By Tim Dierkes | at
4:15pm: MLB.com's Mark Sheldon says Gomes accepted the minor league assignment. Meanwhile, Jacque Jones was released.
8:31am: John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer has a few Reds notes.
By Tim Dierkes | at
According to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, the Royals claimed third baseman Travis Metcalf off waivers from the Rangers today. The Rangers signed infielder Esteban German, formerly of the Cubs and Royals, to replace Metcalf.
Metcalf, 26, has a career line of .249/.300/.475 in 242 plate appearances. He has not had success in a couple of Triple A stints. Back in their '06 Handbook, Baseball America said Metcalf profiled as "as average hitter with potentially above-average power." They considered him a "solid defender" at the time. Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star notes that Metcalf starred at the University of Kansas back in the day.
German, 31, hit .245/.303/.338 in 242 plate appearances last year, spending time at multiple positions. He played for the Rangers back in '05 before he was traded to the Royals for Fabio Castro.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Peter Abraham of The Journal News passes along a release from the A's: they've claimed pitcher Dan Giese off waivers from the Yankees. The A's designated pitcher Chris Schroder for assignment to make room.
Giese, 32 in May, posted a 3.53 ERA in 43.3 innings with the Yanks last year. He also spent 59 innings at Triple A, tallying a 1.98 ERA. In his career Giese has also bounced around with the Red Sox, Padres, Phillies, and Giants organizations.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Last time in our Boras Blast From The Past series, we talked about his first client, Bill Caudill. This time let's discuss Ben McDonald.
McDonald, a junior at Louisiana State University, was selected first overall by the Orioles in the 1989 amateur draft. It was suggested by the Washington Post's Richard Justice that scouts viewed McDonald as the best pitching prospect since Doc Gooden. The #1 overall selection by Baltimore didn't stop LSU from using McDonald in six of their last seven games, infuriating the Orioles according to Justice.
Initially McDonald was advised by his father and was said to be seeking a $275K bonus, similar to Andy Benes the year before, as well as a three-year deal worth $425-700K. The two sides couldn't even agree to that. Then Scott Boras entered the picture, and talk began about McDonald returning to LSU for his senior year.
Eventually the Orioles, led by president Larry Lucchino and GM Roland Hemond, offered McDonald a deal worth around $700K over three years, second only to Bo Jackson's $1.1MM in 1986. McDonald, however, was reportedly offered a two-year, $2MM deal from an upstart new baseball league that was to begin in 1990 with the backing of Donald Trump. Boras initially demanded the Orioles match the offer. Then he backed off and just requested that the Orioles match the $1.1MM. If the Orioles failed to sign McDonald, they'd receive a compensation pick between the first and second round in 1990. Boras' comment on the negotiations, according to Justice:
Every situation is unique. That's the thing Baltimore must understand. This has become a free agent negotiations because of external matters [the new league].
On August 18th, 1989, Lucchino and Boras finally hammered out a three-year package worth $950K plus incentives. Justice's sources said the independent Trump league never actually made a formal contract offer. McDonald debuted with six appearances out of the Orioles' bullpen in '89, and was underwhelming given his brief minor league experience.
McDonald's Orioles career was viewed a disappointment. His best year was 1993, when he pitched 220.3 innings with a 3.39 ERA. In 1995, a year when arbitration hearings were done in June, McDonald submitted $4.5MM and the Orioles submitted $3.2MM. McDonald and Boras were willing to meet in the middle, but the Orioles instead tried to win the case. McDonald won. Subsequently, the Orioles non-tendered him in December since they were could only cut his salary by a maximum of 20% and were concerned about injuries. It would be a while before the relationship between Peter Angelos and Boras was repaired. From Buster Olney's Baltimore Sun article:
The team officially severed ties with McDonald yesterday, choosing not to tender him a contract rather than extending the required minimum offer of $3.6 million. Orioles general manager Pat Gillick called McDonald's representative with the news, and agent Scott Boras responded with about 30 seconds of silence. "The least we could tender him at was $3.6 million," Gillick said, "and we weren't comfortable with that…We're not really sure what the market is [for McDonald]."
