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Archives for July 2009

Elias Rankings

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At the end of each season, The Elias Sports Bureau ranks all MLB players numerically based on a bunch of stats.  Every player is categorized in one of five position groups and by league.  The rankings cover a two-year time period.  They are used to determine whether free agents are Type A, Type B, or neither.  If you'd like a reminder on how draft pick compensation works, read up here.

Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings last year.  Eddie's incredible work was made possible in large part due to information provided by ESPN's Keith Law.  Eddie is now providing the rankings exclusively to MLB Trade Rumors.  Today's snapshot covers the beginning of the 2008 season through July 11th of 2009.  So the rankings will obviously change over the next few months. 

Click here to see the latest Elias Rankings.

Cubs Interested In B.J. Ryan

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Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports that the Cubs have interest in the recently-released B.J. Ryan. The former Blue Jays closer will become a free agent when he clears waivers tomorrow, so any team will be able to pick him up for the major league minimum. The Blue Jays will pay the rest of Ryan's contract, some $15MM over the next year and a half.

The Cubs could send Ryan to the minors if they sign him, then bring him up as a lefty specialist if they believe he can be effective in the majors again. 

Heyman On Deadline Deals

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Jon Heyman of SI.com believes Roy Halladay will be traded before the end of the month. Here are some teams that could pursue him:

  • The Phillies have the right combination of money, prospects and need to go after Doc.
  • The Rangers probably don't have the money to take on the $14.25MM Halladay makes this year.  
  • It's hard to see the White Sox obtaining Halladay without surrendering Gordon Beckham in the deal. 
  • Heyman considers Beckham as close to untouchable as it gets, along with Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Brett Wallace and others.

Heyman lists over 30 trade candidates; here are some highlights:

  • The A's may have to hold onto Matt Holliday and hope for a pair of high draft picks after the season, as Holliday's shown little power recently.
  • The D'Backs aren't impressed by what the Brewers are willing to give up for Doug Davis, so they may try to keep him in Arizona.
  • The offers for Chad Qualls may be too tempting for the D'Backs to ignore.  
  • "Teams will call" about Cliff Lee.  
  • Jose Valverde would be a trade candidate but for one thing: "the 'Stros don't like to sell."

And finally, a note on Pedro Martinez: 

  • Pedro should decide on his future soon. The Phillies are the favorites, followed by the Rangers.  

Odds And Ends: Rolen, Gonzalez, Buchholz

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Time for more links as we wrap up the weekend after a rain-shortened Futures Game. Well really a rain-prolonged Futures Game, but here are the links either way…

  • As Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com points out, there was a time when GMs made a point of attending All-Star Games. This week, many will spend time with their families and message one another from a distance. 
  • Blue Jays Assistant GM Alex Anthopoulos says the Jays plan on keeping Scott Rolen around through the end of next season, when his contract's up, according to MLB.com's Brian Eller.
  • Yahoo's Tim Brown reports that Adrian Gonzalez will continue to be a Padres fan whether he plays in San Diego or not. Gonzalez seems to have confidence in the team's new CEO, Jeff Moorad. 
  • Clay Buchholz told WEEI.com's Alex Katz that he'll focus on process, not results when he pitches for the Red Sox in Toronto after the break.

Playoff Odds Update

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It's been a while since we last checked in on the playoff odds. Lots of teams say they expect to contend, but let's take a look at which teams have fallen out of the pennant race. These clubs have less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus. 

  • Reds – 4.5%
  • Astros – 4.4%
  • Blue Jays – 2.8%
  • Pirates - 0.9% 
  • Royals – 0.8% 
  • Indians – 0.5% 
  • Diamondbacks – 0.3%  
  • Athletics – 0.3% 
  • Orioles – 0.0%    
  • Padres – 0.0% 
  • Nationals – 0.0% 

None of these teams are close and eight of them have less than a 1% chance. It would take a surprisingly good second half for one of these clubs to make the playoffs, but that doesn't mean the Reds and Astros are sellers, since they're close enough to contention that firesales would be tough to justify to the fans.

Week In Review: 7/5/09 – 7/11/09

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J.P. Ricciardi's statement this week that the Blue Jays "would have to listen" to offers for Roy Halladay has caused rumors to run wild, which is the expected result when one of the best pitchers in the game is put on the table. Let's take a look back at the week:

