Probable Type A Free Agents
For those of you who don't feel like digging through Eddie's latest Elias ranking projections, here's a list of free agents projected to snag Type A status. An asterisk means the player has a 2010 option.
Bobby Abreu
Jason Bay
Josh Beckett*
Rafael Betancourt
Orlando Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Jermaine Dye*
Scott Eyre
Chone Figgins
Troy Glaus
Mike Gonzalez
John Grabow
Kevin Gregg
Vladimir Guerrero
Rich Harden
LaTroy Hawkins
Trevor Hoffman
Matt Holliday
Orlando Hudson
John Lackey
Cliff Lee*
Felipe Lopez
Victor Martinez*
Bengie Molina
Darren Oliver
Magglio Ordonez*
Andy Pettitte
Manny Ramirez*
Marco Scutaro
Rafael Soriano
Billy Wagner*
Randy Wolf
Jose Valverde
You can forget about Beckett and Lee hitting the market, and Martinez is unlikely. Cabrera cannot be offered arbitration if he's a Type A, per the terms of his contract. That leaves us with 29 potential Type A free agents with the chance for draft pick compensation. Of course, to have a shot at two draft picks the team needs to offer arbitration. That's not happening for Glaus and several others. Click here for a refresher on draft pick compensation.
The Angels lead the way with five potential Type As. The Cubs, Dodgers, and Red Sox each have three (not counting Beckett).
Elias Rankings Update
At the end of each season, The Elias Sports Bureau ranks all MLB players numerically based on a bunch of stats. Every player is categorized in one of five position groups and by league. The rankings cover a two-year time period. They are used to determine whether free agents are Type A, Type B, or neither. If you'd like a reminder on how draft pick compensation works, read up here.
Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings last year. Eddie's incredible work was made possible in large part due to information provided by ESPN's Keith Law. Eddie is now providing the rankings exclusively to MLB Trade Rumors. Today's snapshot covers the beginning of the 2008 season through September 1st, 2009. The rankings will change over the remainder of the season. Keep in mind that if players change leagues, they are ranked in their new league.
Speaking of players who changed leagues, Eddie is not sure what ranking Jim Thome will garner in the NL. Thome was a Type A in the AL, but Eddie's best guess is that he will be neither Type A nor B in the NL. The catch is that there is no precedent for an NL player with no games played at any position. But if Thome is grouped with the NL's 1B/OF category, he'll fall below Type B status and draft pick compensation will not come into play. Also, Jose Contreras is now in the NL and is neither Type A nor B.
Click here to see the latest Elias Rankings.
Discussion: What Should Braves Do With Their Pitching Surplus?
Mark Bowman of MLB.com has an excellent rundown of the Braves' payroll going into 2010. He focuses on Tim Hudson, who had scouts from the Rockies and the Diamondbacks watching him make his return to the mound last night.
It would seem that the Braves have some decisions to make about their starting rotation going into next season. They currently have Hudson, Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson.
According to Bowman, the Braves have a few different options. They could pay Hudson's $1MM buyout and let him go. They could attempt to trade Vazquez for prospects. They could even trade Kawakami for financial relief, though the return for him would be less than what Vazquez would bring.
Bowman argues that if both Hudson and Vazquez stay with the Braves, Atlanta's rotation "would be deeper than any of the great ones it possessed during the 1990's." Do you agree? How should the Braves proceed?
Odds and Ends: Nomar, Astros, Kazmir
A few links to get the evening started…
- Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that the Phillies are still "mildly following" Nomar Garciaparra. Though Nomar would not be eligible to play in the postseason for Philadelphia, he might provide some depth down the stretch.
- Astros owner Drayton McLane "has fired more managers, general managers and coaches the last five years than any other owner in baseball," according to Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle. Justice posits that the axe might drop on someone new during the Astros' off day tomorrow.
- The Tampa Tribune's Marc Lancaster talked to Rays owner Stuart Sternberg, who argued that the team's trade of Scott Kazmir was "not a salary dump" but "a reallocation of resources."
Who Will Catch For The Brewers In 2010?
The Brewers face a tough decision about who to put behind the plate next year, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Veterans Jason Kendall and Mike Rivera have said they want the job, and prospect Angel Salome is an option as well.
Kendall, who has caught the majority of Milwaukee's games for the last two seasons and is approaching free agency, has made it clear that he would like to return next year. "This is my first choice and they know that," Kendall said. "I really, really love it here."
Meanwhile, Rivera feels like he is ready for full-time duty. He is about to turn 33, but will be eligible for arbitration for the first time after this season. He hit well in limited duty last year and has hit .241 with 2 homers in 83 at-bats this year.
Salome has battled injuries this year, but posted a.360/.415/.559 line at AA Huntsville as a 22-year-old last season. According to McCalvy, he "should be ready to make the leap" from prospect to pro next year.
McCalvy writes that the Brewers will not make any decisions until the offseason and that who will win the job is "anybody's guess."
Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals
First up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Nationals. Their commitments for 2010:
C – Jesus Flores $412K
C – Wil Nieves – $445K+
1B – Adam Dunn – $12MM
2B – Alberto Gonzalez – $400K
SS – Cristian Guzman – $8MM
3B – Ryan Zimmerman – $6.25MM
IF/OF – Willie Harris – $1.5MM
IF – Pete Orr – $600K+
LF – Josh Willingham – $2.95MM+
CF – Nyjer Morgan – $412K
RF – Elijah Dukes – $412K
OF – Justin Maxwell – $400K
OF –
SP – John Lannan – $424K
SP – Scott Olsen – $2.8MM+
SP – Craig Stammen – $400K
SP – Garrett Mock – $400K
SP – J.D. Martin – $400K
Other rotation candidates: Shairon Martis, Ross Detwiler, Collin Balester
RP – Mike MacDougal – $2.65MM+
RP – Saul Rivera – $475K+
RP – Jason Bergmann – $439K+
RP – Sean Burnett – $409K+
RP – Tyler Clippard – $400K
RP –
RP -
Other commitments: Austin Kearns – $1MM buyout, Stephen Strasburg – $400K plus portion of signing bonus
Non-tender candidates: Olsen
The Nationals entered 2009 with a $60MM payroll. Their 2010 commitments come to about $44MM plus arbitration raises to Willingham, MacDougal, and others. The Nats should have some cash to work with.
Now that Mike Rizzo is officially the team's GM, he can formulate a long-term plan for the organization. The Nats seem to be going for the "rebuilding but respectable" route, given the signing of Dunn, acquisition of Willingham, and other attempted moves. The Royals signed Jose Guillen and Gil Meche in recent years under that type of plan. The Pirates, on the other hand, have avoided spending big free agent bucks.
MLB.com's Bill Ladson learned that the Nats intend to add a veteran presence to their inexperienced pitching staff this winter. Low-cost options abound in the free agent market, and I like the idea. A call to Tom Glavine could make sense.
The Nationals seem to have a long road ahead. They're building around a core of Zimmerman and Strasburg; who else will star on the next good Washington club? Promising righty Jordan Zimmermann went down with Tommy John surgery. Morgan, Dukes, and Lannan might be productive players for a while. But the farm system remains unimpressive, so the Nationals will be bad for the next several years unless they decide to double the payroll.
That leads me to ask: should the Nationals trade Ryan Zimmerman? While he is the face of the franchise, his value is currently very high and he is signed through 2013. Trading him could cause that farm system ranking to improve in a hurry. To a lesser extent, Dunn, Willingham, and Lannan could bring in younger talent.
Discussion: NL Rookie Of The Year
Yesterday's AL Rookie of the Year discussion post generated a ton of discussion. Today let's get your thoughts on the NL candidates.
Names likely to be in the mix: Andrew McCutchen, Garrett Jones, Chris Coghlan, Dexter Fowler, Everth Cabrera, Casey McGehee, Ryan Roberts, Will Venable, Colby Rasmus, Gerardo Parra, Jake Fox, Ryan Hanigan, Chris Dickerson, J.A. Happ, Randy Wells, Tommy Hanson, Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso, Kenshin Kawakami, Jordan Zimmermann, Brian Sanches, Dan Meyer, and Luke Gregerson. Here's a look at the names we were considering back in April, by the way. Jones, Coghlan, Happ, and Wells were not top contenders at that point.
Recent NL ROY winners: Geovany Soto, Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Howard.
Nationals Acquire Victor Garate To Complete Belliard Trade
The Nationals acquired Double A lefty reliever Victor Garate to complete the August 30th Ronnie Belliard trade, according to Pete McElroy of MASN. The Nats already received A-ball pitcher Luis Garcia in the deal.
Garate, 25 later this month, came to the Dodgers in '07 from the Astros via the Rule 5 draft. Baseball America wrote in this year's Handbook that he "projects as a poor man's Brian Fuentes." Garate must be thrilled with the trade, as he'll move quickly up the ladder in the Nationals' bullpen.
Athletics Claim Jon Meloan
The Athletics claimed 25 year-old righty Jon Meloan off waivers from the Pirates, according to CSN Bay Area (via Twitter). The A's are Meloan's fourth club this year, after he bounced around from the Indians to the Rays to the Pirates. And last year he went from the Dodgers to the Tribe in the Casey Blake deal. At three different Triple A stops this year he compiled a 4.57 ERA with 60 strikeouts and 28 walks in 65 innings. Meloan was considered a "potential power set-up man" for the Dodgers by Baseball America a few years ago.
Heyman On Dye, Felix, Cameron
The latest from SI's Jon Heyman…
- Heyman's sources say the Giants "made no overtures" to acquire Chicago outfielder Jermaine Dye, who Sox GM Ken Williams made available a few days ago. Dye is hitting .260/.339/.474 in 495 plate appearances on the season after a terrible August.
- Heyman talked to "competing execs" who believe the Mariners will try hard to sign young ace Felix Hernandez to an extension during the offseason. If that completely fails then we might hear trade rumors. Hernandez, 24 in April, has a 2.77 ERA and 179 strikeouts in 185.3 innings this year. He's under team control through 2011. Six teams made offers for Felix at the trade deadline this year, including the Tigers, Red Sox, and Rays.
- Three teams expressed interest in Brewers center fielder Mike Cameron, and Heyman isn't sure why Doug Melvin held onto him. The Brewers could've potentially saved $2MM.
- Heyman's heard the initial bids to buy the Rangers have been weak.