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Archives for August 2008

Many Marlins Due Raises

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Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel discusses the Marlins’ difficult situation this winter, with as many as 18 players facing arbitration.  Berardino projects salaries for these players in this chart. 

As you may know, players typically reach arbitration the offseason after they cross the three-year service time mark.  The resulting raise can be as much as 1000%, with Ryan Howard’s case last year the most drastic example ($900K in ’07, $10MM in ’08).  The Marlins’ biggest jump figures to be second baseman Dan Uggla – $417K in 08, perhaps $5MM or more in ’09.  Most players face arbitration three times and then reach free agency.  The player almost always gets a raise each year, and typically his salary cannot be cut by more than 20%.  That’s why Berardino projects injured pitcher Sergio Mitre going from $1.2MM to $960K.

December 12th is the deadline for tendering contracts to arbitration-eligible players.  Teams can choose to let their arbitration-eligible players go, and then those players become free agents despite having less than six years of service time.  David Ortiz may be the most famous example.

The Marlins figure to be open for business this winter – Berardino names Kevin Gregg, Scott Olsen, and Mike Jacobs as top trade candidates.  Jorge Cantu is another possibility, and a blockbuster for Uggla can’t be ruled out.  The Marlins kept Miguel Cabrera until his second arbitration year, though. 

Elias Ranking Update

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Eddie Bajek has been doing great work reverse-engineering the Elias rankings over at his blog, Detroit Tigers Thoughts.  He’s now ranked catchers, first basemen, outfielders, and designated hitters for both leagues.

An explanation of free agent draft pick compensation can be found here.  For a team to get draft picks, they need to offer arbitration to their free agent and then have him decline and sign elsewhere.  So it either has to be a player they wouldn’t mind having on a one-year deal, or a player who is a lock for a multiyear contract.

Looking at Eddie’s (unfinished) list, the following free agents are Type A or B and likely to net draft picks: Mark Teixeira (Braves), Raul Ibanez (Mariners), Milton Bradley (Rangers), Manny Ramirez (Dodgers), Pat Burrell (Phillies), Adam Dunn (Diamondbacks), and maybe Carlos Delgado (Mets).  If, say, the Mariners re-sign Ibanez, the cost is his new contract as well as the two draft picks they could’ve had.

Several high-salary solid players probably will not be offered arbitration and therefore won’t land draft picks for the losing team: Ivan Rodriguez (Yankees), Bobby Abreu (Yankees), Garret Anderson (Angels), Ken Griffey Jr. (White Sox), and Jason Giambi (Yankees).   Hard to say how things will unfold with Brian Giles, who is a borderline Type A if the Padres decline his option.  The Yankees won’t want to risk being stuck with Rodriguez, Abreu, or Giambi at their ’07 salaries or higher, so they probably won’t offer arbitration.

Kenny Rogers, Others Placed On Waivers

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TUESDAY: Jon Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press says Rogers and other Tigers were placed on waivers Friday.  So we’ll know today who cleared and who was claimed.  Rogers could make sense for a contender like the Mets.  Buster Olney doesn’t seem him getting that far – he guesses the Yankees or Red Sox.

MONDAY: According to Tom Gage of The Detroit News, it may be the end of the line for Tigers lefty Kenny Rogers.  The 43 year-old has a 5.09 ERA in 161 innings, and his walk rate continues to climb after last year’s jump.  He’s owed another $1.58MM this year, plus up to $2MM more in deferred bonus money.  Paul Byrd and Greg Maddux cleared waivers; Rogers probably would as well.  Even if the Tigers don’t move him this month, they don’t seem likely to re-sign him next year.

Baseball Prospectus assigns the Tigers playoff chances at less than 0.2%.  It’s time to focus on 2009.  Peter Gammons suggested the Tigers might trim payroll from the current $137MM range to $100MM.  Problem is, they’ve already got more than $101MM tied up in current players and will be looking for help at shortstop and in the rotation.

Twins Acquire Eddie Guardado

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3:30pm: The Rangers will receive minor league reliever Mark Hamburger.  La Velle E. Neal III expects the Twins to pick up the rest of Guardado’s salary.

2:13pm: According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, the Twins have acquired Eddie Guardado from the Rangers.  Joe Christensen wrote on Friday that the Twins would make a claim but didn’t expect a deal.

Guardado has been useful for the Rangers, posting a 3.65 ERA in 49.1 innings.  The ERA is a bit deceiving, but it’s still a helpful addition for the Twins.  Guardado is a familiar face, having spent a decade in the organization.  He’s still owed roughly $620K this year.

Molony’s Latest: Red Sox, Kelly Johnson

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Here’s a look at the latest blog post from MLB.com’s Jim Molony.

  • Molony agrees with previous reports – the Red Sox are eyeing outfield help.  An inquiry on Darin Erstad fizzled, while Mark Kotsay remains on the radar.  Drew might be headed to the DL.
  • The Red Sox might also be eyeing another starter, given Josh Beckett’s injury.  Molony speculates that Kevin Millwood or Vicente Padilla could make sense (both have cleared waivers).
  • Molony expects Braves second baseman Kelly Johnson to be traded this winter.  Johnson, 26, slipped to .264/.333/.405 in 482 plate appearances this year.  He’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time.