McDonald drew interest from the Yankees and Brewers, and ultimately signed with Milwaukee on a two-year, $5.75MM deal with a player option and plenty of incentives. McDonald had a strong first year with the Brewers, posting a 3.90 ERA in 221.3 innings. Brewers GM Sal Bando offered McDonald a big extension in '97 – three years, $18MM plus a $6MM option (according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Boras turned down the extension, requesting a guaranteed fourth year. The decision turned out to be a blunder, as McDonald never pitched again due to injuries.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Red Sox. Here's what we wrote about them on October 20th. Changes for 2009:
Additions: Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Ramon Ramirez,Takashi Saito, Rocco Baldelli, Junichi Tazawa, Tim Wakefield (exercised option), Jason Varitek (re-signed), Mark Kotsay (re-signed), Brad Wilkerson, Randor Bierd, Nick Green, Billy Traber. Midseason: Jason Bay
Subtractions: Coco Crisp, David Aardsma, Mike Timlin, Paul Byrd, Sean Casey, David Pauley, Kevin Cash, Bartolo Colon, David Ross, Alex Cora. Midseason: Manny Ramirez, Brandon Moss, Craig Hansen
Extensions: Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester
Despite taking a very different approach from the Yankees, the Red Sox also had a positive offseason. They extended three talented young players and maintained financial flexibility by signing free agents to low base salary contracts.
Last year the Red Sox ranked 2nd in the AL with 5.22 runs scored per game. Changes in the '09 lineup include the subtraction of Manny, Crisp, and possibly Lugo, as well as more time for Bay and Lowrie. CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool predict the best offense in the league: 5.62 runs per game. Theoretically the Baldelli addition can limit the damage if Drew is to miss time.
Boston's '08 rotation ranked 3rd in the AL with a 4.02 ERA in 966.6 innings. The '09 rotation is similar but deeper with the additions of Penny and Smoltz and the possible emergence of Clay Buchholz. Michael Bowden, a quality young pitcher, seems buried on the depth chart. I tweaked CHONE's innings projections and ended up with a 4.13 ERA for this year's group. That seems pessimistic but we'll go with it.
Last year's bullpen posted a 4.00 ERA in 479.6 innings (I know these bullpen ERAs aren't great indicators but let's not overcomplicate things). The subtractions of Timlin, Aardsma, and Hansen help. Add in more innings from Masterson as well as imports Ramirez and Saito, and this 'pen projects at a 3.43 ERA. Even if they're not that good I can still see a few extra wins this year.
Defensively the Red Sox ranked 5th in the AL according to The Fielding Bible II. I don't think they'll suffer for the losses of Crisp and Manny.
Like the Yankees, the Red Sox project on paper to win 100+ games. Of course, for both teams some players will get hurt and have unexpected seasons. Plus, the quality of competition in the division should bring down those win totals.
Bottom line: The Red Sox failed to sign Mark Teixeira, but he was a luxury for them anyway. I liked Boston's low-risk offseason approach, and it's scary to think that they could make major summer trade acquisitions.
By Tim Dierkes | at
According to Chico Harlan of the Washington Post, the Nationals released pitcher Gustavo Chacin. He was unable to crack the Nats' Triple A rotation. The Phillies then promptly signed Chacin.
Chacin, 28, had his best season as a rookie for the '05 Blue Jays. He had shoulder surgery in September of '07.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Comeback alert! According to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times, the Mariners signed reliever Jeff Zimmerman to a minor league deal. Zimmerman hasn't pitched in the Majors since 2001. Zimmerman did have a couple of very nice years with the Rangers back, but two Tommy John surgeries put him out of commission. For more about Jack Zduriencik's stockpiling of arms, check out Larry LaRue's blog post.
