that Bobby Jenks isn’t guaranteed the closer role.  Instead Griffin reports that Thomas was told by Gibbons that this replacement was "indefinite, maybe forever."  In other words, the Jays might be considering releasing him and saving the $10MM owed to Thomas next season; or they could be weathering his displeasure and keeping his PAs to a minimum since the $10MM in 2009 is a vesting option that he earns by recording 1,000 PAs in ’07-’08 (he only needs 304 this year).  No wonder Thomas is peeved.

Mike Rutsey of the Toronto Star reports,

If the Jays do decide to go without Thomas, to release him, they could bring up Adam Lind to play left field on an everyday basis — he is better defensively than either Stairs or Stewart — and have the veterans split the DH duties.  At Syracuse, Lind, a left-handed hitter, is hitting .360 with three homers and 13 RBIs.

Adds Richard Griffin,

If the Jays wish it, his Toronto career, in fact, could be over. A revised DH combo of Stairs and either Rod Barajas or Marco Scutaro could be easier to slot into the batting order than was the slumping one-man roadblock that is the Hurt.  After Scott Rolen returns from an injury rehab assignment in a couple of weeks, there will be nowhere logically for Thomas to hit.

Thomas started slowly through 60 AB last year too before putting together a .277-26-95 season.  PECOTA projects a drop in average, but another 25-90 campaign.  If healthy, I could see Thomas doing even better than those marks.  Still, if they bench or release him it’s to save themselves from having to give $10MM to a 41 year old Thomas.  If they do release him, I would expect him to get signed elsewhere faster than you can say "Barry Bonds".  At which point, I would also expect a fuming Thomas to go on a Hulk-like rampage.

By Nat Boyle

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: The Longoria Deal

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Yesterday, the Tampa Bay Rays announced a historic long-term deal with their rookie-of-the-year candidate, Evan Longoria. If all the options are picked up and bonuses earned, the Dirtbag from Long Beach State will earn $44.5MM over the next 9 years.

Some have noted that the Rays are following the blueprint of the Indians from the 90s, by locking up their young talent long-term. However, this move is unprecedented for a player so early in his career, as last night marked only his 7th game as a major leaguer.

Buster Olney notes that this deal is not surprising as teams are even starting to consider giving star college players 10-year deals when they are drafted. While there is certainly risk with the deal, historically the risk is minimal for top position prospects. Fred Claire notes that long-term deals are now the norm, but that these deals are being reserved for players with impeccable character traits.

Lets take a look at what is being written about this contract in the Blogosphere…

  • skyking162 looks at the math behind the Longoria deal in a two part series. In Part 1, they calculate how much money the Rays are saving. They note that the Rays are paying Longoria during his arbitration years as if he would be worth $9MM on the free agent market. In Part 2, they calculate the addition of the option years and note that the upside far outweighs any downside.
  • Outs Per Swing notes that signing Longoria before he becomes a star will help the Rays avoid making the same mistake the Marlins made with Miguel Cabrera.
  • DRG of Rays Index takes exception to writers that now say sending Longoria to the minors had nothing to do with delaying his free agency clock. DRG notes that keeping Longoria in the minors for two weeks meant the Rays only had to buy out two free agency years instead of three, thus saving the team money. He also refers to reports of players being upset about the deal. He says they should talk to Rocco Baldelli and ask him if he thinks it is a good idea to leave money on the table for a little security up front.
  • Her Rays needs help deciding on the white Longoria jersey or the grey.
  • Baseball Musings is surprised by the move but notes that this is just another reason to like the future of the Rays.
  • Babes Love Baseball thinks the Rays bought the car without so much as a test drive.
  • Fanhouse notes that the Rays are doing a great job of locking up their young talent and while Longoria may be underpaid the first six years of the deal, he will make up for it in the option years and beyond.

Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.

Blocked Prospects: Jed Lowrie

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Jed Lowrie is in Boston’s starting lineup — for now. Lowrie started at shortstop last night, and went 2 for 3 with a run and an RBI. In his debut Tuesday night, he went 1 for 4 with three RBIs. But don’t expect Lowrie to be around for long. He’s headed back to the minors as soon as Mike Lowell or Alex Cora returns form the DL.