Odds and Ends: Indians, Livan, Braves, Friedman

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Let’s round up today’s random links.

Heyman’s Latest: Sabathia, Dunn, Huff, Mora

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Hot off the press from SI.com’s Jon Heyman:

  • An executive who knows C.C. Sabathia well told Heyman the pitcher’s first choice in free agency is the Giants.  It’s not a great fit, as starting pitching is the Giants’ strength and Sabathia would add another $100MM+ contract to their rotation.  The Yankees are considered the offseason frontrunners for Sabathia, though former teammate Casey Blake sees C.C. in Dodger blue.
  • Heyman believes a claim on Paul Byrd would’ve made sense for the Yanks.
  • Heyman agrees with the Dodgers’ choice not to risk a claim on Adam Dunn.  That decision is tough to defend, though, since no one expected Reds GM Walt Jocketty to give up two draft picks for $3.45MM in salary relief.
  • No one’s interested in Aubrey Huff or Melvin Mora, who have both cleared waivers.  The Orioles might have an easier time trading them this winter.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Rangers, Yankees, Phillies

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Let’s take a look at Ken Rosenthal’s most recent Full Count video.

  • Rangers president Nolan Ryan may be considering sweeping changes.  He might replace the team’s manager, GM, or both.  If he chooses to install his own people, Gerry Hunsicker and Tim Purpura would be the top GM candidates.
  • The Yankees are willing to trade off a few veteran impending free agents, but pretty much all of them have no-trade clauses.  Those are not always an obstacle though.  Danny Knobler recently heard the Yankees have yet to ask for waivers on their significant players.
  • The Phillies have been frustrated trying to add a bench bat.  A few who have cleared waivers: Frank Catalanotto, Kevin Millar, and Jay Payton.
  • Having picked up Luis Ayala and Al Reyes, the Mets are done adding relievers.  Though he surprisingly cleared waivers, David Weathers is not on the radar.

Millwood, Padilla, Catalanotto Clear Waivers

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MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan has three more names for the cleared waivers list from the Rangers: Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, and Frank Catalanotto.  These players can now be traded to any team.  Sullivan says the Rangers aren’t looking to sell but are willing to listen.

Millwood, 33, has a 5.24 ERA in 122 innings this year.  He’s been better than that; Millwood has been a victim of an abnormal amount of hits dropping in.  He’s dealt with a groin injury for much of the season, as well as a hamstring issue in spring.  Millwood will earn another $1.6MM this year and $11MM in ’09.  His 2010 salary of $12MM becomes a club option unless he pitches 180 innings in ’09.

Padilla, 31 in September, has a 4.98 ERA in 148.1 innings.  Home runs have been his main problem.  He spent time on the DL with a strained neck.  He’ll earn another $2.1MM this year and $12MM in ’09.  He has a $12MM club option for ’10 with a $1.75MM buyout.

Catalanotto, 34, is hitting .272/.337/.389 in 267 plate appearances.  He’s played first base and left field this year.  He’s not helpful against lefthanded pitching.  His contract is a problem – $765K this year, $4MM in ’09, and a $2MM buyout in ’10.

Sullivan’s article also says the Yankees inquired on Milton Bradley at some point but weren’t offering much.

Week in Review: 8/17 – 8/23

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Another week in the books, and we keep seeing big names moved after the July 31 non-waiver deadline. Let’s look back on the past week:

  • The Dodgers acquired Greg Maddux from the Padres for two minor league players to be named later. Nice acquisition to bolster their rotation, and does anyone want to place bets on how excited 20-year-old Clayton Kershaw is to get tips from Maddux every day for the rest of the season?
  • The Pirates are exploring the idea of trading Jack Wilson this offseason more and more. Given the slim free agent market for shortstops, he would likely gather a lot of interest.
  • Nate Robertson’s struggles this season have lost him his spot in the rotation, but have they also lost him a spot with the Tigers after 2008?
  • Orlando Hernandez needs surgery on his foot, and that could likely mean that El Duque’s career would be over.
  • Lots of speculation lately about where Ben Sheets is going to land after 2008. And while there’s no way to tell right now, Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman have stepped up and said they would like the Astros front office to go out and sign him in the offseason.
  • A lot of minor-league deals signed this week: Kip Wells signed with Kansas City, the Mets added Al Reyes, the Astros signed Jose Castillo, the Red Sox signed Dave Ross, and the Braves took a flyer on Rodrigo Lopez following his Tommy John surgery last year. The Jays made a trade to acquire Jose Bautista for a PTBNL as well.
  • The Rangers would like Milton Bradley back in 2009, and the feeling is mutual, though negotiations will wait until after the season. Similarly, Frank Thomas would prefer to stay with the A’s in 2009.
  • Eric Gagne, David Riske, and David Weathers all cleared waivers this week. The first two make sense to me, but given Weathers’ success this year, his affordable contract for the rest of the season, and all of the teams desperately seeking bullpen help, it seems strange that no one would place a claim on him. Here’s an updated list of all the players who have been confirmed to have cleared waivers this year.

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