Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Pirates. Their commitments for 2010:
C – Ryan Doumit – $3.55MM
C – Jason Jaramillo – $400K
C/IF – Robinzon Diaz – $401K
1B/OF – Garrett Jones – $400K
2B – Delwyn Young – $406K
SS – Ronny Cedeno – $823K+
3B – Andy LaRoche – $414K
IF – Ramon Vazquez – $2MM
IF – Steve Pearce – $408K
IF – Brian Bixler – $404K
LF – Lastings Milledge – $452K
CF – Andrew McCutchen – $400K
RF – Brandon Moss – $415K
Other possibilities: 1B/C – Jeff Clement – $405K, 3B/OF – Neil Walker – $400K
SP – Paul Maholm – $4.5MM
SP – Zach Duke – $2.2MM+
SP – Ross Ohlendorf – $414K
SP – Charlie Morton – $405K
SP – Daniel McCutchen – $400K
Other rotation candidates: Jeff Karstens – $402K, SP – Kevin Hart – $408K, Jose Ascanio – $405K
RP – Matt Capps – $2.3MM+
RP – Jesse Chavez – $402K
RP – Evan Meek – $401K
RP – Joel Hanrahan – $420K
RP – Steven Jackson – $400K
RP – Phil Dumatrait – $402K
RP – Failed rotation candidate
Other commitments: Pedro Alvarez – $500K
Non-tender candidates: Tyler Yates – $1.3MM+, Craig Hansen – $825K+, Denny Bautista – $400K+, Chris Bootcheck – $600K+
Because of all the competition on this club, the above roster is just a rough projection for 2010. The Pirates entered the 2009 season with a $48.7MM payroll. My rough estimate has their 2010 commitment at about half that, before arbitration raises for Cedeno, Duke, and Capps. The payroll should still fall under $30MM.
In my opinion, the Pirates are taking the right approach to rebuilding under GM Neal Huntington. Huntington has a clear long-term focus, and isn't afraid to pull the trigger on a trade that will help the team in the future. Gone from the team's Opening Day lineup: Nyjer Morgan, Freddy Sanchez, Nate McLouth, Adam LaRoche, Jack Wilson, and John Grabow. Eric Hinske, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, and Sean Burnett were also traded.
The game's best prospects are almost always off-limits, but the Pirates have added a variety of quality young players. Since they don't have veterans clogging up starting jobs and payroll, there's been an opportunity for players like McCutchen, Jones, and Ohlendorf to emerge. Based on his recent history it would not be surprising if Huntington is willing to listen on Doumit, Maholm, and Capps this winter and next summer.
It's a boring analysis, but expect the Pirates to stay on course by mostly avoiding the free agent market, remaining open to trade ideas, and spending on the draft. 2009 was a year of transition as the veterans were sent packing. The team will continue sorting through its inventory in 2010; competing in 2011 does not seem out of reach.
Nationals Aim To Improve Bullpen
As the worst team in baseball, the Nationals have many potential ways to improve for 2010. We've already heard about their craving for better middle infield defense and a veteran starting pitcher. Today MLB.com's Bill Ladson learned of GM Mike Rizzo's plan to revamp the team's bullpen for next year.
Rizzo considers the bullpen a "major point of emphasis for the offseason." Ladson notes the fine work of Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard in 2009, but doesn't dig deeply into the Nats' plan for closer Mike MacDougal. It's been a strange year for MacDougal, who has 14 saves in 15 tries despite striking out only 25 and walking 32 in 44.6 innings. He did pitch legitimately well in August. MacDougal is under team control for 2010 as an arbitration-eligible player. Jeff Euston of Cot's Baseball Contracts suggested to me that he is in line for at least $3MM if the Nats tender him a contract.
Aside from the holdovers, Ladson believes Drew Storen could help the 2010 club. Storen was drafted tenth overall by the Nats in June and is on the fast track to the Majors.
Regarding the free agent market, I can't see why the Nationals would spend significant money. This year the Nats waited until March and signed Joe Beimel for a reasonable $2MM.
Ozzie Hopes To Have Kotsay Back
White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen would like to have outfielder/first baseman Mark Kotsay back for the 2010 season, according to MLB.com's Jesse Temple. Kotsay had positive words about a possible return, but admitted, "It's just kind of early to speculate on what lies ahead."
Kotsay, 34 in December, has a .264/.312/.384 line in 139 plate appearances for the Red Sox and White Sox this year. He can play first base and all three outfield positions. Kotsay has performed better since coming to Chicago (with cash) for Brian Anderson on July 28th. He dealt with shoulder, back, and calf injuries with the Red Sox before being designated for assignment four days prior to the trade. He'd signed a $1.5MM free agent deal with Boston on January 8th.
Free Agent Market: First Basemen
The free agent market for first basemen is lacking a monster bat, but there are some interesting names.
- Nick Johnson is one of the game's best at getting on base. His .421 OBP this year in 496 plate appearances for the Nationals and Marlins ranks fourth in baseball. Johnson, however, is equally well-known for his lengthy injury history. He's the one true OBP threat of the group – next we have Adam LaRoche at .350 and Russell Branyan at .347.
