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Archives for May 2008

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jason Varitek

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Oh no! It’s a Yankees blogger talking about the Red Sox! He’s gonna be all biased and junk! While I’m sure I’ll get some of that in the comments, I think talking about Jason Varitek’s impending free agency is a worthy topic for this slow Saturday. So, what are we looking at for the 36-year-old backstop?

You know where I’m going with this. After the 2007 season, a 36-year-old Jorge Posada signed a four-year, $52.4MM contract. This was on the heels of Posada’s best season, .338/.426/.543. Can we expect something similar for Varitek, who will turn 37 at the beginning of the 2009 season?

The short answer: no. I understand that Varitek means a lot to the Red Sox as a team. But does that really justify giving him a four-year deal? In my opinion, no. Then again, Varitek is the same season-age as Jorge, so maybe he’ll be looking for a three-year deal. But even then, do the Red Sox want to match Jorge’s yearly salary of $13.1MM?

Red Sox fans might kill me, but once again I have to say no. If I showed you Player 1 and Player 2, without identifying them, and asked you to tell me who has had the better career, you’d pick Player 1 without question. I’d even factor in that Player 2 plays demonstrably better defense. It’s still a landslide.

Varitek is off to a quiet start this year, hitting .256/.301/.449. I expect he’ll bring those numbers up, as he had a similarly slow start last year, yet finished at .255/.367/.421. But you have to wonder how much longer he’s going to hold up. Tek was great from 2003 through 2005, but hasn’t been able to reach the same levels over the past two years. And while he’ll rebound this year, it’s doubtful his OPS+ will be much more than 100.

So what would you pay for a league average hitting catcher for his age 37 through, say, 39 seasons? I figure the Red Sox will end up matching his previous deal, only three years this time around. So three years, $30MM. But it’s not like the Red Sox don’t have the resources to add a fourth year.

Posted by Joe Pawlikowski.

Odds And Ends: Hamilton, Lowry, Brewers, Tejada

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I’m not so happy about kicking off the day with an odds and ends post, but what can I say? I can’t go around making up rumors.

  • Evan Grant talks about how well the Josh Hamilton acquisition has worked out. I say acquisition, because the trade worked out smashingly for the Reds, too.
  • Looks like there won’t be a six-man rotation in San Fran anytime soon. Noah Lowry isn’t throwing anymore, as the pins and needles in his arm have returned. He could miss the entire first half of the season. So much for being a trade candidate.
  • Brewers GM Doug Melvin has said that the team will look for pitching, but not to expect anything. It’s a seller’s market right now. In the meantime, David Bush takes a spot in the rotation, and Jeff Weaver remains an option.
  • Miguel Tejada promised a sick kid he’d hit a homer, and came through. I could never make such a promise. How could you live with yourself if you failed?

Posted by Joe Pawlikowski, who writes for River Ave. Blues, a Yankees blog (though you already knew that, right?). Today is slooooow. Hit me with rumors.

Odds and Ends: Gallardo, NPB, Braves

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Today’s link collection…

  • Check out the latest MLB Roundup video.  The crew hands out April awards, assesses Billy Beane’s gameplan, and looks at Jeff Ma’s third-place Tout Wars team.
  • RotoAuthority helps Yovani Gallardo owners pick up the pieces and find a replacement (he has a torn ACL).  The Brewers have guys they can plug in but Gallardo seemed primed for a stellar season.  They’ll keep an eye on the trade market.
  • Mike Hampton could retire, but it’s highly unlikely that he’ll abandon the rest of his ’08 salary.
  • Nippon Professional Baseball might shorten the tenure needed for free agency, except for those looking to go overseas.  Players hoping to jump from Japan to MLB would still have to serve nine years or be posted.
  • In the sidebar of this article, Ken Rosenthal suggests that Frank Wren will explore the trade market for starting pitching but won’t overpay for mediocrity.  Tracy Ringolsby wonders whether the Braves will consider re-acquiring Kevin Millwood.

Rockies Sign Juan Castro

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FRIDAY: The Rockies win the Castro sweepstakes.  Ken Rosenthal notes in a sidebar that the silver lining to the Tulo injury could be Barmes getting a chance to build up trade value.  Rosenthal doesn’t see the Rox pursuing Brian Roberts for second base help unless they battle their way into contention first. 

THURSDAY: Tony Jackson of the L.A. Daily News has been all over the Juan Castro situation.  The 35 year-old shortstop became a free agent today, and four clubs are in pursuit.  The Dodgers, Padres, Orioles, and Rockies are all after him.  Jackson says the Dodgers and Rockies would want him to do a brief Triple A stint.  Troy E. Renck confirms Colorado’s interest.