  • I'll touch briefly on the Halladay rumors; there's too many to cover in one post. So far, we've heard that the Phillies are the early front-runners, but we also know that the Cardinals have a legitimate interest, and the trade talks have started up for the Rangersas well. And, surprisingly, don't rule out division rivals. The Jays could deal Halladay within the AL East, and both the Red Sox and Yankees are ok with Halladay. Keep in mind though, there's no guarantee that Halladay goes anywhere. Ricciardi would have to be overwhelmed to move him, meaning at least 2-3 of a team's top five prospects. The Erik Bedard and Dan Haren trades will likely be comparable.
  • Onto the trades for the week: the A's acquired Scott Hairston from the Padres for two minor league pitchers and a player to be named later. It sounds like the PTBNL is a pitcher with big league experience. Kevin Towers was "excited" about whoever it is. Hairston has turned himself into a productive player over the past couple seasons, and can help the A's in the outfield. However, given their current place in the standings, you have to wonder if this is only a precursor to a Matt Holliday trade.
  • In a puzzling move to say the least, the Royals dealt their #3 prospect, Danny Cortes, and another pitcher to the Mariners to acquire Yuniesky Betancourt. This trade has been widely lamented by Royals fans, and with good reason. Betancourt's numbers have plumetted since he signed long-term with the Mariners, and those same numbers suggest that he has deteriorated to one of the worst offensive players in baseball, to go along with a terrible glove. I don't understand the Royals' side of this trade at all. The Royals also acquired Ryan Freel this week.
  • The Braves and Mets swapped outfielders Jeff Francoeur and Ryan Church this week. I like this one for the Braves, given Church's ability to play center and his great start to the 2008 season. However, he's struggled ever since his collision last year with his now-teammate Yunel Escobar. Speaking of Escobar, the Braves aren't likely to move him, so those rumors can be put to rest.
  • The White Sox strengthened their bullpen by acquiring Tony Penafor minor leaguer Brandon Allen. Pena's been very reliable for the D'Backs, and is under team control through 2012. For now, this seems like a win-win deal.
  • The Blue Jays made a surprising move this week, when they released B.J. Ryan. Ryan has struggled tremendously this year, but is still owed $15MM. The Jays have a very deep bullpen, but despite that depth, I don't think many saw this move coming.
  • Teams looking for power can cross Adam Dunn off their midsummer wishlists. Mike Rizzo put it as plainly as he could: "We are not trading Adam Dunn."
  • There will still be plenty of moves to come - the Pirates are hoping to deal Adam LaRoche and are pushing hard to trade Freddy Sanchez. Where do these two end up?
  • The Phillies are in serious talks with Pedro Martinez, and it looks like Pedro may finally find a home in 2009. If the Phils do sign him, it won't dilute their interest in Halladay.

Buchholz Called Up, Scouted By Jays?

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WEEI.com's Alex Speier writes that the Red Sox will recall Clay Buchholz from Triple-A Pawtucket to make a start in Toronto following the All-Star Break. With two starters in the All-Star Game, Boston wants the ability to give Tim Wakefield and Josh Beckett extra rest following the break.

WEEI's Alex Katz confirmed that the Blue Jays had two scouts in attendance for Buccholz's last minor league start, in which he surrendered four earned runs to bring his season thus far to a 7-2 record with a 2.36 ERA.

Odds & Ends: Church, Yuniesky, Pirates

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A few links for the afternoon as the All-Star Break approaches:

  • Ryan Church has no animosity or hard feelings towards the Mets organization. He says that he's appreciative of Omar Minaya and everything that he has done for Church over his career. He's also excited to be playing with Chipper Jones. Says Church:
"I grew up in the '90s as a big Braves fan. I'll never tell him, but he was my favorite player," he said. "It's cool now to be playing with him."
  • Joe Posnanski continues to lament the recent acquisition of Yuniesky Betancourt by the Royals, stating that either the numbers are right, or the Royals are right. Posnanski's bet seems to be on the numbers.
  • MLB.com's Jen Langosch has some notes on the Pirates, including an update on Ian Snell who allowed one run on seven hits through six innings in his most recent Triple-A start. That outing lowers Snell's ERA to 0.45 since being demoted. We've heard Snell's names in trade rumors this year, and he appears to be taking some strides toward re-establishing his value. Langosch also mentions the two international signings that Mike wrote about here yesterday, and I feel obligated to give my vote to Dovydas Neverauskas for having the coolest name in baseball.

Price’s Latest: Red Sox, Orioles, Tigers

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Ed Price's Baseball Brunch column is up over at fanhouse.com. Let's take a look at the highlights:

  • Price names several amusing first-half awards, including the "Bg Hitter" award for Albert Pujols, in honor of Albert's mammoth home run that took out the "I" in the Big Mac Land sign at Busch Stadium.
  • The Red Sox's strategy as the deadline approaches is dependent on Mike Lowell's health. The Sox have looked at Garrett Atkins, but have found Colorado's asking price to be too much. Colorado apparently isn't impressed with Takashi Saito. If Lowell is to miss an extended period of time, Price writes that the Red Sox would have an easier time getting a first baseman and putting Kevin Youkilis at third.
  • The Orioles know they're sellers, and have good trade pieces in Aubrey Huff and Danys Baez. However, Andy MacPhail has said he wants his team to be competitive in the second half, given the September slides his team has seen the past two seasons. Price briefly speculates that Baez could intrigue the Twins.
  • The O's would have to be overwhelmed to move George Sherrill, and Jeremy Guthrie is no longer a trade candidate, with Koji Uehara ailing.
  • Huff may interest Detroit, who needs some left-handed help in the order. They'd like someone who could play in the outfield, however. Price says that the Tigers inquired on Adam Dunn, but the finances didn't line up.
  • The Rockies are in need of a quality setup man, as they've been using Joel Peralta and Matt Daley to get to Huston Street.
  • The rumors of Doug Davis going to Milwaukee have died down for now.
  • The Rays would like to upgrade in right field; they're currently using a platoon of Gabe Gross and Gabe Kapler.

Odds & Ends: Reds, Jays, Buchholz

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A couple odds and ends on a quiet Sunday…

  • MLB.com beat writer Mark Sheldon expects the Reds to "recalibrate their roster some for the second half." They have 13 pitchers on the roster and only want 12, and Dusty Baker has confirmed a position player will be added. Adam Rosales was called up today to fill a roster spot for Jay Bruce who fractured his wrist. Sheldon notes the club is down to five outfielders, if you count Jerry Hairston Jr.
  • The Jays will have two scouts watching Clay Buchholz pitch today. Don't read too much into it. The Jays appear to just be doing their homework, says TV/radio broadcaser Dan Hoard.

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