Perrotto’s Latest: Reds, Dempster, Silva, Lugo
John Perrotto’s Every Given Sunday column is up over at Baseball Prospectus. For those without a BP subscription, here’s the highlights:
- Perrotto believes that Reds owner Bob Castellini will give Walt Jocketty the go-ahead to dive into the free agent market this season in an attempt to contend in 2009. The Reds like their young core, and feel a solid bat or two can help them contend in NL Central immediately.
- Jed Lowrie’s play since taking over for the injured Julio Lugo has convinced the Red Sox that he can be the everyday shortstop. They’ll look to move Lugo (and his contract) this offseason.
- There’s been a lot of talk about teams looking for corner outfield help, but don’t expect the Tigers to jump into that category. They’re convinced that rookie Matt Joyce can be their everyday left fielder next season. Joyce already has 12 home runs this season in just 183 ABs.
- Despite a great season, the Cubs may be hesistant to re-sign Ryan Dempster to a long-term deal because they already have Rich Harden, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Jason Marquis signed for 2009.
- I apologize in advance to Mets fans for what I’m about to write: Perrotto feels that the Mets could make a push to trade for Carlos Silva in the offseason, in the hope that a reunion with his close friend and former teammate Johan Santana can revitalize him.
- The Pirates are almost certain to trade Jack Wilson before the 2009 season begins.
- Another name for teams seeking starting pitching: The Marlins are likely to trade Scott Olsen this offseason to help keep their payroll down.
Rockies To Shop Atkins?
Everyone expects the Rockies to move Matt Holliday for pitching this winter, but Troy E. Renck suggests it might be Garrett Atkins instead. Atkins is expected to make around $8MM in arbitration next year, and with Ian Stewart developing at third and Todd Helton returning to first, Atkins becomes readily expendable.
Renck points out that the third basement free agent market is sorely lacking, boosting Atkins value in a trade. Atkins can also play first base, making him a valuable player for ball clubs like the Twins and Angels. From those teams, Renck lists Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey, Nick Adenhart, and Ervin Santana as young pitchers with huge upsides that could be a good fit. Santana, however, has realized that upside so I wouldn’t consider him on the list.
Olney On The Free Agent Market
Buster Olney’s latest below:
- False Echoes: "the phenomenon of veterans who have quickly descended from productive players into something much less than that over the last couple of years," often from discontinuing PED use. Olney thinks the industry is not going to throw "long-term dollars" at players in their mid 30s. That in combination with the economy and recent successes of small market clubs spells a bad market for mid-level free agents, according to Olney. If Olney’s right, that’s bad news for guys like Manny Ramirez; however, Manny has shown in L.A. that he can still produce.
- Overlooking all of that, Olney thinks the Dodgers could land CC Sabathia if they make a nine-figure offer. For a salary-shy team, that would come as a mild surprise. Olney suggests the Giants would go for Sabathia if not for their massive commitment to Barry Zito.
Aaron Crow’s Perspective
Jim Bowden and the Nationals failed to sign first round draft pick Aaron Crow over a mere $900K. The process was a sticky one, to say the least.
Eric SanInocencio, host of Baseball Digest Daily Live, sat down with Crow yesterday for an intriguing podcast and got his perspective in the failed negotiations. The interview is about 15 minutes into the show:
- Crow said the process was an emotional roller coaster, but was content with the resolution. In dealing with Washington and the way they handled the process and communicated with him and his family, he began to realize he’d be better off next year dealing with any of the other 29 clubs. According to Crow, after speaking with Jim Bowden and being congratulated for being picked, he "didn’t hear back from him for… the whole rest of that month."
- Crow didn’t seek advice with former Missouri teammate Max Scherzer, or Luke Hochevar, figuring it worked out for them so it’d work out for him. He said he put himself up against those guys, believing in himself, "believing in a similar outcome as well."
- He admitted to seeking a major league deal that would put immediately on the 40-man roster. According to Jim Bowden, when he asked the rationale was behind such a deal, Crow’s agents, the Hendricks, failed to respond. In the end, their insistence on a major league deal was dropped but Bowden would not meet the $4.4MM asking price.
- When asked if he would accept a situation in which the Nationals drafted him again next year, Crow said he "would prefer if they stayed away from me and drafted somebody else. I’d be a lot more comfortable and would work out better for both of us if they just decided to go with other players."
Rosenthal’s Latest: Kotsay, Fuentes, Glavine, Smoltz
On August 18th, Rosenthal mentioned Mark Kotsay had cleared waivers, and that Brian Fuentes had not yet been placed. Here’s an update, from today’s Inside Pitch video:
- The Brewers and Red Sox are both showing interest in Kotsay. The Brewers would only pursue a trade if Ryan Braun‘s ribcage injury worsens, and so far he looks more than fine. The Sox made a play for lefty-hitting Brian Giles before Giles vetoed the deal, so it makes sense that they’d exert similar effort toward Kotsay. Even more so now that J.D. Drew has a herniated disc.