The Rockies received devastating news today – star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki could be out until July with a torn tendon in his quad.  Clint Barmes will assume the starting shortstop position.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Rafael Furcal

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Indicators predicting a big year for Rafael Furcal included his impending free agency, a return to health, and a strong Spring Training performance.  After 28 games, he sits at .371/.459/.586 (tops among shortstops).

When Furcal first reached free agency after the 2005 season, he was only 28 and was coming off a .284/.348/.429 season.  He chose to maximize his yearly salary rather than take a four or five-year deal.  The three-year, $39MM contract Furcal signed with the Dodgers allows him to re-enter free agency at age 31.

Furcal is in line for a monster contract even if he can’t maintain his MVP performance.  Jimmy Rollins is signed at a well below-market price, so he’s a poor comparable.  The high-end comp is Derek Jeter, who gave up nine free agent years for a bit less than $20MM per season.  Furcal’s agent, Paul Kinzer, could reasonably ask for $75MM over five years.

Furcal and the Dodgers are open to a midseason extension, according to Ken Rosenthal.  That’d make Chin-Lung Hu a valuable trade chip.  Back in ’05, the Cubs and Braves competed with the Dodgers for Furcal.  The White Sox, Blue Jays, Nationals, and Cardinals could enter the mix next winter if Furcal reaches free agency.

Turnbow Designated

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FRIDAY, 9:34am: It’s official – Turnbow has been designated for assignment.

FRIDAY, 8:53am: Adam McCalvy says the Brewers will call up outfielder Joe Dillon today, leading to speculation that Turnbow will be designated.

THURSDAY: Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel wonders whether the Brewers will decide to eat Derrick Turnbow’s $3.2MM salary and release him.

Not only is Turnbow unhappy, but he’s been rocked in eight appearances this year.  He probably needs a fresh start.  I am not a fan of the "relief ERA" metric, but the Red Sox, Mariners, and Rangers fare poorly by it.  In reality, there are probably a dozen teams that would like to try to straighten Turnbow out.  Control, of course, is his main issue.

Reds Podcast Appearance

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Yesterday I joined Dan Clasgens and Greg Shoemaker on the Get Sports Radio Reds podcast.  You can download the mp3 here. 

On the show, I wasn’t able to explain the Cardinals’ hot start.  How are they doing it?  The starting pitching is clicking on all cylinders (with more help on the way), and the hitters are collectively getting on base quite often. 

Braves, Angels Scouting Cardinals

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Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch mentioned in a Wednesday chat that the Braves are scouting the Cardinals heavily and the Angels have also been watching recently.

One rumor that’s been floating about consistently is that the Cardinals are willing to trade pitcher Anthony Reyes.  Yesterday Jayson Stark relayed that John Mozeliak wants "an upper echelon prospect back, plus another piece."

Stark’s Latest: Zito, Anthony Reyes, Varitek, Inoa

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ESPN’s Jayson Stark has been working the phones, and the result is his latest Rumblings and Grumblings column.

  • Stark talked to an official from a "pitching-starved" team.  This person said the Giants would have to eat at least $80MM of Barry Zito’s remaining $112.5MM if they want to trade him.  One scout suggested Zito’s only chance at revival is a reunion with Rick Peterson.
  • The Cards’ Anthony Reyes is "eminently available."  Problem is, John Mozeliak has a high asking price for the 26 year-old hurler.
  • Edwin Jackson remains a hot commodity, but there’s no reason for the Rays to move him.
  • How much will Scott Boras want from the Red Sox for a Jason Varitek extension?  If it’s in the Jorge Posada four-year, $52MM neighborhood, there’s no chance.
  • Stark informs us of a highly sought-after 16 year-old Dominican pitcher named Michel Inoa.  The kid could get a signing bonus north of $1.5MM.  The Astros are one club interested in Inoa.

O’s Not Planning Long-Term Deals For Markakis, Jones

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Interesting note from Buster Olney’s blog today:

Most major-league teams are working to sign their best young players to multi-year deals. But right now, the Orioles’ internal philosophy is to wait for at least three years before discussing a multi-year deal with the likes of Adam Jones and Nick Markakis.

Surprising, isn’t it?  If the Orioles eschew long-term deals, their best players will be much more expensive when the team is ready to compete.  Markakis, their star player, will be up for arbitration after this season.  Maybe he won’t get the $10MM Ryan Howard did, but $7MM seems reasonable.  There were already rumblings that Markakis was angered by this year’s $55K raise.

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