- Branyan is the top power source, with a .520 SLG in a career-high 505 plate appearances. He's really scuffled since July though. LaRoche is next with a .479 SLG for the Pirates, Red Sox, and Braves. Hank Blalock has 471 innings at first base this year, so he's in the discussion with a .466 SLG. The .278 OBP negates much of that. In that small (inconclusive) defensive sample, Blalock rated well defensively according to UZR/150.
- Carlos Delgado's work in 2008 and '09 stands with all of the above players, but he's missed most of this year due to hip surgery. Aubrey Huff and Jason Giambi were effective in '08 but haven't impressed this year.
- You won't find any top defenders in this group, aside from Doug Mientkiewicz. Guys like Chad Tracy, Ross Gload, and LaRoche won't kill you.
- If you're looking for youth, Blalock, LaRoche, and Tracy are in the 29-30 range.
- There are no Type A free agents here. Huff, Delgado, Johnson, and Fernando Tatis project as Type Bs.
- Troy Glaus might be a dark horse, minor league deal option. But he has only played 38 innings at first base in his career.
- Johnson, Branyan, and LaRoche should get decent, perhaps even multiyear contracts. Delgado, Blalock, and Huff might also be able to snag starting jobs at first base or DH.
Borderline Type A/B Free Agents
Per Eddie Bajek's latest Elias rankings, the following players are eligible for free agency after the season and are teetering on the borderline of Type A and B status:
- Mark DeRosa
- Octavio Dotel
- Chone Figgins
- Brandon Lyon
- Placido Polanco
Figgins projects as a Type A at the moment, while the other four are currently Bs. The September performance of these players could push them in either direction. It's hard to say which will be offered arbitration, though Figgins is a lock.
Elias Rankings Update
At the end of each season, The Elias Sports Bureau ranks all MLB players numerically based on a bunch of stats. Every player is categorized in one of five position groups and by league. The rankings cover a two-year time period. They are used to determine whether free agents are Type A, Type B, or neither. If you'd like a reminder on how draft pick compensation works, read up here.
Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings last year. Eddie's incredible work was made possible in large part due to information provided by ESPN's Keith Law. Eddie is now providing the rankings exclusively to MLB Trade Rumors. Today's snapshot covers the beginning of the 2008 season through September 6th, 2009. The rankings will change over the remainder of the season. Keep in mind that if players change leagues, they are ranked in their new league.
Click here to see the latest Elias Rankings.
Odds And Ends: Jeter, Pettitte, Griffey
All three of these potential Hall of Famers were on their current teams ten years ago…
- Bob Klapisch of FOX Sports says the Yankees are bracing themselves for the possibility that Derek Jeter will ask for a massive contract after next season. Klapisch wonders if Jeter could ask for $100MM over four years when negotiations begin.
- Andy Pettitte tells Jon Heyman of SI.com that he hasn't decided whether to return for another season after this one. The 37-year-old has a 4.10 ERA in 28 starts for the Yanks this year.
- MLB.com's Jim Street says Ken Griffey Jr.'s return to Seattle has been a complete success. We heard last week that Griffey would consider returning to the team next year.
Olney On Hardy, Rangers, Figgins
Everyone's predicting the market for Chone Figgins these days and ESPN.com's Buster Olney is no exception. Olney guesses that the Yankees will sign Figgins, who could patrol left field for the Bombers and fill in at other positions when needed. Here are the rest of Olney's rumors:
- Olney points out that J.J. Hardy, whose free agency the Brewers delayed, picked up 130 days of service time on the DL over the years. It all counts, though.
- Olney hears that there are now just three contenders to buy the Rangers.
- One talent evaluator suggests MLB could adopt first and second half winners to lessen the advantage big market teams have.
Padres Expect To Be “Pretty Good” Next Year
When the Padres won the NL West with an 82-80 record four years ago, the division was laughably weak. Now that the Dodgers, Rockies and Giants have improved, the NL West is home to three of the league's five best teams. The Diamondbacks should improve next year, so the division is no longer a joke, but that hasn't deterred Padres GM Kevin Towers.
"I think we might be pretty good next year," Towers told ESPN.com's Buster Olney. "I know that sounds pretty crazy."
Olney suggests the Padres will likely keep Adrian Gonzalez, whose 35 homers would appeal to many teams if the Padres decided to listen to trade offers. The Padres have improved pitching and, now that they're no longer responsible for Jake Peavy's contract, could be minor players in the free agent market.
Odds And Ends: Mets, Padilla, Cardinals
Derek Jeter could become the all-time Yankees hit leader today, but in the meantime, here are some links:
- Jim Bastian of The Journal reports that the Dodgers re-signed Jamie Hoffman just two days after designating him for assignment in a procedural move.
- As Ben Shpigel of the New York Times notes, Daniel Murphy could start at first base for the Mets next year. This could allow the team to spend on an outfielder, perhaps even Jason Bay or Matt Holliday.
- MLB.com's David Ely says Vicente Padilla has been more than serviceable since the Dodgers picked him up to bolster their rotation in late August.
- Yahoo's Jeff Passan says the Cardinals are the champions of the trade deadline. Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, Julio Lugo and John Smoltz have turned the Cards into a force.
- ESPN.com's Rob Neyer expects Jose Tabata to spend the next six years making the Yankees look foolish. The Pirates acquired Tabata in the Xavier Nady trade last summer.
- Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post gives Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd credit for the team's strong play.