Lowrie is a patient hitter with some power who can play multiple positions. Today, the Boston Globe reports that Lowrie spends time each day working with infield coachd Luis Alicea at second base, shortstop, and third base.

Boston’s long-term plans for Lowrie are unclear. He’s blocked at shortstop by Julio Lugo and at third by Lowell, who are both signed through 2010. And he’s blocked at second by Dustin Pedroia, who is signed through 2012. Tim mentioned recently that Lowrie could bring something nice in a trade, but I think he’d be more valuable as a Ryan Freel-type utility player — especially on a team with an aging third baseman, an aging left fielder and injury magnet J.D. Drew in right field.

For proof of just how valuable a good utility guy can be, look no further than Detroit’s Brandon Inge, who is among Tigers team leaders in most major hitting categories and has seen time at catcher, third base and center field. Lowrie could be that kind of guy, and he would would cost a fraction of what the Tigers are paying Inge (or the Reds are paying Freel, for that matter). The Red Sox just have to teach Lowrie to play the outfield.

If you’ll recall, Tampa Bay’s B.J. Upton started last season as a super-utility player, while the Rays debated where he should play permanently. That experiment seemed a little insane at the time ("Oh, you can’t handle one position? Try five!"), but actually worked out in the end. Maybe Lowrie will follow a similar path?

Coley Ward writes for Umpbump.com. You an reach him here.

Sabathia’s Future Value Remains Strong

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Jon Heyman weighs in on C.C. Sabathia, his early season struggles and his impending free agency. Heyman notes that Sabathia and his 13.50 ERA are "costing himself millions by the pitch", even going so far as to say that CC could stand for "Complete Choke."

Heyman lists four players that had huge walk-years (Adrian Beltre, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, B.J. Ryan) and four players that struggled in their walk year (Andruw Jones, Jason Jennings, Jermaine Dye, Jeff Weaver). The problem with this list, is that there is not a single player similar to Sabathia. That is, there is not one left-handed ace in the bunch. As far as free agents go, there is nothing more valuable than a left-handed power pitcher in his prime.

The one player that Sabathia should be compared to is Barry Zito.

Zito had win totals of 14, 11, 14 and 16 and ERA+ of 134, 101, 113 and 116 in the four years prior to free agency and still managed to collect a 7-year, $126MM contract. On the other hand, Sabathia’s last three seasons included win totals of 15, 12 and 19 and ERA+ of 104, 140 and 143. In addition, Sabathia is a year younger in ’08 than Zito was the year prior to free agency.

Sabathia may indeed be costing himself a few million dollars, but in the end he is still a left-handed power pitcher in his prime and will almost certainly eclipse the $126MM contract signed by Zito.

Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.

Astros Sign Soler

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Kevin Czerwinski is reporting that the Astros have signed Alay Soler to a one-year deal for $400K. Soler was originally signed by the Mets in 2004 after defecting from Cuba but did not begin pitching in the U.S. until 2006 in which he made eight starts for the Mets, going 2-3 with a 6.00 ERA. He was later released and then signed by the Pirates last season. He only made 14 appearances for the Pirates AA affiliate before asking for, and being granted his release.

Soler will first report to extended spring training and then AAA Round Rock.

Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.

Cubs May Have Use For Murton After All

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One of the players most-rumored to be traded in the past month is Matt Murton after he failed to make the Cubs opening day roster and was sent to AAA. Now it appears the Cubs may have a use for Murton after all, recalling him from the minors today.

Jon Greenberg notes that Murton is still not an everyday player but could get an occasional spot-start in the outfield as well as regular pinch-hit at bats.

Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal noted that the Rays were still interested and earlier this month wrote of the Padres also pursuing the outfielder. The sticking point appeared to be the Cubs demand for a top pitching prospect.

This could just be a ploy by the Cubs to try and up the offer from other clubs, showing that he is still of value to the Cubs or the Cubs are just now realizing that he is just more useful in the majors than he is in the minors.

Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.

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