- Fuentes is expected to be put on waivers this week, a process that’s not usually made public, let alone announced, so the Rockies must be keen to see if they can do better in a trade than the two first round draft picks they get by keeping Fuentes. According to Rosenthal, as things stand, the Dodgers currently have waiver priority. If they pass for salary reasons, the Phillies could be a roadblock for the Mets.
- Rosenthal also mentions a delicate situation in Atlanta: Tom Glavine and John Smoltz both want to pitch next year, and Glavine only wants to pitch for the Braves. The Braves are faced with re-signing the inevitable Hall of Famers without being as reliant on their health as they were this year, or letting them go despite their long history with the team. Toss Mike Hampton‘s arm into the mix as well.
A Closer Look at Strasburg
A spot on the US Olympic team has thrown some extra attention on 20-year old San Diego State hurler Stephen Strasburg, likely to be the top pick in next year’s draft. As Thomas Boswell wrote today in the Washington Post, Strasburg’s fastball has been clocked at 101 mph and it’s not even his best pitch (that would be his curveball).
Boswell excited because his hometown Nats are so terrible, they just might be getting the No. 1 draft pick that would let them snag the 220 lb, 6’4" Strasburg. But Buster Olney rains on his parade:
Strasburg’s advisor is Scott Boras, and if the Nationals thought the asking price of Aaron Crow was high, well, they ain’t seen nothing yet.
Nonetheless, DC scribes are following the scouts’ lead and positively drooling over the big righty. In addition to his high-90s heater and his 70s curve, Strasburg has a slider in the 80s and struck out 23 batters in one game in April.
Washington has a .354 winning percentage as of right now. The only other teams under .400 are San Diego (.375) and Seattle (.367).
Sarah Green writes for UmpBump and the Boston Metro. She can be reached here.
Odds and Ends: Manny, Pavano, Gonzalez
Some Saturday mid-day linkage:
- Hitoki Iwase was lit up in the Olympics, possibly dropping his stock as a prospect. Iwase was one of several Japanese players being scouted by Major League clubs in Beijing.
- Luis Gonzalez reminisces about his trade to the Diamondbacks ten years ago.
- Manny Ramirez is not interested in talking about those old Philadelphia rumors. I’m shocked, shocked.
- J.D. Drew‘s back spasms are actually a herniated disk. According to Nick Cafardo, the Red Sox would love to add another outfielder, but can’t seem to lay their hands on one. No offense to Jason Lane.
- He’s baaaa-aaaack: Free-agent-to-be Carl Pavano is starting tonight for the New York Yankees. Strike up the band and break out the rum punch.
- Recently traded infielder Jose Bautista was at odds with Pirates manager John Russell.
- Thomas Boswell talks about the possibility of Stephen Strasburg becoming a National next year.
Sarah Green writes for UmpBump and the Boston Metro and can be reached here.
Pondering Robertson’s Future With The Tigers
As it stands, Jim Leyland’s decision to drop Nate Robertson from the Tigers’ rotation and send him to the bullpen is a strategic move to help the club now, but its impossible to look at the situation without an eye on 2009.
Robertson acknowledged to reporters that his offseason plans will have to accommodate some kind of adjustment to his mechanics, pitching repertoire, or workout regimen. The slider is his signature pitch, but it hasn’t been as effective this year, causing his ERA to hover around 6.04, the highest its been since his rookie season with Florida.
The Tigers also have to consider the financial repercussions of having a multi-million dollar reliever if he’s unable to rebound to form and reclaim his spot on the rotation. Robertson is scheduled to make $7MM (before incentives) in 2009, the second year of his 3-year contract with the Tigs, $10MM in 2010.
Its possible the club decides to trade Robertson in the offseason as a salary dump.
Alejandro A. Leal writes for UmpBump.com. Comments? Rumors? Email me: alexo (at) umpbump (dot) com.
El Duque May Retire
According to Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News, Orlando Hernandez is opting to have surgery on his right big toe to remove a bunion, meaning his career is all but over.
El Duque has resisted this procedure in the past because it may take more than a season to fully heal.
Hernandez left his last outing on July 18th for Mets Double A affiliate Binghamton after only one inning citing discomfort on his foot.
Alejandro A. Leal writes for UmpBump.com. Comments? Rumors? Email me: alexo (at) umpbump (dot) com.
Braves Sign Rodrigo Lopez
The Braves signed 32 year-old righty Rodrigo Lopez to a minor league deal today with an option for ’09. Lopez had surgery on a torn flexor tendon as well as Tommy John surgery in August of last year. Braves pitcher Jorge Campillo apparently recommended the team take a look at Lopez, a friend of his.
We’ve seen teams take this strategy successfully in the past, signing a player coming off elbow surgery with an eye on the following season. Lopez had a decent half-season for the Rox last year before the injury surfaced.