By Tim Dierkes | at
MLB.com's Scott Merkin talked to White Sox outfielder Jermaine Dye about his future, though Dye didn't say much. He faces a $12MM mutual option for 2010 with a $1MM buyout. Dye hit .292/.344/.541 in 645 plate appearances last year and his defense was not highly regarded.
Back when the White Sox were seemingly talking about Dye trades in December, his contract seemed reasonable. But since then Bobby Abreu signed at $5MM a year, Adam Dunn at $10MM, and Pat Burrell at $8MM.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Cubs. Here's what we wrote about them on October 17th. Changes for 2009:
Additions: Milton Bradley, Ryan Dempster (re-signed), Kevin Gregg, Aaron Miles, Aaron Heilman, Luis Vizcaino, David Patton, Jeff Stevens, Joey Gathright. Midseason: Rich Harden
Subtractions: Kerry Wood, Mark DeRosa, Jason Marquis, Bob Howry, Chad Gaudin, Mike Wuertz, Felix Pie, Rich Hill, Henry Blanco, Jim Edmonds, Jon Lieber, Ronny Cedeno, Daryle Ward, Casey McGehee. Midseason: Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Sean Gallagher, Scott Eyre
The Cubs made headlines by increasing their Opening Day payroll more than any other team, by $16.5MM. This was a necessity due to the team's backloaded contracts, though – incumbents Kosuke Fukudome, Ted Lilly, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, and Aramis Ramirez combined for a $17.9MM salary increase. To improve the team, it was still necessary to trim payroll. This resulted in the decisions to subtract Blanco and Marquis (good) as well as Wood and DeRosa (questionable).
The Cubs led the NL last year with 5.31 runs scored per game. The new lineup was designed with more lefty-righty balance in mind. Using CHONE projections and the lineup analysis tool, it projects at 5.29 runs per game. That projection will slip a bit if Bradley misses time. Bradley was a very risky signing, and he didn't take a discount to come to Chicago. He'll be worth it if the Cubs can somehow coax 130 games a year out of him; his history suggests they can't. The Cubs shouldn't be any worse for having Fontenot in the lineup over DeRosa, but the club didn't maximize its '09 return when they sent the veteran to Cleveland.
Last year's rotation was also the best in the league, posting a 3.75 ERA in 955 innings. They've subtracted 166.6 innings of 4.43 ball from Marquis and 54.6 innings of a similar performance from Gallagher. They'll hope getting more than last year's 12 starts from Harden balances out Dempster's likely regression. Signing Dempster at $52MM seemed acceptable on November 18th, but now the commitment looks a bit steep. Tweaking CHONE's innings projections and adding Jeff Samardzija to the mix, the '09 group projects around a 4.17 ERA.
The '08 bullpen posted a middling 4.10 ERA in 495.6 innings. In what can only be seen as a cost-cutting move, the Cubs chose not to offer arbitration to Wood (a Type A free agent) after his strong season. The team saved $5.8MM by replacing Wood with Gregg. Sending Jose Ceda to Florida for a year of Gregg was seen by most as an overpay. GM Jim Hendry overhauled the rest of the bullpen aside from Carlos Marmol and Neal Cotts, bringing in Heilman and Vizcaino in trades. Longtime Cub Angel Guzman was given a spot, as he's out of options. Patton was taken from the Rockies in the Rule 5 draft; he'll try to make the jump from High A ball. The Cubs lost $1.6MM by changing their mind on Gaudin, to whom they tendered a contract in December but cut in April. The Cubs' pen seems worse in the ninth inning but acceptable overall, projecting at a 3.96 ERA.
Defensively the Cubs ranked 9th in the NL according to The Fielding Bible II. They're better in center field, so perhaps a win can be gained on defense.
I project the Cubs at 92 or 93 wins, but they have two of the game's biggest wild cards in Bradley and Harden. The offense should mash again regardless, while the rotation looks good rather than great.
Bottom line: It'd be a major feat for the Cubs to reach the playoffs three years in a row, and this team projects as the division's best. Hendry could've widened the gap with more payroll flexibility, though.
By Tim Dierkes | at
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